US Elections Analysis: One Week to Go --- Why "Moderate Mitt" and Crucial Ohio Point to a Cliff-Hanger

Mitt Romney and his running mate Paul Ryan in Celina, Ohio on Sunday

---

Why are we witnessing the emergence of a "moderate Mitt" so late in the campaign?

The answer lies in his demeanour on the stage in Florida in the third Presidential debate. Mitt Romney was a man who is truly convinced that he is winning this election, avoiding any potential controversy that would detract from the message that put him in the role of frontrunner.

Click to read more ...

US Elections Analysis: A Foreign Policy Debate Which Will Not Mean That Much

See also EA Video Special: How to Win Presidential Debate Buzzword Bingo....
US Elections Analysis: The "Fiscal Cliff" and the Races for the New Congress

---

There is little that either candidate can say tonight which will sway the opinion of the wavering voters who will decide this election. Neither Obama or Romney has a foreign policy of details and concrete proposals that is distinctive. If there is the perception that each would act differently in the event of a major crisis, but that impression is already factored into the calculations of the "undecided".

The debate is not irrelevant, especially if Romney loses some of the “Presidential” aura he won in Denver. But the reality is that, if the Republican simply gives the appearance of a resolute leader, this election returns on Tuesday morning to a two-week battle to persuade the cluster of undecided voters, in a few key states, to make up their minds based on the economic and social agenda of the "better" candidate.

Click to read more ...

US Elections Analysis: The "Fiscal Cliff" and the Races for the New Congress

A Democratic ad criticises Minnesota Republican Chip Cravaack for his opposition to President Obama's health care plan

See also US Elections Video: Obama or Romney? And Does It Make Any Difference? --- "Seminar" at the University of Birmingham

---

The first two debates between President Obama and Mitt Romney have been political theatre at its most dramatic –-- whether a comedy or a tragedy depends on the audience you ask --- but their dominance of the headline has obscured an answer to the most important question of this election year.

Will the next p#President, whoever he is, be able to work with the newly-elected Congress and find a legislative solution to the problems he will face immediately upon taking office?

The “fiscal cliff”, and America's headlong rush over it, approaches; however, amidst the daily controversies over funding for Big Bird and Mitt Romney's “binders full of women”, neither candidate has addressed how he will work with a partisan Congress to avoid the scheduled tax rises and spending cuts that will not only plunge the American economy into another recession but exacerbate the economic slowdown around the globe.

Click to read more ...

US Politics Special: The "Elite Eight" States That Will Decide The Presidential Election

---

There are only 106 Electoral College votes in eight states that are up for grabs in this election. The importance of each state corresponds to how many votes they award, if only because President Obama --- with his Blue Wall --- needs to win far fewer of these states than Mitt Romney to triumph in the election. It is a harsh fact for Mitt Romney's campaign that if Obama secures the 29 votes of Florida, this Presidential election is all but over.

The Elite Eight:

Florida - 29
Ohio – 18
North Carolina – 15
Virginia – 13
Missouri – 10
Colorado – 9
Nevada – 6
Iowa – 6

Click to read more ...

US Elections Analysis: A "Game-Changer" for Obama or Romney? Assessing the 1st Debate and Good Numbers on Jobs

It has been a strange and unexpected week in the American Presidential election, with twists in the established narratives of the Obama and Romney campaigns.

First, the debate on Wednesday night in Colorado dispelled the Obama team's line that Mitt Romney does not represent all Americans. Whether he does or not is beside the point; Romney's performance –-- aided by the non-performance of the President –-- conveyed concern for the problems faced by everyone, nor just the "makers" rather than the 47% who are the "takers".

Then the job numbers released on Friday, with a drop in the headline unemployment rate from 8.1% to a more palatable 7.8%, spiked the guns of the Romney attack that the economy is just not working under Obama.

Are either of these a game-changer? With just over four weeks to go in this campaign probably not. However, despite the welcome job numbers for the Democrats, Republicans have had much the better week. Last Saturday Obama appeared a near-certainty for re-election; now those who have already placed a bet on the President will be silently sweating about the outcome.

Click to read more ...

US Politics Snap Analysis: Why Mitt Romney "Won" The 1st Debate with President Obama

See also US Elections Video: The 1st Obama-Romney Debate

---

Photo: ReutersMitt Romney appeared more committed and convincing when explaining his solutions to America's economic woes. Those ideas may appear to be nothing more than wishful thinking when the answers are dissected, but the perception Romney gave was that he has a coherent plan to restore US fortunes. The bottom line to take from the debates was that Mitt Romney appeared Presidential; the actual president less so.

Will that be enough to shift the polls in Romney's favour?

Click to read more ...

US Politics Analysis: Romney's Big Opportunity in the 1st Debate with Obama

Polls indicate more voters are "disappointed" with Obama's record in office than "happy", and Americans often pay respect to the rhetoric of a limited government that fosters individual responsibility. If Romney can successfully present his vision on those two issues, without fumbling over his dismissal of 47% of Americans as moochers, he may buttress his claim to be the better choice as the next President of the United States among the undecided.

Click to read more ...

US Elections Analysis: Your Guide to the 3 Biggest "Swing States" and the Challenge for Mitt Romney

President Obama in Virginia Beach, Virginia on Thursday

---

After the electoral votes from these near-certainties, the election comes down to seven or eight "swing states". Of these, three --- Florida, Ohio, and Virginia --- are vital because their larger number of votes in the Electoral College. To win the election, Romney needs to triumph in two of the three. That is why more than half the money spent by both campaigns has been devoted to the trio of battlegrounds.

The cold challenge for the Romney campaign is that the polls put Obama ahead in all three. Florida is close, with President Obama enjoying a narrow 4% advantage, but in both Ohio and Virginia his lead is about 8%.

So why, despite these numbers, are Republicans hopeful that Mitt Romney can still win?

Click to read more ...

US Politics Analysis: Why Obama Has the Edge So Far --- Campaign Finance and the State of the Election

Samuel L. Jackson's pro-Obama "Wake the F*** Up, America"

The latest pro-Romney "attack ad" by the SuperPAC American Crossroads

---

Next Wednesday, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama will meet in the first of three campaign debates.

Opinion varies as to how critical the debates are in persuading undecided voters to support a candidate, but the cold fact is that in this campaign they are the last chance for Romney to turn around Obama's momentum. The President is currently leading by margins, especially in the battleground states, that have him as a 4-1 favourite –-- 80% probability --- to retain the White House.

The reasons for Romney's disappointing performance are many, but one that is not receiving the attention that it deserves is that conservatives have not yet been able --- as many feared after the Supreme Court decision of 2010 --- to swamp the Obama campaign with a series of negative ads drowning out the voice of the Democratic incumbent. There is time for that change, especially if big donors are encouraged by Romney's performance in the first debate to pour in last-minute millions, but money has not yet shifted the fundamentals in this race.

Click to read more ...

US Politics Analysis: How Occupy Wall Street Tilted This Presidential Election Towards Obama

Video streaming by Ustream

Tim Pool describes Monday's protests by Occupy Wall Street on its one-year anniversary

---

What has happened since 2010 that means voters are prepared to re-elect a President whose economic record is so unpopular?

Occupy Wall Street is what happened.

Occupy is not the only reason why Romney's economic narrative has faltered. Indeed, in the larger electoral picture, it is only a small contribution to the GOP's poor campaign, but Occupy did something that observers have failed to appreciate in their rush to dismiss the movement as a fad or failure. The protesters changed the background, even as they failed to build a mass of participation, against which the contending economic visions of Obama and Romney are now framed.

Click to read more ...