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Entries in uranium enrichment (7)

Sunday
Aug292010

UPDATED Iran: Tehran Declares Readiness for Nuclear Talks?

UPDATE 29 August: A flurry of comments out of Tehran today on the uranium enrichment discussions indicate Iran may be opening the door for direct talks with Washington and other countries....

Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani --- in a shift from his comments last Sunday that Iran would negotiate with anyone in the world except the US --- has said that the country has never ruled out talks with the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Russia, China, Germany) or the Vienna Group (the US, Russia, France, and the International Atomic Energy Agency).

Larijani insisted, "We have never ruled out talks, but sometime they left the table and showed misconduct," presumably a reference to the breakdown of discussions after Iran met the 5+1 in Geneva last October.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast also said Tehran is ready for discussions: "We have expressed our readiness for talks with Vienna Group and we believe the way is paved for talks to start: Talks can be started sooner if they specify details and we reach an agreement on place and date of the negotiations."

However, Mehmanparast added comments that muddled the apparent openness to talks:

If the US seriously seeks to revive relations with Iran, it should make changes in its attitude. Washington should prove that it will never repeat previous mistakes and will not pursue misguided and hostile policies towards the Iranian nation. We should sense a maturity in remarks and attitude of US officials and they should accept that rights of nations must be respected....There is no reason to prepare the grounds for establishing relations at the time the US attacks other countries, violates rights of nations and sees its interests in war and massacre....Such conduct will not work toward a country like Iran.



Iranian media are highlighting Thursday's statement by US State Department spokesman P J Crowley,
"We are hopeful that the constructive meetings, both at the IAEA and with the P5+1, can be set up in the next few weeks."


---
ORIGINAL STORY (27 August): EA staff have been in the midst of a debate over Iran's approach to uranium enrichment talks with the US as part of the "5+1" (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia). After a series of statements last week by Iranian officials, including the Supreme Leader, the President, and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, the central question has been: is there a unified voice coming out of Tehran on whether Iran will pursue discussions and, if so, will there be any pre-conditions?

Yesterday, we noted the latest public statement, in which Iran's head of atomic energy proposed a joint consortium with Russia for fuel for the Bushehr nuclear reactor, and we looked to wider significance:
The presentation is that Iran is a responsible, low-enriching state, working under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency and with the help of Russia. In essence, it is a proposal to the Western powers of what a nuclear Iran would look like if sanctions were eased and/or concessions were made.

Salehi’s statement is therefore much more than a proposed arrangement for Bushehr and other plants. It is a challenge to Russia to endorse this vision of Iran’s nuclear future, giving Moscow the opportunity to serve as a broker between Iran and the West.

An EA correspondent advances the discussion this morning:
Ayatollah Khamenei has a range of people who have his ear and whose opinion he is willing to listen to. He hears them all, makes his assessments, sees what they have to offer.

Here we have Salehi with his pragmatic, nuclear technician's world view. If the West can come to terms with that, Khamenei would then appraise the relative benefits of making an approach, judging the extent to which he sees Iran's interests being served. Once he makes a decision, he can bring in political capital to bear ensure it is accepted.

The Supreme Leader is not omnipotent. Instead, his political calculations must use the instincts, knowledge and experience, which he has gained in more than 20 years in power-broking, in order to manage the different and conflicting power centres in Iran with the ultimate aim of maintaining his central position. That is something which he has been pretty successful at so far.

Of course, the divisions within the conservative establishment are in contrast with the entirely mythological paradigm of political unity, which did not even hold during the Khomeini period. The different threads running through the fabric of the conservatives should be seen as threads that Khamenei can pull --- or refuse to pull --- depending on how he reads the situation. In that sense his title of "rahbar" can be read in the sense of "conductor", as in the conductor of an orchestra.

This time last year Ahmadinejad appeared eager for talks and the rest of the conservatives shot him down. At that time Khamenei either allowed this to happen a) because he had a better idea or b) because he actually desired that the President receive a put down or c) he could not risk preventing it because of the high cost in political capital or d) a bit of all of the above.

This year I think we can see clearly that he is calling for a ceasefire in the intra-conservative in-fighting before the international dimension is re-opened

So I didn't read Khamenei's speech of 18 August in the way that Scott Lucas read it [as a rejection of discussions with the US in the near-future]. I think it was quite natural that Khamenei refrain from expend valuable political capital at this point by appearing conducive to talks. In this critical situation, it is logical for him to hold himself above the fray and fall back on familiar rhetorical ground. He can play "hard to get" while allowing his carefully vetted ambassadors to act as intermediaries.

We probably should not read too much into what Khamenei says on the international issue at the moment. The domestic scene on the other hand, that's a different story....
Saturday
Aug282010

Iran: Obama Rejects a Public "Red Line" on Nuclear Capability (Porter)

Gareth Porter writes for Inter Press Service:

President Barack Obama's refusal in a White House briefing earlier this month to announce a "red line" in regard to the Iran nuclear programme represented another in a series of rebuffs of pressure from Defence Secretary Robert Gates for a statement that the United States will not accept Tehran's existing stocks of low enriched uranium.

The Obama rebuff climaxed a months-long internal debate between Obama and Gates over the "breakout capability" issue which surfaced in the news media last April.

Iran Special: The Supreme Leader and One Voice on Nuclear Talks with US?


Gates has been arguing that Iran could turn its existing stock of low enriched uranium (LEU) into a capability to build a nuclear weapon secretly by using covert enrichment sites and undeclared sources of uranium.

That Gates argument implies that the only way to prevent Iran having enough bomb-grade uranium for nuclear weapons is to insist that Iran must give up most of its existing stock of LEU, which could be converted into enough bomb-grade uranium for one bomb.

But Obama has publicly rejected the idea that Iran's existing stock of LEU represents a breakout capability on more than one occasion. He has stated that Iran would have to make an overt move to have a "breakout capability" that would signal its intention to have a nuclear weapon.

Obama's most recent rebuff of the Gates position came in the briefing he gave to a select group of journalists Aug. 4.

Peter David of The Economist, who attended the Aug. 4 briefing, was the only journalist to note that Obama indicated to the journalists that he was not ready to lay down any public red lines "at this point". Instead, Obama said it was important to set out for the Iranians a clear set of steps that the U.S. would accept as proof that the regime was not pursuing a bomb.

Obama appeared to suggest that there are ways for Iran to demonstrate its intent not to build a nuclear bomb other than ending all enrichment and reducing its stock of low enriched uranium to a desired level.

Iran denies any intention of making nuclear weapons, but has made no secret that it wants to have enough low enriched uranium to convince potential adversaries that it has that option.

At a 2005 dinner in Tehran, Hassan Rowhani, then secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, told George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace that Iran didn't need a nuclear weapon, as long as it had the "mastery of the fuel cycle" as a deterrent to external aggression.

Gates raised the issue of the Iranian ability to achieve a breakout capability in a three-page memorandum addressed to national security adviser Jim Jones in January 2010, as first reported in the New York Times Apr. 18.

In reporting the Gates memo, David E. Sanger of the New York Times wrote, "Mr. Gates's memo appears to reflect concerns in the upper echelons of the Pentagon and the military that the White House did not have a well-prepared series of alternatives in place in case all the diplomatic steps finally failed."

In the statement issued on the memo Apr. 18, Gates said it "identified next steps in our defense planning process where further interagency discussion and policy decisions would be needed in the months and weeks ahead."

The Sanger article appeared eight days after differences between Obama and Gates over the Iranian breakout capability issue had surfaced publicly in April....

Thus far the Obama administration has not given emphasis to the threat of U.S. attack on Iran. Instead it has sought to use the threat of an Israeli attack on Iran as leverage, even as it warns the Israelis privately not to attempt such an attack.

Read full article....
Thursday
Aug262010

The Latest from Iran (26 August): Ahmadinejad v. "Seditionists"

2115 GMT: Economic Number of the Day. Deutsche Welle reports that the Ahmadinejad Government is now more than $140 billion in debt.

2010 GMT: Family Protection. Back to our first item of the day....

The Los Angeles Times offers an overview of the Family Protection Bill currently being considered by the Parliament, with Iranians offering a range of views on its provisions. The legislation has prompted criticism because of its provisions on the registration of temporary marriage (rejected yesterday by the Majlis) and on relaxing the conditions on polygamy.

2005 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Safe World for Women has published a special on human rights activists Shiva Nazar Ahari, detained since July 2009 and facing a possible death sentence on the charge of "moharab" (war against God).

Kurdish journalist Ejlal Qavami has been freed from interrogation.

1845 GMT: Parliament v. Government. MP Elyas Naderan, a leading critic of the Government, is at it again: he claims there is no serious will to implement subsidy cuts and says the Government is offering no information on implementation.

Members of Parliament for Zanjan have protested the dismissal of the head of Zanjan University, Professor Yousef Sobouti (see 0625 GMT).

Iran Propaganda Special: US Soldiers, Bitter Chocolate, & the Prophet Muhammad
Iran: Is President’s Chief of Staff Rahim-Mashai Taking On Foreign Policy?
The Latest from Iran (25 August): Unity?


1840 GMT: A Basij Empire? According to Peyke Iran, the head of the Basij paramilitary, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, has offered a vision of 7000 new Basiji bases: "Today we have 3.5 million active Basij; we must raise it to 20 million."

1830 GMT: Ahmadinejad Tough Talk. Rooz Online, drawing from Iranian sources, claims that the President has been dishing out critical comments in meetings: he called former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and former Presidential candidate Nategh Nouri "mofsed" (rotten people) and said that "seditionists" have not been dealt with yet.

1815 GMT: The President's Man Turns? Mehdi Kalhor, a former advisor to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has harshly criticised the President in a lengthy interview with Khabar Online.

Kalhor talked about Ahmadinejad's "wrong urban planning", including "forced migration" from Tehran, mis-management of the Mehr Housing Project, with the wasting of money by the Revolutionary Guard, and subsidy cuts.

Kalhor brought up the post-election conflict: "We have to find a sensible solution for many of last year's problems; there is still fire under the ashes." And he added this provocative comment about the President's loyalties: "I was insulted many times instead of [Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim] Mashai."

1800 GMT: Is This Iran's Nuclear Strategy? Some thoughts on the latest statement from Iran's head of atomic energy, Ali Akbar Salehi, proposing a joint consortium with Russia for production of fuel for the Bushehr nuclear plant (see 0835 GMT):

With the possibility of talks with the "5+1" (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China) this autumn, it appears Iran is playing down its need to enrich uranium to 20%, stressing instead the cooperation with Russia on low-level nuclear enrichment for power stations as well as finding domestic sources of uranium for an expanding system of nuclear energy production.

The presentation is that Iran is a responsible, low-enriching state, working under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency and with the help of Russia. In essence, it is a proposal to the Western powers of what a nuclear Iran would look like if sanctions were eased and/or concessions were made.

Salehi's statement is therefore much more than a proposed arrangement for Bushehr and other plants. It is a challenge to Russia to endorse this vision of Iran's nuclear future, giving Moscow the opportunity to serve as a broker between Iran and the West.

1555 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Turkey's Industry and Trade Minister Nihat Ergun has said that joint projects with Iran will continue despite United Nations and United States sanctions on Tehran.

1545 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Radio Zamaneh has more on the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front's statement of concern about the return to detention of senior member Mostafa Tajzadeh and journalist/filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad.

The IIPF calls describes the blackout of information since Tajzadeh and Nourizad were summoned back to prison 11 and 8 days ago, respectively, as the “apex of lawlessness of the cruel-hearted jailors". The organisation condemned the violence against political prisoners and said that this will lead to the “fall of the Islamic Republic".

1500 GMT: Freedom Corner. Journalist and women's rights activist Mahboubeh Abbasgholizadeh and Mexican journalist Pedro Matías Arrazola have won Germany's Johann Philipp Palm Prize for freedom of expression and of the press.

1240 GMT: Missiles and Bombs. Edward Yeranian of Voice of America has a look at Iran's military posing, including yesterday's firing of a new version of a medium-range missile. EA makes an appearance by being just a bit cynical about the Tehran show of big muscles:
It is the other side of the threat narrative, that just as you get these whipped up stories in the United States about 'there could well be an Israeli attack on Iran,' that this is how Iran strikes back. If you are going to promote the fact that Tehran might be attacked, (Iran) will promote the fact that (it) can defend (itself).

And we also make the inconvenient --- well, inconvenient for some in the Government --- linkage to internal matters: "Facing all types of political pressure within the system, and we are not just talking about pressure from the (opposition) Green Movement or reformists, but pressure from other conservatives and from clerics within the system, that you want to present this image of authority, this image of control."

And for some more threat chatter, over to Reuters:
Iran has stockpiled enough low-enriched uranium for 1-2 nuclear arms but it would not make sense for it to cross the bomb-making threshold with only this amount, a former top U.N. nuclear official was quoted as saying.

In unusual public remarks about Iran's disputed nuclear programme Olli Heinonen, the former chief of U.N. nuclear inspections worldwide, told Le Monde newspaper that Iran's uranium reserve still represented a "threat."

0900 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Britain's leading publication on universities, Times Higher Education, picks up the story --- reported in EA on 19 August --- that Durham University has gone public with its concern over the health and situation of detained Ph.D. student Ehsan Abdoh-Tabrizi, writing an open letter to the Iranian Ambassador to Britain.

The university, in consultation with Abdoh-Tabrizi, had pursued the case quietly since the student was detained during a visit to Iran last December. However, it had grown frustrated with a lack of response from Iranian officials to its correspondence.

0855 GMT: One Way Around the Sanctions? Press TV reports that creditors of Daewoo Electronics, South Korea's third-largest electronics firm, have reached a deal to sell the company to Iranian home appliance maker Entekhab Industrial Group.

South Korea recently joined international sanctions against Tehran.

0850 GMT: The Election "Coup"? Green Correspondents carries a lengthy statement by reformist politician Ali Shakouri-Rad about the complaint brought by seven of his colleagues --- all in detention --- over alleged military interference before and after the 2009 Presidential election. Shakouri-Rad reviews the audio of the Revolutionary Guard commander outlining the military's tactics to suppress oppression.

0845 GMT: Fashion Watch. HRANA claims that Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has said that "bad hijab" is a crime.

0835 GMT: A Nuclear Solution? Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, has said that Tehran has made a proposal to Russia for joint production of nuclear fuel for the Russian-built Bushehr plant: "We have made a proposal to Russia for the creation of a consortium, licensed by that country, to do part of the work in Russia and part of it in Iran. Moscow is studying this offer."

0830 GMT: MediaWatch. William Yong and Robert Worth of The New York Times pick up on the formal order from the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance barring media from mentioning Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mehdi Karroubi by name.

Iraj Jamshidi, the editor of the recently banned newspaper Asia, tells them, “They [the Iranian Government] have already made it clear indirectly that news about these figures is banned,” said Under the current climate, no one dares to interview Mr. Moussavi or Mr. Karroubi. They want them to be forgotten.”

Interestingly, Yong and Worth tuck away in the story the news --- which may be far more politically important --- that Presidential aide and former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi is one of the three officials suspended for connections to the Kahrizak Prison abuses.

0818 GMT: Tough Talk Today (Sedition and World War II Edition). Press TV, quoting Fars News, gets to the press conference of Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi that we noted yesterday.

The "highlight" is Moslehi's assurance from his imagination, backing up the magic figure put out by Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, of a US-Saudi backing of opposition figures for "regime change": "This issue is true. A fund of over even one billion dollars can be imagined.

Moslehi then gave his proof: "We have found clear clues about foreign support for the leaders of sedition. [Iranian state media have been ordered not to refer to Mir Housavi Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami by name: thus "leaders of sedition.] For example, a man who collected news for the leaders of sedition was arrested and confessed to receiving aid from the CIA intelligence services." Another person who has fled the country used to write statements for the sedition leaders, he continued: "The individual has acknowledged receiving support from intelligence services."

But, Moslehi assured, there was really nothing to worry about: wise and timely measures adopted by Iran's security forces had thwarted all the plots.

Press TV also features an attempt by Iranian officials, reaching back to World War II, to get some of that $1 billion from its foes: "Vice-President for Parliamentary Affairs Mohammad-Reza Mir-Tajeddini said Wednesday that Iran sought to demand compensation since it sustained heavy damages despite its neutrality in the war....'More than 4,000 documents have been prepared and we are compiling more on the issue,' he went on to say".

0635 GMT: Cartoon of Day. Nikahang Kowsar, in Rooz Online, portrays --- with the help of the image of Mir Hossein Mousavi --- the Iranian regime's model of national reconciliation.



0630 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kurdish author and civil rights activist Behzad Kurdestani has been detained. The reason for arrest is unknown.

0625 GMT: Academic Purge. Deutsche Welle offers an overview of Government pressure on academic officials, claiming more than 20 university presidents have been dismissed in recent months in a "purification" of academia.

Mehdi Karroubi has protested the dismissal of Professor Yousef Sobouti, the President of Zanjan University. Sobouti's removal brought vocal protests by Zanjan students earlier this week.

0615 GMT: Story of the Day: Revolutionary Guard and Ministry of Intelligence Fight It Out....

Rah-e-Sabz claims that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps had installed monitoring systems in a seven-story building frequented by high-ranking politicians.

Last week some of the politicians detected the surveillance and, unaware of who carried it out, asked the Ministry of Intelligence to check the building. The Ministry denied responsibility and sent technical specialists, who inevitably discovered many IRGC cameras and microphones. As the specialists were leaving, they were accosted by a group of Revolutionary Guard. A fight followed, with guns even being drawn.

Rah-e-Sabz claims that the order for surveillance was given by Hossein Taeb, the chief of the IRGC's Intelligence Bureau. It adds that one of the missions was to gather information on Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, who has fallen out of favour with the Supreme Leader. The IRGC are allegedly sending reports directly to Ayatollah Khamenei.

0555 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Massoud Shafiee, the lawyer for three Americans --- Sarah Shourd, Joshua Fattal and Shane Bauer --- arrested in July 2009 when they walked across the Iraq-Iran border, has written Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi to request review of the case, in part of Shourd's deteriorating health: “I told the authorities in charge of this case that this woman is sick and has an acute gynecological illness, asking them to at least allow her to be transferred to the the Swiss Embassy until her trial time, which of course they turned down."

Shafiee said, “The charge of espionage is unwarranted" against his clients; however, even "in the impossible event that my clients were guilty of the charge of espionage, the punishment for this charge is one year in prison".

The lawyer added that the three Americans have not had any interrogation sessions during the past six to seven months.

The mother of Sarah Shourd has asked concerned people to write Iranian authorities to press for the release of the detainees. President Adbullah Wade of Senegal, who is also chairman of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, added his voice to those calling for the freeing of the trio.

0545 GMT: Family Protection. Straight into the news this morning....

The Parliament has rejected one of the provisions of the Family Protection Bill, which has been heatedly opposed by women's rights groups and many other activists. Article 21 for legal registration of "temporary marriages" was rejected with only 45 of 290 MPs voted for it.

The vote on Article 23, which makes it easier for men to pursue polygamy by dismissing the current conditions for the first wife’s consent and for proof of financial means, is still ahead.
Monday
Aug232010

The Latest from Iran (23 August): Political Cease-fire?

1830 GMT: Shh, Don't Mention the Sanctions. In an interview with former President Abulhassan Banisadr, Deutsche Welle refers to two directives from Iran's Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance. One banning newspapers from printing pictures and news of opposition figures has already been mentioned (see 0919 GMT).

The other is new to us: Iranian media have apparently been told to make no mention of the effects of sanctions.

NEW Iran Document: Interview with Detained Filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad
NEW Iran Special: Have Ahmadinejad and Ali Larijani Kissed and Made Up?
Iran: Today’s Shiny Object for Media? Why, It’s an Ambassador-of-Death Drone Bomber!
The Latest from Iran (22 August): Ahmadinejad Aide Mortazavi Suspended?


1800 GMT: The President's Men. Fars News is now carrying the story of the suspension of three officials over the Kahrizak Prison abuses, but does not name any of them, including Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi.

1745 GMT: MediaWatch (cont.). Thomas Erdbrink, writing in The Washington Post, is the first "Western" reporter to name Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi as one of the three officials suspended for alleged connections with post-election Kahrizak Prison abuses. Erdbrink quotes human rights lawyer Saleh Nikbakht, "Mortazavi is among them, and now that he no longer has judicial immunity, he could face trial."

And The Financial Times is clearly on a roll with its coverage of the in-fighting. Having noted the Supreme Leader's intervention on Wednesday (see 1735 GMT), the newspaper also features Najmeh Bozorgmehr's article "Shia Schism Deepens Ahmadi-Nejad's Woes": "The infighting between Iran’s fundamentalists has deepened the gulf between supporters and opponents of President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad."

1735 GMT: MediaWatch on The President's Men. Credit to Reuters for picking up on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's appointment of his chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, as one of his four "special representatives" for foreign policy --- Rahim-Mashai's responsibility will be the Near East --- and for putting that in the context of political battles within the establishment.

Not so sure, however, that Reuters' snap conclusion is on the mark: "[This suggests] for now that for now [Ahmadinejad] may have the upper hand over the critics." (Someone might want to consult Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.)

The Financial Times, belatedly but interestingly, notes the Supreme Leader's intervention last Wednesday and frames it as "Ayatollah Warns Bickering Politicians". The reporter, Monavar Khalaj, picks out this extract from Ayatollah Khamenei's statements, “I gave a serious warning to the officials not to make their differences public....Unity and solidarity among the country’s officials is a religious duty and the intentional rejection [of unity] is, especially in the upper echelon, against religious teachings.”

1720 GMT: Baby Basij. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, drawing from Aftab News, reports that female commander of the Basij militia, Zohreh Abbasi, has said that her unit has introduced a special program that allows baby girls to be registered as members of the force and receive training.

Abbasi said that, in the past six years, 23 baby girls had been trained as Basij members through "Koranic, cultural, educational, and military" classes.

"Basij mothers register their baby girls 40 days after they were born at the Hossein Haj Mousaee unit by presenting documents and IDs," Abbasi said. She declared that two babies have recently been born and  work is under way to prepare a dossiers for the new arrivals to enrol them in the special program.

1715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Detainees at Rajai Shahr Prison written to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, asking him to support human rights and labour activism.

1450 GMT: Energy Squeeze. Nabucco Gas Pipeline International GmbH, the company behind the amibitious Asia to Europe "gas bridge", will supply Europe through links to Turkey’s borders with Georgia and Iraq, rejecting a connection to the Turkish-Iranian border. Nabucco said the shareholders' decision was “due to the current political situation".

1335 GMT: MediaWatch (President's Man Edition). Almost 24 hours after the suspension of Ahmadinejad aide and former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi from his post because of alleged links to the Kahrizak Prison abuses, non-Iranian media --- like their counterparts in Tehran --- are not providing a name. The BBC, following the lead of the Associated Press, say only that "Iran has suspended three judicial officers".

1315 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Persian2English reports that Amnesty International and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands have expressed concern over the possibility of a death sentence for Zahra Bahrami, an Iranian-Dutch citizen arrested in Iran after the Ashura protests of 27 December.

1245 GMT: Tough Talk Today. Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, the Revolutionary Guard's Navy Commander, says Iran's missile-launching vessels are the best in the world for speed and power. “American warships currently have a maximum speed of 31 knots while Iranian vessels can travel twice as fast on average,” Fadavi said at a ceremony to open production lines for domestically-built Zolfaghar and Seraj craft.

1100 GMT: The Nuclear Front. Yesterday we noted, from a paragraph in a New York Times article on the Bushehr nuclear plant, the significant announcement that "Russia would provide Iran with iodine and molybdenum, nuclear isotopes used in medicine" and asked, "Will Iran withdraw its demand that it be allowed to enrich uranium to 20%, at least while discussions proceed on a long-term deal over the nuclear programme? And is Washington up-to-speed and supportive of the Russian move?"

An EA source offers an answer, noting this statement from the head of Iran's nuclear enrichment programme, Ali Akbar Salehi:
We will go as far as our needs are met. So we have no intention to proceed forever for enriching [uranium] to 20%, although it is our right according to the NPT [Non-Proliferation Treaty] and the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] statute to enrich uranium to any percentage that is needed for peaceful uses in nuclear energy. But this does not mean that we shall do so. We only embarked on 20% because of the conditions that were imposed on us. I reiterate that we will go as far as our needs are met.

Our source comments, "Seems to me that Iran is gearing up to offer this as a bargaining chip."

0919 GMT: Blackout in the Newspapers. Daneshjoo News publishes a document which it claims is a Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance order barring the names and pictures of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami from newspapers.

0918 GMT: Silence in the Theatre. Voice of America offers an overview of new restrictions by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance on Iran's theatre.

0915 GMT: We have published a separate feature: journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad, just before returning to prison last week, posted his comments in an interview for his website.

0739 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Jila Bani Yaghoub, the wife of journalist Bahman Ahmadi Amoui, one of 17 detainees who recently went on hunger strike in Evin Prison, has offered an update on her blog.

Bani Yaghoub says the hunger strikers, who ended their fast last week, are "weakened" but in excellent spirits. She claims that, when they were finally returned to the general ward --- Amoui was one of the last three prisoners to be let out of solitary confinement --- they knew already about the international "echo" of their protest.

0735 GMT: Cleric Stands Tough. Following yet another attempt by a crowd to intimidate him by gathering outside the Shiraz mosque where he presides, Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib has warned "those who meet clandestinely to attack Qoba Mosque again". He said that he is interpreting the Qu'ran in mosque, and all that his followers want is justice and implementation the Constitution.

0725 GMT: The Supreme Leader and the Students. More on Ayatollah Khamenei's three-hour meeting with student represenatives on Sunday....

The Supreme Leader declared, "I am united with all those who follow principles, but others are outside" the Iranian system. He added, "We must not eliminate people with weak religious belief on pretext of purifying society."

Khamenei admitted --- interestingly, in light of yesterday's news about the suspension of three officials --- that procedure in the Kahrizak abuse case had been slow.

0650 GMT: An Ahmadinejad-Ali Larijani Deal? Really?

Already EA correspondents are moving beyond the public face of a reconciliation between the President and the Speaker of Parliament --- considered in our special analysis this morning --- and the notion of a resolution between the Majlis and the Government is far from clear-cut.

First, the Ahmadinejad meeting with Parliament that preceded the press conference with Larijani....

The President, attending with Minister of Agriculture Sadegh Khalilian (who is under some pressure from the Majlis) and Minister of Economy Shamsoddin Hosseini, welcomed the monthly discussions. Then the questions began on topics which have been long-standing and growing sources of dispute: privatisation, proper implementation of laws, cultural problems (hijab), and the possible impeachment of Khalilian.

That in itself was a bit of a climb-down for Ahmadinejad, who had balked at given an account of his meetings, but it cut off an initiative by some MPs for formal questioning of the President. This, as well as the Supreme Leader's intervention on Wednesday, lay behind the good-news statements that followed the meeting: Ali Larijani said the Majlis has made the first step for unity of powers, while Ahmadinejad declared, "If you make good laws, the Government will implement them."

Whether that reconcililation holds is another issue. In the meeting, Ahmadinejad faced challenges, such as Mohammad Ebrahim Nekounam insisting on the Government's "duty" to implement Majlis legislation and Gholam-Ali Hadad Adel insisting that the President's enforcement of the "hijab and chastity project" is absolutely necessary. (As always, make what you will of the fact that this description is appearing in Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani.)

And there are signals of persistence, if not defiance, from each side. The President has given his Chief of Staff --- Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai --- a prime target for the criticisms of conservative MPs --- yet another post, appointing him as special representative for the Near East. (There have also been appointments for Asia, the Caspian Sea area, and Afghanistan.)

From the Parliamentary side, Mohammad Karami-Rad said that a meeting with Minister of Agriculture Khalilian, postponed because of Wednesday's discussions with the Supreme Leader, will take place and the Majlis will proceed with moves for impeachment.

0640 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Persian2English publishes a letter from Sepideh Pooraghaiee, a friend and colleague of Shiva Nazar Ahari, about the deatined human rights activist and journalist:
Shiva Nazar Ahari has acted very distinguishably throughout the years. She never allowed intimidations and threats to turn into an impenetrable dam against her sacred efforts. Along with her bravery and clarity, she also was calm, patient and hopeful. She never expected to be praised. She never compromised with the resolution of a problem, however small, for a human being.

Nazar Ahari has been imprisoned since July 2009 and reportedly faces a charge of "mohareb" (war against God), which carried the death penalty.

0630 GMT: A Kurdish Political Perspective. Rooz Online carries an interview with the head of the Komeleh Party, Abdollah Mohtadi. The opening exchange:
Rooz: The Komeleh Party and the Green Movement! Is this not strange?

Abdollah Mohtadi: No, I do not believe it to be strange. I view the green movement to be a rightful and democratic movement, and we support any such movement. Even though this movement has not cut its nuptial cord from people who I think are official reformers and is still connected to them, I do not view the green movement to be the simple extension and continuation of what has been known as the reformist path in Iran. On the contrary, I believe that impasse of that model of reforms and ineffectiveness of its methods in its confrontation of dictatorship and the inability of reforms to create change at the top, has caused the green movement to take shape from the bottom through the public to attain its demands.

0615 GMT: We begin today with a special analysis: has the Supreme Leader mediated a political compromise between President Ahmadinejad and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani? And is the Ahmadinejad-Larijani profession of co-operation more than a temporary, public measure?

Meanwhile....

Political Prisoner Watch

This week we have been noting the case of Abed Tavancheh, the student activist sentenced to one year in prison. To put further pressure on him, Iranian authorities have threatened to seize his family's home.

Now, according to Tavancheh's Facebook page --- as relayed to EA by a reader --- a deal has been proposed. The activist has been told that he should be at home on Wednesday, so agents accompanied by the relative who posted the house as bail can raid it and detain him. This way the relative has made a sign of co-operation and the house will not be confiscated.

Academic Corner

Students at Zanjan University staged a sit-in protest on Sunday to protest the firing of Professor Yousef Sobouti.
Saturday
Aug212010

The Latest from Iran (21 August): Nuclear Games and Questions

2140 GMT: Bushehr Games. The Israeli Government has denounced the introduction of uranium rods into Iran's first nuclear plant. Foreign Ministry spokesman Yossi Levy said:
It is totally unacceptable that a country that so blatantly violates resolutions of theSecurity Council, decisions of the International Atomic Energy Agency and its commitments under the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) should enjoy the fruits of using nuclear energy. The international community should increase pressure on to force Iran to abide by international decisions and cease its enrichment activities and its construction of reactors.

[Editor's Note: Israel is not a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.]

1850 GMT: Why Can't We Be Friends? Looks like Britain has got an unexpected round of applause from Iran's state media.

Earlier today Foreign Office Minister Alistair Burt put out the statement, "The loading of Russian fuel into the Bushehr nuclear power reactor demonstrates that Iran can have the benefits of nuclear power. We have always respected Iran's right to develop an exclusively civil nuclear power programme."

Press TV found a reason to be cheerful: "UK: Iran Entitled to Peaceful N Energy".

However, the Iranian website did not mention the next sentence of Burt's statement: "The problem is Iran's continued refusal to satisfy the IAEA and international community that its work on uranium enrichment and heavy water projects are exclusively peaceful."

NEW Iran Video: BBC Interview with Human Rights Lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei
Iran Document & Analysis: Supreme Leader’s Speech on US-Iran Relations & Internal Situation (18 August)
Iran: Obama Administration Dampens Down War Chatter (Mazzetti/Sanger)
The Latest from Iran (21 August): Khamenei v. Ahmadinejad?


1840 GMT: Tough Talk Today (cont.). Brigadier General Yadollah Javani waves at the US and Israel, "Should the enemy make this mistake [of attacking Iran], the Islamic Republic is capable of defending itself beyond its borders and of putting the interests of the enemies in jeopardy."

Javani said the test-firing of the new surface-to-surface missile, Qiam 1, "demonstrate[d] Tehran's military might to the enemies".

1505 GMT: Family Matters. Zahra Rahnavard has strongly condemned the "Family Protection" bill, urging Parliament to reject it, as she claims that it gives more power to men to be polygamous without the knowledge of a wife and harshly discriminates against women. Rahnavard asserted, "Striking the so-called 'Family Protection bill from Parliament's agenda is not a feminist demand but rather is a symbol of national demand for the prosperity of the Iranian nation and the stability of Iranian families."

1425 GMT: Shutting Down Politics. The Ministry of Interior has re-confirmed that the Islamic Iran Participation Front and Mojadehin of Islamic Revolution party are now illegal.

1420 GMT: The Human Rights Lawyer. We have posted the video of BBC HARDTalk's interview with lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei, who recently had to leave Iran to avoid arrest.

1320 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (The Lawsuit Against Nokia Siemens). CNN has picked up on the story of the lawsuit of detained journalist Isa Saharkhiz and his son Mehdi against Nokia Siemens Networks for sale and provision of technology used by the Iranian Government for surveillance (see 0835 GMT).

1315 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Hamed Omidid, a technology student at Allameh University, has been sentenced to three years in prison for assembly and conspiracy against national security.

Omided was detained on 10 February during a Tehran University protest of the execution of Ehsan Fattahian. He was given the maximum sentence become he was in the front row of demonstrators. He has also been banned from continuing his studies.

1310 GMT: Tough Talk Today. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, talking to Qatari daily Al-Sharq, on the response if Iran is attacked:
Our options will have no limits....They will touch the entire planet....I believe that some think about attacking Iran, especially those within the Zionist entity. But they know that Iran is an indestructible bulwark and I do not think their American masters will let them do it. They also know that the Iranian response will be hard and painful.

1130 GMT: Sanctions Watch (US-Turkey Edition). The Turkish daily Hurriyet follows up the story that a US delegation from the State and Treasury Departments have warned that Turkish companies that continue their relations with Iran in defiance of sanctions risk breaking business ties with the US.

The delegation reportedly stated it will enforce sanctions against Turkish organizations investing in Iran’s energy sector and selling petroleum products to Tehran.

The US Embassy's spokeswoman said, “A group visited this week from the Treasury Department and discussed the new U.S. legislation on the UN’s decision [to impose] sanctions against Iran. There are Turkish companies that want to do business with the United States and they should be aware of the latest law."

1120 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Professor Hadi Hakim-Shafaei has been given a three-year sentence for acting against national security, insulting the Supreme Leader, and carrying out anti-regime propaganda.

Hakim-Shafaei was detained on 11 February and held for 30 days, 15 in solitary confinement, before being released on $50,000 bail. He has also been banned from teaching .

1015 GMT: Nuclear Hype. Amidst a slow news day in Iran, The Daily Telegraph uses the Bushehr nuclear plant as an excuse for a blatant distortion of an article.

The Telegraph lifts the comment from Gary Samore, President Obama's advisor on nuclear proliferation, in The New York Times article that we noted yesterday: "The process of converting nuclear material into a weapon that worked would take at least 12 months."

Setting aside the fact that Bushehr has nothing to do with a possible military programme, the Telegraph ignores the context of Samore's comment, which was part of an Obama Administration pushback against talk of an Israeli airstrike on Iran. Instead, the headline in the Telegraph turns Samore's intervention into the pressure for such action: "Iran '12 Months from Nuclear Weapon' US Warns as Bushehr Reactor Started".

0835 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (The Lawsuit Against Nokia Siemens). Cyrus Farivar, writing for Deutsche Welle, follows up on this week's story that detained journalist Isa Saharkhiz and his son Mehdi have filed a lawsuit in US Federal Court against Nokia Siemens Networks, alleging that the Finnish-Germany company sold and provided equipment used by the Iranian Government for surveillance of dissidents:
Testifying before a European Parliament committee on human rights over two months ago, Nokia executive Barry French said his company had sold "roughly one third of the deployed capacity" for mobile and data service to two major Iranian mobile operators, MCI and Irancell.

As part of these networks, Nokia Siemens provided a "lawful interception capability to both operators" and "a related monitoring center to MCI."

But Herischi, the lead attorney for the plaintiffs, alleged that Nokia Siemens either knew or should have known that lawful interception in Iran does not conform to international standards.

"Lawful interception is required for every network," he said. "And that's what we're asking. The one that Iran used was unlawful interception with the same device, and they knew that it was going to be used unlawfully."

Nokia Siemens on Friday expanded on their previous statements concerning the US lawsuit, saying that it was "brought in the wrong place, against the wrong party, and on the wrong premise."

"The Saharkhizes allege brutal treatment by the government in Iran, but they have not sued that government," the company wrote on its Web site. "Instead, they are seeking to blame Nokia Siemens Networks for the acts of the Iranian authorities by filing a lawsuit in the US, a country that has
absolutely no connection to the issues they are raising."

0750 GMT: Over-the-Top Headline of the Day. I guess, since everyone from New York to Jerusalem is leading with the Bushehr nuclear plant story, you have to dare to be different, but the BBC may have un-distinguished itself: "Will Fuelling The Bushehr Reactor Give Iran The Bomb?"

(The answer is No.)

0715 GMT: No doubt what the lead story will be in Iranian state media and "Western" press today, from Press TV to Reuters to The New York Times to The Jerusalem Post.

After years of delays, the first uranium rods will be loaded into Iran's first nuclear plant at Bushehr. State television is showing live pictures of the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, and his Russian counterpart watching the process.

We're going to buck the trend. For EA, the curious tale is why President Ahmadinejad apparently contradicted the Supreme Leader over Iran's position on talks with the US on uranium enrichment. On Thursday, Ahamadinejad told a Japanese newspaper that discussions could begin within weeks; less than 24 hours earlier, Ayatollah Khamenei had ruled out any negotiations unless the US pulled back on sanctions against Tehran.

There's an important context, indeed precedent, for the story. Last autumn, it was Ahmadinejad who was pushing for a deal with the US and other countries, all the way to the Geneva talks in October. One of  the reasons why those discussions, the first direct public contact with Washington in years, stalled was because of the opposition of not only the Supreme Leader but also key political figures such as Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.

So, given the growing tensions within the Iranian political elite --- tensions highlighted by both the Supreme Leader and the leader of Tehran Friday Prayers this week --- are the nuclear talks again intersecting with power plays in Tehran?