The Latest from Iran: Momentum against a Sinking President? (22 December)
Tuesday, December 22, 2009 at 16:50 
2310 GMT: Moving Towards Qom. More chatter on the post-funeral tension in Qom --- Norooz claims people are moving from Isfahan and Najafabad to "defend" the house of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri.2300 GMT: Mahmoud Fights Back? On a day which began with our analysis that the President is scrambling to maintain any legitimacy, it appears he tried to send out a signal tonight with the dismissal of Mir Hossein Mousavi as head of the Arts Institute. Salaam News reports that Ahmadinejad flew back from Shiraz just for the meeting deciding on the sacking of Mousavi and will now return to Shiraz.
Then again, one wonders if that will be enough to show Mahmoud's muscle. According to Peyke Iran, only 40 people were on hand to greet Ahmadinejad at Shiraz's airport this morning.
NEW Latest Iran Video: University Demonstrations for Montazeri (22 December)
NEW Iran Special Analysis: After Montazeri — From Protest to Victory?
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Last Goodbye to Montazeri (21 December)
Latest Iran Video: Mourning Montazeri (21 December — 2nd Set)
Latest Iran Video: Mourning Montazeri (21 December — 1st Set)
Iran & The Nuclear Talks: The View from Tehran
Iran Video & Text: Montazeri’s Son Saeed On His Father’s Views, Last Words
The Latest From Iran (21 December): The Montazeri Funeral
2230 GMT: Back from break to find discussion still going on about possible paramilitary/security forces threat to Ayatollah Sane'i, with Rouydad saying that followers have declared their readiness to defend the cleric.
1930 GMT: Rahesabz.net is reporting that Mir-Hossein Mousavi has been finally removed from the directorship of the Farhangestan Institute of Arts - Ali Moallem has been selected as his replacement. The move was decided by the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, which decides on major cultural issues.
1730 GMT: The Internet is buzzing with stories that Government supporters and plainclothes officers have attacked the offices of Ayatollah Sane'i, following vandalism against Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's house and image yesterdat. There is also chatter that a permit has been given for a Basiji march on Sane'I's offices on Wednesday. A story in Radio Zaamaneh summarises the chatter.
Given the volatile situation in Qom, we are being very careful with the reports, which we cannot verify.
1645 GMT: We're off for a holiday break this evening, returning for a wrap-up of the day's events later. Thanks to all for ideas and contributions today.
1545 GMT: Hitting Back. More on that "Ayatollah" we mentioned briefly earlier (1208 GMT), who was taking a shot at both Grand Ayatollah Montazeri and those who mourned him yesterday: it's the Supreme Leader's representative to the Revolutionary Guard, Mojtaba Zolnour.
Zolnour said, "Ayatollah Montazeri was a deputy to Imam Khomeini who misused his power...and meddled in the country's affairs and this served as one of the reasons for his dismissal." As for the crowd in Qom, Zolnour snapped, "Certain individuals...have engaged in confronting the religious leadership...These opportunistic individuals ... engaged in creating chaos, breaking car windows and chanting anti-leadership slogans to destroy the Islamic establishment."
1530 GMT: Regime Tensions? An article in the reformist Rooz Online claims to document unease between Iran's armed forces and the Revolutionary Guard.
1430 GMT: Karroubi Spreads His Message. Another interview with Mehdi Karroubi in the "Western" media, this time in The Times of London. Karroubi, answering written questions, maintains both his defiance and his criticism of the regime while seeking a return to the "right" path of the Islamic Republic and Ayatollah Khomeini:
In today’s Iran, republicanism and Islamism are severely damaged and a lot of the revolution’s principles and the Imam’s have been undermined....If the Imam were alive, without doubt this would not have happened....As one of the Imam’s students and close friends I frankly say that those who claim to act on his thoughts had the least personal, emotional and intellectual closeness to him.
The significance of the statement is almost lost, however, amidst near-farcical ineptitude by Times journalists. They fail to set the interview in the context of the developments since the weekend. Far worse, they headline the article with a "surprising twist": "Mehdi Karroubi warned the West against exploiting the regime’s weakness to strike a deal to halt a nuclear programme that was, he insisted, for peaceful purposes." This is based on the following Karroubi quote:
Nuclear science and achieving peaceful nuclear technology is a right reserved for all NPT [Nuclear Proliferation Treaty] members. We ask Western governments not to use this internal situation as a bargaining chip with the present Iranian Government to reach agreements which would undermine the rights of the Iranian people.
Far from outing himself as a nuclear hardliner (which is a dreadful misrepresentation that has led some in the US to keep the Green movement as arm's length), Karroubi is simply asserting that nuclear power (not nuclear weapons) is a sovereign right. More importantly, his message is that the "West" should not give the Iranian Government legitimacy --- a legitimacy it has failed to establish at home --- through a high-profile agreement.
So a valuable opportunity wasted. Pearls before swine, as my grandmother used to say....
1330 GMT: We're Watching You. An Iranian blogger has posted photographs of Government operatives filming and photographing yesterday's crowd in Qom.
1215 GMT: Today's Protests. We've posted the first claimed video of demonstrations at Elm-o-Sanat and Kurdistan Universities.
1208 GMT: Propaganda of Day. There is the same exact story in both IRNA and Fars News of an Ayatollah denouncing yesterday's demonstrations in Qom, but that's a trifle compared to Fars' attempted top story. Apparently there will be a "large gathering" of people in Qom this afternoon to denounce the recent treatment of the image of Ayatollah Khomeini.
To illustrate the story, Fars has a photo of a recent "large gathering", presumably from last :
1200 GMT: Similar coverage of the Ahmadinejad speech, albeit with a lot more extracts from the speech, by Islamic Republic News Agency.
1155 GMT: And Here's Mahmoud. A massive surprise here: according to Press TV, the President avoided any reference to internal events in his speech in Shiraz and kept it international by attacking the US:
The problem is that the US seeks to dominate the Middle East but the Iranian nation is an obstacle....The nuclear game is repetitious, old-fashioned and boring. Say publicly that you are seeking dominance over the Middle East but Iran does not allow [you]....The world should know that the Iranian nation and the regional countries will make it impossible for the US to dominate the Middle East.
There was more tough talk for Washington on Iran's nuclear potential:
[You should] know that if we wanted to build bombs, we had enough courage to announce that we were making bombs. We are a great and brave nation. We told you that we will launch the [nuclear] fuel cycle and we did it. We told you that we will industrialize the fuel production and we did it....We told you that we will launch a new generation of centrifuges and we did.
No indication in the Press TV article, either in text or photographs, to the size of the crowd, let alone the events of the last 48 hours.
1150 GMT: Sideshows. In case you want a diversion from the main event, here's Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki being tough with France on the nuclear issue: "The French must try to avoid the failed policies that Washington and London have employed during the past few years. It is better for Paris to adopt a policy that is in accordance with the country's prestige."
Or you can tune in to Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, waving his fist: "My belief remains that political means are the best tools to attain regional security and that military force will have limited results. However, should the president call for military options, we must have them ready."
1140 GMT: Claims of student protests at Tehran Azad University and at Oloom Tahghighat University.
1130 GMT: No clashes reported at the Beheshti University protest. Meanwhile, reports that more than 50 (one report says 230) Najafabad University students have been summoned for disciplinary action, presumably in connection with protests surrounding the death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri.
There is also a report that electricity was cut off to a student residence at Razi University in Kermanshah, with students ordered to remain in their rooms, to prevent protests.
1100 GMT: Demonstrations v. The President. News is emerging of a protest at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran, with students demanding the release of classmates arrested on 16/17 Azar (7-8 December). There are also reports of demonstrations at Elm-o-Sanat University in the capital. Reports indicate that security forces have surrounded the campuses to prevent protest moving to Tehran streets.
Meanwhile, we are looking for news on President Ahmadinejad's appearance in Shiraz. Activists are claiming that the regime struggled to get an audience of 10,000.
0945 GMT: From Protest to Victory? We've posted a special analysis, in light of the events of the last 48 hours: "Is there any possibility of a 'movement from below' that frames and presses demands to a satisfactory conclusion?"
0803 GMT: The Iconic Video? We've posted a lengthy (4+ minutes) video of yesterday's crowd in Qom. Words cannot summarise it.
(But, to raise a smile, set this footage against the claim in the pro-regime newspaper Kayhan, noted in yesterday's updates, that "a maximum of 5000 people" turned out.)
0800 GMT: The President's Test. Ahmadinejad is now in Shiraz. We're monitoring carefully both for his statement and any news on the size and mood of the crowd.
0745 GMT: A later and quieter start to the morning after the drama, sorrow, anger, and hope of the last 48 hours. We're working on a special analysis evaluating the significance of the events surrounding Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's death: is this now the next great Green wave of change?
In this context, there is an unintentionally funny sideshow exposing both the weakness of a President and his best (if unintentional) friend yesterday: the American ABC News. Last night Ahmadinejad appeared on the channel which, for days, had been shouting about its "exclusive" interview with the US Public Enemy Number One.
Here are ABC's self-promoting highlights of the discussion: 1) "Iran Prez Won't Say Yes-or-No to Nuclear Bomb"; 2) "Obama Didn't Deserve Nobel Prize"; 3) "Ahmadinejad Defiant Over Sanctions Threat"; 4) "Hiker's Mom Made Christmas Appeal to Ahmadinejad" [three US citizens, detained after they entered Iranian territory this autumn, remain under threat of trial for espionage]. Because the story was written soon after the interview was taped last week, there was no reference to Grand Ayatollah Montazeri or any considered question about the political challenge to the President and the regime.
(In grudging fairness, it appears that ABC re-positioned the clips they showed last night to get some connection with developments. Diane Sawyer's lead question, over archive shots of mass demonstrations this summer, was whether Ahmadinejad would guarantee that protesters would be safe. Ahmadinejad's response: "Can the people in America come on the streets anytime they want?"
That --- again to give some redemption to ABC --- brought out a telling moment. When Sawyer assured Ahmadinead that, yes, with a permit Americans could demonstrate, the President looked a bit uncertain, "Are you sure?" before declaring, "In Iran we have got freedom, more than there is in America.")
A classic example, therefore, of the blinkers of sensationalism but, more importantly, an illustration of Ahmadinejad's fragile position: who amongst the crowd in Qom yesterday really cared about the words he put out on American television screens last evening?
ABC News, Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, Azad University Tehran, Barack Obama, Diane Sawyer, Elm-o-Sanat University, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Kayhan, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Manouchehr Mottaki, Mehdi Karroubi, Mike Mullen, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mojtaba Zolnour, Najafabad University, Norooz, Peyke Iran, Razi University, Rooz Online, Shahid Beheshti University, The Times in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (21)
Today, a ceremony will be held in Ispahan in memory of Ayatollah Montazeri and tomorrow in Zhedan
If you're curious to know what people were chanting on Monday, most of the videos posted here have also been posted at The Lede with translations of all the chants and explanations by their Iranian correspondent:
http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/21/updates-on-dissident-clerics-funeral-in-iran/?partner=rss&emc=rss
Not to dispute the steady, marvelous Karoubi's statement, but just wondered about this. In that interview, he's quoted as saying:
"If the Imam were alive, without doubt this would not have happened….As one of the Imam’s students and close friends I frankly say that those who claim to act on his thoughts had the least personal, emotional and intellectual closeness to him."
This description of Khomeni's intentions/behavior seems to contradict what Montazeri stated for all the world to hear for about 20 years. which triggered his dismissal as Khomeni's deputy and successor.
What am I missing here? Will someone please explain what appears to be a discrepancy between the two clerics' words? Thanks.
[Duplicate- comment caught in spam filter]
re: 1530 GMT: Regime Tensions? The Rooz article is actually translated from the Spanish site ABC(and linked to the original.) It appears to be about the anonymous army officers' letter covered and much debated on EA a week or more ago.
Personally I think it would be more surprising if there wasn't any resentment from the army towards IRGC given the latter's power and privileged status.
Scot
Given the 1730 update on Ayatollah Sane'i, thought I'd remind you of this documentary done by (none other than) Maziar Bahari for Al Jazeera in October 2008. It's entertaining and gives a good background on the person that is most likely to "succeed" Ayatollah Montazeri.
This post from the blog Keeping the Change has links to the full video and background on Sane'i and the documentary.
http://keepingthechange.blogspot.com/2009/10/video-online-ayatollah-profiling-grand.html
@Observer
Karoubi same as all reformists needs to be carefull with his words, he needs to create a situation where he challenges the men in power but not the islamic revolution and its founder. He needs to be the true man of revolution and not an anti revolutionary. The strategy of the greens has always been that the current regime is corrupt and is not following the Imam's path. Attacking the islamic revolution and Khomeini is at this moment nothing short of suicide.
@Afshin and Observer
I have to agree with Afshin's analysis that Karoubi's words are attacking the current leaders of the IRI without attacking the system or the republic or even the velayat system. Karoubi is excellent in this strategy. As the executor of the Imam Khomeini state and affairs of the Imam post his death, Mr. Karoubi is also drawing a line between himself and others, and saying that he was a trusted man by Imam, he knew him personally and as such he has an advantage over the AN / Pasdaran clan that have only known him from afar..
"Farhangestan Institute of Arts" = Iran's Academy of Arts
http://www.honar.ac.ir/IndexE.htm
So how will the "succession" of Montazeri's spiritual tradition actually work? My understanding is his followers are now free to shop around for a new Marja to register with, is it likely they will all choose to follow Sanei? Maybe there will be a wave of support for one of the others we don't know too much about.
I just wonder how the mechanics of it all work, will the marjas gather in secrecy and settle any final matters that might need taking care of? Any mysterious rituals like the Vatican smoke signals? Just curious about it all.
@Afshin and @whereismy vote,
Thank you sincerely for the explanation. Already understood that the opposition leaders intended to remain within the fold of original founders of the revolution. One of which was Montazeri, a primary one, whom both Karoubi and Mousavi revere.
Montazeri's epiphany altered his assessment of what the revolution had become, right? And his bold statements about Khomeni and the system's mistakes are now historical record.
Sooooo, cognitive dissonance remains here. Opposition leaders are saying 'don't buck the system, denounce its current performance -- is that it? Meanwhile, Montazeri, whom they all elevate, bucked the whole thing because of its numerous injustices, and he paid the price. Rafsanjani's infrequent line, drawn from Islamic history, is 'if the people don't want you, you have to go." And the three all want change, don't they? Is this perhaps using the 'semantics of survival ...'
I do understand that anyone who denounces the system at the moment is a dead person, yet the current mix somehow does not cohese, in fact, defies logic for an unsubtle, Westerner.
No matter, am rooting for all Iranis who seek freedom and justice, in their own way and on their own terms. Again, thanks for the helpful comments.
2230 and 2310 is maybe exactly what is needed to get out of the Deadlock..
We are going in circles, we have been for months. Montazeris sudden death had given the greens alot of life and perhaps will seduce the Guards to make a mistake which could work as oil on this allready burning fire.
In order to move forward something is needed. Either National Strikes or at the least the oil sector or the bazaar or otherwise whats claimed on 2230 and 2310.
This show is ready for the next curtain... Ashoora may very well be end of Part one, come part 2
@Observer
Dont try to find to much logic and consistancy in either party, Montazeri was of a rear breed within politics. Infact he was not a politician and history shows it.
the other puppets are politicians and we all know that they only focuss on the parts that suit their agenda.
In this case what suits Karoubi is not what devides Montazeri and Khomeini but what unites them. So he chooses wisely to only focus on that. Thats not any diffrent then any other politician.
Iran is attacked by the world fo allgedly having a nuclear program in order to create an atomic bomb while no proof so far has been given, Israel has an arsenal of them yet you dont hear the same countries on Israel. Consistancy and politics have never been friends.
Hence people like Montazeri have never succeeded in politics. The likes of mousavi, karoubi, Hashemi have...
Ashfin
"what is needed to get out of the Deadlock.."
It may already be starting. Reports (unconfirmed) of large numbers of people from Najafabad & Esfahan heading for Qom to "protect" Ayat Sanei- and reports of 5000 people uprising in Sirjan to prevent a public hanging.
The pot is starting to boil.
Barry
Where is My Vote and Afshin,
Wild Card number 1: U.S. negotiaites with Iran .
Wild Card number 2: The man, Grand Ayatollah Hossien-Ali Montazeri, completes his life.
Wild Card number 3: ?
Lee,
Much appreciated.... A useful reminder and I'll be watching tomorrow,
S.
I have always (for the past few months) said that we are in a stale mate situation, and that the only option for reformers is to keep the deadlock going, and to continue to protest every 5 to 6 weeks. It is this movement that circumvents the Pasdaran from landing the wining punch, With each round we can hope that the Pasdaran will wear down, tire and the descent among the ranks expand. The death of Montazari was an extra round squeezed in between. The major game changer I see is either a mass murder in the streets such as Pasdaran opening fire, killing manay, which so far they have not made, or a big shakeup of the leadership, such as a stroke or something for Khamanei.
Else we will have to brace ourselves for this to continue till at least mid spring, before we have enough momentum to push for strikes and civil disobedience on a mass scale.
One last comment, stalemate is also victory for the greens as we have time on our side. Every week that this mess continues the regime crumbles.
Where is My Vote,
A Draw is a win in guerrilla warfare.
@Observer
In my opinion, there isn't really dissonance between the two groups. Karroubi, Mousavi and Khatami have always been conscious of saying that the current regime is not following Khomeini's ways- it seems to be more of a strategy to make it harder for Khamenei to paint them as foreign agents or un-Islamic. It would be much easier for Khamenei to denounce them if they outright said they did not want an Islamic Republic at all.
Now, Montazeri, however, being a marja- the highest ranking a Shi'a cleric can attain- is able to more directly attack the IRI system because of his clerical ranking (where he is senior to even the Supreme Leader).
The Green Movement has continually been using the regime's own weapons to fight back, such as chanting "Allah Akbar" and hijacking their rallies. From what I have seen, there seems to be a widening call for a secular democracy, but the protesters have been careful not to target Khomeini- similarly to Karroubi's methods- so that Khamenei cannot try to paint them as foreign agents.
@whereismyvote
Fully agree. With the Pasdaran being seduced to make a mistake I mean exactly that. opening fire on the people in bright daylight for the world to see...
[...] America has had some great coverage, including videos of university demonstrations, live-blogs (1, 2), and a thoughtful situation analysis titled From protest to victory?. There’s also a good [...]