US Politics Feature: Can Mitt Romney "Seal the Deal" in Illinois for the Nomination?

Today, voters in Illinois get their chance to determine who will win the Republican nomination for the US Presidency.

For the last week, following Rick Santorum's victories in Alabama and Mississippi, a close race has been predicted between him and Mitt Romney, a verdict with which several polls agreed, as the former Pennsylvania Senator began to eat in Romney's large lead in Illinois. That narrative has been called into question, however, by a poll on Monday which gave the front-runner a commanding edge of 45-30 over Santorum. That poll could be wrong, of course, but it does raise the possibility that Romney at last might finally seal the deal for his nomination.

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US Politics Analysis: How Rick Santorum Can Defeat Mitt Romney

Rick Santorum's campaign ad attacking Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich for supporting "Obamacare"

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Rick Santorum's biggest advantage over Mitt Romney in these next months will be his concentrated attack on the "Big Government" philosophy behind President Obama's economic policies, exemplified in the health care proposals. Santorum can rally Republicans behind the banner of individual freedom in a way that Romney cannot. If this election year is all about the economy, Santorum is beginning to articulate a positive vision of personal economic liberty that transcends the numbers of high unemployment and low growth.

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US Super Tuesday Preview: Can Mitt Romney Seal the Deal for the Republican Nomination?

Mitt Romney Campaigning in OhioToday, voters in 10 states cast their ballot in the next battle among Republicans to face President Obama in November. nomination contest. At stake are approximately 450 delegates, or roughly 20% of the total, to the National Convention in August, . It is a significant number, hence the tag "Super Tuesday", but at the end of today, barring an extraordinary performance from Mitt Romney, the GOP's choice is still unlikely to have been decided.

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US Elections Analysis: Romney's GOP Challengers Look for a Brokered Convention

Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick SantorumNewt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul will not admit it, as anything hinting at a defeatist attitude is a death-knell in American politics, but they hope to force a brokered convention. In that scenario, if Romney does not get the 50% of delegates he requires on the first ballot, the State delegates who were pledged to him can switch their support to another candidate.

Some "back of a napkin" mental arithmetic illustrates this reasoning.

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Global Elites Analysis: Fretting About Dystopia at Davos

while American politics may tend to descend into petty bickering and gridlock, can it really offer some hope that US democracy --- and the confrontational political culture in which it thrives --- may find what the World Economic Forum calls a “viable alternative” to a dystopian near-future?

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US Elections Analysis: Assessing Gingrich and Romney in the Florida Primary

Only 120 miles of interstate highway I-95, cutting through Newt Gingrich's home state of Georgia, separate South Carolina and Florida, but those 120 miles could be vital in the ex-Speaker's crusade to be the next President of the United States.

The emphasis is on "could".  After Gingrich's stunning victory in Saturday's vote in South Carolina, and with eight days before the primary in Florida, no one can claim with any authority to know what is going to take place in the Sunshine State --- or the consequences of the outcome. 

Consider one piece of political wisdom widely cited after Gingrich's weekend triumph. Florida has an electoral system that allows easy access to early voting, and even before the South Carolina contest was resolved, around 30% of Floridians are estimated to have cast an absentee ballot. That would seem to favour Mitt Romney, as he held a healthy lead in Florida polls for some time, and his campaign machine has been encouraging his supporters to use the early voting option.

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US Elections Analysis: Can Romney Wrap Up Nomination with South Carolina Win?

Romney is riding high after his victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. A win in South Carolina, who have elected the eventual nominee in every Republican primary since they were introduced in 1980, would further bolster his claim to be the only "electable" candidate in a contest against President Obama. But that victory is by no means a foregone conclusion.

And a loss would be disastrous for Romney. Not because he lost one state, but because whoever beat him goes into Florida as the sole conservative alternative to Romney. That is not a game which Romney wants to play.

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US Elections Opinion: Taking Apart Rick Santorum and "Compassionate Conservatism"

Rick Santorum (Adam Hunger, Reuters)Whether Rick Santorum and his supporters acknowledge it or not, their ideology is authoritarian, just not as dictatorial as the Hobbesian model. A child tax credit is a perfectly defensible proposition --- and Santorum would triple it --- but at heart it is the taking of property from some people to give to other people in the name of morality and the common good.

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US Politics Feature: Ron Paul, the Youth Vote, and the Legalisation of Marijuana

Before and after the Iowa caucuses, one of the curious stories to emerge was the extraordinary support 76-year-old Paul was garnering among the youth of that state. Most of the commentary credited it to his followers in the anti-war brigade and associated it with the growing disillusionment with America's conflicts abroad.

A natural conclusion; and with some merit. But that alone does not explain why he appealed, according to CIRCLE (the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement) to 48% of voters under the age of 30.

One possibility is that many young Paul supporters are not voting for him, first and foremost, because of his views on foreign policy. Instead, they are considering their personal lifestyles and deciding that Paul, with his calls for the legalisation of marijuana, is the candidate who best represents their interests.

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US Elections Special: Barney Frank's Retirement, Redistricting, and a Damaged Congress

On Monday, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Massachusetts) announced he would not be re-seeking election in 2012. The decision from one of the more colourful members of Congress has met varying degrees of personal reaction from Washington insiders --- an interview on MSNBC explains some of the more acerbic appraisals of his character --- but on a practical level, it has highlighted two issues that have gone largely unnoticed.

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