The Latest from Iran (1 December): A Week of Expectation

2115 GMT: Hacking the State Media. HomyLafayette has the story of today's cyber-attack on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting:

At least a dozen web sites connected to the Islamic regime's radio and television broadcasters were hacked early this morning in an orchestrated operation. The attacked web sites include Radio Javan, Radio Payam, Radio Varzesh, Radio Tehran, Radio Qoran, the literary section of the state radio-television's web site, and the Jomeh Irani (NB Iranian Friday) program.

The hackers, calling themselves Y! Underground, substituted the homepages of the attacked web sites with the above image. The Farsi text reads, 'We will stand until the end.' The title of the pages became 'Defaced by Y! Underground.' Most of the web sites were quickly closed down by their technical staff....

Astonishingly, the literary section of IRIB's web site continues to show the image placed on it by the hackers.

2100 GMT: Ahh, This is Why Mahmoud's Upset. Full credit to Reuters for getting the possible story behind the Ahmadinejad warning to Russia tonight (see 2040 GMT). A "senior Russian diplomatic source" has said, "If there is a consensus on Iran sanctions, we will not stand aside."

This appears to be a continued Russian balancing act rather than a shift behind US-led sanctions. "Consensus" may mean that Russia will accept the measures only if China also is willing. And the source cautioned that economic punishment was a longer-term prospect: "We will be thinking about sanctions but this is not an issue of the next few hours or weeks. We would rather have Iran cooperating more openly and consistently with the IAEA and showing clear steps to lift concerns -- which are gaining greater foundation -- than introducing sanctions against Iran."

2040 GMT: More on Ahmadinejad's Defiance. If nothing else, these lines from the President's televised interview are attention-grabbing: ""[Western countries] need us more than we need them. It is psychological warfare and isolating Iran is impossible. Any finger which is about to pull the trigger will be cut off."

More significant may be Ahmadinejad's warning to Moscow to come back into line --- no sanctions, renewed co-operation --- with Tehran, as he criticised the Russian vote on the IAEA resolution criticising Iran's nuclear programme: "Russia made a mistake. It does not have an accurate analysis of today's world situation."

Iran: How Washington Views the Green Opposition — The Next Chapter
Video: The Bahari Interview on CNN (Part 2)
The Latest from Iran (30 November): Nuclear Distraction, Trashing the Greens?

1940 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Speech. After a 24-hour postponement, the President appeared on national television this evening. He offered, in the words of one viewer, "a geography lesson" for his tour of Latin America, comparing Iran favourably to its partners in Venezuela and Brazil.

Then, in the passage that Western media will pick up, Ahmadinejad declared, "Iran's nuclear issue has been resolved....We will hold no talks (with major powers) over this issue. There is no need for talks." He said that Tehran might allow inspectors to some sites or to none at all.

1715 GMT: And Today's Propaganda Warning. Islamic Republic News Agency, besides waving a finger at Hashemi Rafsanjani (1700 GMT) also gives a threatening push to Mir Hossein Mousavi. IRNA uses an interview with a Hojatoleslam to warn Mousavi that, if he keeps helping the enemies of Islam, he might suffer the fate of Abolhassan, Banisadr, the first President of the Islamic Republic who is now in exile in France.

1700 GMT: The Battle over Rafsanjani. Despite the explicit warning of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to back off, member of Parliament Ali Reza Zakani has maintained his assault on the family of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, declaring that Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi is still the subject of a criminal investigation.

1645 GMT: It's not only EA readers who have debating which way forward for the Iranian opposition. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has replied to four questions about the Green movement.

1630 GMT: The Prison Doctor's Death. A twist in the case of Ramin Pourandarjan, the doctor at Kahrizak Prison who died in November. After claims by authorities that Pouranjdarjan committed suicide or was the victim of a heart attack, Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi now says that the doctor died of poisoning. Only two weeks ago Doulatabadi's office said Pourandarjan had not been poisoned.

1335 GMT: The Potential Significance of the British Sailor Story. Mr Smith cuts through the stories (see 1155 GMT) to get to the possible importance of the detention of the five British sailors:

As I suspected, the sailors were indeed taken by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps. Guess they want to boast their prowess in the Persian Gulf and warn about they will do inside or outside Iranian territorial waters in case of nuclear strike or even tougher sanctions.

That may be only the start of the matter, however. The IRGC could also use this case to flex their muscle against internal challengers. Conversely, other key figures, including President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader, may have to consider their manoeuvres versus the Revolutionary Guard.

Which is not dissimilar to the "British sailor" incident of two years ago, when 15 of Her Majesty's finest ---military in this case --- were detained. That ended, of course, with the release of the 15, an accomplishment for which Ahmadinejad took credit (although Ali Larijani was a central figure in the negotiations).

Two years on, and in a very different political context, will the IRGC again step back?

1145 GMT: Another Distraction. Looks like the international press will also be mesmerised by the story of the five British (civilian) sailors who have been detained after straying into Iranian waters. The standard line taken by Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, chief of staff to President Ahmadinejad, "The judiciary will decide about the five ... naturally our measures will be hard and serious if we find out they had evil intentions," is racing across "Western" newspapers as an ominous sign.

The distraction extends to some rather fatuous speculation, as in this from The Guardian of London, "If the sailors arrested in the Persian Gulf are being punished for being British, Tehran's fear of the BBC could be a factor".

1015 GMT: Playing Down The Bluff. Less than 48 hours after shaking its fist with the "10 enrichment plants" declaration, the Iranian Government is edging away. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said this morning that there's not much to see here: If we do not get guarantees (for the delivery of the fuel), naturally we will have plans to move towards self-sufficiency. This is nothing unusual. Officials of some countries have rushed into adopting stances which may be indicative of the fact that they are concerned or angry." (CNN, incidentally, misses the story completely, distorting a general Mehmanparast statement ---"We will not do away with our rights" --- into "Iranian Legal Threat over Nuclear Plans.")

Meanwhile, something for the US to think about if it wants to push confrontation: a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman drew the line against further sanctions, "We should properly resolve this issue through dialogue. All parties should step up diplomatic efforts."

0715 GMT: Better Late than Never. The Associated Press has caught up with the politics of Iran's "10 enrichment plants" declaration, headlining, "Iran Nuke Plans Largely Bluster, Experts Say".

0710 GMT: Iran Contest of the Day. If the Supreme Leader's life was commemorated by Hollywood (see 0655 GMT), what would the title be?

0655 GMT: International news will be dominated today by President Obama's speech on US policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Indeed, it will be interesting to see if there is a breathing space for the Administration on its next steps towards Iran, as everyone in Washington --- including Congressmen and activists pressing for a cut-off of  talks and tougher sanctions --- switch their attention to the Af-Pak political and military corridor.

Which, of course, does not mean that life stops in Iran. Amidst the debate about the state of the Green Movement and its goals, the plans for the demonstrations on 16 Azar are taking shape. Revised routes have now been posted. Here, for example, are the paths of protests in Tehran:

1. Azadi Square - Revolution Square - Tehran University


2. Hafte-Tir Square - St., Karim Khan - Asr Square - Keshavarz Blvd - Street workers - Tehran University


3. Tehran University dormitory complex - North Kargar Ave - Tehran University


4. Amir Kabir University - Cross-Asr - Tehran University


5. Ferdowsi Square - Street Revolution - Tehran University.

There are notes of activities at universities, and you can even follow a second-by-second countdown clock.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Leader took on another enemy on Monday. He stared down "Hollywood" in a meeting with with artists and directors of the Iranian television series "Hazrat Yousuf," a story from the Koran. The challenge to "Western" film was another setpiece in Ayatollah Khamenei's campaign for cultural purity from the arts to the universities to the seminaries.

Comments

[Megan]

Alborz,

Thank you for your comments; it is always great to hear from people who are in the heart of this struggle. Why there has not been a general strike yet? One way to protest is for all people not to go work or school. Basiji cannot beat people if they are home.

Why people do not engage in large scale civil disobedience? Women for example can remove their head cover and overcoat, Islamic Republic mandated dress code, especially when they are in the middle of a massive protest. Or people can stop paying their electric, phone and water bills. What kind of support do you think Green Movement has in the rural areas? Is there any support for Green Movement in IRG?

[Samuel]

Barry,

The increasing influence of Islam on politics and culture worldwide is a well known fact. Whether one is talking numbers, converts, depth of devotion etc. Islam is more prominent today, again worldwide, than it was in the recent past.

You really should read up on the issue of immigration. Sometimes masses emmigrate because their potato crops fail (or they are made to fail by an empire trying to get rid of troublesome Irish) and sometimes because said empire decides to deport its convicted criminals.

[Alborz]

Megan,
The control is too bad here. All industrial units have a Islamic center, controlling and spying on workers. Any movement and strike will lead to arrest and dismissal of activists. Due to bad economic situation, hardly anyone can jeopardize the security of his family and the only source of income. bearing in mind there is no unemployment security or insurance.

So its the same story with bills, schools, etc.... They can easily be pinpointed and arrested.

In a few circumstances People have removed their Islamic Hijab, girls sitting shoulder of boys and dancing in a traffic jam and shouting death to regime. I have experience this myself. But the reaction is extremely hard.

We have Mosque almost everywhere in the whole country. These places are also spy centers. People in rural area are fully monitored by them and they are simply too scared to act.

We need to move slowly and get more and more people into a peaceful movement. If it gets violent, we will loose many people from our army in this stage. Bearing in mind that we do not have any (ANY) kind of unions, parties or concentrated leadership. Our leaders are OK, but far from strategical leaders. The world is behind us, mentally but nothing more!

USA, UK, UN and Amnesty, just talk, nothing done! so we have no choice but to rely on our own resources. The enemy (Coupe regime), is nothing less than Hitler.

[Rev Magdalen]

@Alborz Don't worry, you guys will figure it out. You are the experts. Freedom is your destiny!

[ange paris]

Samuel
You talk non sense !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...................

[Megan]

Albourz,

Thank you for addressing my questions. I did not know that regime has infiltrated the society so deep and so wide. It sounds so hopeless that it is heart breaking. But as the saying goes it is always darkest before dawn. The sun will shine on Iran if people continue to stand their ground. The rope-a-dope strategy (wear the opponent down and then throw the winning punch for a knockout victory when your opponent is tired and frustrated) may not be a bad strategy for Green Movement.

I want you and others in Iran know that you have achieved a great deal so far. Green Movement and bravery of every man, woman, and child who stood up to the regime has touched the entire world. Your bravery has changed the image of Iranians forever, the image that had been tarnished by Islamic Banana Republic. World community now distinguishes Iranians form its government. You aired the regime dirty laundry and exposed it for what it truly was, a mafia government that runs like a drug cartel. That is not a small accomplishment.

Green Movement is the topic of debate in halls of congress and state houses in many nations. The other evening, I heard Senator McCain making a case for supporting Green Movement in an interview with a cable news channel. Policy makers and law makers in the U.S. have heard and discussed your chant of “Obama, Obama you are either with them or with us”. This is not small.

I agree that discussion and debates that do not lead to any measurable and desirable outcome do not mean much. I also know the Iran situation is very dynamic and things could change rapidly from all sides. I just hope that at the end it changes for better and take a path toward a true democracy that has eluded Iran for so long. It takes time but at the end dictators always lose. For Iran, I hope this time it does not go from bad to worse as it did in 1979.

Give them hell on 16 Azar.

[Bill Davit]

Samuel

You say Islam is on the rise, chide the swiss/french, and then say we should pay attention to what Islam did to Russia. Have you noticed the far right is on the rise in Europe for no other reason than the real and perceived threat of Islam. Why has this occured.?

Islam is rising because of a resurgence of faith, petrol dollars, and an abnormal birth rate across much of the Islamic world.

1) No problem with faith except in many cases it is largely due to the perceived threat of those evil non believers. From the MB, the Wahhabis, and the Mullahs in Iran they have built a whole industry that promotes the we vs them mentality what you may call Dar Al Islam and Dar Al Harb.

2) Petrol dollars is huge but also limited. The reality is the ME states owe over 80% of their GDP to oil and energy resources in what I would call the luck of geology. These ME states are not interdependent economies but almost exclusively dependent ones slaves to the oil revenues from the hated infidels. Just imagine what will happen when oil dries up. When that happens the least of their problems are going to be dawa funding but instead the implosion of their society.

3) Birth rates are a hallmark of the fanatics who like to espouse the belief of out birthing the infidels. This has always been a mantra of those who practice the supremacist ideologies of the Islamists of today and history. This birth rate is why Islam is touted as the fastest growing religion in the world despite the fact almost all other faiths out convert them. In the US only about 10 to 20,000 yearly convert to Islam while as stated by Shiekh Ahmed Katani " Ever year, 6 million Muslims convert to Christianity." Ironically Al Jazeera posted this interview but it is of course not available anymore--can't let that truth out now can we. What the Islamic world fails to realize is this is a deomographic time bomb that will only damage them in the long run. Immigration is being turned off across the globe and what are these Islamic states going to do with these people. For God's sake most Middle East states have some of the highest unemployment rates in the world! It also ignores the problem most Islamic states have severe problems feeding the people they already have. To me this push for high birth rates is immoral and a disaster waiting to happen.

In my view this rise in Islam is artificial and will only implode on itself. The far right is a reactionary move and will fade once the perceived threat is gone. The Swiss and French moves, while I struggle with them, I do realize they are mostly a reaction of not tolerting the intolerant. Europeans see the lack of stability, religious intolerance, and overt violence in the islamic world and should be rightly concerned. Yes it is fear but it is not the fear of Islam per say but the fear if they don't act now they will be forced to tolerate the intolerant. The islamic world can gripe about this but what amazes me is the blatant hypocrisy considering many Islamic states make up the who's who of the worlds worst human rights abusers. Yes we should fear this "Islam" you talk about but in the end it will be these Islamic supremacist who will be the ones cowering. Many Muslims like to say that we are at war with Islam. I like to say we are at war ideologically with those who preach intolerance and they have no concept of what war means to us. I ask them to look up the Nazis and the Communists to see what happens to fascists when the free world goes to war with them.

Thx
Bill

[Samuel]

Bill Davit,

Most Muslims growth is not even in the Middle East. http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/10/07/muslim.world.population/index.html

Where are these 6 million conversions from Islam?

The far right in Europe is basically a continuation of traditional western racism and its prejudices extend far beyond Islam. Look how they treat the Roma communities. In any event the far right will help discipline, radicalize and bring closer together muslim communities in Europe.

Interestingly many anti-revolution Iranian have a lot in common with the far right: Anti-Islam combined with anti-arab bigotry.

One final point. You keep portraying muslims as somehow self-isolating from other worldwide phenomenons. One reason that Iran has been so succesful in Latin America is that it has formed alliances with other anti-imperialist nations. The indigenous peoples in Latin America in places like Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador are finally overthrowing control by white, europeanized small elites. They are natural allies for the anti-western Iranian Revolution. It does not matter that such allies are not Muslims.

Watch for Peru to follow (with future president Humala) this trend as well as Guatemala.

In similar fashion Hezbollah in Lebanon has no problem forming an alliance with that portion of the Christian population led by Aoun. In Iraq Shiite Muslims have deftly used the American invasion to bring the country under Shiite control for the first time in centuries and incidentally one of Iran's closest allies.

Islam, even radicalized political Islam, is far more flexible and adaptable than you are willing to acknowledge. Don't fall for the easy temptation to create a caricature which is then all so easy to knock down.

[Adam]

Guys can't you see that this conversation regarding Islam in the West is exactly the tactic that Ahmadinejad and by extension Samuel our resident propagandist use to distract from the real issues.
Most muslims in the west (and all young muslims that I know) are vehemently opposed to Ahmadinejad and his brand of fascism (and by extension the power behind him, Khamenei).
The issue is not Islam in the west, it is whether you support human rights and freedom or not. And lumping together everybody with some heritage from a nominally Islamic country into one total number is just ridiculous. Just look at all of the Iranian-American Muslims and what they would like to do to Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, Mohammed Marandi, etc...

[Barry]

Adam

Well said - and a good reminder of how the Iranian regime does consistently attempt to distract from the real issues facing them.

But, I don't think too many here are distracted. We (I?) are just a bit bored - waiting for 7 Dec :)

Barry

[Samuel]

"Just look at all of the Iranian-American Muslims and what they would like to do to Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, Mohammed Marandi, etc…"

Which is were they belong.

"what they would like to do". Sure and I "would like to do" something that would make me richer than the Sultan of Brunei. My odds are better than theirs both short term and long term.

[S]

Dear Samuel,

At the end of the day, whether in a year or 30 years, people like you will be beaten and freedom shall conquer.

Keep preaching my friend, you'll see!

Marg bar dictator

[Alborz]

Dear All,
We live in a world of diversities. This is what makes our planet beautiful and rich. As long as we respect each other and we maintain democratic values, there is no bother if you call yourself Muslim, Jew, Socialist, Capitalist or whatever.

Fanaticism in any shape, colour, philosophy or religious believes is dangerous. For the past few years, we have been suffering from intolerance and imposing policies both from Muslim sides (such as Taliban, Iranian regime, Pakistan, Hizbollah etc....) and from their opposite "counterparts" (in form of G.W Bush's narrow minded and arrogant foreign policy, supported by Israeli gangs both in political and economical and military forms). I personally put them both in one category despite they fight each other.

I believe that the world order and the role of the UN does not represent the reality of the current world situation. Thanks to the Internet, satellites and all forms of information exchange, people around the world are very well informed now; Actually more than ever. We cant accept double standards any longer. We wont accept priorities for one, for no reason any longer.

World leaders need to act quickly before it's too late. We need to re-engineer the international organizations in a way that they reflect today's situation and today’s needs. The military invasions and violent acts, does not go anywhere. I am against any kind of fanaticism, particularly in a form of religious or political. The old methods, not only are not efficient anymore, but they feed abusers such as Ahmadinejad, Chavez and Islamic or Jewish hardliners.

At last, not at least, wish us good luck for 16 Azar (7 December, Green movement on Student Day) in Iran. The Iranian regime is going to stop the Internet and telephone connections for a few days soon. If you don’t hear from me, it’s due to this problem, otherwise wish us good luck.
Movement for freedom must not be separated by political borders. We all are equally responsible for the safety and the health of our beautiful planet.

[Alborz]

Dear Rev Magdalen, Megan and Samuel.

First of all thank you for your mental support and all good wishes and positive energies that you spread. Please let them come as much as you can. We need them.

@ Samuel.

I think you are far from the reality in Iran. I suggest you to make a trip to Iran, have conversation with some families to understand the reality of "Islam" in Iran. Let me tell you my own experience which has happened to my own family:

- My brother who was a well educated expert, was arrested for his political views (No act was done by him, JUST HAD POLITICAL VIWES!!!) they asked him to change his mind and think in their way. He simply replied: "Unfortunately my brain does not work in the way the the torturer asking me". my brother was severely tortured, kept in isolated cells in three years!!! with no right to meet his family and finally executed without any court, without any right to have a solicitor, without any right to have a public court, without letting his family to attend in the court. Also in order to break him further, they arrested his wife and my 2 year old nephew. the little boy (only 2 year old) was beaten in front of his parents, in order to break them.

Have you read what is happening to our journalists in Iran? They have been sentenced for decades in prison and banned from political talks and writing for life. Only because they questioned the health of election in Iran!!!!!!

Shall I name all young innocent who were arrested for attending in a peaceful demonstration, tortured, raped and killed???

Mr Samuel if this is called Islam, if this is what you are preparing for us. I am sorry to say so, but to hell with you all.

We fight Iranian regime till we have made a peaceful society where our people and our children live in peace and democracy. You belong to past, Historically you are dead!

[Megan]

Alborz,

I am so sorry to hear about your brother. He is in a better place now. The day of retribution will come and the killers will pay.

Do not waste your precious time with Samuel. He is a paid mouthpiece for the regime. He like his brothers who beat people in streets of Iran has sold his honor, his county and his countrymen and women for a few pieces of silver. For him you, your brother, your sister-in-law (your brother’s wife) and your nephew are not Friends (Khodei). You, your family and people like me are the enemies because we are too smart and we do not buy into their 8th century ideology.

I do not read any of Samuel rubbish. He and people like him do not buy their own rubbish either. They just want to force their nonsense on people so they can keep them slave and ignorant so they can hang on to power and continue rob the country. These idiots hang people who have drug and alcohol addiction and they themselves drink alcohol like a fish drinking water and smoke opium like a chimney. If punishment for smoking opium is hanging, Ali Khamenei (I think Khaanei is a better name for him) also known as Ali geda (bagger) should be hanged 10 times a day.

Keep your spirit high and please stay safe on 16 Azar. I will be listening to the live broadcast of 16 Azar on www.epersianradio,com . A lot of people from inside Iran call this radio station during demonstration and give report.

In solidarity with Iranian people a demonstration is scheduled for 4 PM on Monday December 7 (16 Azar), across the street from the White House in Washington, D.C. I also heard Iranians in Finland will be gathering in front of the Parliament building in Helsinki to voice their support.

Please check back after the 16 Azar protest and let us know you are okay. And please if you go give a shout for me and say “Go to hell Islamic Republic”

Kick their butts.