Updates from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (19 February)

Latest Post: Is US Now Talking to Hamas?

Evening Update (9 p.m.): Hamas has written a letter to President Obama and attempted to send it to Washington via Senator John Kerry (pictured), one of three US Congressmen visiting Gaza.

The United Nations Relief and Works Agency confirmed that it had received the letter from Hamas but did not say whether Mr Kerry had then accepted it. (cross-posted from Is US Now Talking to Hamas? thread)



Afternoon Update (1:30 p.m. GMT): Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of the Likud Party, has moved closer to becoming Prime Minister, winning the support of the Israel-Beitenu Party, which finished third in last week's election.

Israeli warplanes have launched at least three airstrikes near Rafah.

Senator John Kerry and two US Representatives, Keith Ellison and Brian Baird, have made the first visit by US congressmen to Gaza in four years.

Morning Update (6:20 a.m. GMT; 8:20 a.m. Israel/Palestine): The negotiations between Israel and Hamas, brokered by Egypt, have effectively been suspended with the Israeli Cabinet's confirmation that kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit must be released before any further measures and Hamas' rejection of that precondition. "Reconciliation" talks between Hamas and Fatah are also in abeyance.

That leaves the sideshow announcement from the US State Department that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be attending the Gaza donors' conference in Egypt next month. It is a public-relations move that may quickly be exposed, given Israel's continuing restrictions on any assistance into the area; the real intent may be to slap at Hamas by insisting that all aid must bypass the Gaza authorities.

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7:20 p.m. Desperate Words in a Desperate Position. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas may be pushing hard for a new arrangement with Tel Aviv, but present/former West Bank Prime Minister Salam Fayyad sees no hope:

I do not know of a single Israeli politician from any party who I would expect to offer a reasonable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. All of them want a partial solution, or they aim to improve the face and the conditions of the occupation while the settlements continue.

Actually Abbas, with Israel holding Palestinian Authority aid and payments to Gaza hostage, is sounding desperate as well:

The Palestinian people suffered from the most ruthless and barbaric onslaught for three weeks. We want aid shipments to speedily reach the Palestinian people who are in dire need. So far, the shipments have met just 20 percent of the actual need.

6:30 p.m. It Had to Happen. Egypt is alleging that the $11 million confiscated from Hamas delegates, seized as they returned to Gaza from the Cairo talks, was provided by Tehran. It is "only a small portion of the large amounts of money Iran has funneled to Hamas over the last week".

No evidence was provided for the claim.



1:15 p.m. There are reports, from Hamas sources and witnesses, that Hamas military leader Mahmoud az-Zahar is part of the delegation en route to Egypt. If true, this would point to the possibility of a critical point in the talks; it is the first time that az-Zahar has been seen in public since the Israeli invasion of Gaza and the attempt on his life by Israeli forces.

11:20 a.m. Ali Yenidunya has posted separately on the report of the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem on Israel's human rights violations in Gaza and the West Bank.

10 a.m. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas met Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday and will meet other Turkish officials today. The statements on the talks was anodyne: "The latest efforts to secure unity among Palestinian groups were reviewed thoroughly."

9:30 a.m. We've posted separately on what, in our view, is a deplorable attempt to play down civilian deaths from Israeli fire. Israel did not directly hit a school/shelter; it just hit the civilians killed outside it.

Morning Update (9 a.m. GMT; 11 a.m. Israel/Palestine): We ended last evening on a pessimistic note about any Israel-Gaza settlement but there are a couple of interesting, more optimistic twists this morning.

Some Israeli officials are putting out the confirmation that Hamas is not responsible for the recent firings of rockets into southern Israel; instead, the launches are being carried out by Islamic Jihad, Popular Resistance Committees, and, yes, Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah.

We already reported this. The significance is that Israeli officials will give up the public, inaccurate line blaming Hamas. This opens up some space for continuing discussions.

Which, in turn, points to the report in Israeli media that Hamas officials are returning to Cairo for talks on Sunday. A spokesman told YNet News, "The issues still being debated are fundamental but small, and...the organization would strive to prevent a relapse into fighting."

CNN-Turk also reports that Turkey is holding talks in Damascus with Hamas officials on a prisoner swap releasing the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.

Gaza Effects: Hamas Strengthens Position, Overtakes Fatah in Palestine

So how did Israel's invasion of Gaza reshape the political battle between Hamas and Fatah? Have a look at a revealing poll from the Jerusalem Media and Communication Center.

A random sample of almost 1200 Palestinians, carried out between 29 and 31 January, has Hamas in the lead for the first time against Fatah across Palestine. Almost 29 percent said that, if legislative elections were held today, they would vote for Hamas vs. almost 28 percent for Fatah. Last April, Fatah had 34 percent support, Hamas only 19. Trust in Hamas has risen, albeit from only 17 percent to 28 percent, while trust in Fatah has declined from 31 to 26 percent. Similarly, trust in Hamas leader Ismail Haniya while trust in Fatah/Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas fell.



More than 53 percent of Palestinians on the West Bank and more than 35 percent in Gaza believe Hamas won the war against Israel. The percentage of those who believe rocket attacks help achieve Palestinian goals rose from 39 to 50 percent. Support for military operations and bombings against Israeli civilians also rose.

Those countries and organisations who supported Hamas and criticised Israel during the Gaza war, or those who were seen as helping Gazans, were most favoured by Palestinians. Turkey was seen positively by almost 90 percent, followed by Venuzuela
(80.6%), the International Committee of the Red Cross (79.8%); the United Nations relief agency (78.6%), Qatar (68.3%), Hezbollah (66.9%), the Muslim Brotherhood Movement (57.6%), and Iran (55.9%).

In contrast, Egypt was viewed positively by 35 percent of Palestinians. The United States had a favourable rating of less than 3 percent.

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9:30 p.m. Israeli newspapers reporting that Israeli troops killed a Gazan with a grenade on the border.

8:45 p.m. According to Reuters, the discussions on an Israel-Gaza settlement are foundering on the specifics of control and reopening of crossings. Hamas says Israel is offering re-opening of 75 percent of crossings and full re-opening after the freeing of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, kidnapped in 2006. The offer is vague, however: Israel has not defined the "capacity" of crossings, making the 75 percent hard to measure, it has not specified which goods will be allowed into Gaza, and it has insisted on the right to re-close the crossings for security reasons.

Hamas, for its part, is insisting on the right to vet Palestinian Authority security members put on the crossings and requiring that they come from Gaza.

7:35 p.m. Egypt is definitely striking back at Hamas after the failure, in its view, to put suitable proposals to Israel. Hours after the suspensions of talks on Thursday, members of the Hamas delegation were stopped at the Rafah crossing with between $7 million and $9 million and 2 millions euros ($2.5 million) in cash in their suitcases. The money was confiscated as the delegates continued into Gaza.

Hamas is paying its employees in cash while Israel tries to restrict any movement of currency into Gaza.



7:20 p.m. Keeping Abbas on a String. Israel has agreed to allow $43 million of Palestinian Authority funds, or "tax money collectedl..on behalf of the Palestinian Authority" into Gaza to pay PA employees. The amount, however, is less than that requested by PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, and Israel has offered no response to Fayyad's declaration yesterday of a $600 million reconstruction programme for Gaza.

4:05 p.m. Dumbest Headline of the Day. Reuters reports on this morning's Israeli seizure of a Lebanese ship carrying aid to Gaza (see 11 a.m.): "Israel Seizes Gaza Freighter; No Arms Aboard".

Which, given that this was clearly a ship loaded with medicine, food, and blankets, is kinda missing the point. How about "Israel Seizes Gaza Freighter to Maintain Blockade; Roughs Up Crew"?

3:50 p.m. Ali Yenidunya offers the following analysis of yesterday's Abu Dhabi meeting of foreign ministers from nine Arab countries:

There are two important results from this meeting: Support for Fatah and warning to non-Arab countries in order not to intervene to Arab and Palestinian affairs. After Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s hospitability on Tuesday to the exiled leader of Hamas, Khaled Meshaal, this declaration is aimed at cutting the Shi'a penetration in Palestine by giving support to Fatah.

Although the target of this statement is commonly understood as Ahmadinajed by every media organization, this has gone unnoticed by the Turkish public. Some Turkish media have started asked if this declaration is aimed at Turkey’s increasing influence in the Middle East after Prime Minister Erdogan’s walkout in Davos. In response, ‘Arab betrayal’ discourses are being triggered in Turkey, referring to Arab proclamation of independence during the time of the Ottoman Empire.

11:50 a.m. Take That! Egypt, extracting some retribution for the failure to get a suitable proposal from Hamas for transmission to Israel (or for a suitable Hamas reaction to an Israeli proposal), has shut the border with Gaza to anyone and everyone: "The border is closed as of this morning. No humanitarian, media or medical delegations will be allowed through, nor will medical aid deliveries be permitted."

11 a.m. Details are emerging of the Israeli interception of the Lebanese ship with aid for Gaza, and it's not as straightforward as we reported at 5:50 a.m. An Al Jazeera correspondent on the ship reports five Israeli troops boarded the vessel:

They are pointing guns against us - they are kicking us and beating us. They are threatening our lives.

The owner of the ship says the Israelis destroyed all communications equipment and confiscated phones.

8:45 a.m. Egypt, in its version of the negotiations for an Israel-Gaza settlement, says it will be Saturday before Hamas makes its response to Israeli proposals. Hamas said yesterday that Israel had given an insufficient response to its proposals.

It's close to irrelevant who offered the proposals --- nothing will happen before the Israeli elections next Tuesday and while Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas is making his own maneouvres to represent the Palestinian position. The game right now is simply to claim the diplomatic high ground when and if meaningful negotiations do begin.

Morning Update (5:50 a.m. GMT; 7:50 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Israeli forces have stopped a ship, The Lebanese Fraternity, with 50 tons of aid. The ship was intercepted 20 miles off the coast of Gaza.

Indeed, the one area where international co-operation is succeeding on Gaza is control of arms shipments by sea. The US, Canada,and seven European nations met in Denmark on Wednesday to discuss the issue.

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6 p.m. The Hamas Government in Gaza said on Monday that it paid all employees with US dollars, despite the Israeli blockade.

5:10 p.m. Confirming reports from Egypt, the State Department spokesman has said units from the US Army Corps of Engineers are now in the area to prevent arms smuggling through tunnels into Gaza.

4:55 p.m. There is an alternative explanation for the "mess" of the talks in Paris. The French have signalled in recent weeks that they were ready to treat Hamas as a legitimate participant in the Israel-Palestine process, and Qatar sponsored the Arab "summit", which Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan ignored, that supported Hamas' case in Gaza.

So there is the possibility that France, Qatar, and George Mitchell have agreed, either in consultation with Mahmoud Abbas or overriding his objections, to set up an interlocutor with Hamas. That way the US would not have to risk the domestic turmoil over "recognising" Hamas but could communicate via a third party with the political party.

Then again, I may just be trying to impose coherence where there is none.

3:25 p.m. This is now a diplomatic mess. France 24 confirms that President Nicolas Sarkozy is seeing, in separate meetings, US envoy George Mitchell, Palestinian Authority/Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas, and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani. Who is leading the effort to come up with what deal is now beyond immediate comprehension.



But the real curiosity comes later in the article. Not only has Abbas blown off the Egyptian discussions with Hamas today; he does not intend to go anywhere near that process this week:

Abbas meanwhile will meet with National Assembly speaker Bernard Accoyer on Tuesday and with Kouchner before travelling to Strasbourg to address the European parliament on Wednesday. The president of the Palestinian Authority will travel to Britain, Turkey, Poland and Italy later this week to discuss reconstruction efforts in Gaza following the Israeli offensive.

1:30 p.m. It now appears that talks between Hamas and Fatah, and thus any chance of a unifed cease-fire proposal, have broken down. Hamas official Mohamad Nazal, speaking from Damascus, accused Abbas of siding with Israel in the invasion of Gaza and "seeking to return" on the back of an Israeli tank. Meanwhile, Hamas official Ayman Taha in Cairo said, "Our position is clear. Our demand is the rebuilding or reform of the PLO [Palestinian Liberation Organization], but if the other side insists on not reforming the PLO or rebuilding it, it is our right to look at other options."

All indications are now that Abbas has skipped out on Cairo talks to go to Paris for discussions with US envoy George Mitchell and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. He is effectively trying to rebuild the December 2008 alliance with US and European officials to isolate and possibly topple Hamas. Meanwhile, Hamas will press its case that it is the group seeking both a cease-fire and leadership of the Palestinian people.

11:50 a.m. Since Mahmoud Abbas was supposed to be in Egypt today discussing cease-fire arrangements, this announcement from the Associated Press comes as a surprise:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy was meeting Monday with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and the prime minister of Qatar in an attempt to forge a lasting halt to violence after Israel's recent offensive in the Gaza Strip. President Barack Obama's new Mideast envoy, George Mitchell, was meeting with Sarkozy's chief of staff and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner.

10 a.m. An Israeli airstrike on a car in southern Gaza has killed one person and wounded three.

Morning update (6:40 a.m. GMT; 8:40 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Potentially important day in Cairo, where Hamas and Fatah delegations --- in separate, parallel talks --- are discussing cease-fire proposals with the Egyptians. While Hamas has been positive about an offer of a 12-month cease-fire to Israel, the discussions may founder over the isue of Palestinian "reconciliation". Palestinian Authority/Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas has been focusing on Hamas' rejection of the Palestine Liberation Organization and insisting that, in such a situation, he cannot with Hamas.