China Economy Weekly: Foreign Reserves; Investment and Trade Surges; Co-operation with India and with General Motors

China's Foreign Exchange Reserves: China has diversified its foreign reserves by cutting US Treasury bond holdings and increasing Japanese debt holdings.

According to data released by the US Treasury Department, China held nearly $843.7 billion of US debt at the end of June, $94.6 billion less than the peak of $938.3 billion it held in September 2009. Despite the fall, China is still the largest US debt holder, followed by Japan and the United Kingdom.

China This Week: Geological Disasters; US-Chinese Relations; Carbon Emissions

As the nation trims its US exposure, it has been expanding its Japanese debt buys. China has purchased $20 billion worth of Japanese treasury debt for six consecutive months, almost five times the total increase of its holdings during the past five years.

China has alsodoubled South Korean debt holdings and bought more mortgage bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest US home funding companies.

South Korean treasury bonds held by Chinese investors rose 111 percent to 3.99 trillion won ($3.4 billion) in the first half of the year, while mortgage bond holdings, including those of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, by nearly $5.6 billion in June.

China Moves to quell concerns over Foreign Innovation: Addressing concerns about local bias in government procurement, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said innovation by foreign-invested companies enjoys equal support if at least 50 percent of a product's added industrial value comes from operations in China.

Chen made the remarks during a meeting in Beijing with Doris Leuthard, president of the Swiss Confederation and minister of Swiss Economic Affairs.

In November, China's Ministry of Science and Technology, National Development and Reform Commission, and Ministry of Finance jointly announced that China-made innovation would be given priority in government procurement. The policy stirred unease among foreign investors concerned they could be locked out of China's vast government purchases.

China-Related Mergers and Acquisitions Rebound:  Most China-related merger and acquisition deals have rebounded strongly in the first half of the year, and set the scene for robust activity for the remainder of 2010 and into 2011, accounting firm PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) reported.

Chinese outbound merger and acquisition deals for the first six months of 2010 reached record levels, up by more than 50% over the same period last year.

Natural resources are the main industry target for Chinese investors overseas. Though Australia is identified as the main target destination, Africa is growing in prominence for Chinese resource investors.

"Although natural resources continue to be the priority industry target for Chinese investors overseas, we are seeing other industries starting to get increased attention, including technology, manufacturing and services industries," said Andrew Li, Transaction Services Partner at PwC. "Meanwhile, investors are broadening their target regions to include the United States, Japan and the European Union."

India aims to Double Trade with China: India is striving to double bilateral trade with China, its largest trading partner, within four years, according to Subas Pani, chairman of the India Trade Promotion Organization.

Bilateral trade between India and China has risen dramatically over the last decade. From a modest $3 billion at the turn of the century, annual trade reached $42 billion in 2008-09. The level reached $32 billion in the first half of 2010 and is expected to exceed $60 billion for the year.

China's Trade Surplus to Shrink: The Ministry of Commerce on Tuesday said China's trade surplus is expected to shrink gradually in the next few months, as the government adopts more stimulus measures to boost imports.

China's trade surplus for July surged unexpectedly to an 18-month high of $28.7 billion as exports grew 38.1% year on year to a record high of $145.5 billion. Growth in imports fell to 22.7% from 34.1% in June.

The slower growth in imports is the latest sign that China's curbs on the real estate sector are affecting demand, and many economists said the trade surplus will remain high as import growth continues to decelerate.

Foreign Direct Investment Surge: The Ministry of Commerce reported that the foreign direct investment (FDI) rose by 29.2% year-on-year to $6.92 billion in July, the 12th consecutive monthly gain and the fourth month this year that the increase was above 20 percent.

The high growth was buoyed up by larger volume of foreign funds into the service sector and China's western and northeastern regions, and the trends will continue, analysts said.

"No systemic risk" for local borrowings: The Chinese government said risks related to borrowing by local government-backed investment units are "controllable" and would not cause systemic damage to the economy, as it worked out detailed measures to clean up financing of these vehicles.

Some economists are concerned that the problem of local government debt could destabilize the financial system of the world's fastest-growing major economy if not managed properly. They especially cite the central government's tightening of the housing market, which could affect local fiscal revenue and make debt repayment more difficult.

Local governments are not allowed to borrow directly from banks or issue bonds to fund deficits and support infrastructure construction. In consequence, many have set up investment vehicles by using land and fiscal revenue as collateral.

Alliance Promotes Electric cars: An alliance of sixteen of the largest State-owned companies wants to accelerate development of electric vehicles in China, a move which underscores the country's ambition to be a world leader in new energy vehicles.

The alliance, formed on Wednesday, is gearing up to invest 100 billion yuan ($14.7 billion) on electric vehicles by 2012. Guided by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC), it was formed by almost all the major players in related sectors, including the country's top three oil majors, top two power grid operators, and two major automakers --- China FAW Group Corp and Dongfeng Auto Corp.

SAIC, GM Form New Business Model: China's biggest automaker SAIC Motor Corp Ltd and General Motors Co announced plans to jointly develop fuel-efficient engines and transmissions on Wednesday.

Under the agreement both sides will together develop a new small-displacement gasoline engine family and an advanced transmission, which will be used by GM and SAIC in China and future vehicles worldwide.

"The cooperation kicks off a new business model for China's automobile industry", said Hu Maoyuan, chairman of SAIC.

Chinese "Investor Immigrants" Inject Money Into Canada: Billions of yuan may be transferred to Canadian banks every year from China after the media reported that Chinese are now the top seekers of permanent residency in the country.

In 2009 alone, Canada admitted more than 25,000 permanent residents from the Chinese mainland. Around 2,000 applicants moved there after being wooed by Canada's immigration policies for overseas investors, which require a minimum net personal worth of C$800,000 ($771,395) and investment of C$400,000.

Both before and after arrival in Canada, applicants can transfer at least C$500,000 to Canadian banks for living expenses, according to sources familiar with the immigration industry.

Total yuan deposits in Canada may reach 6.7 billion yuan this year if another 2,000 Chinese investor immigrants enter.

E-Commerce Surges: China's e-commerce industry is expected to see rapid growth in the next few years, with the average annual increase surpassing 35%.

Qian Xiaoqian, deputy director of the State Council Information Office, said online shopping is become more and more popular in the nation. "E-commerce sales volumes surged to 3.6 trillion yuan ($530 billion) last year," said Qian. He said the Internet industry is also changing from an entertainment-oriented approach to a more balanced structure offering diversified services.

The Latest from Iran (10 August): An End to the Hunger Strike?

1400 GMT: Let's Keep Trying This Foreign Overthrow (and Drugs to Our Schoolchildren) Shtick. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, may have taken some criticism for claiming a US-Saudi $51 billion plot, through the Iranian opposition, for regime change, but that hasn't fazed Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi.

Moslehi said Monday that foreign powers had invested $17 billion in unrest after the 2009 Presidential election. He put this in the context of a long-term campaign, "In the past 25 years, more than 80 centres and institutions for soft war have been founded and around $2 billion has been spent on them annually."

The minister said enemy methods included "fuelling ethnic and religious sensitivities especially in border areas,...(and) efforts to spread delinquency among students through satellite [channels], the Internet, (and) vulgar books", corrupting Iran's education system.

And there was more, Moslehi warned: evidence pointed to large-scale and costly efforts to wage "soft war" in the country by distributing dugs among schoolchildren.

1300 GMT: The Iran Human Rights Documentation Center has issued its latest report, examining the Iranian Government's effort to dismantle the women's rights movement.

1220 GMT: The Human Rights Lawyer. Persian2English has posted the translation of a Voice of America interview with lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei, who has fled Iran and is now in Norway. An extract:

VOA Correspondent: Why did you leave Iran?

Mostafaei: I never wanted to leave Iran. Any time someone wanted to leave Iran, I always objected and told them that there is nowhere better to work than Iran. Unfortunately [the regime] created an atmosphere for me that made me unable to fulfil my duty, but even this was bearable. What made me decide to leave Iran is solely the illegal actions of the interrogator in Branch 2 of the Shahid Moghaddas investigations office [in Evin Prison]. He illegally ordered the arrest of my wife [Fereshteh Halimi] and a bail amount of approximately $6,000. She was thrown into solitary confinement and was not set to be released until I was turned in. They held her captive for fourteen days. [The illegal processes] made be decide to leave the place I belong to and begin the difficult [journey] to another country.

1210 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Student activist Majid Tavakoli, who was said to have lost consciousness while on hunger strike, is reportedly out of critical condition.

0925 GMT: More from VP Rahimi, International Affairs Expert. Ali Akbar Dareini offers this correction to our report yesterday on 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi's diatribe --- he called Australians a "bunch of cattlemen", not shepherds --- and adds this substantial point....

"To fight sanctions, we will remove the dollar and euro from our foreign exchange basket and will replace them with (the Iranian) rial and the currency of any country cooperating with us," Rahimi said. "We consider these currencies (dollar and euro) dirty and won't sell oil in dollar and euro."

The Iranian Government has said recently that it would trade in currencies like the dirham (United Arab Emirates), but it is unclear whether trading partners will be receptive to the idea.

Rahimi also said, "We will increase tariffs by 200 percent. We will hike it so much so that no one will be able to buy foreign goods. We should not buy the products of our enemies. Students can force their parents not to buy foreign goods."

0910 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi may have granted a concession that contributed to the end of the Evin Prison hunger strike; however, according to Rah-e-Sabz, he remains defiant on other fronts.

Doulatabadi reportedly said the news from prisons is "total lies", as Iran's jails are acting completely within the law. Claims such as that of an "honour assault" on Alireza Tajik are "inventions".

Doulatabadi may want to consider the testimony of 17-year-old Ali Niknam, who claims he was abused by Revolutionary Guard intelligence officers after his arrest on 2 November: “The signs of electrical shock were visible on my shoulder, stomach, and kidney area and I suffered from bloody bowels and urine for days after my release.”

0910 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Reports indicate that Japan may consider cutting crude oil imports from Iran, having approved new sanctions in line with June's UN Security Council resolution. Tokyo, following meetings with US officials, has added 40 companies and an individual to a blacklist for freezing of assets.

0900 GMT: The Vice President Talks World Politics (Again). It looks like 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi has decided to step up and become the Government's international affairs spokesman.

After his diatribe against the US, Australia, and "England", reported in yesterday's updates, Rahimi gets literary again, in a meeting told Iran's heads of education that "South Koreans need a slap in the face" for their imposition of sanctions on Tehran.

0710 GMT: The President's Right-Hand Man. More criticism of Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff and brother-in-law Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai....

Ayatolllah Mesbah Yazdi, in a meeting with Revolutionary Guard commanders on Monday, said, "Those who put principles (maktab) of Iran shamelessly before maktab of Islam do not belong to us! We only support those who support Islam and are loyal to the Supreme Leader."

0705 GMT: The New Battle --- Another Larijani v. Ahmadinejad.

Voice of America picks up on our featured story from Monday, the criticism by Iran's head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

One Washington-based analyst, Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute, claims Ayatollah Khamenei is now involved: "The Supreme Leader is giving Ali Larijani the tools to stand up to the president."

0700 GMT: The claimed message from the political prisoners who have ended their hunger strike:

We will continue to insist on our human rights and the basic rights of all prisoners. We pledge to continue to fight until all prisoners who are part of our beloved nation gain access to their full legal rights.

0650 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Kalemeh is carrying the message of an "anonymous loyal support of the Greens" that all but one hunger striker has ended the protest. There are no further details.

Another website made the claim on Sunday. It is unclear whether the same anonymous source is behind both that report and Kalemeh's article.

0545 GMT: We begin today with two features and a disturbing piece of news.

In the features, Jon Lee Anderson of The New Yorker gets a 10-day visit to Iran and meets the public, with their discontent over the election, as well as President Ahmadinejad. And Arash Aramesh of insideIRAN writes about the audio that may point to Revolutionary Guard interference in the June 2009 election.

The news, from RAHANA, is that student activist Majid Tavakoli --- one of 16 or 17 political prisoners in Evin Prison --- has lost consciousness and is now in the prison infirmary.

More updates to follow...