The Latest from Iran (14 December): Taking Stock
Monday, December 14, 2009 at 10:00 
1745 GMT: Swinging Wildly. A couple of punches from regime supporters this afternoon. The Supreme Leader's representative to the Revolutionary Guard, told Presidential staff that the Khomeini Archive, run by the late Imam's family, is "a base for monafeghin (hypocrites)". The term "monafeghin" is commonly used to refer to the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, the group which has tried to overthrow the Islamic Republic since 1979, often through violence.And Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi took aim at Hashemi Rafsanjani. Yazdi claimed that, when he was head of Iran's judiciary, Rafsanjani asked him to cover up a criminal case against the former President's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi. Yazdi also questioned the intellectual credentials of Mir Hossein Mousavi.
1604 GMT: Confirming the Sentence. We had learned days ago that economist and journalist Saeed Laylaz had been sentenced to nine years in prison. The break-down of the sentence has been released: five years for acts against national security by holding meetings with foreign embassy officials, one year for participating in the protest march of 15 June; two years (and 74 lashes) for insulting officials, one year for propagandizing against the Establishment in his economic analyses over the last eight years.
1558 GMT: Pushing the Issue. For the first time in months, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have requested a permit for a march from the Ministry of Interior.
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1555 GMT: Sanctions? Oops! "A senior official says that a meeting by five world powers on Iran's nuclear program has been canceled due to China's opposition.
The U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany had planned to meet Friday. The official from one of the five world powers demanded anonymity Monday because his information was confidential.
The meeting was to be in Brussels or on the sidelines of the Copenhagen summit." (hat-tip to EA reader)
1510 GMT: Josh Shahryar's latest Green Brief, covering Sunday's events, is now out, covering protests at up to nine Iranian universities, the threat of arrests, and the Supreme Leader's speech, amongst other events.
1500 GMT: There's Mahmoud! The President has met our concerns about his absence (0905 and 0725 GMT) from the domestic crisis with this comment, "The enemies of the Iranian nation are now frustrated and want to take revenge through insulting the country's sanctities....The enemies should fear the typhoon of the Iranian people's anger." Ahmadinejad accused the opposition of being "against the nation" and "agents of foreigners".
1215 GMT: Your New Top Story (if You're Not in Iran). Looks like the "Western" media will surge this morning with a single sentence from Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki at a news conference, passed on by the Associated Press via The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times: the three US hikers detained this summer in Iran had "suspicious aims" and will go on trial. CBS News is now headlining, and CNN now "confirms" (cracking journalism since the press conference was hours ago).
1050 GMT: The Regime's Scramble. A reader reminds us that the Peyke Iran "exclusive" (0915 GMT), on the Armed Forces self-confessed failing to contain the opposition, is from a memorandum from September after the Qods Days protests. The question that prompts is whether, again in light of our analysis this morning, the Armed Forces would revise that assessment three months later.
1040 GMT: The Regime Persists. I guess the Government can't just step away from its "burning Khomeini" game, despite all the complications it has caused. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has claimed that several people have been arrested over the incident.
1030 GMT: Don't Give Them an Excuse. Mir Hossein Mousavi has moved to pre-empt any regime pretext for a crackdown, such as the alleging burning of Khomeini's image, as well as to contain any notion of a "radical" opposition: "From now on all protests and demands should be pursued peacefully and lawfully. Nobody among us should make a pretext for those who are against people."
Mousavi then renewed the "peaceful" challenge:
People have a right to question, they should not be confronted violently....If people's questions were answered and they were not confronted violently we would not see some controversial moves today. People want an end of the security-obsessed atmosphere as in such an atmosphere radicalism grows.
0915 GMT: Analysis Confirmed, Regime Scrambling To Contain Opposition? An EA reader, commenting on our morning analysis about the weekend's threat of arrests, points out a Peyke Iran story: the article claims to have an admission from Iran's Armed Forces that it has failed to contain the Green Movement.
The report from the General Staff allegedly evaluates that the Green Movement has not been fostered by foreign intervention and that it is not following a specific political agenda but is a social and cultural movement. The officers say that, despite isolating the movement's leaders (Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami), the opposition has persisted. Efforts to out-number and overwhelm the demonstrators through counter-protests of Government workers have been hindered by the apathy of the workers or, in some cases, their refusal to heed the call.
An interesting note: the General Staff evaluates that women have been the chief instigators of the protests.
0905 GMT: The Regime Keeps On Spinning. Press TV puts out a boiler-plate story under a dramatic headline, "Figures slam sacrilege of Imam Khomeini portrait". We reported almost all of the comments in yesterday's updates but there is one interesting addition today, in light of our question (0725 GMT), "Where's Mahmoud?". "Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, on Tuesday described the incident as an 'objectionable' move 'that he wished he had never witnessed'."
Hmm, that's six days ago, which is about six years on the calendar of Iranian political developments --- what's Mahmoud been doing since then?
0725 GMT: After a weekend of tension which did not culminate in 1) high-profile arrests or 2) a resolution of the mysterious letter/audio purportedly from Iranian army units ready to "stand with the people" if violence continues but did point to the persistence of protest on university campuses, it is a morning to pause and assess. We have a special analysis on the meaning of the regime's threat, capped by the Supreme Leader's speech yesterday, to vanquish the opposition once and for all.
There's also an important related issue for us to consider before an analysis tomorrow: Where's Mahmoud? It's notable that, in all the public manoeuvres of the last few days, President Ahmadinejad has been off to the side, meeting foreign delegations and waving his fist on the nuclear issue but saying little about the internal situation. Is he being politically sensible in standing back from the front line or has he been put to the side by others, i.e., the Supreme Leader, returning to the shadows that he occupied in the early weeks of this crisis?
Much of this is beyond the "Western" media. The New York Times, for example, has a good article by Michael Slackman this morning on the "burning" of the image of Imam Khomenei. Unfortunately, it's a piece already overtaken by events --- Slackman never notes the threat of arrests of opposition leaders and thus the wider significance of Ayatollah Khamenei's Sunday address.
CNN is just catching up with the "We Are All Majids/All in Hejab" protest over the detention of Majid Tavakoli. The Times of London, meanwhile, is going off on one of its regular sensational strolls in the nuclear woods, claiming from mysterious (and unnamed) sources and buttressing the claim with Israeli comment, "Secret document exposes Iran’s nuclear trigger".
Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, Associated Press, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, CBS News, CNN, China, Faezeh Hashemi, Green Brief, Green Movement, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Josh Shahryar, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Majid Tavakoli, Manouchehr Mottaki, Mehdi Karroubi, Michael Slackman, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mujahedin-e-Khalq, New York Times, Nuclear Proliferation, Peyke Iran, Saeed Laylaz, The Times, Wall Street Journal in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (25)
I'm hearing that Mahmoud has been spending much of the today in & around Parliament meeting various factions, trying to whip up support for the ol' subsidy-phase-out plan again...
BTW, the Iran news on this side of the pond has suddenly blown up this morning. We are getting large doses of all of these:
1) Announcement 3 hikers will be put on trial
2) Iran is testing a key component of a nuclear bomb (! yawn !)
3) The new "cross-dressing revolution" in Iran to support Tavakoli
4) Khomenei photo burning and reaction
5) Spat between Hilary and Chavez over Iran's links to Latin America
Kevin,
Thanks for this. My impression and worry was that the hikers story was going to run everything else off the page. Interesting that stories 3-5 continue to have legs.
S.
Kevin,
That would match up to the meeting he had with Larijanis yesterday.
S.
Where is Mahmoud?
I guess he is having conversations with the Mahdi
http://www.alarabiya.net//articles/2009/12/14/94147.html
http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2009/12/07/93422.html
About the letter/audio from the Army
@Scott, when you visited the University of Leiden, did you happen to meet Mr. Afshin Elian? He is a professor at the Leiden University (international law) and he is a well known Dutch-Iranian columnist and radio/television commentator and analyst concerning Iran related affairs. He believes the letter/audio is true
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/military-mutiny-in-iran/
quote; "I have spoken with several sources inside and outside of Iran. The statement is real. If Khamenei orders the arrest of the officers, resistance will spread like wildfire in all barracks of the regular army"
This article first appeared in the Dutch magazine Elsevier on December 12, 2009.
Nelly,
I noticed only today that Elian is at Leiden. If he was in the audience, he didn't introduce himself --- as I was talking about Obama Admin rather than specifically US policy on Iran, he may not have been there.
I have read the blog but would continue to treat the claim of authenticity with caution at this point.
S.
[...] View post: The Latest from Iran (14 December): Taking Stock | Enduring America [...]
[...]1558 GMT: Pushing the Issue. For the first time in months, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have requested a permit for a march from the Ministry of Interior.[...]
As I understand, they are requesting this permit for a protest against the burning of Khomeini's image. This is very amusing. It puts the government in the position of either granting the green wave a legal permit for protest or denying the people's desire for a protest against the desecration of Khomeini's image (which they've been milking for a week now). Smart move on Mousavi and Karroubi's part making this request.
@ Someone
Pretty smart indeed. They are now putting the regime in a position of " damn if they do and damn if they dont"
Kevin Scott
I am wondering why you use the "YAWN" emoticon against the bit about the alleged find of documentation regarding a so-called nuclear trigger. Are you bored with the subject? Do you disbelieve the subject?
Personally I am neither bored with it - nor do I believe it or not-believe it at this time. I merely note now that a number of mainline newspapers are reporting the story - and allegedly the IAEA is in possession of a copy. However, I AM aware of it's significance if true- or possibly even if UNTRUE. There is a lot of disinformation out there - but even disinformation is important if the perception of it bends the course of history. And human perception is EVERYTHING, truth only prevails after the event.
Barry
@ Cecil
Much enjoyed your comment. This is probably labeled a lost-lost situation.
Imho burning Khomeini's pictures may well have been the work of more radical protesters, but the movement wisely avoids any possibility for direct attacks by the regime.
Quite the contrary it instrumentalizes the IRI's religious logic against itself, as Sazegara's video messages show. Refering to announcements of even stronger suppression by Ejei and Ahmadi Moghaddam, labeled as a "Hosseinian" action, Sazegara strongly condemned this misuse of Imam Hossein's name, especially because this most revered Shiite martyr is famous for being "mazloom", i.e. peaceful and oppressed. Obviously protests in the month of Moharram will be held against Yazeed (who killed Hossein in the battle of Kerbela). Yazeed and Shemr are the two historical (and religious) figures most hated by Iranian Shiites (see Wikipedia for more details). This reversal to the concept of a peaceful Islam, which defends the oppressed, is a nice corroboration for Georgie Geyer's suggestion of a paradigm shift.
On the other hand male protesters have announced that they will cover their heads with scarfs, whenever the crowd shouts for Majid Tavakkoli's release. Strangely enough this forged story has put a new subject on the movement's agenda: equal rights for women.
Today the Frankfurter Allgemeine has an excellent article about crumbling taboos:
http://www.faz.net/s/RubFC06D389EE76479E9E76425072B196C3/Doc~EB1FC369F650B4463BF92DCCF8809E65D~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html
The male youth rejects traditional patriarchic patterns and condemns chauvinist gender definitions, an obvious failure of the regime's propaganda.
Zahra Sajjadi, deputy of AN's Women and Family Centre, truly recognized this failure and proposes more efforts to install the "Holy (Islamic) Family" (sic!):
http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=10719
The nuclear "trigger"issue is real and is yet another clear indication that the IRI is after making the bomb, and soon. This is cause for great concern for all peoples in the Middle East, who fear a nuclear holocaust triggered by the IRI. This is not a joke, nor mere rhetoric.
Someone,
I agree it's a stroke of genius and like Moharram is win win for the opposition and lose lose for the regime.
So let's see how many more stories they can come up with, for the burning of the picture to try and get out of 'another fine mess' they've got themselves in.
Just one more thing to add to the chaos:-)
Hossein
IF this story about the nuclear trigger is true -- then it would completely explain why the Regime does not want to swap ALL of its 3.5% enriched Uranium for 20 % enriched (for use in civilian reactor) .
My understanding is that the original agreement was for Iran to swap 1200 kgs - the latest "offer" from the Regime is to swap only 400 kgs. This would leave them plenty to enrich further for military purposes AND have the 20% stuff for their "civilian" purposes.
Barry
@ Barry
With their Bushehr nuclear power plant due to be launched in March 2010, (according to RIA Novosti), I would have thought they'd want to save some of their 3.5% uranium for that. After such a long tug of war with the Russians to get this thing ompleted, it would be really stupid if at the moment supreme they didn't have enough fuel to run it. :-)
catherine,
Projections for the completion Bushehr plant have been all over the place. Many stated it was ten years back in 1998 yet it still is not done. It is anyone's guess but I would have to guess we are still at least two years off which leaves plenty of time to make more stock.
Thx
Bill
Catherine, I may be mistaken, but I don't think you can run a nuclear power plant off of 3.5% enriched uranium. It has to be enriched to a higher percentage (and even higher for weapons) and Iran does not have the means to do that. I think one way or another they need help in order to fuel Bushehr.
An observation you may find interesting. There is much talk among the youth but also among the older generations and among divergent social strata of Iranian society that this Moharram things will get much more violent, but the whole thing will herald the end of the regime in a very serious way. Popular support for AN has faded to almost zero and on the other hand people are also getting tired of little results. So it seems violence and resistance in different forms may manifest itself throughout Iran. Already we here that even in small towns the Basij and other government groups show fear and move only in groups and that majority of people show a united front against them and violence is reported in many ways and places.
Catherine
My very BASIC understanding of all this is that the 3.5% material in Iran "can" be enriched further to 20% needed for civilian purposes and 90% for military.
The proposal was to swap all of the 3.5% material for 20% material - the form of the 20% material is then such that it is unable to be further enriched.
There are a number of considerations. One is that the Regime does not trust Russia/France to make the swap outside Iran and wants the swap to go ahead inside Iran. The second is that they now only want to swap about a third (400 kg) of their holdings of 3.5% material - which would leave them with sufficient material that could be later further enriched to military grade. The discovery of the plant in Qom (which apparently is quite small and not big enough for industrial scale conversion and creating further material for civilian purposes - but is just a nice size for smaller scale enrichment for military purposes) PLUS the latest claim of proof that Iran has been developing a nuclear trigger all adds up to a vaguely recognizable scenario.
I do think that the Israelis will be thinking now that it looks like a duck and is walking and quacking like a duck. So what do they do about it??
Barry
Somebody,
As Barry points out above, they need to enrich the 3.5% to 20% for civilian use. If were them, I would keep as much 3.5% material as possible for enrichment to 20% for that Bushehr plant. Are you saying that Iran does not have the ability to enrich uranium to 20%? This is actually something I've suspected all along, because otherwise they would have done so by now to solve their Tehran medical reactor problem.
Catherine
There was some talk a few weeks ago - about a "possible " technical problem with their 3.5% enriched material. Possibly contaminated preventing further enrichment.
But who knows?? -- the Regime will say anything, Western sources also say unsubstantiated things - one doesn't really know what the real situation is.
Barry
PS
I think I recall El Baradai saying that the Qom "plant" was nothing more than a hole in the ground???
Barry
Barry
El Baradei has either been seriously duped, or he has his own agenda. He may be naive, too. In any case he has not done his job. He has not warned the international community of the grave dangers posed by IRI's deceitful ways and lies about their atomic program.
Catherine,
I always assumed that since they didn't enrich further than the 3.5% they were incapable of doing it. But I'm not so sure now. Doing a bit more research, it turns out that Bushehr is a "Light Water Reactor" (specifically: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VVER ), which is fuelled by very low enriched Uranium (2.4–4.4%). So I was mistaken about them needing higher enriched uranium for the reactor and your original comment is right.