UPDATED Iran: Tehran Declares Readiness for Nuclear Talks?

UPDATE 29 August: A flurry of comments out of Tehran today on the uranium enrichment discussions indicate Iran may be opening the door for direct talks with Washington and other countries....

Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani --- in a shift from his comments last Sunday that Iran would negotiate with anyone in the world except the US --- has said that the country has never ruled out talks with the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Russia, China, Germany) or the Vienna Group (the US, Russia, France, and the International Atomic Energy Agency).

Larijani insisted, "We have never ruled out talks, but sometime they left the table and showed misconduct," presumably a reference to the breakdown of discussions after Iran met the 5+1 in Geneva last October.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast also said Tehran is ready for discussions: "We have expressed our readiness for talks with Vienna Group and we believe the way is paved for talks to start: Talks can be started sooner if they specify details and we reach an agreement on place and date of the negotiations."

However, Mehmanparast added comments that muddled the apparent openness to talks:

If the US seriously seeks to revive relations with Iran, it should make changes in its attitude. Washington should prove that it will never repeat previous mistakes and will not pursue misguided and hostile policies towards the Iranian nation. We should sense a maturity in remarks and attitude of US officials and they should accept that rights of nations must be respected....There is no reason to prepare the grounds for establishing relations at the time the US attacks other countries, violates rights of nations and sees its interests in war and massacre....Such conduct will not work toward a country like Iran.

Iranian media are highlighting Thursday's statement by US State Department spokesman P J Crowley,
"We are hopeful that the constructive meetings, both at the IAEA and with the P5+1, can be set up in the next few weeks."

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ORIGINAL STORY (27 August): EA staff have been in the midst of a debate over Iran's approach to uranium enrichment talks with the US as part of the "5+1" (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia). After a series of statements last week by Iranian officials, including the Supreme Leader, the President, and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, the central question has been: is there a unified voice coming out of Tehran on whether Iran will pursue discussions and, if so, will there be any pre-conditions?

Yesterday, we noted the latest public statement, in which Iran's head of atomic energy proposed a joint consortium with Russia for fuel for the Bushehr nuclear reactor, and we looked to wider significance:

The presentation is that Iran is a responsible, low-enriching state, working under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency and with the help of Russia. In essence, it is a proposal to the Western powers of what a nuclear Iran would look like if sanctions were eased and/or concessions were made.

Salehi’s statement is therefore much more than a proposed arrangement for Bushehr and other plants. It is a challenge to Russia to endorse this vision of Iran’s nuclear future, giving Moscow the opportunity to serve as a broker between Iran and the West.

An EA correspondent advances the discussion this morning:

Ayatollah Khamenei has a range of people who have his ear and whose opinion he is willing to listen to. He hears them all, makes his assessments, sees what they have to offer.

Here we have Salehi with his pragmatic, nuclear technician's world view. If the West can come to terms with that, Khamenei would then appraise the relative benefits of making an approach, judging the extent to which he sees Iran's interests being served. Once he makes a decision, he can bring in political capital to bear ensure it is accepted.

The Supreme Leader is not omnipotent. Instead, his political calculations must use the instincts, knowledge and experience, which he has gained in more than 20 years in power-broking, in order to manage the different and conflicting power centres in Iran with the ultimate aim of maintaining his central position. That is something which he has been pretty successful at so far.

Of course, the divisions within the conservative establishment are in contrast with the entirely mythological paradigm of political unity, which did not even hold during the Khomeini period. The different threads running through the fabric of the conservatives should be seen as threads that Khamenei can pull --- or refuse to pull --- depending on how he reads the situation. In that sense his title of "rahbar" can be read in the sense of "conductor", as in the conductor of an orchestra.

This time last year Ahmadinejad appeared eager for talks and the rest of the conservatives shot him down. At that time Khamenei either allowed this to happen a) because he had a better idea or b) because he actually desired that the President receive a put down or c) he could not risk preventing it because of the high cost in political capital or d) a bit of all of the above.

This year I think we can see clearly that he is calling for a ceasefire in the intra-conservative in-fighting before the international dimension is re-opened

So I didn't read Khamenei's speech of 18 August in the way that Scott Lucas read it [as a rejection of discussions with the US in the near-future]. I think it was quite natural that Khamenei refrain from expend valuable political capital at this point by appearing conducive to talks. In this critical situation, it is logical for him to hold himself above the fray and fall back on familiar rhetorical ground. He can play "hard to get" while allowing his carefully vetted ambassadors to act as intermediaries.

We probably should not read too much into what Khamenei says on the international issue at the moment. The domestic scene on the other hand, that's a different story....