The Latest from Iran (25 August): Unity?

2000 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Update. Minister of Oil Massoud Mirkazemi reassures everyone that sanctions are irrelevant, "We do not have any problem in securing the country's gasoline and we have not been facing any fuel deficiency. Domestic gasoline production will be increased by 20 million liters (a day) soon and, because of this, we announce that we won't need to import gasoline."

1950 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has issued a statement condemning the treatment of its senior member Mostafa Tajzadeh, who was summoned back to prison 10 days ago, and journalist/filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad, who returned to jail last week.

NEW Iran Propaganda Special: US Soldiers, Bitter Chocolate, & the Prophet Muhammad
Iran: Is President’s Chief of Staff Rahim-Mashai Taking On Foreign Policy?
Iran, Political Prisoners, & New Media: Discovering The Case of Zahra Bahrami
Iran Feature: Why “Normal” is Not Bad (Pedestrian)
The Latest from Iran (24 August): Keeping the News Alive

1815 GMT: Nuke Talks, No Nuke Talks? A relative lull in Iranian comment on discussions with the US is broken by comments by MP Parviz Sarvari in Fars News: “The US has been the greatest guardian of Israel's interests, but on the other hand, Iran opposes the Zionists and supports the Palestinian interests. And because of this opposition, negotiations with the US is of no avail.”

Still no clue from the Iranian media of how absolute rejection of talks squares with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's acceptance of talks, without preconditions, in an interview last Thursday with a Japanese newspaper.

1755 GMT: Fox News Could Learn from This. The Revolutionary Guard daily paper Sobhe Sadegh has "proof" that opposition figures received $1 billion for regime change: a photograph of Mohammad Khatami and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia.

Just for the record, here is a photograph of another Iranian politician with the Saudi king:



1750 GMT: Labour Watch. Peyke Iran reports that telecommunications workers have staged a protest in Shiraz, complaining that some have received no wages for 16 months.

1745 GMT: Unity Watch. Arash Motamed in Rooz Online is not very hopeful about Sunday's show of co-operation between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ali Larijani: "Some experts dismiss yesterday’s joint meeting as a sham display of unity. They regard internal disagreements in the right-wing camp to run too deep to be resolved by a meeting."

1740 GMT: The President's Men. Camelia Entekhabi-Fard, writing in The Huffington Post, takes a look at the power plays around the President's office, "What Is It About Rahim Mashaie?". Her take-away paragraph:

Iran's political reality is starting to come out from under its curtain, and we should soon expect a new kind of relationship to develop between Ahmadinejad and the orthodox clergy within the Iranian system. We will soon probably see deep, open clashes between the Iranian president and clerics that will culminate into an ugly battle in the run up to the next presidential election.

1540 GMT: Sanctions Watch. LyondellBasell Industries NV, one of the world's biggest plastic and chemical producers, is ending its operations in Iran to shield itself against possible American penalties for violation of trade sanctions.

The Dutch-based company's board approved the decision early this month. LyondellBasell will stop all licensing of its proprietary technology and services to Iranian petrochemical companies, which depend heavily on technology from European concerns to produce plastics and other high-value products derived from natural gas.

1415 GMT: The Kahrizak Suspensions. An EA correspondent checks in: one of the three officials suspended because of alleged connections with the post-election abuses in Kahrizak Prison --- alongside Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi --- is Hassan Haddad, also known as Dehnavi Zare, a prominent foe of journalists and civil society activists.

1359 GMT: Attacking the Clerics. Kalemeh reports that masked men on motorbikes have vandalised the house, daubing the entrance with paint at 2:30 a.m., of Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib in city of Shiraz.

After a highly-publicised Ramadan speech by Dastgheib, a crowd gathered outside Qoba Mosque on Friday to denounce him. On Monday, a rally in front of the Governor’s office culminated with a pro-government speech by the Governor.

1355 GMT: Clash. Five Kurdish insurgents and two Revolutionary Guard troops have been killed in battles on Tuesday.

1350 GMT: The President Speaks. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has given a 25-minute interview (translated in Arabic) to Al Jazeera.

1330 GMT: Unity MediaWatch. The Financial Times of London now has the bit between its teeth on the theme of division within the Iranian establishment.

Having published two reports on Monday, "Ayatollah Warns Bickering Politicians" and "Shia Schism Deepens Ahmadi-Nejad's Woes", the newspaper argues in an editorial, "Cracks Widen in Theocratic Facade":

The regime is beginning to look brittle, belying its triumph over reformism – and Mr Ahmadi-Nejad is starting to look expendable....

A west worried about Iran’s nuclear ambitions would be well advised to tread with care. Any attempt to determine the outcome of this faction fight – not to mention any assault on Iran – would stampede everyone back into the tattered tent of the theocrats.

1210 GMT: Matters of Intelligence. Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi gave reporters a grand tour of "security" topics today. He proclaimed the success of Iranian authorities in dealing with threats such as the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah, with the execution of its leader Abdolmalek Rigi. He declared the legitimacy of the espionage case against Hossein Mousavian, the former Deputy Secretary of the National Security Council. And he supported Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati's recent claim that the US and other foreign countries had given $1 billion to opposition leaders for "regime change".

Moslehi even reviewed the curious case of Oriflame, the Swedish cosmetics company, which was shut down in Iran with the arrest of five of its employees on Monday. Moslehi said that Oriflame, which reportedly had been accused of pyramid trading, had received "external support".

1040 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. HRANA writes that Jahangir Mahmoudi has been arrested after an attempt to represent political prisoners in legal cases.

1025 GMT: Economy Watch. The governor of Iran's central bank, Mahmoud Bahmani, quoted in Iran, has said the nation should limit imports to "necessary goods" to help lift domestic production and reduce the amount of hard currency exiting the country.

1010 GMT: Another Kharizak Concession? Keyhan reports that three post-election protesters --- Mohammad Kamrani, Amir Javadifar and Mohsen Ruholamini --- who died in Kahrizak Prison have been named as "martyrs" by Iran's Foundation of Martyrs and Veteran Affairs. The designation offers benefits and "various facilities in the cultural, social, economic, and welfare fields" to the families of the three men.

The move follows this week's suspension of three officials --- reportedly including Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi --- for involvement in the Kahrizak abuses.

0827 GMT: How Strong is the Movement? In Gozaar, Roozbeh Mirebrahimi writes of "The Weakness of the Islamic Republic":

The Green Movement a year after the electoral coup d’état created a movement as widespread as the 1979. From the most religious layers of the society to the most secular ones consider themselves part of the movement despite their different perspectives. In other words, it is the Green Movement that has defined itself so widely. But it does have a significant difference with the 1979 revolution. While in the 1979 revolution to be anti-monarchy was the point of agreement of many different and even opposing groups, in the Green Movement to be against the Islamic Republic is not the point of convergence for all active forces. Thought there are groups and individuals among the Green Movement who are against the Islamic Republic but this antagonism is part of the movement and not its entirety or its base. The most important factor in brining different members of the movement together is being “against the status quo”.

0825 GMT: Economy Watch. About 100 workers at the Hormozgan Steel Complex in southern Iran staged a protest on Monday, complaining that they have not been paid for three months.

0820 GMT: Cleric Banned. Rah-e-Sabz reports that Gholam-Hossein Gheysari, who presided at the Najafabad mosque, has been banned from the city. Residents have reportedly protested the ban in front of the Governor's office.

0803 GMT: Today's Shiny Media Moment. Iranian Minister of Defense Ahmad Vahidi proclaims that Iran has successfully test-fired a new version of the medium-range ballistic missile Fateh, which has a range of 193 kilometres (120 miles).

State TV broadcast footage of the missile being fired and then hitting a target on the ground.

0800 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz reports that Dr. Amir Hossein Shirvan, the former Chancellor of Jondi-Shapour University in Dezful and campaigner for Mir Hossein Mousavi, has been arrested.

Hamzeh Karami, whose case has become prominent in opposition claims of torture and forced confession, has written an open letter to Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei.

Karami, the managing director of the reformist Jomhouriat and a senior official at the Islamic Azad University, has retracted his televised confession during last summer's mass Tehran trial. He claims that, during 138 days of "torture" and interrogation, he lost consciousness 15 times. He was threatened with rape and execution, as well as the arrest of his wife, his daughter, and his son-in-law. On one occasion, Karami claims, he was told that the screams of a woman down the hall were those of his daughter.

Karami indicates that the push for his "confession" was in part to tarnish former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. He was accused of an affair with Rafsanjani's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi.

0750 GMT: Parliament v. Government. However, it seems some legislators have still not gotten the "unity" message. Elyas Naderan, who was not at Sunday's sit-down with the President, continues his criticism of 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi. Naderan says Rahimi's claimed academic credentials are a problem, but his "financial case" --- Naderan has repeatedly accused the Vice President of connection to a major insurance fraud --- is far more serious.

Mohammad Karami-Rad says that, although two MPs withdrew their signatures on the petition for impeachment of Minister of Agriculture Sadegh Khalilian, five more have added their names. He claimed that "discussion" with Khalilian would take place this week and next Monday.

And Ahmad Tavakoli, one of the leaders of the challenge to the Government, will not give up. He said that the Majlis should not retreat in front of "illegal" actions, such as the reduction of work hours for Government employees from 44 to 39 hours per week during Ramadan.

0740 GMT: Unity Watch. Khabar Online also follows up Sunday's trumpeted reconciliation between the President and the Majlis by surveying MPs about Ahmadinejad's meeting with legislators.

The general response is that the gathering was mainly ceremonial, as it had no agenda and only addressed minor problems. (Reformist Mohammad Reza Khabbaz: "We sat down, talked, and went away.") However, the word "unity" is used often with references to a softening of tone and cessation of public attacks. Still, legislators say it is too early to declare what will happen.

In another article, Mohsen Rezaei --- former Presidential candidate, Secretary of Expediency Council --- walks in step with the Supreme Leader, talking about his letter to Ayatollah Khamenei. Rezaei said the message for the elite was to adopt unity with a change in tone and substance in media.

Rezaei added, "Now that division has ended... we should start to invest in the economy."

0730 GMT: Challenging the President's Foreign-Policy Move. OK, here comes the reaction we were waiting for....

Khabar Online, linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, features comments by Mohammad Sadr, the former Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Nations. Sadr criticises Ahmadinejad for preempting the Foreign Ministry by appointing his four special representatives, devoid of any foreign policy experience. He adds that the decisions were made without the expertise of the Foreign Ministry and are mainly for show. On the specific question of the appointment of Chief of Staff Esfandair Rahim-Mashai, Sadr declares that choosing an "amateur" for the critical Middle East region can have no positive outcome.

Sadr's wider critique is that the President's foreign policy FP decisions are made hastily, without asking experts.

0615 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Press TV indirectly challenges stories of the economic effect of sanctions with a claim from the Ministry of Energy of more than $1 billion in foreign funds: “Germany has invested $445 million in construction of the Pareh-Sar combined cycle power plant in northern Iran, while the UAE has invested $720 million in construction of a gas power plant as well as a combined cycle power plant in Isfahan and Shiraz."

In the last 48 hours, Press TV has also put out the good news that Iran's foreign exchange reserves have doubled, that crude oil production is beginning from a Persian Gulf field, and that Iran is adding 14 airplanes to its commerical fleet.

0550 GMT: The President Speaks. Islamic Republic News Agency headlines a speech by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday to "friendly" students, with his general call for their "boldness and courage", praise for Iran's economy and culture, and declaration that opposition had been quelled.

Nothing very significant at first glance, although there may be some reaction to Ahmadinejad's declaration that fundamentalism does not reside in Iran's political parties. This spring, the President provoked some criticism and concern from conservatives with a remark that Iranians needs only one political faction, the Velayat Party.

Fars News, meanwhile, headlines an interview with Morteza Nabavi, member of the Expediency Council and managing director of Resalat, which pushes the Supreme Leader's line that there must be unity among the authorities.

0535 GMT: A slow start to Wednesday, as we look for reactions to the latest manoeuvres inside the Government. The tensions between the Presidency, the Parliament, and clerics have even overtaken the nuclear issue in some "Western" newspapers, such as the Financial Times and The Guardian of London, and there are signs that the Supreme Leader's effort to calm everyone down and have them shake hands has not worked.

The twist yesterday was the news that the lightning rod for criticism, Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has not only been appointed one of four special representatives for foreign policy by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad --- a sign of the President's ascendancy over internal challenges, according to Reuters --- but seems to be taking the role seriously, given his appointment of a Director-General for International Affairs in the President's office. We've asked around, but there is still no reaction from Iranian offices who formally have the foreign-policy role, such as the National Security Council and the Foreign Ministry. Nor have we seen any reaction from Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission.

Meanwhile....

Political Prisoner Watch (Bahrami Special)

Our story yesterday on Iranian-Dutch national Zahra Bahrami, detained since December in Iran and facing unknown charges --- one claim from Tehran, now that the case has come out, is that she was arrested for carrying cocaine --- has been getting a lot of attention. The Netherlands Foreign Ministry has finally clarified that, although the Bahrami case was publicised by activists this spring, it did not get confirmation of her dual nationality until 23 July.

The Latest from Iran (24 August): Keeping the News Alive

2030 GMT: Sanctions Watch. A high-level South Korean delegation is in Washington to discuss sanctions against Iran.

2025 GMT: Bad Dog. The Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has banned Iranian media from publishing any advertisements about pets or pet-related products. The order was issued after a fatwa from Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem Shirazi.

NEW Iran: Is President’s Chief of Staff Rahim-Mashai Taking On Foreign Policy?
NEW Iran, Political Prisoners, & New Media: Discovering The Case of Zahra Bahrami
NEW Iran Feature: Why "Normal" is Not Bad (Pedestrian)
Iran Document: Interview with Detained Filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad
Iran Special: Have Ahmadinejad and Ali Larijani Kissed and Made Up?
The Latest from Iran (23 August): Political Cease-fire?

2015 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reporter Ohne Grenzen has launched a German-language petition for the freeing of human rights activist and journalist Shiva Nazar Ahari, detained since July 2009 and facing a charge of "mohareb" (war against God).

2000 GMT: We've posted an evening feature, mulling over the possibility that the President's office, including controversial Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, is trying to take over Iran's foreign policy.

1630 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Kalemeh has picked up the Sunday statement of Mehdi Karroubi, made as he visited released detainee Mohammad Reza Jalaeipour (see 0715 GMT). Their take-away line is Karroubi's challenge to the regime to release political prisoners for Ramadan.

Saham News has also posted a Karroubi statement on women's rights.

1620 GMT: Truce Over (cont. --- see 0955 GMT)? So much for smooth sailing for the Government after last week's Supreme Leader intervention....

An impeachment bid has been lodged against Minister of Agriculture Sadegh Khalilian for excessive import of agricultural products, incompetence, and disregard for the insurance fund of agricultural crops. About 25 MPs have signed a letter to impeach Minister of Energy Majid Namjoo, on grounds of failure to implement plans and appointment of inexperienced personnel, and MP Mousa al-Reza Servati said some legislators are seeking to impeach Minister of Interior Mostafa Mohammad Najjar.

1420 GMT: Mousavi Watch. In his latest statement, made to children of veterans of the Iran-Iraq War, has declared that "the Green Movement has laid the foundation of achieving national reconciliation": “The continuation of the Green Human Chain that was formed [during the Presidential campaign] from Tajrish Square (in north of Tehran) to Rah-Ahan square (in south of Tehran) is being pursued on the national stage and all of us, despite our polarity of votes, different ideas, cultures and ethnicity, will gradually overcome our stammers and will be able to talk to each other more easily.” He added:

The political organizations that had been separated due to wring policies, are gradually coming closer together, talking to each other and sitting at one table. What that is their point of connection is the effort for achieving freedom, justice and understanding to guard people’s rights. The borders of “insiders” and “outsiders” are gradually fading and instead compromise and dialogue are becoming dominant. Today, more than ever, the blessings of the Green Movement of the people have laid the foundation of national reconciliation, friendship and unity among the various cultures, ethnicities, Shia and Sunni and all the layers [of the society].

Mousavi warned, however, "Some who see their interests in creating division and shattering people’s unity are continuing to spread hatred through fabricating false charges and other extensive measures in the name of fighting soft war'....They want to infect the cyber-space that emerged from the Green Movement with their viruses just as they turned the national media to a divisive and biased media with their meddling, so that our Muslim nation loses its trust in this beautiful window that has been opened."

1400 GMT: Reaching Out to the Opposition? Muhammad Sahimi at Tehran Bureau posts a lengthy article, "Hardliners Seek Peace with the Green Movement". I can't quite see how Sahimi's narrative supports that dramatic headline, but this extract is intriguing, especially in light of the Supreme Leader's effort last Wednesday to resolve in-fighting amongst conservatives and the Government:

249 Majles deputies -- almost all of the parliament aside from its Reformist wing -- issued a statement supporting him, and asking for vahdat-e ommat (union of the masses). The most important aspect of the statement was the recognition of the effect of the sanctions and the threat of war. For example, Mohammad Hossein Farhangi, a member of the Majles leadership, said, "Given that the enemies of the people and the nezaam [political system] will do their best to harm them, it is imperative that a united front becomes the top priority of the officials, and those who committed mistakes correct them and come back."

On Saturday, August 21, Reza Akrami, a spokesman for the Society of Combatant Clerics (SCC) of Tehran, the leading right-wing clerical group, said that that the SCC wants mediation between the ruling establishment and the opposition. He said that he had made the same suggestion last year to Majles Speaker Ali Larijani, Mahdavi Kani, and former Majles Speaker Ali Akbar Nategh Nouri, a relatively moderate cleric [presumably during the time when there was talk of a "National Unity Plan" being circulated and even presented to the Supreme Leader], but that they had turned him down. Another leading member of the SCC, Majles deputy Gholamreza Mesbahi-Moghaddam, said that the mediation should not be done by the officials, but by those "whose words are influential". The opposition "must become convinced" that the reconciliation gesture is sincere, he said, "otherwise they will not return" to the ruling elite. Jafar Shajooni, a radical SCC member, attacked Akrami for speaking of mediation between the hardliners and the Green leaders. He declared that Akrami does not speak on behalf of the SCC and misunderstands what Khamenei has said.

1200 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Nokia Siemens Edition). The Guardian of London has now noted the lawsuit brought by detained journalist Isa Saharkhiz and his son Mehdi against Nokia Siemens Networks for selling and providing technology used for surveillance by Iranian authorities.

1115 GMT: Opposition Watch. In her latest statement, Zahra Rahnavard declares, "The people are the ones who have the hand of God behind them", in contrast to a "government that claims to be religious, suppresses millions of people on the streets, tortures and executes the children of the people, and, with a thoughtless bill called the Family Protection Act, launches the destruction of the families in this nation."

0955 GMT: Truce Over? So what is happening less than 48 hours after President Ahmadinejad and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani supposedly reconciled with their joint press conference and declarations of co-operation?

Why, it looks like Alef, the publication close to Ahmad Tavakoli, high-profile conservative MP and cousin of Ali Larijani, claims that the President has a 10-point plan to curb the power of clerics through invocation of the "hidden" 12th Imam.

Power game back on?

0745 GMT: Academic Walkout. Shafaf claims that about 50 professors walked out on a speech by Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, the former Speaker of Parliament, at Sharif University.

0735 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Borzou Daragahi and Ramin Mostaghim write for the Los Angeles Times:

Businesspeople, officials and analysts inside and outside the Islamic Republic describe the sanctions as taking a toll on the economy and ordinary citizens, increasing the cost of everything from the production of medicine to the manufacture of baguettes.

But they also say key businesses and government operations controlled by the Revolutionary Guard have found ways to skirt the sanctions, which ban trade with state-run firms connected to the nuclear program, by enlisting private-sector firms as fronts.

The reporters cite Kamran Vakil, an official at the private-sector Iranian Union of Mineral Products Manufacturers and Exporters, who says the 2,500-member Iran-China Chamber of Commerce and Industries has become more important than Iran's Central Bank. They describe, from "merchants", how the Revolutionary Guard circumvents sanctions, for example, selling old machinery and buying new equipment from Venezuela through Iranian companies.

Daragahi and Mostaghim also describe how some companies are charging others to move funds in and out of Iran.

With prices for both businesses and consumers rising sharply, an elevator manufacturer says, "To break the sanctions through middlemen costs so much. The private sector loses to the military and Revolutionary Guard-affiliated companies. Now the private sector must import items via governmental companies."

0725 GMT: Cartoon of the Day. Nikahang Kowsar portrays the disposal of Presidential aide and former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi, suspended on Sunday with two judges for their alleged role in the post-election Kahrizak Prison abuses.



0715 GMT: A Sledgehammer for a Hazelnut. Mehdi Karroubi has said that he "never imagined" the political situation in which Iran finds itself.

In a visit to Mohammad Reza Jalaeipour, the student activist recently freed from prison, Karroubi discussed how Iranian authorities had used a sledgehammer to crack a hazelnut, spreading fear among the people.

0655 GMT: We open today with two features. Pedestrian reflects on the tensions between hopes for political change and hopes for a "normal" life for Iranians, while --- with a huge debt of gratitude to EA readers --- we write how new media helped "discover" the case of Iranian-Dutch national Zahra Bahrami, detained since December.

Meanwhile....

Iran MediaWatch

In the continuing tale of how Iranian authorities are trying to shut down news, The Guardian of London follows up yesterday's revelations that the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has issued an order to newspapers to avoid all mention and images of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami:

Keeping the society and the public opinion calm is the main responsibility of the media. Security officials have considerations about publishing news, photos and speeches of Mr Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami. Therefore, according to Clause 2 of Article 5 of the Press Code, publishing news, photos and reports about the these people are prohibited.

As EA noted, the Ministry has also declared that media should avoid any mention of the effects of sanctions on the Iranian economy.

Academic Protest

We opened Monday by noting that students at Zanjan University had protested the dismissal of Professor Yousef Sobouti. An Iranian blog follows up with news and pictures of the "farewell" to the academic, including claims that the students were beaten by security forces.

Iraq Special: When a Withdrawal Is Not a Withdrawal (Alaaldin)

Ranj Alaaldin writes for The Guardian of London:

The last US combat brigade in Iraq has left the country, seven years after the US-led invasion. Martin Chulov was there to witness the process for the Guardian and he describes the marked difference between the "shock and awe" US entry into Iraq with its silent, somewhat depressive, trickle out.

The media and commentators alike have hailed the so-called US withdrawal as the end of the US in Iraq. It is, however, no withdrawal – combat or otherwise – no matter how many times you call it that.

Iraq Special: Obama Declares Victory. Sort Of. Depends How You Look at It. (The Onion)
Iraq Special: When a War is Not Over (Bacevich)
Iraq: The Political Worries Beyond the US “Withdrawal” (Shadid)

Fifty thousand US troops will stay in Iraq until 2011, down from 96,000, ostensibly to play a supporting role and advise Iraqi forces. That is, however, 50,000 armed US troops, backed up by major military hardware and artillery and who will operate in "self-defence" and could intervene in armed combat at the request of the Iraqi government.

As volatility continues to grip northern Iraq and the south experiences an increase in attacks, those triggers for American intervention could come sooner than most think, rendering the whole withdrawal of "combat" troops a meaningless, public relations stunt that makes a mockery of the intelligence of the Iraqi and American people.

Of course, the US already plays a largely hands-off role in military operations in Iraq – meaning that despite some of the apocalyptic expectations out there, security and stability should not dramatically deteriorate. However, the Iraqi government is still dependent on American military expertise, equipment and intelligence and this could continue in the decades to come, much like the Sultanate of Oman in the aftermath of the British so-called withdrawal that followed the end of the Dhofar war in 1975.

On my last trip to Iraq, when I spoke to senior Iraqi officials, there was a feeling that a new security agreement will be signed in 2011 and that it will establish a sizeable US presence. Sources suggest a 400-man advisory mission in 2012, under the auspices of the US embassy. Other forces would then operate periodically in the area on rotational exercises and training curricula with Iraqi forces. Combined with this force would be the private security contractors, who expect to see a rise in profits as the US scales down. In total, expectations are that there will be a permanent Saudi-scale US footprint of 1,000 to 2,000 personnel.

The sad reality, of course, is that little attention is paid to the fact significant numbers of Iraqis actually want the US to stay. Fears of increased Saudi and Iranian encroachment into Iraq still abound, while Iraq's political players, unable to form a government five months on since March, remain blinded by the lure of power. The terrorists are indeed taking advantage of the political vacuum, as attacks in recent weeks have shown. Some might say that even they want the US to stay, given that the impetus for damage and destruction is somewhat dependent on the American presence.

Iran Feature: Sanctions, Iranians, and YouTube's "Life in a Day" (Esfandiary)

Negar Esfandiary writes for The Guardian of London:

On 6 July 2010, YouTube announced the launch of Life in a Day, an experimental documentary incorporating footage submitted by YouTube users, calling for "thousands of people everywhere in the world … on a single day, which is the 24 July this year, to film some aspect of their day and then post it onto YouTube so that we can use it to make a film that is a record of what it's like to be alive on that one day".

For the many active Iranian YouTube members, this was a sensational opportunity to finally contribute, participate and share in a non-political world community project through a medium they knew well. After all, it was the 2009 elections that inspired citizen filming in Iran, with YouTube serving as the main channel to the outside world. Clips of the brutality on the streets of Iran catapulted YouTube into newsrooms and signalled it as a potent news source.

It came as a slap in the face, then, to read the FAQ on the Life in a Day website: "Anyone over 13 years old can submit footage, except for residents and nationals of Iran, Syria, Cuba, Sudan, North Korea and Myanmar (Burma), and/or any other persons and entities restricted by US export controls and sanctions programmes." The "story of a single day on earth … One world, 24 hours, 6 billion perspectives" is actively boycotting 1.5 billion of the 6 billion perspectives it pursues.

Wouldn't it be great to have included these countries – to have seen something of daily life rather than the usual imagery? Surely that would have been more in step with the spirit of the project, especially given that most of the submissions will naturally end up on the cutting-room floor. Instead, this decision is meanspirited, hasty and compromises the integrity of a project intended to be truly universal, when it is in fact not open to all.

Read rest of article....

China This Week: Deadly Mudslides, Pollution Crackdown, Nuclear Weapons Promise

Death toll from China floods and mudslides: The death toll from the massive mudslide in northwest China's Gansu Province has risen to 1,156 as of 4 p.m. Friday, with 588 still missing, local authorities said.‬

Meanwhile, at least 38 people are missing after rain-triggered floods and landslides ravaged Wenchuan County in southwest China's Sichuan Province early Saturday.‬ No casualties had been reported, a spokesperson with the county government said.

An 8-magnitude earthquake claimed almost 70,000 lives in Wenchaun on 12 May 2008.‬

Chinese flags will be lowered to half-mast across the country and at overseas embassies and consulates on Sunday to mourn the victims of the mudslide. Public entertainment will be suspended on Sunday.

According to some Chinese traditions, the seventh day after a death is the height of the mourning period.‬

Industrial Polluters Given Two Months to Close: China's industry chiefs have warned more than 2,000 companies to close obsolete production facilities within two months or face cuts in credit and a suspension of government approvals.‬

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set the deadline in a move to cut overcapacity and raise the level of economic growth.‬ The cement, paper-making and iron sectors are the most significantly affected.

Companies could also face power cuts from suppliers if they fail to cut pollution.

China's Nuclear Arsenal “Purely Defensive": China's nuclear weapons are for self-defense, a top commander in the army's strategic missile corps said.‬

"If no power presses for nuclear war with China, the Second Artillery Force will always keep silent," promised General Jing Zhiyuan. "We will firmly pursue a defensive nuclear strategy and resolutely implement the 'no first use' policy."

Premier Urges Greater Foreign Aid Efforts: Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has declared, "China's aid should favor the least developed countries, inland and small island developing countries, and focus on livelihood projects that are urgently needed and welcomed by local people, such as hospitals, schools, water supplies and clean energy."

China's Railway Technology: China's high-speed railway technology is not inferior to any other country's in safety and sophistication, senior officials said on Wednesday, claiming that Bullet trains running from 250 to 350 km per hour have travelled 280 million km in the country so far.

The announcment came after criticism from a Japanese high-speed rail company, which is competing with China for overseas business.‬

Ministry Rejects Convict Labour Report: China's Ministry of Commerce rejected foreign media reports that Chinese companies had been sending convicted criminals abroad on work projects abroad to prevent overcrowding in prisons.‬

The reporting was "nonsense with no facts or evidence," said the ministry in an official statement on its website.‬ Sources in the ministry said the reports were featured in the Japan Times, The Guardian, The Washington Times, and Canada's Globe and Mail newspapers.

Government Urges Efforts in Grain Production: China's Ministry of Agriculture said Friday that autumn grain production has entered a critical period, as it pressed local authorities to step up efforts to ensure a good harvest.‬

The autumn grain harvest makes up 70 percent of China's annual total. annual grain harvest.

Summer grain output declined 0.3 percent to 123.1 million tonnes, the first fall in seven years, according to the National Bureau of Statistics‬ .

China, Africa Forge Farming Ties: China's agricultural cooperation with Africa requires more strategy than passion, an executive from a leading Chinese agribusiness company has said, as Beijing plans to strengthen the China-Africa new strategic partnership with more focus on agricultural links.‬

"The fragile political situation is still the biggest challenge for Chinese companies investing in Africa," Xu Jun, deputy general manager of China State Farms Agribusiness Corporation (CSFAC), said.

Last year, a cooperative program worth more than 70 million yuan ($10 million) between the CSFAC and Ghana's ruling party came to an abrupt halt when the opposition party took office, Xu said. "Now we prefer to talk with government administrations instead of party leaders when it comes to further cooperation."

China-Argentina Co-operation on Antarctic Expedition: China and Argentina will be more active in cooperation on Antarctic scientific expeditions, an official from the State Oceanic Administration of China has said.‬

"As a country closest to the South Pole in Latin America, Argentina provides ideal conditions for Chinese expedition teams to gather and rest before entering the pole," Wei Wenliang, head of the Polar Expedition Office, said.‬ "China is willing to launch more antarctic scientific expedition projects with Argentina and contribute to peace of the South Pole, especially after Argentine President Cristina Fernandez's successful visit to China in July this year."

China Launches New Remote-Sensing satellite: China on Tuesday successfully put into orbit another remote-sensing satellite, "Yaogan X", from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center in northern Shanxi Province.