The Latest on Iran (29 December): A Desperate Swing of the Fist

1930 GMT: Kill Them. Abbas Vaez-Tabasi, a member of the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts has declared on state television, "Those who are behind the current sedition in the country ... are mohareb (enemies of God) and the law is very clear about punishment of a mohareb [execution]."

Today's Show of Support for the Regime? If you believe Peyke Iran, it wasn't much. The website reports that residents in Rasht ridiculed a demonstration of 300 plainclothes Basijis chanting slogans for the execution of reformists like Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi.

1850 GMT: Javan Farda reports that Shiraz University was closed today.

1845 GMT: The Arrests Move Higher. Government forces have arrested Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief aide Alireza Beheshti. Beheshti, the son of one of Iran's most commemorated martyrs, Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti, was also detained briefly in September when the regime tried to disrupt preparations for Qods Day demonstrations.

NEW Latest Iran Video: Today’s University Protest (29 December)
NEW Iran: A List of the Ashura Detainees
NEW Iran: The Regime's Fightback?
Latest Iran Video: Obama Condemns “Violent & Unjust Suppression” (28 December)
Iran: Ashura’s Message “Iranians Are Not Punching Bags” (Josh Shahryar)
Iran: A Point of No Return?
The Latest from Iran (28 December): The Regime’s Arresting Strategy

1830 GMT: The Karroubi Family Speaks Out (Cont.): Mehdi Karroubi's son Taghi has added to the criticisms by Karroubi's wife and son Hossein of regime restrictions on his father. He said that Government-provided security has stopped protecting Karroubi when he leaves the house. This is effectively a ''quasi-house arrest'.'

Karroubi's car was attacked on Saturday by assailants.

1815 GMT: Attacks on the Clerics. Ayatollah Sane'i now appears to be a primary target of the regime: assaults on his offices by plainclothes men have been reported in Tehran, Mashhad, Kerman, Sari, Gorgan, and Shiraz.

Attacks in Shiraz on the Qoba Mosque and the residence of Ayatollah Dastghaib have also been reported.

1730 GMT: "Western" Media and the Green Movement. A reporter from The Times of London has asked us to clarify our opening update (0710 GMT). While we mentioned the newspaper as part of "a chorus of affirmation that this opposition is on the point of victory", he/she wants to make clear that it should not be included in our preceding reference that "most of [the Western media] had written off the opposition only a month ago".

1720 GMT: The Elm-o-Sanat Protest. We've posted three clips from today's demonstration at Elm-o-Sanat University in Tehran. Gooya reports that more than 10 students were injured in clashes with security forces.

1650 GMT: Mahmoud Speaks. President Ahmadinejad has surfaced to comment on the Ashura protests: "The Iranian nation has seen a lot of such masquerades. A Zionist (Israeli), and American ordered [nauseating] masquerade."

1645 GMT: The Karroubi Family Protests. Back from a break to find that the family of Mehdi Karroubi striking out at Government restrictions. Karroubi's son Hossein has announced that his father is “partially imprisoned” because security personnel refuse to cooperate with him. Karroubi's wife Fatemeh writes that her family has been threatened by “nightly attacks of arbitrary forces” She says that she will hold the government responsible for any incident that may affect members of her family.

1225 GMT: Reading Iran from the US. We've just posted the analysis of Karim Sadjadpour and Trita Parsi of the Ashura protests on the Public Broadcasting Service.

1224 GMT: Reports that journalist Nasrin Vaziri, who works for ILNA and Khabar Online, has been arrested.

1214 GMT: Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi said that seven people were killed in Ashura clashes (which is kind of strange, since the official line on Monday was that 10 "terrorists" had been slain).

1210 GMT: Here Come the Guards. The Revolutionary Guard jump into the regime's fightback against the Ashura protests: "The...foreign media...has staged a psychological war. Trying to overthrow the system will reach nowhere...designers of the unrest will soon pay the cost of their insolence...The opposition, which has joined hands with the foreign media, is backed by foreign enemies."

1205 GMT: Only a matter of time before this "analysis" was attempted --- the editor of Kayhan, Hossein Shariatmardari, has accused Mir Hossein Mousavi of planning the assassination of his nephew.

1155 GMT: Report coming in that Reza Tajik, journalist and religious activist, was arrested today in front of the Etemaad newspaper Building. Photojournaist Sam Mahmoudi has also reportedly been arrested.

Another activist reports that Dr. Housein Mousavian, a member of the National Front, has been arrested.

1120 GMT: Did Trees Have to Die for This? A Mr Will Heaven seeks his 15 seconds of attention with this blotting of the pages of The Daily Telegraph, "Iran and Twitter". I have more important things to do, such as using Twitter as a portal to keep up with and report on the latest developments inside Iran, so let me respond Tweet-style:

@WillHeaven: U know nothing of #Twitter, #IranElection, or #Iran (& u rip off #Salon, who tried this shtick last week)

1115 GMT: We have posted a list of Ashura detainees, compiled by Tehran Bureau's Muhammad Sahimi last night before the latest reports of arrests.

1040 GMT: Arrest Them All. The latest detainees include journalist Mohammad Javad Saberi and Shahpour Kazemi, the brother of Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard. Kazemi was detained for months earlier in the crisis before his release in the autumn.

Journalists Badrosadat Mofidi, Nasrin Vaziri, and Keyvan Mehregan have also been detained.

1020 GMT: Ali Larijani --- No Compromise. Speaker of Parliament Larijani, commenting on the Ashura protests, has told lawmakers that officials should "arrest offenders of the religion and mete out harshest punishments to such anti-revolutionary figures with no mercy".

The rhetoric isn't significant: it matches that coming from pro-regime media and "hard-line" MPs (see 0850 GMT). The political symbolism is: Larijani --- who has clashed with President Ahmadinejad throughout this crisis and was reportedly involved in the discussion of a National Unity Plan ---is now declaring that confrontation takes priority over any attempt at a negotiated resolution.

And he is doing so even as the Supreme Leader (is Larijani serving here as a spokesman for Khamenei?) and Ahmadinejad remain publicly silent.

0850 GMT: "Cut Off Their Hands". Scattered hard-line noises out of Iran's Parliament. Mohammad Karamirad, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said that the committee will hold a special meeting on Wednesday to discuss the Ashura protests. Security officials from the Interior Ministry, the Intelligence Ministry, and the police will be invited.

Don't be fooled that this is an impartial enquiry into the demonstrations, however. Karamirad declared, "Rioters who took to streets are challenging the very foundations of the ruling system....They insult Islamic beliefs, and it is our duty to cut off the hands behind such seditious acts and bring an end to the events that endanger the safety and security of the people." He also called on Iran's judiciary to prosecute the leaders of the protests.

Hossein Sobhaninia, another member of the committee, joined that call. He said that events, in which the sanctities of Islam were disrespected and government officials were insulted, would not end if the judiciary did not deal with the seditious acts.

750 GMT: Which Way Forward? Following up on our snap 5-point analysis of the significance of the Ashura protests, an EA reader directs us to the thoughts of Ebrahim Nabavi in Rah-e-Sabz. Nabavi searches for a positive outcome to the conflict, advising the opposition to leave enough space for the regime to prevent a fierce confrontation.

0710 GMT: We begin this morning with a summary and analysis of the Government's attempt to restore some credibility through the rather crude tactic of arresting lots of people it does not like or trust. One of the latest names to emerge is Nushin Ebadi, the sister of the Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi.

Meanwhile, it is stunning how the Western media --- most of whom had written off the opposition only a month ago --- are now a chorus of affirmation that this opposition is on the point of victory. The Times of London proclaims "the tipping point of revolution". Abbas Milani in The Wall Street Journal announces "The Tipping Point in Iran". (Note to EA readers: if we ever use "tipping point" in an analysis, pull us aside for a journalistic flogging for the crime Resorting to Overused Cliche.) The Washington Post has the variant of "Iran's Turning Point". The New York Times offers support through an editorial denouncing "Iran's War on Its People".

Comments

[Scott Lucas]

WIMV,

Much appreciated --- will update.

S.

[tekhelet16]

Robert Fisk is a well-known dhimmi/arab-lover.

Like people who support palestinians but don't utter a word against Iranians being murdered by their regime.

"By their(lack of) words shall ye know them".

[Amirkabir32]

Here are some reports on pro-government organized "self-organized" protests.

MPs protesting against the protesters:
http://www.payvand.com/news/09/dec/1290.html

Qum protests:
http://www.payvand.com/news/09/dec/1236.html

[kevina]

Re: "MP's protesting against the protesters," LOL. A motley little crew they make, no? Really, a gov't. protesting against its people?

One question: With Larijani now choosing "full defense" of regime/gov't, whither Raffers?

[ChrisE]

Punch becomes Slap.

Has anyone else notice the subtle change in translation regarding Iran's warning to the British government. Until an hour or so ago, BBC website reported that Britain has been given a warning that it may receive "a punch on the mouth."

Now it states: Britain has been given a warning by Iran's foreign minister that it will "get slapped in the mouth".

I'm not going to argue that this marks a huge semantic shift, but it was obviously significant enough to warrant the amendment. It does perhaps slightly change the tone. It indicates once again that even subtle translation nuances can have diplomatic implications- see, for example, the famous A-jad 'wiped of the map' quote.

[Arshama]

@ ChrisE

In Germany Katajun Amirpur, regularly contributing to Sueddeutsche Zeitung, declared A-jad's "wipe off the map" as a translation mistake (sic!). Fortunately this regime has its loyal supporters everywhere...

In an interview with Tageszeitung (taz) human rights activist Shahi Sadr approved sanctions against the IRI today, because they would predominantly affect the regime: "In Iran the whole economy is under governemental control. Talking about the economic system in Iran means talking about a system of oppression. Sanctions would target this oppression."
http://www.taz.de/1/archiv/print-archiv/printressorts/digi-artikel/?ressort=sw&dig=2009%2F12%2F29%2Fa0095&cHash=fdf74666cd

[Arshama]

Uhm, pardon me, should read ShaDi Sadr, of course!

I cannot resist to post this news: Ayatollah Khamenei's jet to Russia put on standby.
http://www.rnw.nl/english/article/iran-has-plane-ready-take-leader-safety
The related Persian formal circular looks very authentic: http://planet-iran.com/index.php/news/5943

Time To Say Goodbye ;-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbN0g8-zbdY&feature=fvw

[whereismyvote]

Clip showing Iranian Police driving over pedestrian protesters.

http://www.youtube.com/user/IranFree88#p/a/u/0/KLHBjOrCKc4

[Bozorg]

A lot of those guys look like they could use a few laps around the Majlis.

Scott, I just a broadcast newsreel from the CBC that showed footage of a pro-gov rally. It didn't look like it was in Tehran, more like a provincial town. The crowd was noticeably elderly and slovenly.

Retuers is reporting that an aide to Khamenei is calling for the execution of opposition leaders. The article puts the number of pro-gov demonstrators at tens of thousands. I find crowd estimations in Reuters articles to be unsourced, unreliable, and lacking context. The most lamentable headline I've read was a Reuters one on Qods day - "Iran opposition to attend anti-Israeli rally"

Today's article - http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCALDE5BQ06J20091229?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

After months of hemming and hawing, Larijani's unequivocal pro-gov stance is the final death knell for any compromise or conciliation.

[Bozorg]

Scott......I mean, I SAW a broadcast newsreel from the CBC...I think they're the Canadian equivalent of the BBC, national public broadcasting, something like that...

[Fatima]

It's not just foreign media that is behind this. Let us not forget the Baha'is and Zionists! http://www.bahairights.org/2009/12/29/iran-state-media-blames-the-bahai-sect-for-recent-unrest/

[Bozorg]

Oops...I see you've already caught wind of it.

[kevina]

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE5BQ06J20091229" rel="nofollow">Another link on the Khamenei rep.'s remarks.

Bozorg's comment on Larijani is right, I think.

[Arshama]

@ Ayatollah Vaez Tabassi

In August 2003 Forbes published the article "Millionaire Mullahs", also referring to VT:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2003/0721/056_print.html
"Iran's foundations are a law unto themselves. The largest "charity" (at least in terms of real estate holdings) is the centuries-old Razavi Foundation, charged with caring for Iran's most revered shrine--the tomb of Reza, the Eighth Shiite Imam, in the northern city of Mashhad. It is run by one of Iran's leading hard-line mullahs, Ayatollah Vaez-Tabasi, who prefers to stay out of the public eye but emerges occasionally to urge death to apostates and other opponents of the clerical regime."
Obviously he has a lot to loose...

[kevina]

Just rumors here, but from Mehdi Saharkhiz:

http://twitter.com/onlymehdi/status/7170342062" rel="nofollow">RUMORS for tomorrow.

The bombing story is spreading, so I can see it. On arrests, I think Karroubi's first, if they really do it.

[amir]

Bunch of videos here (description are in persian)
http://balatarin.com/topic/2009/12/29/1004074

[Megan]

Scott,

Here is link to Peyke Iran that reports arrest of Seyad Ali Reza Beheshti at 1:00 pm on December 28 at his place of work at the university and while he was teaching a class. http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=11444

[amir]

Scot:
Dr. Beheshti (Son of Ayattolah Beheshti) is arrested today
Here is the link in farsi:http://www.rahesabz.net/story/6653/
In addition to him , Mr. Beheshti shirazi is also arrested
and also many others

[Megan]

Re: Video showing hit and run by the police:

I read somewhere (honestly I do not remember where) that the death of Mousavi’s nephew was an assassination attempt. Mousavi’s nephew had been run over by a car as he was leaving his house; his body then had been transported to a different location and shot as if he was in the protest area. I will try to search for the source if I can.

[Scott Lucas]

Megan,

Makhmalbaf has been claiming that Mousavi's nephew was assassinated. The story is circulating in a number of outlets like Christian Science Monitor.

All,

Thanks so much for links and stories --- I haven't had time to thank each of you but I now find these updates to be a collective effort.

S.

[Bozorg]

Radio Netherlands claims that a Dutch-based Iranian newspaper has received a fax concerning plans for Khamenei's flight out of the country in the event of further chaos. http://tiny.cc/RrWtk

This may be useful if it can be cross referenced against other sources with similar info. But I doubt the situation is so precarious that he's packing his bags. Not yet at least.

Iranians have always been a gossipy bunch, and the Tehran rumor mill is always whizzing. It was my experience when visiting Iran that conjecture, educated guesses and whimsical hypotheses effortlessly transmogrified into cold hard fact.

[Bozorg]

Second attempt for link - http://www.rnw.nl/english/article/iran-has-plane-ready-take-leader-safety

[Arshama]

Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi condemns the "rioters" from Ashura, infiltrated by "foreign elements", supposes a peaceful settlement of actual conflicts and asks the government to be more careful in its acting in order to prevent actions from domestic and foreign dissidents: http://www.rahesabz.net/story/6612/
Rotten mullah!

[Ali]

Why have you left out news of the hundreds of thousands who demonstrated today for the government?

Surely by ignoring this you are acting like the people you are against?

i saw the footage on Iranian TV and the crowds were huge, and very much today because they were referring to the 'riots on Ashura'.

[Ali]

The link for video on todays demo's so everyone can see for themselves:

http://english.iribnews.ir/incamera.aspx?camid=318