Sunday
Dec282008
Gaza Update (6 a.m. Israel/Palestine; 11 p.m. Eastern US): How Far Will Israel Go?
Sunday, December 28, 2008 at 4:02
Latest Update: Pressing the Bombardment
The basics of today's developments are unsurprising. Given the lack of political and economic progress, the truce was going to lapse last Friday between Hamas and Israel. There were going to be rockets and mortars fired into southern Israel --- even during the six-month truce, there were rockets and mortars sent across the border. Israel was going to use one or more of those rockets and mortars as the rationale for a military assault.
Israel was going to launch that assault partly because of the dynamics of domestic politics and the electoral campaign. More importantly, it was going to do so to put pressure on Hamas, if not to break the organisation and ensure that it was overthrown in Gaza.
Yet, for all this inevitability --- which includes the inevitability of the deaths of civilians as well as fighters --- significant questions arise from today.
The most immediate concerns how far Israel wants to take its attempt to break Hamas. The scale of the death toll, the largest in a single day in Gaza since 1967, is both unexpected and revealing. Set aside the hypocrisy about wanting to prevent civilian casualties. This was not a surgical strike against Hamas militants.
This was a systematic attempt to damage the political and military infrastructure of the organisation and, at the same time, to punish the population. That punishment, provoking fear, disillusionment, and panic, might also provoke the anger leading Gazans to turn against the Hamas leadership.
I think that is a miscalculation, however, especially in the opening phase of operations when the population is more likely to rally behind its Government and against perceived aggressor. So Israel faces the next step: does it support air attacks with a ground invasion?
The easy answer is yes. A show of force will include tanks across the border. However, that show of force is complicated somewhat by Israel's last experience of sustained ground operations to try and separate the population from an enemy organisation --- the campaign against Hezbollah in 2006.
That attempt failed spectacularly, as Hezbollah grew stronger inside Lebanon and the Israeli military and political leadership was blamed for miscalculation. A second mistake in three years, getting bogged down in a bloody occupation of Gaza, is not a welcome prospect even for the most hawkish of Israelis.
The basics of today's developments are unsurprising. Given the lack of political and economic progress, the truce was going to lapse last Friday between Hamas and Israel. There were going to be rockets and mortars fired into southern Israel --- even during the six-month truce, there were rockets and mortars sent across the border. Israel was going to use one or more of those rockets and mortars as the rationale for a military assault.
Israel was going to launch that assault partly because of the dynamics of domestic politics and the electoral campaign. More importantly, it was going to do so to put pressure on Hamas, if not to break the organisation and ensure that it was overthrown in Gaza.
Yet, for all this inevitability --- which includes the inevitability of the deaths of civilians as well as fighters --- significant questions arise from today.
The most immediate concerns how far Israel wants to take its attempt to break Hamas. The scale of the death toll, the largest in a single day in Gaza since 1967, is both unexpected and revealing. Set aside the hypocrisy about wanting to prevent civilian casualties. This was not a surgical strike against Hamas militants.
This was a systematic attempt to damage the political and military infrastructure of the organisation and, at the same time, to punish the population. That punishment, provoking fear, disillusionment, and panic, might also provoke the anger leading Gazans to turn against the Hamas leadership.
I think that is a miscalculation, however, especially in the opening phase of operations when the population is more likely to rally behind its Government and against perceived aggressor. So Israel faces the next step: does it support air attacks with a ground invasion?
The easy answer is yes. A show of force will include tanks across the border. However, that show of force is complicated somewhat by Israel's last experience of sustained ground operations to try and separate the population from an enemy organisation --- the campaign against Hezbollah in 2006.
That attempt failed spectacularly, as Hezbollah grew stronger inside Lebanon and the Israeli military and political leadership was blamed for miscalculation. A second mistake in three years, getting bogged down in a bloody occupation of Gaza, is not a welcome prospect even for the most hawkish of Israelis.
tagged Gaza, Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel, Israeli Defense Forces, Lebanon, Palestine in Middle East & Iran
Gaza, Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel, Israeli Defense Forces, Lebanon, Palestine in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (39)
lets hope that a new cease fire will ensue after Hamas has been defanged a bit. I see Hamas as a cancer. It can never be destroyed, but needs to be debulked once in a while. If Hamas didn't want a limited war, it wouldn't have escalated the bombing.
[edited by moderator]
....Those that claim to have been victims of the Holocausts are now doing the same to their neigbors and at the supervision of the USA. What a [messed] up world when the hands of Evil prevail and the killings of the innocents are in the hundreds, and on top of that the victims are to blame. Israel is no more than a failed "transplant" and is being rejected by the entire body.
Ahhh yes. . . . the GAZA strip. . . . . . . largest concentration camp in the world.
oh please...it's clear that the unprecedented assault is that of the Hamas who have been raining down rockets on israeli towns for the last 8+ years. Can you imagine how we'd respond if Mexico or canada rained down rockets on us for that long - or try for 1 day?! The common answer is "well the Gazan population is a hostage of the Hamas." Again nonsense - weren't we (and Israel in its stupidity) the one who sponsored democratic elections so that the palestinians could say who they really wanted to lead them? And didn't the Hamas democratically win just under %70 of the vote in those elections? This isn't about a forced takeover by a people holding the palestinians hostage! This is the democratically elected palestinan hamas government carrying out the will of the people. This terorism against Israel is the centerpiece of the Hamas political platform and so it's not like the voters were suprised by all the rocket fire into israel or the international condemnation.
I'd suggest that anyone criticizing Israel go spend one week in any of the towns bombarded daily by rocketfire (which I did recently as a volunteer) and then see how quickly they urge "patience" and "talk" or criticize Israel's actions.
This (Gaza) reminds me of those fenced in hunting farms where people go to shoot animals that have no where to go.
This is collective punishment, plain and simple. Do you think maiming five year old kids will help for future relations?
Isreal has demonstrated patience and understanding with the Palestinans beyond compare. The election of a terrorist government only means that the people of Palestine would rather have days like these instead of days of peace.
How about while you and your family are in your house enjoying a nice meal and all of a sudden someone starts to fire single gunshots, randomly through your windows?
Wouldn't you retaliate? Or would you continue sitting at the table - patient?
If you want fire you should expect to be burned. The people of Palestine have demonstrated their desire for nothing else and deserve whatever Isreal decides.
Oh please! Get real. The UN telling Israel to stop killing Palestinian children! When has the UN told the Islamic Palestinian Terrorist Beasts, Hamas to stop killing Israelis? The media and the UN delights on siding with the terrorists at every turn. Go for it Israel, maybe this time you'll really hurt them. You don't need the UN for permission to defend your self against an inhuman aggressor.
What Hamas are looking for exactly, what do they want ? Israel gave and have been supporting the Palestinian for long time. Although Egypt boarding with the Gaza strip, the aid and supports still coming from Israel.
Lets not forget the 1967 war started from Gaza and back in the peace process in 1973 Egypt refuse to take back Gaza cause of the Palestinian issue.
Let position our self in this situation Israel been attacked again and again by Hamas missiles and Israel did not respond back, finally the ceasefire agreed and supported by the Egyptian come to end and Hamas did not want to extended it, farther Hamas fired rocket and killed and wounded Israeli citizens, we are all looking for blade for a response, but forgetting that the citizens of Israel have to leave in shelters while Israel helping and supporting Gaza citizens. Please help to understand this logic. So, finally Israel stands up for their citizen and attacked back military bases. Hamas use a civilians location to base their rockets shouting and then stand behind the pictures crying for help.
The first one to help them self is the Hamas, say what do you want and stop attacking Israel. Israel is not responsible to extend their land if there is questions of expansion bring it up to the negotiation table and let work on real peace process for real. But, if Hamas whom elected by the Palestinian to represent them want to earn independent by a war then don’t blame other for their falt.
Fact: humanitarian supplies is sent from Israel and via Israel to Gaza ???? Where in the world is possibale to want to kill and also to help. Hamas is defently doing wrong. And more farther, just last Thersday a miss shoting from the Hamas lended on Palestinan a the wonded pepole were sent to hospitals in Israel.
What I don't get is the political issues mention above. If the Israeli political have an intrest I guess the Hamas is a party and will be under the same category.
And By the way CNN supporting war so it will be Headline news to discass. Where were you the past year araoud Gaza start be fair with your reports.
The new "messiah" that takes over on January 20, propossed to Israel to be protected under a US nuclear umbrella. Which means that Iran has a green light to continue with the development of a nuclear artefact, otherwise why the need for any "guarantee" of atomic protection for Israel. What they are doing is to push back some of these destructive elements, too close for comfort, to their borders. At the end Israel knows they have to face by itself a final solution to the Iranian question.
This violence falls squarely on Hamas. They were the ones firing rockets even during the ceasefire. This was self-defense against a cancerous infection, like one other said. Sometimes you need to cut the cancer out, along with a lot of healthy tissue, just to make sure you got it all. That healthy tissue ought to get as far away as they can from the cancerous Hamas.
I am constantly amazed by those jumping to criticize Israel's defense of its people. Israel is living next door to a collection of people who have publicly sworn to destroy it, to ignore all previous peace initiatives, and to have no interest in peace.Israel left the Gaza Strip in an effort to move towards peace, moving its people out of the Strip. As many in Israel suspected. the Palestinians living in the Strip did not build hospitals, roads, courthouses, shopping centers, or make any effort to build peaceful lives, but have used the Strip as a brand new launching pad for rockets, aimed at civilians in Israel. Israel is somehow supposed to sit back and not react when these rockets are launched at its civilians. If rockets were being launched at the city where you or i are living, we would be screaming for our government to protect us. Now, when Israel takes steps to dismantle the terrorist structure behind the rocket attacks, Israel is criticized. NO. Israel has the right to fight to protect its innocent civilians against the terrorists who, for years, have targeted its citizens, and have publicly announced, time and again, that they do not want peace with Israel, and only want to destroy Israel. There is no room for neogtiating with terrororists who say they don't want to negotiate, and only want to destroy you.
JackofHearts: You never mentioned the hamas rockets. Yoiu point your finger at Israel as if they are the only ones launching attacks. STOP THE ROCKETS. Hamas is the problem. It's composed of underachivers who put bombs on their children and hid behind woman. The only solution is to cut out the cancer. THAT is what the IDF is doing. [Edited by moderator]
BJ
"We have one alternative which is to be steadfast and resist and then we will be victorious." ~Hamas representative Osama Hamdan.
"Will continue the resistance until the last drop of blood" ~Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum
Hamas doesn't seem to be asking for a truce....
Please note that comments on this post are being queued for moderation- comments will not appear immediately. Comments which are deemed inflammatory will be edited, or may not appear at all.
Jack of Hearts,
Who are you referring to as 'hundreds of innocent people?' The Israeli COUNTER STRIKE targeted militant sites. Hundreds of militants were killed yesterday. Yes civilians casualties were killed in the attack as well but the majority were Hamas fighters....hardly innocent people. I mourn for the Palestinian civilians caught in the middle but i have no sympathy for Hamas fighters who only seem to like starting conflicts with Israel.
It's totally amazing how the world sits by and let America's bully child commit massacres. But hey it's Israel and they have a right to murder without any concern about retribution, you know they earned that priviledge . Maybe they need to reminded that no bad deed goes unpunished.
I used to be very sympathetic to the Jewish cause but Israel's actions over the last decade have greatly eroded that sympathy to the point that honestly i feel like it is bordering on a regime no that far different from countries we call terrorist states. As long as the US continue to support violence from its friend don't be surprised by a rise in sentiment like mine, where there is not respect WHATSOEVER for Israel and its INHUMANE actions.
Dano,
What you fail to understand is that the U.S. is already at that level of resentment you speak of but we direct it not at Israel but at Hamas. We are sick and tired of Hamas and their Lebanese counterpart Hezbolla flagrantly violating the simply rules of civilization. The indiscriminate targeting of civilians by Hamas has led the vast majority of Americans to loss all sympathy for the Palestinian cause. Israel has no doubt committed crimes of its own but we also see that Israeli society actively addressing those crimes. Israel has a human rights movement...that cannot be said about Palestine. Neither side has a clean history but we in America and for the most part the Western World believe Israel to be the better half in this conflict. Until Hamas acts in a civilized was they will not have our help. This isn't to imply that Israel doesn't kill civilians but we recognize that Israel is targeting Militants and in that process civilians are sometimes killed as well but Hamas on the flip side intentionally targets civilians and sometimes luckily a few IDF soldiers will be killed as well...Intent means everything to Western Civilization.
I hope this will help you understand our beliefs
The Israelis blockaded Gaza for at least nine months and cut them off from food and supplies, and then proceeded to drop 100 Tons of bombs on them.
How would you feel if I sealed you in your house for two weeks and then threw a couple hundred Molotov cocktails on your roof ?! They are in the exact same situation, they are low on fuel, food and medical supplies, after all they had to resort to digging into Egypt to get the stuff!
Isn’t the world tiered of this? Enough is enough both sides need to stop and only extreme international pressure and monitoring will do that.
The US has far to long supported a one sided point of view and needs to get involved more on a two sided discussion involving both parties and heavy UN involvement for both the prevention of rockets from Gaza, and inhumane treatment the Gaza Palestinians receive by Israel through both the use of force and actions meant to demean them. Such as the alleged use of the defensive wall to cut land that the some Palestinians claim is theirs.
Israelis have the right to live in peace and I understand that the US and Britain feel that they are is obligated to support them, and is also trying to support both sides of the group. I think however the is a lot more pressure that can be applied on the international front by the United States, to force both parties to come to a solution that integrates the disputed Gaza, the West Bank and Israel into some kind of state where both parties feel vindicated.
A simple cease-fire like they have tried many times before wont and isn't cutting it.
Dano
what inhumane actions? What country are you from anyhow? I know that in the US the 8th (not 8000th) rocket coming from Canafda aimed at a population center and sponsored by the Canadian government would be met with by a harsh response and I'd bet my last dollar that the exact same thing would happen in your country. The palestinian people aren't Hamas prisoners. They VOTED for them and their platform of attacking Israel in democratic elections at a rate of nearly %70. the fact that the west (including Israel) set up democratic elections and then ignored them preferring to act as though Abu mazen is the true palestinian leader despite the elected representatives of the palestinian people is besides the point. The point is that the elected leaders of Palestine decided to declare war on israel and have hit their population centers with 8000+ rockets over 8 years. Where were you when Sderot and Ashquelon and its children were being pounded daily screaming about inhumane palestinian actions. Suddenly Israel strikes at Hamas military installations and you start screaming about inhumane behavior even as Israeli medical supplies are being sent to Gaza and palestinians treated by Israeli hospitals. Your country would have decimated someone who acted towards Israel the way the palestinians do to Israel. try practicing what your country preaches!
Under what circumstace should Israel not defend themselves? If the UN and the world would stop rushing to defend Hamas maybe they would try to get along with their neighbor.
Rob,
No international support will be marshaled as long as Hamas targets civilians. This is a red line for the United States. It is our belief that the Palestinians are suffering do to their own actions...the targeting of civilians. Once that practice is halted then the US will bring Israel to remove the settlements, once the terror attacks have halted there will be no need for the separation barrier, once missiles stop falling on Israeli civilians the border will be opened...Until then things will remain in this deadly cycle.
Bob R, Israel blockaded Gaza to prevent military shipments coming in and Islamic terrorists coming out, loaded. Commercial shipments were allowed to pass both ways after being checked. Who would let Hamas do whatever they want, when their only goal is to eliminate Israel?
Paletinians are happy when Israeli civilians are killed. They were happy about 9/11 dancing on streets and giving away candies to selebrate our blood being spilled. They elected Hamas to destroy Israel. How else to you expect to deal with this falks?
I think that if any of us where a Palestinian or an Israeli and had been through all that either side has been through, then we would act as they are now. These two populations will always have a reason for Violence. Let's hope that one day there is a solution that doesn't include mass murder.
The loss of life is sad, but Israel is right to respond, not doing so will just encourage the terrorists. All the Palestinian Muslim sympathizers, where were you when Kashmir Hindus were being butchered and pushed off their land in India by Islamic terrorists? Where was the condemnation of Islamic terrorism after the Mumbai attacks? India has been doing the opposite of Israel, trying to talk with terrorists, what have they got, more terrorism. The Israeli way in dealing with terrorists is correct, kill them before they kill you. What is being missed in these victim tolls is that around 200 of them are terrorists.
Your point is entirely correct Singh but some people will always be against Israel and India for that matter b/c they can't help but root for the 'little guy.' Israel/India is Goliath and Palestine/Pakistan is David...even though it's David that is picking the fight some people thing that if you have might your inherently evil. It's human nature i guess....irrational but it is what it is.