The Latest from Iran (23 August): Political Cease-fire?

1830 GMT: Shh, Don't Mention the Sanctions. In an interview with former President Abulhassan Banisadr, Deutsche Welle refers to two directives from Iran's Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance. One banning newspapers from printing pictures and news of opposition figures has already been mentioned (see 0919 GMT).

The other is new to us: Iranian media have apparently been told to make no mention of the effects of sanctions.

NEW Iran Document: Interview with Detained Filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad
NEW Iran Special: Have Ahmadinejad and Ali Larijani Kissed and Made Up?
Iran: Today’s Shiny Object for Media? Why, It’s an Ambassador-of-Death Drone Bomber!
The Latest from Iran (22 August): Ahmadinejad Aide Mortazavi Suspended?

1800 GMT: The President's Men. Fars News is now carrying the story of the suspension of three officials over the Kahrizak Prison abuses, but does not name any of them, including Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi.

1745 GMT: MediaWatch (cont.). Thomas Erdbrink, writing in The Washington Post, is the first "Western" reporter to name Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi as one of the three officials suspended for alleged connections with post-election Kahrizak Prison abuses. Erdbrink quotes human rights lawyer Saleh Nikbakht, "Mortazavi is among them, and now that he no longer has judicial immunity, he could face trial."

And The Financial Times is clearly on a roll with its coverage of the in-fighting. Having noted the Supreme Leader's intervention on Wednesday (see 1735 GMT), the newspaper also features Najmeh Bozorgmehr's article "Shia Schism Deepens Ahmadi-Nejad's Woes": "The infighting between Iran’s fundamentalists has deepened the gulf between supporters and opponents of President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad."

1735 GMT: MediaWatch on The President's Men. Credit to Reuters for picking up on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's appointment of his chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, as one of his four "special representatives" for foreign policy --- Rahim-Mashai's responsibility will be the Near East --- and for putting that in the context of political battles within the establishment.

Not so sure, however, that Reuters' snap conclusion is on the mark: "[This suggests] for now that for now [Ahmadinejad] may have the upper hand over the critics." (Someone might want to consult Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.)

The Financial Times, belatedly but interestingly, notes the Supreme Leader's intervention last Wednesday and frames it as "Ayatollah Warns Bickering Politicians". The reporter, Monavar Khalaj, picks out this extract from Ayatollah Khamenei's statements, “I gave a serious warning to the officials not to make their differences public....Unity and solidarity among the country’s officials is a religious duty and the intentional rejection [of unity] is, especially in the upper echelon, against religious teachings.”

1720 GMT: Baby Basij. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, drawing from Aftab News, reports that female commander of the Basij militia, Zohreh Abbasi, has said that her unit has introduced a special program that allows baby girls to be registered as members of the force and receive training.

Abbasi said that, in the past six years, 23 baby girls had been trained as Basij members through "Koranic, cultural, educational, and military" classes.

"Basij mothers register their baby girls 40 days after they were born at the Hossein Haj Mousaee unit by presenting documents and IDs," Abbasi said. She declared that two babies have recently been born and  work is under way to prepare a dossiers for the new arrivals to enrol them in the special program.

1715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Detainees at Rajai Shahr Prison written to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, asking him to support human rights and labour activism.

1450 GMT: Energy Squeeze. Nabucco Gas Pipeline International GmbH, the company behind the amibitious Asia to Europe "gas bridge", will supply Europe through links to Turkey’s borders with Georgia and Iraq, rejecting a connection to the Turkish-Iranian border. Nabucco said the shareholders' decision was “due to the current political situation".

1335 GMT: MediaWatch (President's Man Edition). Almost 24 hours after the suspension of Ahmadinejad aide and former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi from his post because of alleged links to the Kahrizak Prison abuses, non-Iranian media --- like their counterparts in Tehran --- are not providing a name. The BBC, following the lead of the Associated Press, say only that "Iran has suspended three judicial officers".

1315 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Persian2English reports that Amnesty International and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands have expressed concern over the possibility of a death sentence for Zahra Bahrami, an Iranian-Dutch citizen arrested in Iran after the Ashura protests of 27 December.

1245 GMT: Tough Talk Today. Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, the Revolutionary Guard's Navy Commander, says Iran's missile-launching vessels are the best in the world for speed and power. “American warships currently have a maximum speed of 31 knots while Iranian vessels can travel twice as fast on average,” Fadavi said at a ceremony to open production lines for domestically-built Zolfaghar and Seraj craft.

1100 GMT: The Nuclear Front. Yesterday we noted, from a paragraph in a New York Times article on the Bushehr nuclear plant, the significant announcement that "Russia would provide Iran with iodine and molybdenum, nuclear isotopes used in medicine" and asked, "Will Iran withdraw its demand that it be allowed to enrich uranium to 20%, at least while discussions proceed on a long-term deal over the nuclear programme? And is Washington up-to-speed and supportive of the Russian move?"

An EA source offers an answer, noting this statement from the head of Iran's nuclear enrichment programme, Ali Akbar Salehi:

We will go as far as our needs are met. So we have no intention to proceed forever for enriching [uranium] to 20%, although it is our right according to the NPT [Non-Proliferation Treaty] and the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] statute to enrich uranium to any percentage that is needed for peaceful uses in nuclear energy. But this does not mean that we shall do so. We only embarked on 20% because of the conditions that were imposed on us. I reiterate that we will go as far as our needs are met.

Our source comments, "Seems to me that Iran is gearing up to offer this as a bargaining chip."

0919 GMT: Blackout in the Newspapers. Daneshjoo News publishes a document which it claims is a Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance order barring the names and pictures of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami from newspapers.

0918 GMT: Silence in the Theatre. Voice of America offers an overview of new restrictions by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance on Iran's theatre.

0915 GMT: We have published a separate feature: journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad, just before returning to prison last week, posted his comments in an interview for his website.

0739 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Jila Bani Yaghoub, the wife of journalist Bahman Ahmadi Amoui, one of 17 detainees who recently went on hunger strike in Evin Prison, has offered an update on her blog.

Bani Yaghoub says the hunger strikers, who ended their fast last week, are "weakened" but in excellent spirits. She claims that, when they were finally returned to the general ward --- Amoui was one of the last three prisoners to be let out of solitary confinement --- they knew already about the international "echo" of their protest.

0735 GMT: Cleric Stands Tough. Following yet another attempt by a crowd to intimidate him by gathering outside the Shiraz mosque where he presides, Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib has warned "those who meet clandestinely to attack Qoba Mosque again". He said that he is interpreting the Qu'ran in mosque, and all that his followers want is justice and implementation the Constitution.

0725 GMT: The Supreme Leader and the Students. More on Ayatollah Khamenei's three-hour meeting with student represenatives on Sunday....

The Supreme Leader declared, "I am united with all those who follow principles, but others are outside" the Iranian system. He added, "We must not eliminate people with weak religious belief on pretext of purifying society."

Khamenei admitted --- interestingly, in light of yesterday's news about the suspension of three officials --- that procedure in the Kahrizak abuse case had been slow.

0650 GMT: An Ahmadinejad-Ali Larijani Deal? Really?

Already EA correspondents are moving beyond the public face of a reconciliation between the President and the Speaker of Parliament --- considered in our special analysis this morning --- and the notion of a resolution between the Majlis and the Government is far from clear-cut.

First, the Ahmadinejad meeting with Parliament that preceded the press conference with Larijani....

The President, attending with Minister of Agriculture Sadegh Khalilian (who is under some pressure from the Majlis) and Minister of Economy Shamsoddin Hosseini, welcomed the monthly discussions. Then the questions began on topics which have been long-standing and growing sources of dispute: privatisation, proper implementation of laws, cultural problems (hijab), and the possible impeachment of Khalilian.

That in itself was a bit of a climb-down for Ahmadinejad, who had balked at given an account of his meetings, but it cut off an initiative by some MPs for formal questioning of the President. This, as well as the Supreme Leader's intervention on Wednesday, lay behind the good-news statements that followed the meeting: Ali Larijani said the Majlis has made the first step for unity of powers, while Ahmadinejad declared, "If you make good laws, the Government will implement them."

Whether that reconcililation holds is another issue. In the meeting, Ahmadinejad faced challenges, such as Mohammad Ebrahim Nekounam insisting on the Government's "duty" to implement Majlis legislation and Gholam-Ali Hadad Adel insisting that the President's enforcement of the "hijab and chastity project" is absolutely necessary. (As always, make what you will of the fact that this description is appearing in Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani.)

And there are signals of persistence, if not defiance, from each side. The President has given his Chief of Staff --- Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai --- a prime target for the criticisms of conservative MPs --- yet another post, appointing him as special representative for the Near East. (There have also been appointments for Asia, the Caspian Sea area, and Afghanistan.)

From the Parliamentary side, Mohammad Karami-Rad said that a meeting with Minister of Agriculture Khalilian, postponed because of Wednesday's discussions with the Supreme Leader, will take place and the Majlis will proceed with moves for impeachment.

0640 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Persian2English publishes a letter from Sepideh Pooraghaiee, a friend and colleague of Shiva Nazar Ahari, about the deatined human rights activist and journalist:

Shiva Nazar Ahari has acted very distinguishably throughout the years. She never allowed intimidations and threats to turn into an impenetrable dam against her sacred efforts. Along with her bravery and clarity, she also was calm, patient and hopeful. She never expected to be praised. She never compromised with the resolution of a problem, however small, for a human being.

Nazar Ahari has been imprisoned since July 2009 and reportedly faces a charge of "mohareb" (war against God), which carried the death penalty.

0630 GMT: A Kurdish Political Perspective. Rooz Online carries an interview with the head of the Komeleh Party, Abdollah Mohtadi. The opening exchange:

Rooz: The Komeleh Party and the Green Movement! Is this not strange?

Abdollah Mohtadi: No, I do not believe it to be strange. I view the green movement to be a rightful and democratic movement, and we support any such movement. Even though this movement has not cut its nuptial cord from people who I think are official reformers and is still connected to them, I do not view the green movement to be the simple extension and continuation of what has been known as the reformist path in Iran. On the contrary, I believe that impasse of that model of reforms and ineffectiveness of its methods in its confrontation of dictatorship and the inability of reforms to create change at the top, has caused the green movement to take shape from the bottom through the public to attain its demands.

0615 GMT: We begin today with a special analysis: has the Supreme Leader mediated a political compromise between President Ahmadinejad and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani? And is the Ahmadinejad-Larijani profession of co-operation more than a temporary, public measure?

Meanwhile....

Political Prisoner Watch

This week we have been noting the case of Abed Tavancheh, the student activist sentenced to one year in prison. To put further pressure on him, Iranian authorities have threatened to seize his family's home.

Now, according to Tavancheh's Facebook page --- as relayed to EA by a reader --- a deal has been proposed. The activist has been told that he should be at home on Wednesday, so agents accompanied by the relative who posted the house as bail can raid it and detain him. This way the relative has made a sign of co-operation and the house will not be confiscated.

Academic Corner

Students at Zanjan University staged a sit-in protest on Sunday to protest the firing of Professor Yousef Sobouti.

The Latest from Iran (12 August): Prisoners, Confessions, and the "War Diversion"

1745 GMT: Bazaar Battle Continues. Ahmad Karimi Esfahani, the Secretary General of Islamic Bazaar Association has complained about the announcement of the Consumer Protection Organization that guilds have debts of $24 million, asking why government debts are not published.

Esfahani claimed the announcement Is meant to incite people against the Bazaar and said the vendors won't accept this slander --- guilds are not responsible for high prices, instead it is due to the mismanagement of government, which then tries to pass the blame.

1730 GMT: The Battle Within. Another challenge to the President, this time from the Ansar Hizbullah daily Yalthareth....

The newspaper notes that Ahmadinejad protested against a seven-month prison sentence for former IRIB chief Mohammad Jafar Behdad for slander against the Larijani brothers and Hashemi Rafsanjani and asks, "Would he do the same for a normal journalist if he had insulted the President? Would he defend a nobody?"

The newspaper continues, "For some justice has no meaning and they allow themselves to mock and humiliate judiciary, because they disagree with a court ruling."

Behdad is a member of the President's Council for Policy-making and Propagation.

1545 GMT: All the President's Men (cont.). The "conservative" Jomhooriye Eslami daily has attacked Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, declaring that his number of offices is unprecedented in the past 30 years and asserting that he has made stupid statements on every matter from heaven to earth, inciting the anger of the people and political figures.

The newspaper continued that, instead of Rahim-Mashai being disciplined, his superiors praise him and repeat his words, which makes the situation even worse. Jomhooriye Eslami says that such a person should be reminded once and for all that he should "talk in his own realm" and refrains from inciting protests amongst the people.

MP Gholam-Hossein Masoudi Reyhan has stated that 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi's words are "an insult to science and professors", criticising the Vice President's assertion that all Iranian universites are of poor quality.

1540 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reformist Mohsen Safaei Farahani has declared that he will not withdraw his complaint over unjust and abusive treatment and will return to prison.

Farahani was arrested on June 20, 2009. Sentenced to five years in prison, he is currently on leave

1330 GMT: The Battle Within. A interesting summary, "The Clerics Turn Away; Iran in Fever" by R. Chimelli in Süddeutsche Zeitung last Friday:

The opposition movement has lost the battle on the streets. Organized demonstrations do not come about, because police, militia and thug forces are too powerful, and --– maybe more importantly --– because of the horrible accounts of torture and illegal detention centers, given by those arrested during the protests. Censorship has never been as repressive as today and reaches out to the print media as well as the internet. Iran’s most renowned journalists and its best-known student leader are currently on hunger strike in prison. Hardly noticed abroad, smaller or larger labor disputes are arising everywhere in the country, (but) union leaders like the head of Tehran’s bus driver union, Mansur Osanloo, have been jailed for several years....

However, Ahmadinejad and the spiritual leader Khamenei could not win people’s hearts or minds. There is not a single renowned writer, artist or filmmaker who would take sides with the country’s rulers. The regime is creating a climate of intellectual poverty, and more and more leading clerics are turning their backs to the regime --– sometimes so visibly that they are answered with violent attacks.

Chimelli notes the significant incident --- which we covered closely on EA --- where the Supreme Leader's office approached Grand Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi for the "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa. (Makarem-Shirazi declined, unless Ayatollah Khamenei put the pronouncement in the form of an answer to a question from a follower.)

1300 GMT: Britain Does Not Recognise Foreign Affairs Greatness of 1st VP Rahimi. This week we have been noting the emergence of 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi as a commentator on international relations and events.

Unfortunately, it seems there is one observer who has failed to give due regard to this. The UK Ambassador to Iran, Simon Gass, said comments about the English as “a bunch of thick people” were “illogical and worthless” and showed “a lack of respect for human dignity”.

Mr Rahimi, in a speech on Monday, called Australians “a bunch of cattlemen” and said South Koreans should be “smacked in the face until they become human”. But his finest remarks were reserved for the land of Queen Elizabeth II:

England has nothing. Its inhabitants are not human, its officials are not responsible, and it doesn’t even have any natural resources. [They are] a bunch of thick people ruled by a mafia. They have plundered the world in the last 500 years and the young lad in charge now is even more stupid than his predecessor.

1200 GMT: Karroubi Watch. More from Mehdi Karroubi's e-mail interview with The Guardian of London:

Karroubi said he believed the Green movement had not been defeated: "It's no longer possible for the opposition movement to pour out en masse into the streets ….But we also do not think it's necessary any more to do this....People were out in the streets to inform the world of what is really happening inside Iran, and they succeeded in doing so. Now the world knows what is the problem in Iran."

Karroubi added his conception of the Islamic Republic: "I should make it clear that we are a reformist movement, not a revolutionary one … We are seeking nothing more than a free election."

The cleric, asked about the notion of leadership in the opposition responded, "In my opinion, it's an advantage that no specific person is the leader. I think that the only reason the Green movement has not been stopped yet is because it doesn't have one leader or unified leadership. If it had, then by arresting that leader they could have controlled the whole movement."

1145 GMT: Mystery Solved. Last week non-Iranian heads were scratched over President Ahmadinejad's aphorism, in the middle of a speech to the Iranian diaspora conference, "The bogeyman snatched the boob."

Iranian commentators went as far as to suggest there might be a bit of Viagra in the water of Tehran's politicians, but Golnaz Esfandiari has offered the explanation, "The expression is one used by mothers in Iran when they are weaning their children off breast milk."

Thus, for an Ahmadinejad scoffing at Washington's efforts to punish Iran over its nuclear programme, "the bogeyman snatched the boob" from the Americans.

0930 GMT: All the President's Men (cont.). Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has brought Gholamhossein Elham, who failed to be re-appointed to the Guardian Council, back into government by naming him as his legal advisor.

An EA source says there is a rumour that Elham will soon replace the controversial Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as Chief of Staff.

0825 GMT: All the President's Men.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has publicly defended his embattled aide, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai:

Mashai is the president’s Chief of Staff and I have full trust in him. The atmosphere of criticism is a necessity and nobody should be condemned for voicing his viewpoints and not every difference of opinion should lead to a fight.

And then this interesting twist, given that Iran's head of armed forces, General Hassan Firouzabadi, said on Monday that Mashai’s remarks on Iran and Islam are a “crime against national security": Ahmadinejad claimed that the attacks against Mashaei are the work of “certain political groups" who are trying to undermine the government.

0805 GMT: Parliament v. Government. President Ahmadinejad has refused again to allocate $2 million for the Tehran metro.

The initial authorisation by the Parliament was refused by the Guardian Council. The Majlis passed the bill to the Expediency Council, which confirmed it, only to meet Ahmadinejad's refusal.

The President has now announced that he has reported "all critical issues" to the Supreme Leader, who has handed the matter back to the Guardian Council, which in turn has established a special group to solve the problems.

EA correspondent Ms Zahra analyses: "This is a bad situation for all. The Supreme Leader has proven that extant institutions are worth nothing and has put himself in opposition to the Majlis. The Majlis will be a joke if the Guardian Council refuses again. The position of Hashemi Rafsanjani, as head of the Expediency Council, is weakened. Ahmadinejad is losing the support of hardline MPs."

0800 GMT: Karroubi's International Comment. Mehdi Karroubi has written, in an e-mail interview with The Guardian of London: "On the one hand, the government's mishandling of the economy has resulted in deep recession and increasing inflation inside the country... On the other hand, we have sanctions which are just strengthening the illegitimate government."

Karroubi added:

Look at Cuba and North Korea. Have sanctions brought democracy to their people? They have just made them more isolated and given them the opportunity to crack down on their opposition without bothering themselves about the international attention....Because Iran is getting more isolated, more and more they are becoming indifferent to what the world is thinking about them.

0745 GMT: Iran-US. Another signal from Washington that resumed talks with Tehran are being considered....

National Security Advisor James Jones has told CNN that President Obama may meet Mahmoud Ahmadinejad if discussions resume over Iran's nuclear programme: “Ultimately if we find a convergence of paths all things are possible.

Jones indicated that a gesture from Tehran over three Americans, detained for more than a year, would be helpful: “One thing they might do is return our three hikers. That would be an important gesture. It could lead to better relations.”

Barack Obama 'may be prepared to meet Iranian president’:

Barack Obama’s national security adviser, Gen James Jones, has indicated the President may be prepared to meet Mahmoud Ahmadinejad if the regime resumed negotiations over its nuclear programme. ...
However, in an interview with CNN, Gen Jones said “the door’s open” if the Iranians agree to resume talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency. When asked whether Mr Obama may meet the Iranian leader, Gen Jones said: “Ultimately if we find a convergence of paths all things are possible.
“One thing they might do is return our three hikers. That would be an important gesture. It could lead to better relations.” However, the President’s national security adviser said there would be “no point in a theatrical meeting.” It is unlikely that the Iranians will agree to the American’s demands as the regime has repeatedly circumvented previous attempts to rein in its nuclear programme.

0740 GMT: Execution (Ashtiani) Watch. Following Brazil's formal offer of asylum to Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, condemned to death for adultery, Foreign Minister Celso Amorim has told a conference of university students, "Who can say that a humanitarian gesture won't be good for Iran, for its image in the world?"

0715 GMT: The Torture Files. Perisan2English has posted a translation of the report --- noted by EA earlier this week --- in Khodnevis of the files of 22 political prisoners, allegedly abused, delivered to the Supreme Leader.

According to Khodnevis' source, Khamenei rejected the claims in the letters, but after an agreement with Hashemi Rafsanjani, a five-person committee was set up to investigate the cases. Two former Ministers of Intelligence, Younesi and Mohseni-Ejei, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are among the members of the committee.

0650 GMT: Anything You Can Threaten, We Can Threaten Better....

Israel might have Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic, but Iran has an array of media outlets for this week's posturing.

The naval commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Ali Fadavi, said Wednesday, “The IRGC’s navy is been fully positioned in Bandar Abbas (in southern Iran) and has the capability to carry out its assigned functions and can respond to threats of extra-regional enemies....The IRGC’s naval force will respond to naval-based enemy threats with full preparation and absolute force, striking the enemy from all positions and from all sides in case of war.”

Fadavi's declaration followed an announcement on Sunday by the Minister of Defence of the positioning of military equipment, including four submarines capable of launching missiles, at IRGC and army bases in southern Iran.

And he head of Iran's Joint Chief of Staff, Major General Hassan Firouzabadi, responding to remarks by Admiral Mike Mullen, the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: “Our foreign minister told Mr. Mike Mullen that if the US attacked Iran, it would be in worse shape than it is after its attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq. America will be finished if it attacks Iran. America is not in a good situation. It can neither tolerate the heavy costs (of another war) nor tolerate fighting against Iran’s Basiji heroes.”

0640 GMT: Mousavi Watch. Mir Hossein Mousavi has met with youth from Iran's provinces to discuss the social, economic, and political situation, including unemployment and the rise in drug addiction, as well as continued activism despite regime pressure.

Speaking about the recent hunger strike in Evin Prison, Mousavi said, “The meaningful and inspiring strike by prisoners will eventually shows its effective outcomes, and I’d like to congratulate these brave prisoners who ended their strike and witnessed its results.”

Mousavi asserted that the Green Movement had the capacity to resolve the “moral” concerns of the country: “We must remember that the social deviances are the results of the wrongdoings, flawed ways of thinking, and deceptive ways and lies created for the nation by the hardliners, and for this reason I believe that the supreme and honourable goals of the Green Movement can control the deviations [from the right path] in society."

Demanding the rights of assembly and protest, Mousavi said, “Neglecting parts of the Constitution, especially the nation’s rights, renders the rest of its articles as meaningless too. How can those who are not even prepared to mention, for once, the rights of citizens or the right of the people to control their own destiny, make any claim about the covenant between the people and the state? Violating this covenant will lead to the illegitimacy of the state."

0545 GMT: We begin this morning with three features.

EA's Josh Shahryar, writing in The Huffington Post assesses the significance of the recent hunger strike by political prisoners and its impact beyond the jail cells: "The Uprising Continues".

We have highlighted in a separate entry the Iranian regime's response to criticism of the death sentence for adultery imposed upon Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani and the harassment of her lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei: putting Ashtiani on a prime-time national TV programme to "confess".

And Scott Lucas --- briefly, because there are more important matters to consider today --- takes apart the "analysis" that may well dominate US-based chatter today: Jeffrey Goldberg's lengthy projection of high-level Israeli opinion on a aerial attack on Iran.