The Latest from Iran (26 August): Ahmadinejad v. "Seditionists"

2115 GMT: Economic Number of the Day. Deutsche Welle reports that the Ahmadinejad Government is now more than $140 billion in debt.

2010 GMT: Family Protection. Back to our first item of the day....

The Los Angeles Times offers an overview of the Family Protection Bill currently being considered by the Parliament, with Iranians offering a range of views on its provisions. The legislation has prompted criticism because of its provisions on the registration of temporary marriage (rejected yesterday by the Majlis) and on relaxing the conditions on polygamy.

2005 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Safe World for Women has published a special on human rights activists Shiva Nazar Ahari, detained since July 2009 and facing a possible death sentence on the charge of "moharab" (war against God).

Kurdish journalist Ejlal Qavami has been freed from interrogation.

1845 GMT: Parliament v. Government. MP Elyas Naderan, a leading critic of the Government, is at it again: he claims there is no serious will to implement subsidy cuts and says the Government is offering no information on implementation.

Members of Parliament for Zanjan have protested the dismissal of the head of Zanjan University, Professor Yousef Sobouti (see 0625 GMT).

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Iran: Is President’s Chief of Staff Rahim-Mashai Taking On Foreign Policy?
The Latest from Iran (25 August): Unity?

1840 GMT: A Basij Empire? According to Peyke Iran, the head of the Basij paramilitary, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, has offered a vision of 7000 new Basiji bases: "Today we have 3.5 million active Basij; we must raise it to 20 million."

1830 GMT: Ahmadinejad Tough Talk. Rooz Online, drawing from Iranian sources, claims that the President has been dishing out critical comments in meetings: he called former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and former Presidential candidate Nategh Nouri "mofsed" (rotten people) and said that "seditionists" have not been dealt with yet.

1815 GMT: The President's Man Turns? Mehdi Kalhor, a former advisor to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has harshly criticised the President in a lengthy interview with Khabar Online.

Kalhor talked about Ahmadinejad's "wrong urban planning", including "forced migration" from Tehran, mis-management of the Mehr Housing Project, with the wasting of money by the Revolutionary Guard, and subsidy cuts.

Kalhor brought up the post-election conflict: "We have to find a sensible solution for many of last year's problems; there is still fire under the ashes." And he added this provocative comment about the President's loyalties: "I was insulted many times instead of [Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim] Mashai."

1800 GMT: Is This Iran's Nuclear Strategy? Some thoughts on the latest statement from Iran's head of atomic energy, Ali Akbar Salehi, proposing a joint consortium with Russia for production of fuel for the Bushehr nuclear plant (see 0835 GMT):

With the possibility of talks with the "5+1" (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China) this autumn, it appears Iran is playing down its need to enrich uranium to 20%, stressing instead the cooperation with Russia on low-level nuclear enrichment for power stations as well as finding domestic sources of uranium for an expanding system of nuclear energy production.

The presentation is that Iran is a responsible, low-enriching state, working under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency and with the help of Russia. In essence, it is a proposal to the Western powers of what a nuclear Iran would look like if sanctions were eased and/or concessions were made.

Salehi's statement is therefore much more than a proposed arrangement for Bushehr and other plants. It is a challenge to Russia to endorse this vision of Iran's nuclear future, giving Moscow the opportunity to serve as a broker between Iran and the West.

1555 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Turkey's Industry and Trade Minister Nihat Ergun has said that joint projects with Iran will continue despite United Nations and United States sanctions on Tehran.

1545 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Radio Zamaneh has more on the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front's statement of concern about the return to detention of senior member Mostafa Tajzadeh and journalist/filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad.

The IIPF calls describes the blackout of information since Tajzadeh and Nourizad were summoned back to prison 11 and 8 days ago, respectively, as the “apex of lawlessness of the cruel-hearted jailors". The organisation condemned the violence against political prisoners and said that this will lead to the “fall of the Islamic Republic".

1500 GMT: Freedom Corner. Journalist and women's rights activist Mahboubeh Abbasgholizadeh and Mexican journalist Pedro Matías Arrazola have won Germany's Johann Philipp Palm Prize for freedom of expression and of the press.

1240 GMT: Missiles and Bombs. Edward Yeranian of Voice of America has a look at Iran's military posing, including yesterday's firing of a new version of a medium-range missile. EA makes an appearance by being just a bit cynical about the Tehran show of big muscles:

It is the other side of the threat narrative, that just as you get these whipped up stories in the United States about 'there could well be an Israeli attack on Iran,' that this is how Iran strikes back. If you are going to promote the fact that Tehran might be attacked, (Iran) will promote the fact that (it) can defend (itself).

And we also make the inconvenient --- well, inconvenient for some in the Government --- linkage to internal matters: "Facing all types of political pressure within the system, and we are not just talking about pressure from the (opposition) Green Movement or reformists, but pressure from other conservatives and from clerics within the system, that you want to present this image of authority, this image of control."

And for some more threat chatter, over to Reuters:

Iran has stockpiled enough low-enriched uranium for 1-2 nuclear arms but it would not make sense for it to cross the bomb-making threshold with only this amount, a former top U.N. nuclear official was quoted as saying.

In unusual public remarks about Iran's disputed nuclear programme Olli Heinonen, the former chief of U.N. nuclear inspections worldwide, told Le Monde newspaper that Iran's uranium reserve still represented a "threat."

0900 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Britain's leading publication on universities, Times Higher Education, picks up the story --- reported in EA on 19 August --- that Durham University has gone public with its concern over the health and situation of detained Ph.D. student Ehsan Abdoh-Tabrizi, writing an open letter to the Iranian Ambassador to Britain.

The university, in consultation with Abdoh-Tabrizi, had pursued the case quietly since the student was detained during a visit to Iran last December. However, it had grown frustrated with a lack of response from Iranian officials to its correspondence.

0855 GMT: One Way Around the Sanctions? Press TV reports that creditors of Daewoo Electronics, South Korea's third-largest electronics firm, have reached a deal to sell the company to Iranian home appliance maker Entekhab Industrial Group.

South Korea recently joined international sanctions against Tehran.

0850 GMT: The Election "Coup"? Green Correspondents carries a lengthy statement by reformist politician Ali Shakouri-Rad about the complaint brought by seven of his colleagues --- all in detention --- over alleged military interference before and after the 2009 Presidential election. Shakouri-Rad reviews the audio of the Revolutionary Guard commander outlining the military's tactics to suppress oppression.

0845 GMT: Fashion Watch. HRANA claims that Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has said that "bad hijab" is a crime.

0835 GMT: A Nuclear Solution? Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, has said that Tehran has made a proposal to Russia for joint production of nuclear fuel for the Russian-built Bushehr plant: "We have made a proposal to Russia for the creation of a consortium, licensed by that country, to do part of the work in Russia and part of it in Iran. Moscow is studying this offer."

0830 GMT: MediaWatch. William Yong and Robert Worth of The New York Times pick up on the formal order from the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance barring media from mentioning Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mehdi Karroubi by name.

Iraj Jamshidi, the editor of the recently banned newspaper Asia, tells them, “They [the Iranian Government] have already made it clear indirectly that news about these figures is banned,” said Under the current climate, no one dares to interview Mr. Moussavi or Mr. Karroubi. They want them to be forgotten.”

Interestingly, Yong and Worth tuck away in the story the news --- which may be far more politically important --- that Presidential aide and former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi is one of the three officials suspended for connections to the Kahrizak Prison abuses.

0818 GMT: Tough Talk Today (Sedition and World War II Edition). Press TV, quoting Fars News, gets to the press conference of Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi that we noted yesterday.

The "highlight" is Moslehi's assurance from his imagination, backing up the magic figure put out by Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, of a US-Saudi backing of opposition figures for "regime change": "This issue is true. A fund of over even one billion dollars can be imagined.

Moslehi then gave his proof: "We have found clear clues about foreign support for the leaders of sedition. [Iranian state media have been ordered not to refer to Mir Housavi Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami by name: thus "leaders of sedition.] For example, a man who collected news for the leaders of sedition was arrested and confessed to receiving aid from the CIA intelligence services." Another person who has fled the country used to write statements for the sedition leaders, he continued: "The individual has acknowledged receiving support from intelligence services."

But, Moslehi assured, there was really nothing to worry about: wise and timely measures adopted by Iran's security forces had thwarted all the plots.

Press TV also features an attempt by Iranian officials, reaching back to World War II, to get some of that $1 billion from its foes: "Vice-President for Parliamentary Affairs Mohammad-Reza Mir-Tajeddini said Wednesday that Iran sought to demand compensation since it sustained heavy damages despite its neutrality in the war....'More than 4,000 documents have been prepared and we are compiling more on the issue,' he went on to say".

0635 GMT: Cartoon of Day. Nikahang Kowsar, in Rooz Online, portrays --- with the help of the image of Mir Hossein Mousavi --- the Iranian regime's model of national reconciliation.



0630 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kurdish author and civil rights activist Behzad Kurdestani has been detained. The reason for arrest is unknown.

0625 GMT: Academic Purge. Deutsche Welle offers an overview of Government pressure on academic officials, claiming more than 20 university presidents have been dismissed in recent months in a "purification" of academia.

Mehdi Karroubi has protested the dismissal of Professor Yousef Sobouti, the President of Zanjan University. Sobouti's removal brought vocal protests by Zanjan students earlier this week.

0615 GMT: Story of the Day: Revolutionary Guard and Ministry of Intelligence Fight It Out....

Rah-e-Sabz claims that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps had installed monitoring systems in a seven-story building frequented by high-ranking politicians.

Last week some of the politicians detected the surveillance and, unaware of who carried it out, asked the Ministry of Intelligence to check the building. The Ministry denied responsibility and sent technical specialists, who inevitably discovered many IRGC cameras and microphones. As the specialists were leaving, they were accosted by a group of Revolutionary Guard. A fight followed, with guns even being drawn.

Rah-e-Sabz claims that the order for surveillance was given by Hossein Taeb, the chief of the IRGC's Intelligence Bureau. It adds that one of the missions was to gather information on Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, who has fallen out of favour with the Supreme Leader. The IRGC are allegedly sending reports directly to Ayatollah Khamenei.

0555 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Massoud Shafiee, the lawyer for three Americans --- Sarah Shourd, Joshua Fattal and Shane Bauer --- arrested in July 2009 when they walked across the Iraq-Iran border, has written Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi to request review of the case, in part of Shourd's deteriorating health: “I told the authorities in charge of this case that this woman is sick and has an acute gynecological illness, asking them to at least allow her to be transferred to the the Swiss Embassy until her trial time, which of course they turned down."

Shafiee said, “The charge of espionage is unwarranted" against his clients; however, even "in the impossible event that my clients were guilty of the charge of espionage, the punishment for this charge is one year in prison".

The lawyer added that the three Americans have not had any interrogation sessions during the past six to seven months.

The mother of Sarah Shourd has asked concerned people to write Iranian authorities to press for the release of the detainees. President Adbullah Wade of Senegal, who is also chairman of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, added his voice to those calling for the freeing of the trio.

0545 GMT: Family Protection. Straight into the news this morning....

The Parliament has rejected one of the provisions of the Family Protection Bill, which has been heatedly opposed by women's rights groups and many other activists. Article 21 for legal registration of "temporary marriages" was rejected with only 45 of 290 MPs voted for it.

The vote on Article 23, which makes it easier for men to pursue polygamy by dismissing the current conditions for the first wife’s consent and for proof of financial means, is still ahead.

The Latest from Iran (23 August): Political Cease-fire?

1830 GMT: Shh, Don't Mention the Sanctions. In an interview with former President Abulhassan Banisadr, Deutsche Welle refers to two directives from Iran's Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance. One banning newspapers from printing pictures and news of opposition figures has already been mentioned (see 0919 GMT).

The other is new to us: Iranian media have apparently been told to make no mention of the effects of sanctions.

NEW Iran Document: Interview with Detained Filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad
NEW Iran Special: Have Ahmadinejad and Ali Larijani Kissed and Made Up?
Iran: Today’s Shiny Object for Media? Why, It’s an Ambassador-of-Death Drone Bomber!
The Latest from Iran (22 August): Ahmadinejad Aide Mortazavi Suspended?

1800 GMT: The President's Men. Fars News is now carrying the story of the suspension of three officials over the Kahrizak Prison abuses, but does not name any of them, including Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi.

1745 GMT: MediaWatch (cont.). Thomas Erdbrink, writing in The Washington Post, is the first "Western" reporter to name Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi as one of the three officials suspended for alleged connections with post-election Kahrizak Prison abuses. Erdbrink quotes human rights lawyer Saleh Nikbakht, "Mortazavi is among them, and now that he no longer has judicial immunity, he could face trial."

And The Financial Times is clearly on a roll with its coverage of the in-fighting. Having noted the Supreme Leader's intervention on Wednesday (see 1735 GMT), the newspaper also features Najmeh Bozorgmehr's article "Shia Schism Deepens Ahmadi-Nejad's Woes": "The infighting between Iran’s fundamentalists has deepened the gulf between supporters and opponents of President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad."

1735 GMT: MediaWatch on The President's Men. Credit to Reuters for picking up on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's appointment of his chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, as one of his four "special representatives" for foreign policy --- Rahim-Mashai's responsibility will be the Near East --- and for putting that in the context of political battles within the establishment.

Not so sure, however, that Reuters' snap conclusion is on the mark: "[This suggests] for now that for now [Ahmadinejad] may have the upper hand over the critics." (Someone might want to consult Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.)

The Financial Times, belatedly but interestingly, notes the Supreme Leader's intervention last Wednesday and frames it as "Ayatollah Warns Bickering Politicians". The reporter, Monavar Khalaj, picks out this extract from Ayatollah Khamenei's statements, “I gave a serious warning to the officials not to make their differences public....Unity and solidarity among the country’s officials is a religious duty and the intentional rejection [of unity] is, especially in the upper echelon, against religious teachings.”

1720 GMT: Baby Basij. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, drawing from Aftab News, reports that female commander of the Basij militia, Zohreh Abbasi, has said that her unit has introduced a special program that allows baby girls to be registered as members of the force and receive training.

Abbasi said that, in the past six years, 23 baby girls had been trained as Basij members through "Koranic, cultural, educational, and military" classes.

"Basij mothers register their baby girls 40 days after they were born at the Hossein Haj Mousaee unit by presenting documents and IDs," Abbasi said. She declared that two babies have recently been born and  work is under way to prepare a dossiers for the new arrivals to enrol them in the special program.

1715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Detainees at Rajai Shahr Prison written to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, asking him to support human rights and labour activism.

1450 GMT: Energy Squeeze. Nabucco Gas Pipeline International GmbH, the company behind the amibitious Asia to Europe "gas bridge", will supply Europe through links to Turkey’s borders with Georgia and Iraq, rejecting a connection to the Turkish-Iranian border. Nabucco said the shareholders' decision was “due to the current political situation".

1335 GMT: MediaWatch (President's Man Edition). Almost 24 hours after the suspension of Ahmadinejad aide and former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi from his post because of alleged links to the Kahrizak Prison abuses, non-Iranian media --- like their counterparts in Tehran --- are not providing a name. The BBC, following the lead of the Associated Press, say only that "Iran has suspended three judicial officers".

1315 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Persian2English reports that Amnesty International and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands have expressed concern over the possibility of a death sentence for Zahra Bahrami, an Iranian-Dutch citizen arrested in Iran after the Ashura protests of 27 December.

1245 GMT: Tough Talk Today. Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, the Revolutionary Guard's Navy Commander, says Iran's missile-launching vessels are the best in the world for speed and power. “American warships currently have a maximum speed of 31 knots while Iranian vessels can travel twice as fast on average,” Fadavi said at a ceremony to open production lines for domestically-built Zolfaghar and Seraj craft.

1100 GMT: The Nuclear Front. Yesterday we noted, from a paragraph in a New York Times article on the Bushehr nuclear plant, the significant announcement that "Russia would provide Iran with iodine and molybdenum, nuclear isotopes used in medicine" and asked, "Will Iran withdraw its demand that it be allowed to enrich uranium to 20%, at least while discussions proceed on a long-term deal over the nuclear programme? And is Washington up-to-speed and supportive of the Russian move?"

An EA source offers an answer, noting this statement from the head of Iran's nuclear enrichment programme, Ali Akbar Salehi:

We will go as far as our needs are met. So we have no intention to proceed forever for enriching [uranium] to 20%, although it is our right according to the NPT [Non-Proliferation Treaty] and the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] statute to enrich uranium to any percentage that is needed for peaceful uses in nuclear energy. But this does not mean that we shall do so. We only embarked on 20% because of the conditions that were imposed on us. I reiterate that we will go as far as our needs are met.

Our source comments, "Seems to me that Iran is gearing up to offer this as a bargaining chip."

0919 GMT: Blackout in the Newspapers. Daneshjoo News publishes a document which it claims is a Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance order barring the names and pictures of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami from newspapers.

0918 GMT: Silence in the Theatre. Voice of America offers an overview of new restrictions by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance on Iran's theatre.

0915 GMT: We have published a separate feature: journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad, just before returning to prison last week, posted his comments in an interview for his website.

0739 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Jila Bani Yaghoub, the wife of journalist Bahman Ahmadi Amoui, one of 17 detainees who recently went on hunger strike in Evin Prison, has offered an update on her blog.

Bani Yaghoub says the hunger strikers, who ended their fast last week, are "weakened" but in excellent spirits. She claims that, when they were finally returned to the general ward --- Amoui was one of the last three prisoners to be let out of solitary confinement --- they knew already about the international "echo" of their protest.

0735 GMT: Cleric Stands Tough. Following yet another attempt by a crowd to intimidate him by gathering outside the Shiraz mosque where he presides, Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib has warned "those who meet clandestinely to attack Qoba Mosque again". He said that he is interpreting the Qu'ran in mosque, and all that his followers want is justice and implementation the Constitution.

0725 GMT: The Supreme Leader and the Students. More on Ayatollah Khamenei's three-hour meeting with student represenatives on Sunday....

The Supreme Leader declared, "I am united with all those who follow principles, but others are outside" the Iranian system. He added, "We must not eliminate people with weak religious belief on pretext of purifying society."

Khamenei admitted --- interestingly, in light of yesterday's news about the suspension of three officials --- that procedure in the Kahrizak abuse case had been slow.

0650 GMT: An Ahmadinejad-Ali Larijani Deal? Really?

Already EA correspondents are moving beyond the public face of a reconciliation between the President and the Speaker of Parliament --- considered in our special analysis this morning --- and the notion of a resolution between the Majlis and the Government is far from clear-cut.

First, the Ahmadinejad meeting with Parliament that preceded the press conference with Larijani....

The President, attending with Minister of Agriculture Sadegh Khalilian (who is under some pressure from the Majlis) and Minister of Economy Shamsoddin Hosseini, welcomed the monthly discussions. Then the questions began on topics which have been long-standing and growing sources of dispute: privatisation, proper implementation of laws, cultural problems (hijab), and the possible impeachment of Khalilian.

That in itself was a bit of a climb-down for Ahmadinejad, who had balked at given an account of his meetings, but it cut off an initiative by some MPs for formal questioning of the President. This, as well as the Supreme Leader's intervention on Wednesday, lay behind the good-news statements that followed the meeting: Ali Larijani said the Majlis has made the first step for unity of powers, while Ahmadinejad declared, "If you make good laws, the Government will implement them."

Whether that reconcililation holds is another issue. In the meeting, Ahmadinejad faced challenges, such as Mohammad Ebrahim Nekounam insisting on the Government's "duty" to implement Majlis legislation and Gholam-Ali Hadad Adel insisting that the President's enforcement of the "hijab and chastity project" is absolutely necessary. (As always, make what you will of the fact that this description is appearing in Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani.)

And there are signals of persistence, if not defiance, from each side. The President has given his Chief of Staff --- Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai --- a prime target for the criticisms of conservative MPs --- yet another post, appointing him as special representative for the Near East. (There have also been appointments for Asia, the Caspian Sea area, and Afghanistan.)

From the Parliamentary side, Mohammad Karami-Rad said that a meeting with Minister of Agriculture Khalilian, postponed because of Wednesday's discussions with the Supreme Leader, will take place and the Majlis will proceed with moves for impeachment.

0640 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Persian2English publishes a letter from Sepideh Pooraghaiee, a friend and colleague of Shiva Nazar Ahari, about the deatined human rights activist and journalist:

Shiva Nazar Ahari has acted very distinguishably throughout the years. She never allowed intimidations and threats to turn into an impenetrable dam against her sacred efforts. Along with her bravery and clarity, she also was calm, patient and hopeful. She never expected to be praised. She never compromised with the resolution of a problem, however small, for a human being.

Nazar Ahari has been imprisoned since July 2009 and reportedly faces a charge of "mohareb" (war against God), which carried the death penalty.

0630 GMT: A Kurdish Political Perspective. Rooz Online carries an interview with the head of the Komeleh Party, Abdollah Mohtadi. The opening exchange:

Rooz: The Komeleh Party and the Green Movement! Is this not strange?

Abdollah Mohtadi: No, I do not believe it to be strange. I view the green movement to be a rightful and democratic movement, and we support any such movement. Even though this movement has not cut its nuptial cord from people who I think are official reformers and is still connected to them, I do not view the green movement to be the simple extension and continuation of what has been known as the reformist path in Iran. On the contrary, I believe that impasse of that model of reforms and ineffectiveness of its methods in its confrontation of dictatorship and the inability of reforms to create change at the top, has caused the green movement to take shape from the bottom through the public to attain its demands.

0615 GMT: We begin today with a special analysis: has the Supreme Leader mediated a political compromise between President Ahmadinejad and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani? And is the Ahmadinejad-Larijani profession of co-operation more than a temporary, public measure?

Meanwhile....

Political Prisoner Watch

This week we have been noting the case of Abed Tavancheh, the student activist sentenced to one year in prison. To put further pressure on him, Iranian authorities have threatened to seize his family's home.

Now, according to Tavancheh's Facebook page --- as relayed to EA by a reader --- a deal has been proposed. The activist has been told that he should be at home on Wednesday, so agents accompanied by the relative who posted the house as bail can raid it and detain him. This way the relative has made a sign of co-operation and the house will not be confiscated.

Academic Corner

Students at Zanjan University staged a sit-in protest on Sunday to protest the firing of Professor Yousef Sobouti.

Iraq Video & Analysis: Odierno Sets Up the Long Haul Non-Withdrawal

A big US military public-relations push today, with General Raymond Odierno, the commander in Iraq, appearing on CNN's State of the Union (transcript) and CBS's Face the Nation as well as holding a press conference in Baghdad.

The set-up? American commanders are already looking beyond the nominal drawdown to 50,000 troops on 31 August --- the ostensible reason for the press coverage --- and even beyond the 2011 deadline for the removal of all combat troops. So Odierno is spinning a long-term "strategic partnership" with the Iraqis as the pretext for the continuing military commitment.

Iraq Special: When a War is Not Over (Bacevich)
Iraq Special: Obama Declares Victory. Sort Of. Depends How You Look at It. (The Onion)
Iraq Special: When a Withdrawal Is Not a Withdrawal (Alaaldin)

If all goes well, with an Iraqi government --- a "trustworthy" Iraqi government in Washington's eyes --- formed after months of stalemate, a downturn in violence, and a "reliable" Iraqi army and security forces, then perhaps the US can meet the nominal 2011 target of no combat troops. (Of course, numerous US support forces, trainers, and logistical personnel, as well as "private" American operators, will remain.)

And if all does not go well? Well, Odierno is ready for that, with promises that the US can re-introduce forces. In fact, he was quite happy to set out how that scenario might unfold. There was not only the possibility that the lack of security might draw back in US forces. There was also the prospect of an unacceptable external power grabbing influence.

Who might that be? As Voice of America summarises:

Iran is fueling instability in neighboring Iraq by funding and training Shi'ite extremist groups in the country.

General Ray Odierno told CNN on Sunday that Iran does not want Iraq to become a strong democratic country. He said Iran would rather see Iraq become a "weak governmental institution".

The Latest from Iran (10 August): An End to the Hunger Strike?

1400 GMT: Let's Keep Trying This Foreign Overthrow (and Drugs to Our Schoolchildren) Shtick. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, may have taken some criticism for claiming a US-Saudi $51 billion plot, through the Iranian opposition, for regime change, but that hasn't fazed Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi.

Moslehi said Monday that foreign powers had invested $17 billion in unrest after the 2009 Presidential election. He put this in the context of a long-term campaign, "In the past 25 years, more than 80 centres and institutions for soft war have been founded and around $2 billion has been spent on them annually."

The minister said enemy methods included "fuelling ethnic and religious sensitivities especially in border areas,...(and) efforts to spread delinquency among students through satellite [channels], the Internet, (and) vulgar books", corrupting Iran's education system.

And there was more, Moslehi warned: evidence pointed to large-scale and costly efforts to wage "soft war" in the country by distributing dugs among schoolchildren.

1300 GMT: The Iran Human Rights Documentation Center has issued its latest report, examining the Iranian Government's effort to dismantle the women's rights movement.

1220 GMT: The Human Rights Lawyer. Persian2English has posted the translation of a Voice of America interview with lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei, who has fled Iran and is now in Norway. An extract:

VOA Correspondent: Why did you leave Iran?

Mostafaei: I never wanted to leave Iran. Any time someone wanted to leave Iran, I always objected and told them that there is nowhere better to work than Iran. Unfortunately [the regime] created an atmosphere for me that made me unable to fulfil my duty, but even this was bearable. What made me decide to leave Iran is solely the illegal actions of the interrogator in Branch 2 of the Shahid Moghaddas investigations office [in Evin Prison]. He illegally ordered the arrest of my wife [Fereshteh Halimi] and a bail amount of approximately $6,000. She was thrown into solitary confinement and was not set to be released until I was turned in. They held her captive for fourteen days. [The illegal processes] made be decide to leave the place I belong to and begin the difficult [journey] to another country.

1210 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Student activist Majid Tavakoli, who was said to have lost consciousness while on hunger strike, is reportedly out of critical condition.

0925 GMT: More from VP Rahimi, International Affairs Expert. Ali Akbar Dareini offers this correction to our report yesterday on 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi's diatribe --- he called Australians a "bunch of cattlemen", not shepherds --- and adds this substantial point....

"To fight sanctions, we will remove the dollar and euro from our foreign exchange basket and will replace them with (the Iranian) rial and the currency of any country cooperating with us," Rahimi said. "We consider these currencies (dollar and euro) dirty and won't sell oil in dollar and euro."

The Iranian Government has said recently that it would trade in currencies like the dirham (United Arab Emirates), but it is unclear whether trading partners will be receptive to the idea.

Rahimi also said, "We will increase tariffs by 200 percent. We will hike it so much so that no one will be able to buy foreign goods. We should not buy the products of our enemies. Students can force their parents not to buy foreign goods."

0910 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi may have granted a concession that contributed to the end of the Evin Prison hunger strike; however, according to Rah-e-Sabz, he remains defiant on other fronts.

Doulatabadi reportedly said the news from prisons is "total lies", as Iran's jails are acting completely within the law. Claims such as that of an "honour assault" on Alireza Tajik are "inventions".

Doulatabadi may want to consider the testimony of 17-year-old Ali Niknam, who claims he was abused by Revolutionary Guard intelligence officers after his arrest on 2 November: “The signs of electrical shock were visible on my shoulder, stomach, and kidney area and I suffered from bloody bowels and urine for days after my release.”

0910 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Reports indicate that Japan may consider cutting crude oil imports from Iran, having approved new sanctions in line with June's UN Security Council resolution. Tokyo, following meetings with US officials, has added 40 companies and an individual to a blacklist for freezing of assets.

0900 GMT: The Vice President Talks World Politics (Again). It looks like 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi has decided to step up and become the Government's international affairs spokesman.

After his diatribe against the US, Australia, and "England", reported in yesterday's updates, Rahimi gets literary again, in a meeting told Iran's heads of education that "South Koreans need a slap in the face" for their imposition of sanctions on Tehran.

0710 GMT: The President's Right-Hand Man. More criticism of Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff and brother-in-law Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai....

Ayatolllah Mesbah Yazdi, in a meeting with Revolutionary Guard commanders on Monday, said, "Those who put principles (maktab) of Iran shamelessly before maktab of Islam do not belong to us! We only support those who support Islam and are loyal to the Supreme Leader."

0705 GMT: The New Battle --- Another Larijani v. Ahmadinejad.

Voice of America picks up on our featured story from Monday, the criticism by Iran's head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

One Washington-based analyst, Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute, claims Ayatollah Khamenei is now involved: "The Supreme Leader is giving Ali Larijani the tools to stand up to the president."

0700 GMT: The claimed message from the political prisoners who have ended their hunger strike:

We will continue to insist on our human rights and the basic rights of all prisoners. We pledge to continue to fight until all prisoners who are part of our beloved nation gain access to their full legal rights.

0650 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Kalemeh is carrying the message of an "anonymous loyal support of the Greens" that all but one hunger striker has ended the protest. There are no further details.

Another website made the claim on Sunday. It is unclear whether the same anonymous source is behind both that report and Kalemeh's article.

0545 GMT: We begin today with two features and a disturbing piece of news.

In the features, Jon Lee Anderson of The New Yorker gets a 10-day visit to Iran and meets the public, with their discontent over the election, as well as President Ahmadinejad. And Arash Aramesh of insideIRAN writes about the audio that may point to Revolutionary Guard interference in the June 2009 election.

The news, from RAHANA, is that student activist Majid Tavakoli --- one of 16 or 17 political prisoners in Evin Prison --- has lost consciousness and is now in the prison infirmary.

More updates to follow...