Wednesday
Dec022009
The Latest from Iran (2 December): Postures and a Resolution
Wednesday, December 2, 2009 at 11:12 
1140 GMT: Checking in briefly from Holland, I find that economist and journalist Saeed Laylaz has been given a nine-year prison sentence, according to his lawyer. Reports yesterday indicated that Laylaz might receive a 15-year sentence.The Latest from Iran (1 December): A Week of Expectation
0600 GMT: First, the resolution. Iranian state radio are reporting that the five British sailors, detained last week on a racing yacht that strayed into Iranian waters, will be released. So quiet diplomacy seems to have trumped any thoughts that an Iranian faction --- let's say, the Revolutionary Guard --- might have had of using the incident to assert authority.
Then again, the Revolutionary Guard may have made its point, both to Britain and to others in the regime. It can flex both military and political muscle with its "defense" of Iran's borders by land or by sea and, for at least several days, set the rules of the game.
Rules that even the President might have to heed: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seems to be off on one of his I'm a World Leader, All Else Melts into Air mental journeys. His speech last night was a holiday snapshot of his Latin American tour, followed by more posturing against the "West". The "10 enrichment plants" stunt seems to have been given up, so now it's maybe we let inspectors in, maybe we don't. (Which, if you ask me, is tempting fate --- just ponder the case of a Mr S. Hussein)
That may work on the domestic front politically. Rather than directly address the challenges of an Ali Larijani, global evasion may signal that Ahmadinejad is too big for the trifles of Parliamentary Speakers. Still, the economy lurks, and it is there that the President may have to go hand-to-hand with the Majlis over his proposals.
And, beyond that, can Ahmadinejad strike the pose that the opposition beyond does not really exist, as Iran unites behind its world-leading position and nuclear sovereignty? I have the impression that he thinks he can.
Which is a convenient link to the calendar note: five days to 16 Azar.
Reader Comments (7)
I have a suggestion to overcome the problem of insecurity during the demonstrations inside the country; the leaders of opposition are wealthy, as we have seen on many videos concerning their accounts in foreign banks abroad ; they have to hire the body gards for the demonstrators "only " to defend and not to attack !! but they have to be numerous not three or four people; for each 100 persons 10 body gards; as we have seen, the bassijs were paid , they have also to pay for the security of " the people" ;
They have to multiply the interventions of opposition's representants in the international media outside the country, a huge advertising against the governement an AN; it's "vital"
Pedestrian please , forward and thanks
another thing, the leaders of opposition have to forestall the "acts" of the coup governement , and, before 16 azar , going to a friend's house or a member of their family's house , not to be attacked the "d" day which will be disappointing for the students who will be waiting for their attendance .
It's also " vital " for the opposition's life !!
Pedestrian , you know " what" to do !
Two very good articles I read today:
The Hardliners' Nulcear Dilemma, by MUHAMMAD SAHIMI on Tehran Bureau
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2009/12/the-green-movement-and-irans-nuclear-program.html
and
What Iran Is Losing To Get Nuclear Energy?, by Bahman Aghai Diba on Payvand.com
http://www.payvand.com/news/09/dec/1006.html
Catherine
Thank you so much for your intressting articles; especially the first one !
Economic problems in Iran?? What problems??
Here is a picture of some VERY well fed Iranians. They are obviously not suffering economically.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/images/khamenei%2BIRGC.jpg
Barry
Barry
:-)
@ Barry+Ange
Barry's picture proves that at least Church and State aren't losing anything to get nuclear energy....