The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (3 February)

6 p.m. Line up for the Inter-Arab Showdown. Nine foreign ministers from Arab states, meeting in Abu Dhabi, have put their support behind Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas. No support given that all nine --- Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, Yemen and the Palestinian Authority --- have been on the anti-Hamas side of the fence during the Gaza conflict.

The question now is how Turkey, Syria, Iran and others who gave support to Hamas during the Israeli invasion react.

4 p.m. Repeating a pattern from Sunday, Israel has responded to the rocket fired from Gaza this morning with attacks on the tunnels around Rafah.

3 p.m. Nothing stunning in first reports on US envoy George Mitchell's press conference after his return from the Middle East: he plans to have a "regular and sustained presence in the region" and will return this month. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says she will work with Israelis and Palestinians for a "viable Palestinian state" but added the ritual three conditions, adopted by the US-EU-Russia-UN Quartet, for Hamas participation: "Hamas knows the conditions ... They must renounce violence, they must recognize Israel, they must agree to abide by prior agreements."



1 p.m. Hamas officials continue to hold out the prospect of a cease-fire proposal being put to Israel by Thursday. Gaza Deputy Foreign Minister Ahmed Youssef said last night that, while he had not heard from the Hamas delegation in Cairo, "We are heading toward a right direction, toward a cease-fire."

12:30 p.m. With little happening on the diplomatic front, the most significant development is in Abu Dhabi, where foreign ministers from nine Arab countries are meeting. No news, however, on any outcomes regarding Palestine.

Morning Update (7 a.m. GMT; 9 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Because of the effective division of the diplomatic process yesterday, with part of it going on in Cairo and part moved to Paris, we're in a curious next-to-silence this morning. No news on either discussion has made it into the press, which has contributed to amnesia by failing to recognise the significance of Mahmoud Abbas' diversion from Egypt to France (and his continued European walk-about this week).

Israel will now be occupied with the elections scheduled for 10 February. Hamas will be content to shore up its diplomatic position in the region and its support in Gaza. And (barring our scenario that the Paris talks were considering an "intermediary" to set up a channel between the US Government and Hamas) others in Washington, Europe, and the West Bank are scrambling for a new policy to limit the Hamas threat.

A Grad rocket fired from Gaza landed near Ashkelon in Israel this morning. It was the longest-range rocket launched since the ceasefire on 18 January.

The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (2 February): The Wanderings of Mahmoud Abbas

Latest Post: Today's Ultimate Palestine Solution - Build a Tunnel
Latest Post: Gaza Rockets - It's Fatah, not Hamas, Doing the Firing

6 p.m. The Hamas Government in Gaza said on Monday that it paid all employees with US dollars, despite the Israeli blockade.

5:10 p.m. Confirming reports from Egypt, the State Department spokesman has said units from the US Army Corps of Engineers are now in the area to prevent arms smuggling through tunnels into Gaza.

4:55 p.m. There is an alternative explanation for the "mess" of the talks in Paris. The French have signalled in recent weeks that they were ready to treat Hamas as a legitimate participant in the Israel-Palestine process, and Qatar sponsored the Arab "summit", which Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan ignored, that supported Hamas' case in Gaza.

So there is the possibility that France, Qatar, and George Mitchell have agreed, either in consultation with Mahmoud Abbas or overriding his objections, to set up an interlocutor with Hamas. That way the US would not have to risk the domestic turmoil over "recognising" Hamas but could communicate via a third party with the political party.

Then again, I may just be trying to impose coherence where there is none.

3:25 p.m. This is now a diplomatic mess. France 24 confirms that President Nicolas Sarkozy is seeing, in separate meetings, US envoy George Mitchell, Palestinian Authority/Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas, and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani. Who is leading the effort to come up with what deal is now beyond immediate comprehension.



But the real curiosity comes later in the article. Not only has Abbas blown off the Egyptian discussions with Hamas today; he does not intend to go anywhere near that process this week:

Abbas meanwhile will meet with National Assembly speaker Bernard Accoyer on Tuesday and with Kouchner before travelling to Strasbourg to address the European parliament on Wednesday. The president of the Palestinian Authority will travel to Britain, Turkey, Poland and Italy later this week to discuss reconstruction efforts in Gaza following the Israeli offensive.

1:30 p.m. It now appears that talks between Hamas and Fatah, and thus any chance of a unifed cease-fire proposal, have broken down. Hamas official Mohamad Nazal, speaking from Damascus, accused Abbas of siding with Israel in the invasion of Gaza and "seeking to return" on the back of an Israeli tank. Meanwhile, Hamas official Ayman Taha in Cairo said, "Our position is clear. Our demand is the rebuilding or reform of the PLO [Palestinian Liberation Organization], but if the other side insists on not reforming the PLO or rebuilding it, it is our right to look at other options."

All indications are now that Abbas has skipped out on Cairo talks to go to Paris for discussions with US envoy George Mitchell and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. He is effectively trying to rebuild the December 2008 alliance with US and European officials to isolate and possibly topple Hamas. Meanwhile, Hamas will press its case that it is the group seeking both a cease-fire and leadership of the Palestinian people.

11:50 a.m. Since Mahmoud Abbas was supposed to be in Egypt today discussing cease-fire arrangements, this announcement from the Associated Press comes as a surprise:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy was meeting Monday with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and the prime minister of Qatar in an attempt to forge a lasting halt to violence after Israel's recent offensive in the Gaza Strip. President Barack Obama's new Mideast envoy, George Mitchell, was meeting with Sarkozy's chief of staff and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner.

10 a.m. An Israeli airstrike on a car in southern Gaza has killed one person and wounded three.

Morning update (6:40 a.m. GMT; 8:40 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Potentially important day in Cairo, where Hamas and Fatah delegations --- in separate, parallel talks --- are discussing cease-fire proposals with the Egyptians. While Hamas has been positive about an offer of a 12-month cease-fire to Israel, the discussions may founder over the isue of Palestinian "reconciliation". Palestinian Authority/Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas has been focusing on Hamas' rejection of the Palestine Liberation Organization and insisting that, in such a situation, he cannot with Hamas.

Gaza Rocket Update: It's Fatah, Not Hamas, Doing the Firing

Keep a close eye on this twist in the Israel-Gaza story. I missed it until it was pointed out by a reader, and I think few in the media have noticed. On Sunday several rockets and 10 mortars were fired into southern Israel from Gaza, and Israel responded by hitting a Hamas police headquarters and tunnels in southern Gaza.

Which might seem a logical response, except it wasn't Hamas launching the rockets and mortars:

The al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, the military wing of the Fatah faction led by Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, told Al Jazeera that it carried out the attacks....Israel, however, holds Hamas responsible for all rocket fire coming from Gaza.

This might explain why Israeli Minister of Defence Ehud Barak, in contrast to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's initial declaration of a "disproportionate response" to the rockets and mortars, stressed last night that there would not be a renewed Israeli invasion of Gaza.