The Latest on Iran (29 December): A Desperate Swing of the Fist
Tuesday, December 29, 2009 at 18:23 
1930 GMT: Kill Them. Abbas Vaez-Tabasi, a member of the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts has declared on state television, "Those who are behind the current sedition in the country ... are mohareb (enemies of God) and the law is very clear about punishment of a mohareb [execution]."Today's Show of Support for the Regime? If you believe Peyke Iran, it wasn't much. The website reports that residents in Rasht ridiculed a demonstration of 300 plainclothes Basijis chanting slogans for the execution of reformists like Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi.
1850 GMT: Javan Farda reports that Shiraz University was closed today.
1845 GMT: The Arrests Move Higher. Government forces have arrested Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief aide Alireza Beheshti. Beheshti, the son of one of Iran's most commemorated martyrs, Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti, was also detained briefly in September when the regime tried to disrupt preparations for Qods Day demonstrations.
NEW Latest Iran Video: Today’s University Protest (29 December)
NEW Iran: A List of the Ashura Detainees
NEW Iran: The Regime's Fightback?
Latest Iran Video: Obama Condemns “Violent & Unjust Suppression” (28 December)
Iran: Ashura’s Message “Iranians Are Not Punching Bags” (Josh Shahryar)
Iran: A Point of No Return?
The Latest from Iran (28 December): The Regime’s Arresting Strategy
1830 GMT: The Karroubi Family Speaks Out (Cont.): Mehdi Karroubi's son Taghi has added to the criticisms by Karroubi's wife and son Hossein of regime restrictions on his father. He said that Government-provided security has stopped protecting Karroubi when he leaves the house. This is effectively a ''quasi-house arrest'.'
Karroubi's car was attacked on Saturday by assailants.
1815 GMT: Attacks on the Clerics. Ayatollah Sane'i now appears to be a primary target of the regime: assaults on his offices by plainclothes men have been reported in Tehran, Mashhad, Kerman, Sari, Gorgan, and Shiraz.
Attacks in Shiraz on the Qoba Mosque and the residence of Ayatollah Dastghaib have also been reported.
1730 GMT: "Western" Media and the Green Movement. A reporter from The Times of London has asked us to clarify our opening update (0710 GMT). While we mentioned the newspaper as part of "a chorus of affirmation that this opposition is on the point of victory", he/she wants to make clear that it should not be included in our preceding reference that "most of [the Western media] had written off the opposition only a month ago".
1720 GMT: The Elm-o-Sanat Protest. We've posted three clips from today's demonstration at Elm-o-Sanat University in Tehran. Gooya reports that more than 10 students were injured in clashes with security forces.
1650 GMT: Mahmoud Speaks. President Ahmadinejad has surfaced to comment on the Ashura protests: "The Iranian nation has seen a lot of such masquerades. A Zionist (Israeli), and American ordered [nauseating] masquerade."
1645 GMT: The Karroubi Family Protests. Back from a break to find that the family of Mehdi Karroubi striking out at Government restrictions. Karroubi's son Hossein has announced that his father is “partially imprisoned” because security personnel refuse to cooperate with him. Karroubi's wife Fatemeh writes that her family has been threatened by “nightly attacks of arbitrary forces” She says that she will hold the government responsible for any incident that may affect members of her family.
1225 GMT: Reading Iran from the US. We've just posted the analysis of Karim Sadjadpour and Trita Parsi of the Ashura protests on the Public Broadcasting Service.
1224 GMT: Reports that journalist Nasrin Vaziri, who works for ILNA and Khabar Online, has been arrested.
1214 GMT: Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi said that seven people were killed in Ashura clashes (which is kind of strange, since the official line on Monday was that 10 "terrorists" had been slain).
1210 GMT: Here Come the Guards. The Revolutionary Guard jump into the regime's fightback against the Ashura protests: "The...foreign media...has staged a psychological war. Trying to overthrow the system will reach nowhere...designers of the unrest will soon pay the cost of their insolence...The opposition, which has joined hands with the foreign media, is backed by foreign enemies."
1205 GMT: Only a matter of time before this "analysis" was attempted --- the editor of Kayhan, Hossein Shariatmardari, has accused Mir Hossein Mousavi of planning the assassination of his nephew.
1155 GMT: Report coming in that Reza Tajik, journalist and religious activist, was arrested today in front of the Etemaad newspaper Building. Photojournaist Sam Mahmoudi has also reportedly been arrested.
Another activist reports that Dr. Housein Mousavian, a member of the National Front, has been arrested.
1120 GMT: Did Trees Have to Die for This? A Mr Will Heaven seeks his 15 seconds of attention with this blotting of the pages of The Daily Telegraph, "Iran and Twitter". I have more important things to do, such as using Twitter as a portal to keep up with and report on the latest developments inside Iran, so let me respond Tweet-style:
@WillHeaven: U know nothing of #Twitter, #IranElection, or #Iran (& u rip off #Salon, who tried this shtick last week)
1115 GMT: We have posted a list of Ashura detainees, compiled by Tehran Bureau's Muhammad Sahimi last night before the latest reports of arrests.
1040 GMT: Arrest Them All. The latest detainees include journalist Mohammad Javad Saberi and Shahpour Kazemi, the brother of Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard. Kazemi was detained for months earlier in the crisis before his release in the autumn.
Journalists Badrosadat Mofidi, Nasrin Vaziri, and Keyvan Mehregan have also been detained.
1020 GMT: Ali Larijani --- No Compromise. Speaker of Parliament Larijani, commenting on the Ashura protests, has told lawmakers that officials should "arrest offenders of the religion and mete out harshest punishments to such anti-revolutionary figures with no mercy".
The rhetoric isn't significant: it matches that coming from pro-regime media and "hard-line" MPs (see 0850 GMT). The political symbolism is: Larijani --- who has clashed with President Ahmadinejad throughout this crisis and was reportedly involved in the discussion of a National Unity Plan ---is now declaring that confrontation takes priority over any attempt at a negotiated resolution.
And he is doing so even as the Supreme Leader (is Larijani serving here as a spokesman for Khamenei?) and Ahmadinejad remain publicly silent.
0850 GMT: "Cut Off Their Hands". Scattered hard-line noises out of Iran's Parliament. Mohammad Karamirad, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said that the committee will hold a special meeting on Wednesday to discuss the Ashura protests. Security officials from the Interior Ministry, the Intelligence Ministry, and the police will be invited.
Don't be fooled that this is an impartial enquiry into the demonstrations, however. Karamirad declared, "Rioters who took to streets are challenging the very foundations of the ruling system....They insult Islamic beliefs, and it is our duty to cut off the hands behind such seditious acts and bring an end to the events that endanger the safety and security of the people." He also called on Iran's judiciary to prosecute the leaders of the protests.
Hossein Sobhaninia, another member of the committee, joined that call. He said that events, in which the sanctities of Islam were disrespected and government officials were insulted, would not end if the judiciary did not deal with the seditious acts.
750 GMT: Which Way Forward? Following up on our snap 5-point analysis of the significance of the Ashura protests, an EA reader directs us to the thoughts of Ebrahim Nabavi in Rah-e-Sabz. Nabavi searches for a positive outcome to the conflict, advising the opposition to leave enough space for the regime to prevent a fierce confrontation.
0710 GMT: We begin this morning with a summary and analysis of the Government's attempt to restore some credibility through the rather crude tactic of arresting lots of people it does not like or trust. One of the latest names to emerge is Nushin Ebadi, the sister of the Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi.
Meanwhile, it is stunning how the Western media --- most of whom had written off the opposition only a month ago --- are now a chorus of affirmation that this opposition is on the point of victory. The Times of London proclaims "the tipping point of revolution". Abbas Milani in The Wall Street Journal announces "The Tipping Point in Iran". (Note to EA readers: if we ever use "tipping point" in an analysis, pull us aside for a journalistic flogging for the crime Resorting to Overused Cliche.) The Washington Post has the variant of "Iran's Turning Point". The New York Times offers support through an editorial denouncing "Iran's War on Its People".
Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, Abbas Milani, Ali Larijani, Alireza Beheshti, Ashura, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti, Badrosadat Mofidi, Basiji, Daily Telegraph, Ebrahim Nabavi, Elm-o-Sanat University, Etemaad, Fatemeh Karroubi, Hossein Karroubi, Hossein Shariatmadari, Hossein Sobhaninia, Housein Mousavian, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Kayhan, Keyvan Mehregan, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Javad Saberi, Mohammad Karamirad, Mohammad Khatami, Nasrin Vaziri, New York Times, Peyke Iran, Rah-e-Sabz, Reza Tajik, Salon, Sam Mahmoudi, Shahpour Kazemi, The Times of London, Twitter, Wall Street Journal, Will Heaven, Zahra Rahnavard in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (75)
Jaras quotes IRNA that 37 persons were killed thoughout Iran on Ashura:
http://www.rahesabz.net/story/irna2/
Mehdi Qolizadeh, member of Freedom Movement (Nehzat-e Azadi) was arrested on Ashura: http://www.rahesabz.net/story/6678/
Hail to thee Islamic Republic, which kills and arrests its citizens on this holy day!
From AP wire: A new intelligence report is raising concern about Iran's nuclear activities. A copy of the report obtained by The Associated Press says Iran is close to clinching a deal to secretly import tons of purified uranium ore from Kazakhstan, in defiance of the U.N. Security Council. Iran needs the material to feed its uranium enrichment program.
------
So does this mean that a now desperate regime is on the fast track to building a bomb? I used to have doubts about the intent of Iran's nuclear activities, but after the post-election unrelenting display of lack of concern for its own citizens, it is apparent that this regime cares little for any rule of law or human life and is pursuing nuclear weapons.
Anony Mouse, here is the news from MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34622227/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/
Iran is close to clinching a deal to clandestinely import 1,350 tons of purified uranium ore from Kazakhstan...
Ali,
Despite the poor showing on Basij day and the recent underwhelming protest in support of Khomeini, I believe the regime still has resources to mobilize masses for their street theater- many through inducements, others out of genuine loyalty and support.
Even if the footage is wholly authentic - I have my doubts, some of the footage seems spliced from past gatherings - these people attend without fear of violence.
If the opposition was permitted to rally unmolested, they would outnumber gov supporters tenfold.
Ali,
Don't you wonder how long it took for some poor soul to blur out all the foliage on almost every tree in that video footage from "today".
Sheese!
Eyewonder
HAHAHAHAHA!!
And they didn't do a very good job of it either - I am surprised at how nice the trees look in Tehran in December.
Barry
heh...and I thought it was just 'cause I had a crappy internet connection
Re the 1930 post
I would not be at all surprised if mass killings are undertaken - ALA 1988
A Regime supporter (you all know who) has already hinted of this in another thread. I would quote him - except I can't figure out how to search for postings made by an individual poster.
Barry
Hmmm - I have just found the statement - and it appears that it has been edited - as the threat to "deal with" has been removed.
Barry
Eyewonder
Seriously? Did you listen to what the crowds were chanting? (just in case you don't speak Persian they were saying 'we will stand by our leader against those who defiled Ashura' amongst other things which definitely dated the videos to Monday or today.
I don't think we should minimise the support the Iranian government has by simply ignoring videos like that, and my concern is why aren't we being shown the true picture from all sides?
Ali,
Some of the footage was undoubtedly real b/c the slogans were topical.
However, a lot of it was visually suspect and many of the slogans on the long shots were general ones typical of any Ashura/Regime-themed rally.
If protests really were as big as the footage would have us believe, wouldn't you expect more prominent front-page coverage in today's Iranian dailies?
Check it out - http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=11478
I think Photoshop manuals enjoy prominent space next to Qurans in IRIB editing suites.
Again, I think the govt can mobilize large numbers of people, and it might succeed tomorrow. But skepticism is in order when it comes to the propaganda organs of the state.
Arshama 17.03
I didn`t expect that anybody speaks German on this page - by the way - from the homepage of the student Information center you can get some translated news from German newspapers.
http://germantoenglish.wordpress.com/2009/12/29/berlin-says-it-will-support-irans-opposition/
Since the death of Montazeri the amount of Information/Articles about Iran has increased totally. A shock for the German spectators was "Tagesthemen"- News/TV - yesterday - a report of a member of basidsch who fled to England. This publication explains the strong reactions of some german politicians today. (30.12.2009)
http://www.tagesthemen.de/ausland/
Ali clearly likes to hit the opium pipe with the Khamenie and Larjani's.
The crowds were huge??!,
Familiarize yourself with Bob Marley
"You can fool some people sometimes, but you can't fool all the people all the time"
No one believes anything this murderous regime says.
These photos say it all the village idiots.....
http://www.payvand.com/news/09/dec/1290.html
Well, well, well what a surprise pro Govt demostrations are always photoshopped, the numbers are always insignificant and those who take part are simply poor souls who have been paid off.
The same claims were made over and over about pro-AN rallies during the campaign. The same idiotic charges were made against the Pro-Iranian Hezbollah after the murder of Hariri in Lebanon 5 years ago. The pro-Hariri demostrations were always in the "millions" but the Hezbollah ones were always made up of coerced Shiites or people who had been bribed to attend.
Let's face it 37 million Iranians could be on the streets chanting in favor of the SL and it would all be explained away as some Fars or PressTV hoax. Enjoy your little games greenies, I see even Larijani is losing patience.
Alright Samuel, please do explain why is it the protests have failed to stop more than 6 months later, even when the govt has pulled no punches to crackdown? The 1999 protests didn't last this long. Heck, no protests in Iran lasted as long as the Green movement- other than the 1979 Revolution and Constitutional Revolution.
And why we say the pro-govt demos were photoshopped, perhaps because they have a track record of doing so. The govt's Friday Prayers rally, we know, was pitifully attended despite planning and mobilization (their state-run news didn't report much on it).
Iranians have always wanted reform. There's the reason why Khatami won in a giant landslide in 1997 and remains popular till today- plus that election had a high turnout- as did the 2009 one. In contrast, the 2004 one had low turnout (boycotts by reformists), and even Ahmadinejad did not win in the first round.
"Even Larijani is losing patience"- I don't quite get what you mean. Larijani is a conservative, hardly a reformist even if he's not as hardline as Ahmadinejad.
SL STATES REFORM MOVEMENT ARE ENEMIES OF GOD:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/now-iran-turns-its-fury-on-britain-1852807.html
REMINDS THEM OF THE PUNISHEMENT FOR IT.
MOUSSAVI FUNERAL IS HAPPENING NOW
Samuel,
So what they got some goons to bus in and finally had footage to air. Notice how they had to prompt them with blow horns and speakers to say what the regime wanted--notice how all the signs are standardized--don't see the reform movement doing that now do we. What about all the other pro government rallies especially the one a few days ago. Why did the IRIB not air any footage? Answer because very few showed up. Why did the IRIB never air footage of mass reform rallies such as Montazeri's funeral? Gee lets see--wow it would show the truth that millions are against the regime and wouldn't want the truth to come out.
So why is this all happening--it is because the regime has lost its religion. They are drunk on power and think they can abrogate anything in the Shia faith to keep the system afloat. For some perspective read my post to you at:
http://enduringamerica.com/2009/12/27/iran-a-5-minute-5-point-reaction-to-the-events-of-ashura/comment-page-1/#comment-18765 (I made an error but corrected in my very next post.)
I sincerely want you to reflect on it. You have to ask yourself why a regime who bases itself on religon can so easily trample that very religion to stay in power?
Thx
Bill
Michelle,
"even when the govt has pulled no punches to crackdown?" That's laughable, how many died from June until Ashura? The govt has been pulling plenty of punches and kicks too. But things have changed since you now have an MKO infused Green movement.
It has been my experience that there is more truth in the statements of children caught stealing candy than in green rumours but there may be some truth in the speculation about bombs being set off. The MKO is nothing if not expert in bombings and assassinations as its history well shows. And no the govt should not pull any punches against the MKO fortified green activists.
"Iranians have always wanted reform. There’s the reason why Khatami won in a giant landslide in 1997 and remains popular till today..."
Depends what you mean by reform. Who was the SL when Khatami won those victories and allowed him to take power? How come those elections were not "stolen"?
Comes the answer: Because the SL and others were willing to allow "reform" as long as it did not attempt to overthrow the Revolution.
Larijani is a conservative but a quiet one not given to outbursts and one who has opposed AN. The fact that he has come out so strongly is an indication that he has lost patience with the MKO/green radicals. Of course it also means he wants to be president and wants his brother as a future candidate for Supreme Leader.
Bill,
My response to your post.
"The loss of “Islam”: You have mentioned this point many times regarding the seperation of state/religion and nationalism mindsetsd present within the Green movement. I happen to agree with you but disagree on how prevalent it is. What I find is striking is your lack of critique when it comes to the regime’s loss of “Islam.” As I have stated many times the regime has demonstrated time and time again they have lost the essence of Islam enshrined within the consititution. I would have to think even Khomeini would not have approved of lethal force during Ashura of all times. The regime’s actions during Ashura, Shia Islam’s most holy time, showed a clear disregard to the sanctity of peace and no blood shed. How can the regime justify itself knowing it violated Ashura in the worst way by killing? Even their own officers on several occasions refused to shoot and that in it self is a huge strike against them.
In summary you need to ask yourself which side has trully lost their “Islam.” In my mind it is the regime who lost their Islam. The slide of the state into domination by the IRGC, the clear support by the majority of the clerical establishement for the Green movement, and the regimes propensity to use force so easily clearly makes a case which side Islam is on. In all sincerity you need to look into this further and ponder this."
The Ayatollah Khomeini made it very clear that to defend the revolution it was even permissible to suspend Sharia temporarily. It is horrible that individuals were killed on Ashura. As you commented accurately I am against the use of deadly force if not necessary and I criticize the lack of govt. preparation in the use of non-lethal alternatives when dealing with riots. A nation that produces advanced missiles has to be able to develop something more effective than the tear gas it currently uses which is a joke.
At the same time this is a war or at least it is becoming a war and it is not because of the events in June. I hate to repeat myself but Khamenei has allowed reform--Khatami won twice, Karroubi was Speaker and the SL accepted it. He was not happy about it but he accepted it.
This is not about the govt losing Islam or violating the constitution it is about a war to preserve the institutions of the revolution. Note again that Khomeini said that if the Islamic State were threatened he would not sit back and remain passive, he would cut off the hands of those threatening it. Violence, unfortunately, is necessary even against fellow muslims as when the Usulis displaced the Akhbaris relying in part on the efforts of the Mirghadabs the precursors to the Pasdaran.
Listen to Larijani and what he is now saying. This man is not a demagogue, he is not an Ahmadinejad with his crazy Holocaust theories and petty feuds.
Finally this struggle is more than just about Iran (the Iranian secular nationalistic/chauvinists will love this), it is in some ways about the larger Shiite community and its survival. Even as we speak Shiites are being massacred in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Yemen. In Iraq and Lebanon they also remain under constant threat. Iran under the Revolution has RIGHTLY become a protector and ally of these brother communities and it is as much as anything a relgious duty.
Listen to the other side with their calls for abandoning Hezbollah and implicitly any other non-Persian community. The greenies might as well apply to Netanyahu for Zionist medals since this is exactly what the Israelis want, a non revolutionary, pro-western ally who will allow them hegemony over the whole region. An updated version of the Shah in other words.
Bill,
The article you linked to has a factual error:
"Mohammadreza Naqdi, the head of the Basiji militia who led the bloody post-election crackdown, has already been openly vowing retribution against "traitors"."
Taeb was the head of the Basij during the election period. Naqdi only became the head of the Basij about two months ago.
Bill,
This should read:
"Violence, unfortunately, is SOMETIMES necessary even against fellow muslims as when the Usulis displaced the Akhbaris relying in part on the efforts of the Mirghadabs the precursors to the Pasdaran."
Ali,
Thank you. This is now mentioned in our updates and our special analysis for 30 December.
S.
For those who are looking to know how big the protests were, here is a nice picture of the square in question and how many protesters there was out there today in the Government protest.
For a million man, you need to have at least the whole length of Azadi and Engelab covered plus more. We had 30 K max, which is what we had in Basiji and plain clothes tugs too on Ashura. So we can say at any given day the government can muscle 30 K people in Tehran.
See photo
http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=11518
Gunni 2.53
Doch, doch, there are even more German-speaking commentators on EA :-)
On Monday I was amazed to see the same photo of Ashura clashes in the headlines of nearly all important German newspapers, and yesterday the Frankfurter Neue Presse's headline read "Iran kills its citizens". I presume ongoing protests have convinced German politicians that a majority of Iranians wants another regime, and they are shocked by the brutal oppression of mainly peaceful protesters. Chancellor Angela Merkel, who opposed the East German dictatorship, is especially susceptive for such peaceful uprisings.
Samuel,
Thank you for your response. I do undertand the regime's position and I am aware of what Imam khomeini stated. He even has scripture to back him up on this. However, it must be noted he often said one thing and did another. An example is how he used the left to come to power then once in power he purged them. It is also noteworthy how before the revolution he espoused a seperation of churck and state yet when in power the exact opposite happened("Personal desire, age, and my health do not allow me to personally have a role in running the country after the fall of the current system.) He even said "In the Islamic government all people have complete freedom to have any kind of opinion."
While I understand your point my contention is how much is to much. If all the power is the with the SL the people are literally at the mercy of that person's whims. Who then is able to act as a counter balance against this centralization of power. The answer in Iran is no one trully has the power to check the SL. That is central to the problem. This ones person's view on religion thus by mandate must be that of the people. What then if he is wrong? What if he is violating Sharia but he thinks he is not? By default the only "right" religion is this person's not the Quran or Sharia. Is their not supposed to be no compulsion in relgion? This all basically says for the regime faith revolves around the "system" not the religion! The system is broke but one guy thinks not thus Iran is caught in a trick box of it's own making.
Thx
Bill