Sunday
Dec132009
Iran Analysis: Sifting the Propaganda - Government About to Arrest Opposition Leaders?
Sunday, December 13, 2009 at 14:08 
UPDATE 1355 GMT: We've got the latest developments in our LiveBlog. Current assessment? Based on the Supreme Leader's speech this morning, we think the Green movement(s) are on a "final warning". That would mean no immediate arrests of opposition leaders, but if there is protest during Moharram....LATEST POST (14 December) Iran: "Arrests" and the Regime's Sword of Damocles
UPDATE 0800 GMT: Just after posting this, I noticed the English summary of the blog of the academic and journalist Alireza Nourizadeh, who lives outside Iran but claims good sources inside the country. He says that there was a three-hour meeting on Saturday night between the top commanders of security forces and the military, the Minister of Intelligence, and the Supreme Leader and his son Mojtaba. (Note: no President Ahmadinejad)
Nourizadeh asserts, "During the meeting the majority of participants requested the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Seyed Mohamad Khatami and the placing of Hashemi Rafsanjani under surveillance. Khamenei, however, postponed his final decision to tomorrow.
Nevertheless, according to a very reliable source it is very probable that the coup leaders take series of important measures including arrest of a number of opposition figures tonight."
0730 GMT: We awake to sift through the chatter and rumours of more Government action against the reformists and Green Wave(s). Sparked by an entry in Mir Hossein Mousavi's website Kalemeh and then accelerated by the repetition of the warning by other reformists websites such as Norooz and Mehdi Karroubi's website Tagheer, the concern grew that Mousavi might be arrested.
Here is where we are this morning:
1. THE FAILURE OF THE KHOMEINI "ON FIRE" CAMPAIGN: Of course, there are a number of reasons why the regime might take the dramatic and dangerous step of detaining the most prominent Green leaders.However, the immediate catalyst seems to come from a Government stumble: the clumsy propaganda campaign using the alleged burning of Ayatollah Khomeini's photograph by protesters.
It is secondary whether or not the video shown on 16 Azar by State media, claiming to be of a man urged on by a crowd to deface and then set on fire images of the current Supreme Leader and Khomeini, is genuine. What matter is whether people believe it is genuine. And it appears that, given the increasing shrillness of the Government campaign, that the regime has failed to make the allegation stick.
And there has been a negative effect undermining the authority of those in charge. The reformist response --- announcing that Khomeini was not burned but saying nothing about Ayatollah Khamenei --- speaks loudly in its omission: we are not protesting the Imam's idea of the Republic but the current state of that Republic and, in particular, the man occupying the post of Supreme Leader.
2. RAISING THE STAKES: So the regime was unable to turn 16 Azar, damaging in its display of persistent protest despite all the Government restrictions, into an example of the opposition's dastardly effort to destroy the Republic. What next?
Simply put, keep banging away. So on Saturday Ahmad Khatami, who has been the point man for hard-line declarations (remember the death penalty for protesters announcement in his Friday Prayer early in the crisis?), indicated that there must be punishment of those responsible for the desecration both of Khomeini's image and the regime's authority. That message in turn was trumpeted by outlets such as IRNA and Fars News.
3. FROM PROPAGANDA TO REALITY? Another warning has thus been put out by the regime.
There is a practical dimension to the threat. The Government's strategy in the run-up to the 16 Azar protests focused on the detention of student leaders, but this was not enough to stop the tide of demonstration. Even if the protests were smaller than on previous occasions, their concentration on campuses at the same time as they spread throughout the country galvanised attention --- note the swing in international media from declaring the Green Wave over to announcing its resurgence. (Is that duplicated amongst those "in the know" inside Iran?)
So if it's not enough to take out the student leaders, what can you do, especially with the important religious occasion of Mosharram around the corner? You go up the chain and challenge the Big Guys.
And don't underestimate the effect of groups of individuals simply deciding to force the issue. On the day after 16 Azar, Mousavi's offices were surrounded by about 40 plainclothes personnel, sparking a confrontation with the opposition leader. Both sides backed away --- Mousavi's security taking him back into his offices, the plainclothesmen dispersing --- but the showdown could have escalated.
The Government has threatened before to detain opposition leaders. And it has arrested high-profile Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi advisors. However, it has not necessarily been able to hold those advisors, such as Alireza Beheshti. (Whether it has been able to limit their role in the movement is an important and, for us, unanswered questioned).
For now, therefore, the rumours of the ultimate arrest of Mousavi appear to be a combination of regime frustration, a waving of the Sword of Damocles over the Green Movement, and the opposition's own nervousness.
None of which gives answers. That is, beyond this important lesson, six months and two days after the Presidential election....
This isn't over.
Reader Comments (54)
Hi Barry,
Obviously, we need to be nuanced and open minded in our thinking, always willing and able to entertain alternative viewpoints, without necessarily subscribing to them. That's just a given of good critical thinking. And I think that's what you're getting at in your description of "ambivalence."
However, by ambivalence I mean the harboring of conflicting attitudes and beliefs. As you so eloquently point out, this sort of ambivalence can sap one's vision, resolve and commitment to action.
I don't think anyone is suggesting a cavalier, impulsive approach that lacks sober reasoning and strategizing. Iran doesn't need anymore inflexible, dogmatic revolutionary zeal. However, sustained and bold action should not be curbed by hemming and hawing, wishing for democracy and freedom but then clucking our tongues and wringing our hands hands when people take action to realize those goals.
Bozorg
I think we are on the same page :)
In another post , I hypothesized that there is not just Dictatorship and Democracy - at the ends of a line . There is a 3rd point which then forms a triangle . It is called Anarchy - and it does nobody any good. I suspect that NAJ is very well aware of that point - and hence her perceived "ambivalence" :) I am with her there , if that is the case.
It is interesting to note that there are still people in the world who describe themselves as anarchists (not in relation to Iran though). I am not sure how the concept of anarchy appeals to them.
Barry
Thanks scott.
Bozorg,
I don't think demands for civil liberties are radical either. I presumed that you were talking about my "ambivalence" about total regime change, and turning Iran into a totally secular society. This is not to say I don't wish for a totally secular society; but in all realistic likelihood it is not going to happen "yet", and pushing for and demanding it at this very juncture is detrimental, and counter productive.
I think what I fear most is a form of populism and reactionary sentimentalism "infesting" the green movement--I think it has been very disciplined and very rational so far. Take how cleverly they have diffused the picture-burning and the tavakoli-cross-dressing fiascos. I think, my duty, as much as I can afford time and courage, is to stick to the core of this movement: respect for human dignity; and respect for equality before the law FOR ALL.
Ange,
yes in the first days of protest MILLIONS flooded Tehran; but many of those millions are now silent protesters. (I know many of them personally) They do what they can; but what they cannot afford is to come and get themselves killed and imprisoned, leaving their children starve, leaving their elementary school pupils be taught by some Basiji, leaving their farms rot, leaving their medical practices shot. This is a country of 70 million that needs to FEED itself; needs to have fun, needs to be ALIVE, needs to get married, to travel, to do exams and educate itself in science, engineering, medicine, law ... it cannot afford to be sucked into getting wasted in a constant friction. This is how Iranians have LEARNED to survive; our entire history and literature is full of "tactical pauses" ...
The way I see things is this: a HUGE force had broken the foundation of power in Iran. Right now, the protesters are standing below these broken pillars; the force their "push" generates is also what is keeping the foundation stand. When waves hit; it is always their retraction that destroys.
I want to bet my money on patience this time ... and keeping a COOL head :)
Naj,
I apologize... if I know that you're a woman, I will never wrote that comments earlier. I have so much respect for a woman as my mother is a woman. Thats why my heart bleeds if I watched some videos of those bas***basijis beating those helpless women.
I did surf to your site and I read some of your blogs in there. And now I understand. You are more than a "worrying mother" as you describe yourself.
My apologies...
C.
Naj chérie
your image of ," wave" , "retraction" "destrution", is very beautiful I can really feel it, but, in concrete terms, I couldn't touch it, how could it happen ? ; one of the former president of France, General de gaulle has always said : " thanks to few people, a revolution begin, thanks to their bravery and sacrifice, because the majority of the people of a nation are the observants even if they are angry with the system ! In Iran , this movement of the students is the engine of our second revolution; it's because of the radicalization of the regime that they have become radical ; I don't know how old are your children, but , you will see that with them, ( I have already experienced it ) , this is the nature of the young people. and nobody could curb it except " understanding" them.
And watch the coming "additional" sanctions.
I believe that they will not only be 'additional" (in the sense of the latest Legislation before the US House of Reps and Senate) - but "additional" in terms of actual diligent policing of those already in force.
I am sure that the Americans have not enforced (very hard) the sanctions already imposed on Iran. The US economic problems notwithstanding, the US has HUGE leverage on International companies that enjoy commerce with the US - and which also are still dealing quietly with Iran. These Companies will have to decide which dealings have a greater impact on their profits.
In fact, enforcing the sanctions to the letter, also hurts American citizens - who hold stocks in these Companies. That is why so far , the sanctions have not been diligently enforced and the impact of the sanctions has not been great.
I am looking forward now to seeing what the Americans do after end December.
Barry
I, like many Iranians, am apprehensive of revolution. We had one in 1979 and it didn't have the intended consequences. History is full of examples of revolutions that replaced one despotic regime with another. Akbar Ganji, the most prominent Iranian dissident (now living in exile), in an interview in 2006 spoke about how revolutions do not bring about democracy. He also said that when the path to reform has been completely blocked off, revolution is inevitable.
What we have in Iran now is a popular non-violent civil rights movement that has withstood six months of repression and intimidation. If the end result is a revolution, I won't shed a tear for the falling tyrants and I'll hope that when the dust settles democracy, freedom and independence are strengthened in Iran and not crushed again. But, I don't think it's wise to jump the gun and push toward a revolutionary agenda until there is no other way forward. Doing so risks causing the failure of the current non-violent civil-rights marathon and, even if it does bring about a full-scale revolution, may not bring about the fundamental changes that only a strong, wide-spread and socially integrated civil society can bring about.
Also, I'd like to point out that the term radical should not be taken as negative and that it is a relative term. In Iran's current repressive context, the liberalism we take for granted in the west is indeed a radical agenda (and one worth fighting for). Our radicals here in the west go a lot further than just asking for representative government and the freedom of speech (we already sort of have those things).
Lastly, in response to Barry's comment about anarchism: "It is interesting to note that there are still people in the world who describe themselves as anarchists (not in relation to Iran though). I am not sure how the concept of anarchy appeals to them."
In the broadest sense, anarchism (which has a long theoretical history among radical western intellectuals and some practical application in pre-fascist Spain) is a political attitude that questions authority and demands that all use of force and authority be justified. It is not "the law of the jungle" as many people thing it means.
Dear Naj-
There is a group in the US called NIAC. Are you amember of this group?
Apk
Interesting discussion, I must say. And, in the end, you do yourselves much credit I think.
I live in the US (as I've said before), so reading the back-and-forth has been interesting. I'd only add a point/ask a question. Is the issue of how far, how fast somewhat out of the opposition's hands? Here's what I mean.
Suppose the leaders of the Greens are arrested. By nature, that would seem to change the nature of the movement in an escalating fashion. But that wouldn't be the opposition's fault; it would ONLY be a direct result of gov't escalation/provocation.
Ideally, it seems naj and Pedestrian are right. My point is that the situation may, at some point, become less than ideal.
It is time for some truth telling.
Mrs. Naj says it is her first time on Enduring America, yet she has been monitoring this site and has come to the conclusion that EA is a highly dubious weblog. Please read her comments to reader Parvati below:
[Naj said...
PArvati,
for the Nth time, I am REPEATING that this statement is NEVER made by the army. It is yet another imaginary monster CREATED BY THE IRGC to help them further militarize the situation and tighten their grip on power.
I have expressed my dismay to homy lafayette about having translated this piece of trash ... as I feared it has spined out of control in this highly dubious Enduring America weblog.
Chill out people!]
Mrs. Naj,
You make me ashamed to be a woman. I do not need a worrying mother like you who advocates slow and gradual change of regime that has reduced women into “no-class” citizens.
Mrs. Naj I suggest to you that people have followed your advice and have been trying to change the system while coping with the atrocities of Islamic Rubbish Republic. They have done that for thirty years. How slow would you like them to go? How many generations are you willing to sacrifice?
Mrs. Naj, taking baby steps in uprooting a corrupt and criminal regime is the strategy of those who stand to lose much in material possessions not those who have nothing to lose. Millions of Iranians have nothing to lose. You have to have a life to go about. Millions have none and other millions have a shell or a pretense of a life. Many other millions do not know the meaning of have a life; they are not familiar with the concept. And you ask them to go even slower in changing the system that has brutalized them for thirty years? It is shameful that you and people like who enjoy the freedom of spewing their rubbish, who are safe with no fear of being arrested, who are well fed, who are educated, and who can be the voice of women who have no voice in Iran advocate they remain victims for more years. And you have the gall calling those who want dissolution of Islamic Republic of Rape, torture, murder and corruption and they want that NOW radicals and Neo-con?
The call for coping some more and do not go for sudden change are consistent with Stockholm syndrome and battered wives behavior. Those who spent an extended period of time in captivity empathize with their captors and do not want to bring harm to them. Similarly battered wives continue to put up with their predicament convincing themselves that it would get better and many eventually are murdered.
Mrs. Naj, I want the Islamic Republic to go to hell and I want that Now and not a day or an hour later. Call me Radical; call me Neo-con or whatever label you can concoct. I would were that badge with honor. I will not be complicit in crimes of this regime by advocating and advising people to take it slowly. Finally, you and I are not in any position to understand their daily struggles and therefore, it is inconsequential what you and I want. I only know I do not want to be a Good German anymore.
I ask that you do not marginalize those brave men and women who are standing up to this regime by telling Western readers they are a few and that they are going too fast for demanding their rights. You may mean well but you are as misguided far more than those you label radicals or Neo-con.
Kaj Daro Meriz (coping) has not worked and will not work. Mark my words.
^@Megan:
I don't think naj said she'd never LURKED before. It was just her first time commenting.
Kevina,
Thanks. She has made me too angry. Sorry about that.
@Megan: But you haven't addressed naj's point. The upheaval of '78-'79 was NOT GOOD for Iran. Arguably, it allowed Khomeini and the clerics to consolidate (violently) their power. I'm guessing that many in Iran in, say, early '78 never thought that, two yrs. later, they'd be living in an Islamic Republic. Swift, chaotic revolutions, no matter how noble, usually have unintended (bad) consequences. See the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Revolution" rel="nofollow">French Revolution. Also, they tend to be very bloody.
So you might have your swift revolution, and STILL not get your secular democracy. All you would have is a bunch of dead and injured.
OTOH, the gov't. could decide to give the opposition no other choice. That would be foolish on their part, but you never know
"Mrs. Naj, I want the Islamic Republic to go to hell and I want that Now and not a day or an hour later."
Bravo Megan, the voice of Robespierre rises again. I will say it again, Megan is one of the few honest voices to post here.
She wants the Islamic Revolution to go to hell, she wants the Supreme Leader Khamenei to go to hell, she thinks the Ayatollah Khomeini is already in hell and if Imam Khomeini were still alive she would want him personally set on fire let alone his picture. More than that, she is one of the few to actually recognize the true nature of the Green Leadership. She is a fanatical and passionate enemy of everything about the Islamic Republic and her sincerity and consistency are to be respected.
[...] Go here to see the original: Iran Analysis: Sifting the Propaganda – Government About to Arrest … [...]
Naj, thanks for clarifying your position.
The IRI has inflicted incalculable suffering on many, many Iranians, so it's understandable that some would find your guarded approach objectionable. Personally, I share Megan's unequivocal condemnation of the IRI as a deeply and irredeemably flawed system of governance. However, I also think your guarded tactical approach is the...least bad...option right now.
Also, I agree with you that civil society is a necessary precondition for a functioning democracy. But I'm more optimistic about the prospect of civil society quickly taking root in Iran - only if it were given the chance!
Samuel,
To answer your question from a previous thread - no I wouldn't burn a picture of Khomeini, despite my judgment of him as a duplicitous opportunist who has deeply scarred a millennial civilization with his idolatrous theocracy.
I'd rather use the match for more constructive purposes, like lighting a candle to commemorate the martyred youth of Iran.
Naj,
I hope you didn't take my reference to a "wedgie" as an insult. I used the term because you did on your site and I was just taking a playful jab at you. My brothers/sisters and I used to always try to give each other "wedgies" when we were younger!! On your point on necon angles I believe their is some historical truth to that but I also believe it is being overdone. I believe that because the fact is the necons did stir up a lot of trouble ie operation Ajax for one. However, as your aware almost all in the West were taken by surprise when the protests happened. In addition the US government has been largely silent on the issue fixating on the nuclear issue. When you take all that into context I don't see the necon influence your bringing up.
What I see are 30 years of pent up emotions being released. Is it "neconish" to want radical change when you have been oppressed for so long? I can see your concern with some of the extreme positions but again are the trully neconish? No it is just a reality of the pent up agnst. It's like being being beat up by several people for years then all of sudden only one is left--what do you do? Each person's response will be different but it is bound to be an extremely emotional one. However, like you I don't want to see "revolution" and all the violence that often accompanies it. That is why I like your take on many of the issues. I see your take as one that preaches moderation in light up all this pent up emotion. You want the movement to suceed but to carefully and methodically do it. You don't want to rush because that could lead to disaster and the regime still in power. Am I right about your take on events.
As a side note it is understandable for emotions to be released in the comments at enduringamerica simply because for many in Iran they cannot do so. Doing so in Iran carries great risk of some kind of action from the regime. It is akin to your children crying on your shoulder when they wouldn't do it in front of their peers.
Thx
Bill
Naj,
Also my friend mom is here from Tehran and she is quite old. Her favorite chant is Marg Bar Dictator! It is not just the young who want change and want it quick.
She lived through the 1979 revolution and watched as the theocracy butchered many of her friends simply because they had different political views. Many of these butchered were what we call in the "left" here in the west and actually helped the revolution come about.
Thx
bill
ange paris
I hear you and rest assured I will always support you and the Green movement. Two of my best friends are Iranian and over the years I have heard countless stories of the oppression in Iran. Change is needed and it should be the Iranian people to decide that alone. My only concern is that it may get too radical and give the regime the excuse to violently crack down. I want change but not more death! I fully realize it is an easy statement for me to make because I sit here safely in Chicago. However, had I been an Iranian in Tehran I have to admit I would probably be doing exactly what you are!
Thx
Bill
Bill,
:) I can take jokes :)
All those who are addressing me here; come rant at my blog.
The person who is ashamed of my being a woman ... sigh ... look in the mirror, I imagine you look like Mesbah Yazdi!
Yes ... it's these kind of gun-hoism that dis-attracted me to EA!
@ Naj - love your blog, but back to business! :-)
You posted this on another blog on 12 December regarding the letter/audio statement some allege is from elements of the Iranian army: "This Just in from both Karoubi AND mousavi's facebook: 'following the suspicious statement of the army yesterday, plans for cracking down an imaginary coup d'etat are cooking up. Martial law and broad arrests; they may cut communications. Be prepared and in case of disconnection, don't wait for news from sky'."
I tried to find this on M's blog but failed miserably. Could you indicate exactly where this bit is (English)? I don't think anyone here has pointed this out yet - the fact that Mousavi and Karoubi also think this army statement is suspicious, as well as the TV footage of burning Khomeini's picture.
Naj,
I wouldn't go as far as comparing them to Old Proffesor Crocodile. :) I have to admit I have read quite a bit about him(ie people are sheep in all) and I just laugh at all he says--the guy trully belongs back in 700ad if not a mental hospital. Having read many of Angie and Megan's posts they certaintly don't follow the ideology of Yazdi even if from the opposite side. I think what your seeing is simply an outpouring of emotion pent up for so long. You have to also realize many of these people may have been the beaten or had friends/family who suffered under the regime. If your a mother you should understand when unrestrained emotion bursts forth. God knows when I was younger I was quite hot headed and would often speak before I thought!!
Thx
Bill
Mrs. Naj,
Sorry to disappoint you but I do not look like any of those God's rejects you would like to have around for a little longer. I have no mullah DNA. Indeed, if you see me in the street you will not be able to identify me as an Iranian. Furthermore, I have spent my life in making people live healthier and longer. I detest those murderers who take life, the same people you would like to keep in position of power a little longer.
Your dis-attraction to EA is the best news I could ask for. Go to your Neo-cope and live us the radicals and Neo-conishs alone. You were at EA to get readers for your blog that does not appear to have much traffic. You seem to have accomplished that so please leave this weblog you call highly dubious. Please do not change your mind. Thank you Mrs. Naj.