Israel-Palestine: The Hamas Factor

First, Hamas accused its rival Palestinian party, Fatah, of “waging war on Islam and Allah” by detaining and firing hundreds of imams and shutting down hundreds of centers for teaching the Koran in the West Bank". Then, last Sunday, it postponed a meeting with Fatah indefinitely, due to the Palestinian Authority's decision to enter direct talks with Israel.

On Tuesday, Hamas' exiled leader Khaled Mashaal said that direct talks are "illegitimate" and are "the result of coercion by Washington". He called on Fatah to "wake up" and added: "Do not allow for these adventures and sins to take place under your name."

Middle East Inside Line: “Warm” Turkish-Israeli Relations; Latest on Israel-Palestine Talks

Meshaal also called on Cairo and Jordan to "boycott" the negotiations: "The results of these negotiations will be catastrophic for the interests and the security of Jordan and Egypt."

On Wednesday, while Hamas detained four members of the rival Islamic Jihad, a source told Haaretz that the Palestinian Authority has arrested dozens of Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants in the West Bank over the past two weeks. In a contrasting sign, Gaza's sole power plant, generating 25% of the electricity for the area, was reactivated after Hamas rulers reached agreement on fuel payments to Ramallah.

Despite all these developments, no one is mentioning Gaza and Hamas ahead of the beginning of the direct talks between the Israeli Government and the Palestinian Authority. Reuters' Douglas Hamilton points to the "ghost at the Mideast banquet":

Even if Israel and the Palestinians can scale a mountain of skepticism and reach a peace treaty in the next 12 months, 40 percent of Palestinians would be part of it in name only, because they live in the Gaza Strip.

Gaza's Islamist Hamas rulers say they will never give Israel what it most wants from a Middle East deal, which is recognition of the Jewish state and a legitimate place in the Middle East.

A settlement to "establish a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza," as key texts have put it for 20 years, would start life with a fictional element. As things stand now, about 1.7 million Palestinians would be excluded from statehood.

So, what can be done? One option is an Israeli reoccupation of Gaza; in contrast, Hamas could be recognised and invited to the negotiations in Washington. The first possibility would not only discredit Israel in the eyes of the international community but would double violence against West Jerusalem. The second possibility cannot be tolerated by West Jerusalem, given the social and political situation in Israel, and the Palestinian Authority will not be receptive.

Daniel Byman puts forth an intermediate option:

If Hamas cannot be uprooted, it might be convinced to not disrupt peace talks with violence and tone down its rhetoric. In order for Hamas to want a lasting cease-fire, Israel and its allies must change the organization’s decision-making calculus — a process that will require both incentives and threats.

One way to go about this would be for Israel to allow the regular flow of goods into Gaza with international, rather than Israeli, monitors manning the crossing points. Israeli intelligence would still watch what goes in and out to ensure that the monitors did their job, but symbolically the switch would be important.

In exchange, Hamas would commit to a lasting cease-fire and agree to stop all attacks from the territory under its control. Hamas would also close the tunnels and end its smuggling.

Such a deal would allow Hamas to claim credit for improving the lives of Gazans, and it could use the resulting increase in the flow of goods to reward its supporters. For Israel, the regular rocket attacks would come to a complete halt and the threat of renewed attacks would diminish.

This still appears to be wishful thinking. Hamas' priority is not to increase its per capita GDP and become a financial rival of the West Bank. Whatever the economic progress, the Gazan leadership would risk the appearance of being no more than a complementary organisation to Fatah. Instead, Hamas needs its social organisations to obtain as much support as possible from Gazans, in the face of "difficulties", to position itself as preferable to Fatah.

Handing the reins to an international organisation would also raise issues for Hamas, notably over its "transparency" on political and economic areas, and it would take away one of its biggest political weapons --- its claim of insufficient aid for Gazans --- used for the "legitimisation" of its struggle against Israel.

Nor should one expect Hamas to be silent over the prospect of direct talks with a lasting cease-fire. Such a peace agreement could herald the the hardest days for the organisation as it positioned itself both against Israel and against the Palestinian Authority and Fatah.

So, what is left? Hamas will settle for no less than political recognition. If that is not possible in the short term, because of Israel's internal position as well as negotiating stance, then it must be envisaged further down the road. Hammering Hamas after an Israel-Palestinian Authority peace agreement is far more risky than putting in effort for a Hamas-Fatah agreement for a single body representing Palestinians. Only then, can there be a Palestinian leadership with a stronger position, with more acceptance of its legitimacy, both in the eyes of Palestinians and of the rest of the world.

So, if the short-term answer to the "Hamas factor" is No Dialogue Now, that cannot stand --- provided one is looking for stability --- for No Dialogue Later.

Palestine-Israel Analysis: Ramallah's "One Month Trial" and Netanyahu's "Security Card"

After half the members of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization failed to attend the discussion over direct talks with Israel, the Palestinian Ma'an News Agency reported that Hamas cancelled Saturday's reconciliation meeting with Fatah.

According to the London-based Arab language daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi, the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has re-labeled the talks as a two-stage process: a one-month trial period to see if Israel's Netanyahu Government will extend the freeze on West Bank settlements and then direct talks focusing on core issues.

Israel-Palestine: Forget the Hype, Talks Are Going Nowhere (Walt)

For that second stage of the talks, Abbas suggested that the Quartet --- in which Russia, European Union, and United Nations sit with the US --- can press Washington to get Israel to reveal its hand, behind closed doors, on the borders of a future Palestinian state. In a letter, Abbas urged the Quartet members to abide by resolutions of the UN pertaining to the Israeli-Arab conflict, the principles of the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference, the 2002 road map and the 2002-2007 Arab Peace Initiative.

Azzam al-Ahmed, a senior Fatah official who also serves as an adviser to Abbas, expressed dismay over Washington’s failure to invite representatives of all the Quartet members to the launch of direct talks in Washington early next month.

On the Israeli front, Prime Minister Netanyahu is preparing to use his best card, "security issues", as soon as the talks commence. Over the weekend, Netanyahu said he plans to focus on security arrangements before addressing final borders. (That means "drawing final borders across security arrangements". If Israeli forces are deployed in the Jordan Valley and most of the 500.000 Israeli settlers are kept as a buffer force for the Israeli state from missiles, then the lines have more or less been drawn.)

Netanyahu increased the pressure by depicting a "real partner on the Palestinian side, sincere and serious in negotiations, negotiations which will require both sides to take necessary measures, not only the Israeli side but also the Palestinian side”. Then it would be possible to “shortly reach a historic peace agreement between the two peoples.”

In response to Ramallah's "one-month trial" for the extension of a settlement freeze, Netanyahu will use his "security" card in order to get the maximum concessions at the beginning of negotiations. That is a wise strategy: if the concessions are not made, then West Jerusalem can blame Ramallah for not living up to its agreement to negotiate. However, that in turn also points to the difficulty of getting Israel to move beyond the initial phase of talks.

Who might be responsible for that position? What about a country whose administration once supported Palestinians pre-conditions --- including the settlement freeze and ending the occupation in East Jerusalem --- yet, with urgent phone calls to Ramallah, has insisted on no pre-conditions and definitely no reference to Israel's weapons programmes, including its nuclear capability? Any guess who that might be?

Gaza Latest (20 August): Aid Ship Mariam to Sail on Sunday?, UN Report on Gaza Restrictions, & Hamas v. Fatah

Will Mariam Sail to Gaza?: As Palestine Today reported Thursday that an aid ship bound for the Gaza Strip had departed from Algeria, the organizers of the Lebanese ship Mariam said that they plan to set sail from Lebanon on Sunday.

One of the organisers, Samar al-Hajj, said:

All on board were instructed to carry details of their blood groups in case they need blood transfusions in the event of being attacked by Israeli forces.

There are nuns, doctors, lawyers, journalists, Christian and Muslim women on board.

Gaza: UN Releases Report on War “No Judgement”
Turkey’s Israel “Problem”: Analysing the Supposed Threat from Washington (Yenidunya)

The Cypriot ambassador to Lebanon, Kyriacos Kouros, told The Associated Press that the Mariam will be turned back when it reaches Cyprus. Kouros said:

We decided that such a ship will not be allowed to enter Cyprus and if such a Gaza-bound ship docks in a Cypriot port the crew and the passengers will be deported to their country of origin.

Hajj's response was sharp and clear: "We are not children who can be told to stay home."

UN Criticism on Gaza: A report from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) states that Israel Defense Force restrictions on Palestinian access to farmland on the Gazan side of the Israeli-Gaza border, as well as to fishing zones along the Gaza beach, over the last 10 years have affected about 178,000 individuals directly, in addition to causing millions of dollars in losses.

The report was based on more than 100 interviews and focus group meetings, as well as analysis of data gathered from other sources. The report says that 17% of Gaza lands and 85% of beachfront zone have been restricted. Live fire has killed 22 people and wounded 146 who entered restricted zones since the end of Operation Cast Lead in January 2009. OCHA estimated some $308 million has been lost.

Israel's official position is that the restriction zones are to prevent rocket attacks.

Hamas Targets Fatah: In response to a series of decisions taken by the Palestinian Authority, including banning the recitation of the Koran over mosque loudspeakers ahead of  the call to prayer, shutting down hundreds of centers for teaching the Koran, and firing hundreds of mosque imams Hamas accused Ramallah on Tuesday of "waging war on Islam and Allah". Hamas claimed the decision to ban the Koran recitation had been taken at the request of Jewish settlers who complained about the loud noise from the minarets.

However, the Palestinian Authority said all the centres were being used as bases and meeting places for Hamas supporters and the fired imams were affiliated with the Islamist movement.

Turkey's Israel "Problem": Analysing the Supposed Threat from Washington (Yenidunya)

On Tuesday, a Ramallah resident, Nadim Injaz, entered the Turkish Embassy in Tel Aviv and triedto take one of the employees hostage with a knife and what later turned out to be a toy gun. After a standoff of several hours, he was shot in the legs and hospitalised.

Fatah issued an official statement denying that Injaz had been employed by the Palestinian Authority: "He is a drug dealer who lives in Tel Aviv under official Israel protection." Israeli police confirmed that Injaz collaborated with Israel's security services in the past.

Gaza: UN Releases Report on War “No Judgement”

After the incident, a Turkish diplomatic source told Turkish daily Hurriyet: “This incident has proven that there is a security weakness. The results of Tuesday’s attack would have been worse if our security personnel had not been able to act in time."

The Turkish comment comes after a Financial Times report of a warning from President Obama to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the US cut off military supplies unless Ankara eased the friction in its foreign policy towards Israel.

Responses from Washington complicated the situation. White House Deputy Press Secretary Bill Burton denied the news:

The President and Erdogan did speak about 10 days ago and they talked about Iran and the flotilla and other issues related to that. But we obviously have an ongoing dialogue with them. But no such ultimatum was issued.There’s no ultimatum.

Then a senior Obama administration official, quoted by the FT, "clarified":

The president has said to [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan that some of the actions that Turkey has taken have caused questions to be raised on the Hill [Congress] . . . about whether we can have confidence in Turkey as an ally.

On Wednesday, the Turkish side denied the original report. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told Turkey's Zaman: "No country can warn Turkey. No one can display such a stance towards the Turkish Prime Minister."

President Abdullah Gul  said: "There are no problems in ties with the US. The Turkey that some had grown accustomed to no longer exists. Instead, there is a Turkey that plays a central role in many processes. There are those who are confused by this."

However, on the same day, Erdogan said there could be problems with weapon sales because of the US Congress.  He added that "such matters are internal in every country" and that Turkey is capable of manufacturing many of the armaments.

After this confusion, a Turkish committee headed by Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioglu and Deputy Undersecretaries Selim Yenel and Tacan Ildem will be going to Washington, according to diplomatic sources. Iran's nuclear programme, Afghanistan, Iraq, and relations with Israel are expected to be on the agenda.

Ankara's message is clear: "Our goals are same but strategies may be different. Turkey's axis is not shifting; we are just looking for relative autonomy." The request to the Obama Administration will beto help Ankara fix its image in the Congress.

Hamas Watch: Rockets, Gaza's Power Plant Closed, and A Secret Meeting with Israel?

Rockets and Hamas: On Saturday, London based Arab newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi reported Hamas official Khaled Mashaal to the Jordanian government, saying that Hamas had nothing to do with rockets fired from Egypt's Sinai Peninsula into Eilat in Israel and Aqaba in Israel on Monday.

Mashaal accused Israel and Egypt of jointly exploiting the rocket attacks to justify a future military operation in the Gaza Strip.

On Thursday, the head of Israel's security agency Shin Bet, Yuval Diskin, was in Cairo for a further exchange of information on the rockets, according to a report by London-based Arab newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat. Egyptian officials told Diskin that the rockets did not originate from their country and assured him that investigations were continuing to find the rocket-launching trucks.

Hamas vs Fatah on Energy: Gaza's only power plant was reportedly closed because of a fuel shortage. 

The plant provides Gaza City and its surroundings with 6 to 10 hours of electricity a day. The rest of the densely-populated territory receives its electricity from Egypt and Israel.

Normally, Hamas collects the bills and officials from the rival party Fatah in Ramallah buy the fuel. Palestinian Authority spokesman Ghassan Khatib says Hamas is not sending enough money, an allegation denied by the Gazan leadership.

Israeli and Hamas Officials Met Secretly?: On Friday, the Israel Defense Forces West Bank division commander, Brig. Gen. Nitzan Alon, warned Israeli settlers to be on alert for possible abduction attempts across the territory, following interrogations of Palestinians arrested on suspicion of involvement in kidnappings.

The IDF said intelligence has shown Hamas leaders in Damascus are pressuring  followers in the West Bank to abduct Israeli settlers and citizens.

Meanwhile, Asharq Al-Awsat quotes Palestinian sources that the former Treasury Minister in Hamas' Gaza administration, Omar Abed al-Razak was taken from Nablus in the West Bank to the Israeli city of Netanya on Tuesday.

In a secret meeting, Israeli officials allegedly warned Hamas against kidnapping settlers in the West Bank. Both sides discussed the recent rocket attacks and the situation of the Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, detained by Hamas.