How Do You Solve A Problem Like Pakistan in Afghanistan? (Mull Responds to Ackerman)

EA correspondent Josh Mull is the Afghanistan Blogging Fellow for The Seminal and Brave New Foundation. He also writes for Rethink Afghanistan:

How are we going to deal with Pakistan when they are openly flaunting their proxy war against the United States? How should we respond when they say stuff like "we know where the [Taliban] shadow government is"? Or this:

“We picked up Baradar and the others because they were trying to make a deal without us,” said a Pakistani security official, who, like numerous people interviewed about the operation, spoke anonymously because of the delicacy of relations between Pakistan, Afghanistan and the United States. “We protect the Taliban. They are dependent on us. We are not going to allow them to make a deal with Karzai and the Indians.”

Pakistan: Floods, Bombings, & A Drone Strike (Cole)

Pakistan protects the Taliban. That's in addition to them training and equipping various Taliban militias and even funding suicide attacks and improvised explosive devices against American troops. We, as in you the American taxpayer, give Pakistan billions of dollars in aid and weaponry, including directly reimbursing them for their army operations (down to paying for the bullets fired). And yet they're killing our troops and protecting insurgents/terrorists.

Our relationship with Pakistan is deeply, deeply flawed. How do we fix this?

Spencer Ackerman suggests diplomacy, and I wholeheartedly agree. The American people are howling at the gates of congress to end these trillion-dollar, decade-long wars of occupation and aggression, and there is simply no conceivable military solution to any of our problems, whether that's Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, or Iran. Diplomacy has to be the way to go.

Ackerman writes:

An envoy from the administration needs to say: "We’re on board with that sentiment 100 percent! Pakistan should under no circumstances be cut out of a deal. We’re happy to see that you guys talk to Hamid Karzai’s government now without the binding mechanism of our trilateral summitry. Believe us, we want you doing that, because it should convince you that Pakistan has an interlocutor in Karzai, not an obstacle to Pakistani interests in a post-conflict Afghanistan.

Look, we get it: you sponsor the Taliban because you want strategic depth on your eastern border. You can get that from Karzai; and we’re here to help you get it! Pakistan can have a role in South Asia commensurate with the great power that it is!

And because we’re so sincere about that, we want you involved in the peace talks in a very specific way. We want you to deliver the Taliban and the Haqqanis to the table, under whatever circumstances of amnesty work for you. Then we want you to guarantee that in a post-war Afghanistan, they’re not backsliding on their commitments to backsliding on al-Qaeda. We’re going to put that on you. Look at that: you get an important role in Afghanistan, and it allows us to bring the war to a steady conclusion on mutually-agreeable terms. You win, we win, Karzai wins, the Taliban… kind of win (yeah, we said it), our mutual enemies in al-Qaeda (and the Pak Taliban!) lose. Now who wants flood relief?

Oh, and in case we need to say it: if we start seeing al-Qaeda slipping back into the country, it’s wrath-of-God time."

"We're on board 100 percent!" Boy, that should really scare the hell out of the Pakistanis. Ackerman, for whatever reason, seems to interpret "diplomacy" as "giving Pakistan everything it could possibly want". This is the wrong approach. In negotiations, you start with the extreme of what you want, and then negotiate down to a compromise. Ackerman has done exactly the opposite.

Let's take the statement line by line.

We’re on board with that sentiment 100 percent! Pakistan should under no circumstances be cut out of a deal. We’re happy to see that you guys talk to Hamid Karzai’s government now without the binding mechanism of our trilateral summitry.

If I were Pakistan, I'd stop you right there. "You agree 100 percent? Good, then shut up and keep the money coming. Make the check out to General Kayani, that's K-A-Y..."

Look, we get it: you sponsor the Taliban because you want strategic depth on your eastern border. You can get that from Karzai; and we’re here to help you get it! Pakistan can have a role in South Asia commensurate with the great power that it is!

So much wrong here. First of all, it's not enough to "get it" that Pakistan's national security policy is based on support for violent militias and terrorist organizations. The reason some of us have been shouting "strategic depth" from the rooftops is because that policy is illegal, destabilising, and unimaginably dangerous both regionally and globally. It is not OK: we already "get" why they do it, we have to figure out a way to stop it.

Next, Ackerman suggests that Pakistan can get their strategic depth from Karzai, with America even offering to help. There's no other way to read that than as a blatant concession that the US does not consider Afghanistan to be a sovereign country, but rather as an Imperial Colony of Pakistan and the United States ruled by a pliant puppet government. Forget all that stuff about democratic elections, about standing up a stable, non-corrupt Afghan government, about creating a secure Afghanistan capable of protecting itself from terrorists. We were just kidding, we actually think Karzai is just on our strings and that Pakistan should be able to inflict as much violence and terrorism on Afghanistan as it wants.

We'll skip over the part about Pakistan being a "great power" since it is one of the most corrupt, violent, unstable countries on Earth, as well as the premier state sponsor of terrorism in Central Asia, if not the entire globe. But then again, I guess if Ackerman believes that total capitulation = diplomacy, then sure, corrupt, terrorist-supporting tyrants = great power. Why not? Words don't mean anything.

And because we’re so sincere about that, we want you involved in the peace talks in a very specific way. We want you to deliver the Taliban and the Haqqanis to the table, under whatever circumstances of amnesty work for you. Then we want you to guarantee that in a post-war Afghanistan, they’re not backsliding on their commitments to backsliding on al-Qaeda. We’re going to put that on you.

We want Pakistan involved in peace talks in whatever way works for them? That's already happening. Remember the New York Times article about how they're using Baradar's capture as leverage in the peace talks? It's dumb enough to concede everything the Pakistanis want, but then it's even stupider to "offer" them things they already have to begin with.

And just how is Pakistan supposed to keep its guarantees on Al-Qa'eda? We've already conceded strategic depth, and their support of Al-Qa'eda affiliates is part of that, so what is this "backsliding" stuff we're talking about?

This is why you don't open negotiations, "Sure, we agree with everything!" There are no guarantees or backsliding after you give them everything. That's what "100 percent" means. It means all of it. You can't say "OK, you can support terrorists, but make sure you don't support terrorists."

Look at that: you get an important role in Afghanistan, and it allows us to bring the war to a steady conclusion on mutually-agreeable terms. You win, we win, Karzai wins, the Taliban… kind of win (yeah, we said it), our mutual enemies in al-Qaeda (and the Pak Taliban!) lose.

Pakistan won when we opened with "we're on board 100 percent". We "win" because...why? We got nothing, we just gave Pakistan everything it wanted, including what they already have now. Karzai "wins" because he gets to be a US and Pakistani puppet.

And Al-Qa'eda, how do they lose? Magic, I suppose. As for the Pakistani Taliban, they aren't even mentioned.

Who actually loses from all of this? The people of Afghanistan and Pakistan, of course, since they're left to either the "great powers" in Islamabad who support terrorism and militancy or to our corrupt puppet Hamid Karzai in Kabul.

But wait, Ackerman isn't done showing us how diplomacy works.

Now who wants flood relief?

Get it? We're conditioning our flood relief for the tens of millions of affected people in Pakistan entirely on our selfish foreign policy goals. Do we not understand the difference between General Kayani and a displaced, starving child in a refugee camp? Sure, the floods are a national security issue for the United States, but they are not an opportunity to extract a price from the victims.

Oh, and in case we need to say it: if we start seeing al-Qaeda slipping back into the country, it’s wrath-of-God time.

Just what the hell is that supposed to mean? Are we threatening Pakistan? If so, with what? Didn't we open this conversation by establishing that there is NO military solution? If all it takes to eradicate terrorism and militancy in Afghanistan and Pakistan is "wrath-of-God time", then by all means, do it now. Except this is bulls**t; it doesn't mean anything.

Pakistan's Army Chief, General Kayani, and the head of its intelligence service, General Pasha, arenot starry-eyed national security bloggers who think that the words "wrath-of-God time" are impressive or intimidating. The people we're dealing with have their own army (bigger than ours), their own airplanes, their own special forces, and, of course, their own terrorist and insurgent organizations. They're not afraid of us or our hollow threats. If they were, they wouldn't be saying things in the newspaper like "we know where the shadow government is".

If we have a specific threat, then spit it out. Will we invade the tribal areas? Will we drone strike General Kayani? Carpet bomb Rawalpindi and Islamabad? What is it exactly that we mean by "wrath-of-God time"?

All together, what do we have? Our "diplomacy" looks like giving Pakistan everything it wants and then capping it off with threatening them. That's not really diplomacy, is it? It's the status quo and a military threat. Would it be over-the-top to just write FAIL?

So what are some real options for dealing with Pakistan? Here are a few suggestions, keeping in mind that you open negotiations with the most extreme options and then work backwards.

• Call a peace summit with all relevant players, including representatives from Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Jammu & Kashmir, Russia, United States, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, China, and Iran


• Cut off all military aid to Pakistan


• Cut off all (non-disaster) civilian aid to Pakistan


• Blacklist the Pakistan Army and intelligence services as terrorist organizations


• Pursue United Nations or unilateral economic sanctions against the top leadership of the Pakistani Army, the intelligence services, as well as ruling elites in the ruling PPP political party


• Call for new, internationally monitored and vetted elections in Pakistan and condition all (non-disaster) aid on the legitimacy of these elections


• Provide economic and diplomatic support for Pakistani opposition groups, including grassroots (the Lawyers movement) and political parties (PML-N)


• Publicly release/de-classify all US intelligence on Pakistan's support of terrorism, including wiretap audio and satellite imagery


• Publicly call for an end to the Pakistani occupation of Balochistan and Kashmir


• Provide diplomatic and economic support, including recognition, of an autonomous Balochistan


• Provide diplomatic and economic support, including recognition, of an Independent Kashmir


• Dramatically increase civilian and military aid to India (call it "Strategic Depth")


• Offer India a permanent seat on the United Nations security council


• Allow India to utilize American military bases in Afghanistan and Central Asia for "training exercises"


• Invite India to the NATO mission in Afghanistan, requiring some contribution of security forces

Crazy stuff, right? But it's not giving Pakistan whatever it wants, and it's not threatening military action against them either. Either they give up their support of terrorism and militancy, or we start talking about the options above.

Ackerman wrote:

When people mouth the truism that There’s No Military Solution To The Afghanistan War, they’re both right and typically uncreative about thinking through what A Political Solution To The Afghanistan War looks like. I submit that the imagined diplomatic proposal above is an opening gambit.

I wouldn't say my options are as "creative" as Ackerman's suggestion to give Pakistan whatever it wants, but consider the options I listed above as my response to his "opening gambit".

China Economy Weekly: Foreign Reserves; Investment and Trade Surges; Co-operation with India and with General Motors

China's Foreign Exchange Reserves: China has diversified its foreign reserves by cutting US Treasury bond holdings and increasing Japanese debt holdings.

According to data released by the US Treasury Department, China held nearly $843.7 billion of US debt at the end of June, $94.6 billion less than the peak of $938.3 billion it held in September 2009. Despite the fall, China is still the largest US debt holder, followed by Japan and the United Kingdom.

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As the nation trims its US exposure, it has been expanding its Japanese debt buys. China has purchased $20 billion worth of Japanese treasury debt for six consecutive months, almost five times the total increase of its holdings during the past five years.

China has alsodoubled South Korean debt holdings and bought more mortgage bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest US home funding companies.

South Korean treasury bonds held by Chinese investors rose 111 percent to 3.99 trillion won ($3.4 billion) in the first half of the year, while mortgage bond holdings, including those of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, by nearly $5.6 billion in June.

China Moves to quell concerns over Foreign Innovation: Addressing concerns about local bias in government procurement, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said innovation by foreign-invested companies enjoys equal support if at least 50 percent of a product's added industrial value comes from operations in China.

Chen made the remarks during a meeting in Beijing with Doris Leuthard, president of the Swiss Confederation and minister of Swiss Economic Affairs.

In November, China's Ministry of Science and Technology, National Development and Reform Commission, and Ministry of Finance jointly announced that China-made innovation would be given priority in government procurement. The policy stirred unease among foreign investors concerned they could be locked out of China's vast government purchases.

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Chinese outbound merger and acquisition deals for the first six months of 2010 reached record levels, up by more than 50% over the same period last year.

Natural resources are the main industry target for Chinese investors overseas. Though Australia is identified as the main target destination, Africa is growing in prominence for Chinese resource investors.

"Although natural resources continue to be the priority industry target for Chinese investors overseas, we are seeing other industries starting to get increased attention, including technology, manufacturing and services industries," said Andrew Li, Transaction Services Partner at PwC. "Meanwhile, investors are broadening their target regions to include the United States, Japan and the European Union."

India aims to Double Trade with China: India is striving to double bilateral trade with China, its largest trading partner, within four years, according to Subas Pani, chairman of the India Trade Promotion Organization.

Bilateral trade between India and China has risen dramatically over the last decade. From a modest $3 billion at the turn of the century, annual trade reached $42 billion in 2008-09. The level reached $32 billion in the first half of 2010 and is expected to exceed $60 billion for the year.

China's Trade Surplus to Shrink: The Ministry of Commerce on Tuesday said China's trade surplus is expected to shrink gradually in the next few months, as the government adopts more stimulus measures to boost imports.

China's trade surplus for July surged unexpectedly to an 18-month high of $28.7 billion as exports grew 38.1% year on year to a record high of $145.5 billion. Growth in imports fell to 22.7% from 34.1% in June.

The slower growth in imports is the latest sign that China's curbs on the real estate sector are affecting demand, and many economists said the trade surplus will remain high as import growth continues to decelerate.

Foreign Direct Investment Surge: The Ministry of Commerce reported that the foreign direct investment (FDI) rose by 29.2% year-on-year to $6.92 billion in July, the 12th consecutive monthly gain and the fourth month this year that the increase was above 20 percent.

The high growth was buoyed up by larger volume of foreign funds into the service sector and China's western and northeastern regions, and the trends will continue, analysts said.

"No systemic risk" for local borrowings: The Chinese government said risks related to borrowing by local government-backed investment units are "controllable" and would not cause systemic damage to the economy, as it worked out detailed measures to clean up financing of these vehicles.

Some economists are concerned that the problem of local government debt could destabilize the financial system of the world's fastest-growing major economy if not managed properly. They especially cite the central government's tightening of the housing market, which could affect local fiscal revenue and make debt repayment more difficult.

Local governments are not allowed to borrow directly from banks or issue bonds to fund deficits and support infrastructure construction. In consequence, many have set up investment vehicles by using land and fiscal revenue as collateral.

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The alliance, formed on Wednesday, is gearing up to invest 100 billion yuan ($14.7 billion) on electric vehicles by 2012. Guided by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC), it was formed by almost all the major players in related sectors, including the country's top three oil majors, top two power grid operators, and two major automakers --- China FAW Group Corp and Dongfeng Auto Corp.

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Under the agreement both sides will together develop a new small-displacement gasoline engine family and an advanced transmission, which will be used by GM and SAIC in China and future vehicles worldwide.

"The cooperation kicks off a new business model for China's automobile industry", said Hu Maoyuan, chairman of SAIC.

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In 2009 alone, Canada admitted more than 25,000 permanent residents from the Chinese mainland. Around 2,000 applicants moved there after being wooed by Canada's immigration policies for overseas investors, which require a minimum net personal worth of C$800,000 ($771,395) and investment of C$400,000.

Both before and after arrival in Canada, applicants can transfer at least C$500,000 to Canadian banks for living expenses, according to sources familiar with the immigration industry.

Total yuan deposits in Canada may reach 6.7 billion yuan this year if another 2,000 Chinese investor immigrants enter.

E-Commerce Surges: China's e-commerce industry is expected to see rapid growth in the next few years, with the average annual increase surpassing 35%.

Qian Xiaoqian, deputy director of the State Council Information Office, said online shopping is become more and more popular in the nation. "E-commerce sales volumes surged to 3.6 trillion yuan ($530 billion) last year," said Qian. He said the Internet industry is also changing from an entertainment-oriented approach to a more balanced structure offering diversified services.