Sunday
Dec282008
Gaza Update (6 a.m. Israel/Palestine; 11 p.m. Eastern US): How Far Will Israel Go?
Sunday, December 28, 2008 at 4:02
Latest Update: Pressing the Bombardment
The basics of today's developments are unsurprising. Given the lack of political and economic progress, the truce was going to lapse last Friday between Hamas and Israel. There were going to be rockets and mortars fired into southern Israel --- even during the six-month truce, there were rockets and mortars sent across the border. Israel was going to use one or more of those rockets and mortars as the rationale for a military assault.
Israel was going to launch that assault partly because of the dynamics of domestic politics and the electoral campaign. More importantly, it was going to do so to put pressure on Hamas, if not to break the organisation and ensure that it was overthrown in Gaza.
Yet, for all this inevitability --- which includes the inevitability of the deaths of civilians as well as fighters --- significant questions arise from today.
The most immediate concerns how far Israel wants to take its attempt to break Hamas. The scale of the death toll, the largest in a single day in Gaza since 1967, is both unexpected and revealing. Set aside the hypocrisy about wanting to prevent civilian casualties. This was not a surgical strike against Hamas militants.
This was a systematic attempt to damage the political and military infrastructure of the organisation and, at the same time, to punish the population. That punishment, provoking fear, disillusionment, and panic, might also provoke the anger leading Gazans to turn against the Hamas leadership.
I think that is a miscalculation, however, especially in the opening phase of operations when the population is more likely to rally behind its Government and against perceived aggressor. So Israel faces the next step: does it support air attacks with a ground invasion?
The easy answer is yes. A show of force will include tanks across the border. However, that show of force is complicated somewhat by Israel's last experience of sustained ground operations to try and separate the population from an enemy organisation --- the campaign against Hezbollah in 2006.
That attempt failed spectacularly, as Hezbollah grew stronger inside Lebanon and the Israeli military and political leadership was blamed for miscalculation. A second mistake in three years, getting bogged down in a bloody occupation of Gaza, is not a welcome prospect even for the most hawkish of Israelis.
The basics of today's developments are unsurprising. Given the lack of political and economic progress, the truce was going to lapse last Friday between Hamas and Israel. There were going to be rockets and mortars fired into southern Israel --- even during the six-month truce, there were rockets and mortars sent across the border. Israel was going to use one or more of those rockets and mortars as the rationale for a military assault.
Israel was going to launch that assault partly because of the dynamics of domestic politics and the electoral campaign. More importantly, it was going to do so to put pressure on Hamas, if not to break the organisation and ensure that it was overthrown in Gaza.
Yet, for all this inevitability --- which includes the inevitability of the deaths of civilians as well as fighters --- significant questions arise from today.
The most immediate concerns how far Israel wants to take its attempt to break Hamas. The scale of the death toll, the largest in a single day in Gaza since 1967, is both unexpected and revealing. Set aside the hypocrisy about wanting to prevent civilian casualties. This was not a surgical strike against Hamas militants.
This was a systematic attempt to damage the political and military infrastructure of the organisation and, at the same time, to punish the population. That punishment, provoking fear, disillusionment, and panic, might also provoke the anger leading Gazans to turn against the Hamas leadership.
I think that is a miscalculation, however, especially in the opening phase of operations when the population is more likely to rally behind its Government and against perceived aggressor. So Israel faces the next step: does it support air attacks with a ground invasion?
The easy answer is yes. A show of force will include tanks across the border. However, that show of force is complicated somewhat by Israel's last experience of sustained ground operations to try and separate the population from an enemy organisation --- the campaign against Hezbollah in 2006.
That attempt failed spectacularly, as Hezbollah grew stronger inside Lebanon and the Israeli military and political leadership was blamed for miscalculation. A second mistake in three years, getting bogged down in a bloody occupation of Gaza, is not a welcome prospect even for the most hawkish of Israelis.
tagged Gaza, Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel, Israeli Defense Forces, Lebanon, Palestine in Middle East & Iran
Gaza, Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel, Israeli Defense Forces, Lebanon, Palestine in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (39)
All of you [edited by moderator] who insist on putting the blame on Hamas, try some facts. The Hamas rockets are weak and old--and they killed one person. Please explain to me how this justifies the murderes of 275+ cilivilians w/ 600 injured. You know that there's a statistic that says that for every one Israeli killed, they kill 100 Palesinians? That's "genocide" for you.
Singh: are you accusing all Palestinians, of all people, of driving those people out of their land? Do you want every individual citezen to get up on a podium and declare their hate for those acts? Oh, wait, they cant--they'd either get shot by Israelis or are already dead....
OH, and one last thing: you don't need missles to defend you from rocks.
Matt Gray:
It should be a red line, but it isn't. The US condones these attacks. It's disgusting. The US is Israel's puppet, no more than that.
Whoops, I misunderstood u Matt Gray--your poiint is, as I said in earlier posts, wrong--one person killed is not justification for genocide.
Thank you, Bob R! A voice of reason in the hundreds of.... well nvm it'll just get edited out.
123abc,
275+ civilians did not die yesterday but rather 200+ militants were killed in an ongoing war. With regret there were civilian casualties but they were no the intended targets. You need to stop lying and claiming all the dead were civilians.
It doesn't matter how old or inaccurate the rockets are b/c they are still explosive devices that can kill. If you were to go outside your house and fire a gun in random directions even if you don't hurt anybody you will be arrested. Hamas insists on firing crude missiles at Israeli towns with cause little actual loss of life but to terrorize the population. Israel is permitted by international law to strike back at the persons responsible...Those people were killed yesterday when Israel bombed Hamas headquarters.
The stat you referenced that 1 Israeli died for every 100 Palestinian is prolly accurate but what does it mean..
It means the Palestinians are stupid to start a conflict with a far superior military force. Israel attacks when provoked...maybe the militarily weak Palestinians should stop provoking Israel....
Hamas apologists make no sense what so ever. One person killed? How about constant indiscriminate rockets being sent constantly into Israel, killing people including children. Of course that doesn't count according to them . After all they are Israelis. This is the culmination of countless rockets being fired regardless of truces or agreements. The end of this must come now regardless of the consequences and the UN and the Arabs and the Egyptians and others who wish to see Israel destroyed. News! It is not going to happen. I hope they don't stop until the work is done.
Hamas deserves far worse than they are getting. No civilized nation will allow terrorists to lob rockets indiscriminately at their citizenry. It is long past the time for restraint.
Take a look at the picture here -
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Hussein-Malla-Gaza-Strip-Gaza/photo//081228/481/4dc03a25f7f64fd79ff36eb3a31e1dfc//s:/ap/ml_mideast_israel_palestinians
Did thousands of Muslims turn out to protest the 9/11 attacks? Did they wave protest banners condemning the London 7/7 attacks? What about Mumbai? Nope... But they turn out en-mass to condemn a small Jewish state for defending itself.
and matt, those militants have wives, and those wives can't even bury their husband because they'll risk dying. What if one of those wives was pregnant and she has no one to help her now. Imagine how many lives isreal has ruined.
Closing comments on this post now- it's been up for almost 24 hours and I think everyone's had their say.