US Politics: Can Obama and the Democrats Retain Control of Congress? (Haddigan)

EA's US Politics correspondent Lee Haddigan writes:

With latest figures suggesting that the American economy is still performing poorly and a continuing restlessness in the progressive Left over health care reform, the prospects for the Democrat Party in November look bleak.

Incumbent administrations almost always suffer badly at the mid-term polls, but President Obama is facing a particularly mammoth struggle to retain control of Congress --- the upper body of the Senate and the lower body of the House of Representatives --- in his election cycle. Faced with a resurgent conservative opposition and a general dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and health care, the President needs an issue to recapture the enthusiasm of apathetic Democrat voters.

US Politics: Is This the Beginning — or the Beginning of the End — for Glenn Beck? (Haddigan)

Failing an astounding change in economic fortunes in the economy, it is a near-certainty that the administration will turn to blaming the Bush years for the current troubles, as well as bringing out the old Democrat bugbear of big-business funding Republican causes. In these Congressional elections, an estimated $153 million will be spent on campaigns, nearly double the $77 million spent in 2006.

Last week the Labor Department announced an unexpected rise of 500,000 in the number of jobless claims, a figurethat that prompted John Boehner, the Minority Leader in the House of Representative, to call for the firing of President Obama’s top two economic aides. This week it was revealed that new home purchases in June were at their lowest level since collection of the data began in 1963. With weak consumer confidence and nervous investors, the state of the economy has led to warnings that the United States may suffer a double-dip recession: Mark Zandi, the economist who helped the administration determine the extent of its stimulus package, recently raised his evaluation of the chances of a renewed recession from 20% to 33%. The long-term odds may still be in President Obama’s favour, but the reality is that he will not be able to point to the success of his economic spending package come November.

Nor will President Obama be able to promote the first two years of his Presidency as a victory for health care reform without alienating the left wing of his party. Despite the historic achievement of passing an act that revolutionises the provision of patient care, progressives are infuriated at the omission of a public option, and some Democrats are rebelling against the administration’s portrayal of the Affordable Care And Patient Protection Act as the best result that could be achieved.

Recently, 128 Democrats co-sponsored a bill to amend the health care law to include a public option (government-run insurance provision) from 2014. Initially confident that the public would hail the economic benefits of reform, including the reduction of the Federal deficit, health care advocacy groups who helped President Obama garner enough votes to pass the act are now stressing that it can be improved with the inclusion of a public option. The bill is highly unlikely to pass, but it sends a clear message to the administration that come January, if the Democrats manage to retain control of Congress, the public option will be back on the agenda.

Two weeks ago Robert Gibbs, Obama’s press secretary, spoke to The Hill, a Washington-based website covering Congressional politics: the “lack of appreciation or recognition for what Obama has accomplished has left Gibbs and others in furious disbelief". Top analyst Larry Berman said Gibbs' outburst “reflects the fact that the conservative opposition has been so effective at undermining the president’s popular approval.”

Meanwhile, the President was unveiling another tactic in the election strategy. At the end of July, he urged passage of the DISCLOSE Act for campaign finance reform. On 9 August, at a Texas fundraising dinner for the Democratic National Committee, he went further, as he claimed that failure to pass the Act was allowing groups like Americans for Prosperity to run attack ads against Democrat candidates, with no indication of who was funding the assault. He warned that “harmless-sounding” organizations like the AFP were able to influence the forthcoming elections because of Republican obstructionism in Congress, asserting, “We’ve got to make sure that we don't have a corporate takeover of our democracy.” The President returned to the theme last Saturday in his Weekly Address, titled unsubtly, "No Corporate Takeover of Our Democracy."

All three of these speeches attacked the pernicious influence of special interest groups on elections, indicating President Obama is going to use campaign reform as an important issue in the run-up to November. Two of the statements refer to Theodore Roosevelt, the "grandaddy" of progressive politics, and his warning 100 years ago of corporations as “one of the principal sources of corruption in our political affairs”. Obama called for a bi-partisan solution in Congress, i.e., the DISCLOSE Act, and a return to “a democracy that works for ordinary Americans --- a government of, by, and for the people”.

There is a long way, in political terms, before the elections, but it is already apparent that it would be suicide for Democrats to stand solely on their record on the economy and health care reform . To retain control of Congress, President Obama will need to give voters a reason to distinguish between the politics he represents and that of the Republicans/Tea Party. He will draw on the residual contempt among Democrats for all that President Bush stood for and the campaign finance issue. Obama’s "politics of hope" of 2008 have become the "politics of fear".

Still, there are reasons for Democrats to be optimistic they can perform better in the elections than current poll indicate: the tendency of grassroots conservative movements like the Tea Party to implode, the ability of President Obama to convince voters to turn out for him, a significant advantage in cash, and the possibility that the unknown variable of state and local concerns may help Democrat candidates.

To make a foolhardy prediction, as the race just begins in earnest, I believe that the Democrats --- in what looksto be an ill-mannered campaign --- will surprise many in November and narrowly retain both the House and the Senate. The present administration, and its supporters, are not yet "tired" enough of their policies to relinquish control of Congress so easily.

US Politics: Is This the Beginning --- or the Beginning of the End --- for Glenn Beck? (Haddigan)

EA's US Politics correspondent Lee Haddigan writes:

This coming weekend the US capital will be invaded by a conservative army. With the main entertainment to be provided by anti-establishment ‘barbarians’ Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck, supported by a Tea Party growing increasingly frustrated with Washington elites, it may be an opportune moment for members of the Obama Administration to take a break before November's mid-term elections and get out of town.

More importantly, this weekend is meant --- at least for supporters of the gathering --- to mark the beginning for a grassroots conservatism committed to changing US politics in the future. Not just for the next two or ten years but, under Glenn Beck’s "Plan" to be unveiled on Saturday, for a century.

The festivities begin sedately enough on Friday with the 2010 Defending the American Dream Summit. Hosted by the Americans for Prosperity Foundation, this conference of leading conservative activists and policymakers will concentrate on giving last-minute instructions to local organizers. It ends with a special "Tribute to Ronald Reagan" dinner.

The same night, Glenn Beck will be hosting a "Divine Destiny" evening at the Kennedy Center. Attendance is free, on a first-come, first-(re)served ticket basis, but the audience, according to Beck's website, will be mainly pastors, ministers, and clergy. Beck regards these religious leaders of the present asthe vanguard of the movement to re-establish in America a government based on moral values.

Those who see Beck as a deliberately controversial clown may be surprised at what he claims is the intent of the evening. He invites those who “are sick and tired of hearing about how divided America has become” to join him for a night “that will help heal your soul”. Beck will be joined by nationally-known religious figures of all faiths, aided by uplifting music, to provide an event that “will leave you with a renewed determination to look past the partisan differences and petty problems that fill our airwaves and instead focus our shared values, principles and strong belief that faith can play an essential role in reuniting the country”.

But "Divine Destiny"’ is just the warm-up for the main event. On Saturday, Beck and Sarah Palin will be the main speakers at the "Restoring Honor Rally" in front of the Lincoln Memorial. Held on the 47th anniversary of Martin Luther King’s "I Have a Dream" speech, the Rally is the culmination of nine months' planning by Beck to present his "Plan" for the future of America.

On 21 November 2009, Beck announced in front of 25,000 people in Florida that he was writing a book that would show Americans how to change the current political climate. He argued that the country could not rely on a leader or a party to end the “bipartisan corruption in Washington”. He maintained that instead, “I have come to realize that the only one who can truly save our country…is us.” Each individual, parent and child, must educate themselves as a family in the values that would lead them to fight on the “battlefield of ideas” to restore the America of maximum freedom envisaged by the Founding Fathers.

To underscore the religious foundations of this weekend's rally, Beck used his radio programme of 18 July to appeal to listeners to spend 40 days and 40 nights before the event praying for the country. (Jesus and his trials in the desert were not mentioned specifically, but the allusion was clear enough.) Beck asked his audience to consider in detail the importance to them personally of their "faith, hope and charity", and he ended this segment of his show with a plea for everyone to change their lives for the better over those next 40 days, to show more faith, hope and charity, and to join him at the foot of the Lincoln Memorial: “Make a vow to yourself. It will not end with me, not on my watch.”

Surprisingly, the event is a non-political rally where no signs of any sort (except flags) will be allowed. It has been organized to pay tribute to the armed forces, and all proceeds will go to the Special Operations Warriors Foundation, a non-profit organization that helps veterans. The rally will celebrate America’s heritage and traditional values, and it will ask participants to adopt the personal virtues of great leaders of the past to build a new United States. Beck will tie those aims into the promotion of the ideas in Broke: The Plan to Restore Our Trust, Truth and Treasure, due for publication later in the year.

The volunteer marshals for the Rally will be supplied by the Tea Party Patriots. So, it was a natural logistical progression for that group to organize a general Tea Party protest meeting for the Sunday at Upper Senate Park.  The rally will be dedicated to the Tea Party Patriots' slogan to "Repeal, Reduce, Restore": “repeal legislation forced on us by a corrupt Congress, reduce the size and scope of government, and restore the founding principles of the Constitution.” Taking place only two weeks before the more-widely publicised 9-12 meetings, this event will provide an interesting indication of Tea Party strength and enthusiasm.

Those with a good memory may recall that Beck has staged mega-events in the past to support the troops. Between March and May of 2003, just before and after the invasion of Iraq, he organized a series of "Rallies for America". And here we come to the troubling enigma that is Glenn Beck. Does he truly believe in the integrity of the message he preaches? Or, as his many critics claim, does he just spout a nonsense that appeals to "paranoid" Americans as part of his building the brand "Glenn Beck" for personal financial gain?

Although this weekend will be an  indicator of conservative strength heading into the mid-term election, it is of much more interest as a sign of what future impact Glenn Beck will have on the movement. "The Plan" he will present in front of the Lincoln Memorial has taken time and thought, and it is obviously a vital part of his attempt to portray himself as the intellectual guru of conservatism. Many may not like his interpretation of America’s past or his well-intentioned ideas for the future, but there is little doubt that Beck asks questions of his audience that require an understanding of tradition and community in the United States.

Unfortunately for Beck, with his troubled personal history, and the example of similar populists of the past (Coughlin, McCarthy, Hargis, etc.), this could prove to be the zenith of his career and influence. Beck clearly views himself as a Martin Luther King-like figure who will lead conservatives back to their civil rights in a Promised Land from which "progressivism" expelled them from at the turn of the last century.

Beck's problem is that. after Washington, he does not have a Birmingham or Selma to maintain his march for a virtuous America. So, even if you hate The Glenn Beck Show, have a little sympathy for him. I suspect that after this weekend, as an addict to more and more adulation, he will begin the slide into oblivion that awaits all populist leaders who search without end for the next thrill.