US Politics Analysis: Why Romney's Statement on Libya and Egypt is a Political Failure

Mitt Romney's follow-up statement on Wednesday morning on the attacks in Libya and American deaths

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The story of what happened in Libya is just beginning, but viewed through the prism of the domestic presidential campaign, Romney's haste to use the ongoing events in Libya as a political weapon appears to be a major error --- one that suggests he does not have the temperament to lead the nation through a foreign policy crisis –-- not so much because of what he said, but when and why he said it.

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US Politics Analysis: Why Obama Has to Get Specific and Get Positive at the Convention

Obama has been considered defensive about his achievements during his first term and has appeared too eager to criticise opponents instead of casting positive light on those four years.

President Obama has the chance to redress that in his speech Thursday. If he does not and adopts a negative tone, one can see Mitt Romney --- who is doing a substantial amount of debate preparation this week --- deliver his own Reagan-esque "here we go again" in October.

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US Politics Analysis: Romney's Team to Republican Convention --- Please, No Fiery Speeches

Mitt Romney speaking on Saturday in Ohio

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Despite the roster of renowned conservative politicians scheduled to speak at the convention, Romney's campaign will aim to present a bland espousal of generic conservative ideas with as little of the controversial and substantial as possible. We will witness a rally for vague concepts like "limited government" and 'individual freedom' designed to present a unified –-- and non-threatening --- Republican face to the rest of the nation.

But the Republican Convention is still important in that it gives Romney one last chance, before the critical television debates with President Obama, to project some personality into his campaign. In his acceptance speech Mitt needs to show that he can empathise with everyday Americans, those who do not employ tax accountants or make small bets of $10,000.

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US Politics Analysis: Why Paul Ryan's VP Nomination is So Important

Paul Ryan's speech after he was named as Mitt Romney's Vice Presidential running mate

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Last Saturday, Mitt Romney announced that Paul Ryan, a congressman from Wisconsin, would be his running mate for the 2012 Presidential election. Rep. Ryan, Chair of the House Budget Committee, is a committed fiscal conservative. As he is a darling of the Tea Party and the personification of all that is evil in Republican politics for progressives, Romney's choice has energised a campaign that was in danger of descending into a mundane commentary on the current economic health of the US. 

With his pick, Romney has extended the issues at stake for voters who are concerned with the present unemployment rate or the threat of another recession to the future of the Federal Government's role in economic and social policy.  This is now the election for which conservatives have been praying for decades: a referendum on their belief in a Constitutionally-limited government, allowing individuals to exercise their God-given rights without interference from the hands of the State.

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US Politics Analysis: Despite the Economy, Obama Gains Over "Elitist" Romney

Last Friday, the latest unemployment figures revealed that, despite a better-than-expected increase in the number of people starting a new job, the rate rose slightly to 8.3%. Historically, that is bad news for President Obama: no president other than Franklin D. Roosevelt has won an election when unemployment is above 8%. With only thre months left in this campaign, it is highly unlikely to see a fall below that benchmark.

But, despite this, it was a week of good news for Obama's chances  of re-election, as a number of polls showed a slowly-increasing lead in three  battleground states. The numbers from Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio have allowed Obama's campaign to begin speculation that their candidate's support is “trending” in an upward direction. The strategists who decide the content and tone of Obama's re-election message will be delighted that their emphasis on economic fairness appears to be working.

And while these polls will be long forgotten come November, this week also saw a refrain against Mitt Romney gain considerable traction.

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US Politics Feature: Amid Campaign Errors, A Virtual Tie for the White House

The image of Mitt Romney, as a man fit for the demanding role of US President, has been seriously buffeted over the last few weeks. His reluctance to release more than two years of his income tax records, followed by the reaction in some circles to his criticism of the London Olympics, have seen a widespread questioning of the competency of his campaign.

But, with 100 days to go before the election, the big news is that --- despite these errors  ---- Mitt Romney is still running in a virtual tie with President Obama for the White House. Obama has also made mistakes, notably ill-worded reminder to successful business owners 'that you did not build it on your own", and polls indicate that voters are sticking with their preferred candidate.

So the impact of these errors on both sides may not become fully apparent until the two meet face-to- face in the Presidential debates.

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US Analysis: Why The Tax Returns May Sink the Romney Campaign

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Sadly for Mitt Romney, any valid reasons for not releasing his tax records have now been overwhelmed by the perception of his campaign's inept response. In the business world where he made his fortune, his insistence on the privacy of confidential documents might be a virtue, but in an election for the President of the United States, it has become the vice that may sink him. Even if he does release the records, and even if there is nothing shocking in them, the perception will remain that he has a different idea of the American Dream that he wishes to protect than most of the people he hopes to represent.

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US Politics Feature: Why Romney's Tax Returns Could Decide an Election

Vice President Joe Biden, in a speech on Tuesday, calls on Republican Presidential candidate to release his tax returns

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What Democrats are looking for is an issue for Obama to embarrass Romney in October debates.

The Obama team will have watched over and over again Romney's performance in the Republican primary encounters, and they must have noticed his discomfort and indecision when Gingrich went after him over the tax returns. Romney was visibly on the defensive when Gingrich goaded him, and his response of publishing only one year's accounts has allowed Democrats to picture a similar scene in October.

Some commentators might regard this interest in Romney's tax returns as irrelevant or misguided, compared to important matters like the economy. But what both campaigns need is a surprise wedge issue. The longer Mitt Romney allows the perception to fester that he is hiding something about his wealth, the greater the chance that he will hand the Democrats the "buzz" they need to prevail on Election Day.

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US Politics Analysis: How Chief Justice Roberts Saved ObamaCare...and Gave the President an Election Problem

Chief Justice John Roberts' opinion has rewritten the dynamics of the upcoming Presidential election. With Obamacare being declared constitutional as a tax, the face-value victory for the Administration may well cost Obama the White House in November.

The law was already unpopular with many Americans who saw it as an unconstitutional infringement on their rights. A majority of the Court agreed with them, but the salvation of the Affordable Care Act is that it is a Federal tax.

So after the dozens of pages of legal opinion, a one-sentence question: can you imagine the political advantage Mitt Romney and Republicans will try to take from the President being forced to defend that new tax scheme?

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US Politics Feature: A Lesson for Romney --- Why Nevada and Colorado Decide This November's Election

Mitt Romney in Craig, ColoradoThe focus now and for the next five months is gaining the 270 members of the Electoral College required to win the presidential election. Texan voters select 38 of those voters, while Nevada and Colorado choose just six and nine respectively. But in the contest to be the next President, it is Nevada and Colorado --- and even New Hampshire with just four electoral votes --- are more important logistically than Texas in deciding who will win the White House in 2012.

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