The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (7 February): Edging to a Settlement?

Latest Post: Israel’s Violations of Human Rights in Gaza and the West Bank
Latest Post: Dead is Dead - Propaganda and the Jabaliya Mass Killing in Gaza

7:20 p.m. Desperate Words in a Desperate Position. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas may be pushing hard for a new arrangement with Tel Aviv, but present/former West Bank Prime Minister Salam Fayyad sees no hope:

I do not know of a single Israeli politician from any party who I would expect to offer a reasonable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. All of them want a partial solution, or they aim to improve the face and the conditions of the occupation while the settlements continue.

Actually Abbas, with Israel holding Palestinian Authority aid and payments to Gaza hostage, is sounding desperate as well:

The Palestinian people suffered from the most ruthless and barbaric onslaught for three weeks. We want aid shipments to speedily reach the Palestinian people who are in dire need. So far, the shipments have met just 20 percent of the actual need.

6:30 p.m. It Had to Happen. Egypt is alleging that the $11 million confiscated from Hamas delegates, seized as they returned to Gaza from the Cairo talks, was provided by Tehran. It is "only a small portion of the large amounts of money Iran has funneled to Hamas over the last week".

No evidence was provided for the claim.



1:15 p.m. There are reports, from Hamas sources and witnesses, that Hamas military leader Mahmoud az-Zahar is part of the delegation en route to Egypt. If true, this would point to the possibility of a critical point in the talks; it is the first time that az-Zahar has been seen in public since the Israeli invasion of Gaza and the attempt on his life by Israeli forces.

11:20 a.m. Ali Yenidunya has posted separately on the report of the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem on Israel's human rights violations in Gaza and the West Bank.

10 a.m. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas met Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday and will meet other Turkish officials today. The statements on the talks was anodyne: "The latest efforts to secure unity among Palestinian groups were reviewed thoroughly."

9:30 a.m. We've posted separately on what, in our view, is a deplorable attempt to play down civilian deaths from Israeli fire. Israel did not directly hit a school/shelter; it just hit the civilians killed outside it.

Morning Update (9 a.m. GMT; 11 a.m. Israel/Palestine): We ended last evening on a pessimistic note about any Israel-Gaza settlement but there are a couple of interesting, more optimistic twists this morning.

Some Israeli officials are putting out the confirmation that Hamas is not responsible for the recent firings of rockets into southern Israel; instead, the launches are being carried out by Islamic Jihad, Popular Resistance Committees, and, yes, Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah.

We already reported this. The significance is that Israeli officials will give up the public, inaccurate line blaming Hamas. This opens up some space for continuing discussions.

Which, in turn, points to the report in Israeli media that Hamas officials are returning to Cairo for talks on Sunday. A spokesman told YNet News, "The issues still being debated are fundamental but small, and...the organization would strive to prevent a relapse into fighting."

CNN-Turk also reports that Turkey is holding talks in Damascus with Hamas officials on a prisoner swap releasing the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.

Gaza Effects: Hamas Strengthens Position, Overtakes Fatah in Palestine

So how did Israel's invasion of Gaza reshape the political battle between Hamas and Fatah? Have a look at a revealing poll from the Jerusalem Media and Communication Center.

A random sample of almost 1200 Palestinians, carried out between 29 and 31 January, has Hamas in the lead for the first time against Fatah across Palestine. Almost 29 percent said that, if legislative elections were held today, they would vote for Hamas vs. almost 28 percent for Fatah. Last April, Fatah had 34 percent support, Hamas only 19. Trust in Hamas has risen, albeit from only 17 percent to 28 percent, while trust in Fatah has declined from 31 to 26 percent. Similarly, trust in Hamas leader Ismail Haniya while trust in Fatah/Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas fell.



More than 53 percent of Palestinians on the West Bank and more than 35 percent in Gaza believe Hamas won the war against Israel. The percentage of those who believe rocket attacks help achieve Palestinian goals rose from 39 to 50 percent. Support for military operations and bombings against Israeli civilians also rose.

Those countries and organisations who supported Hamas and criticised Israel during the Gaza war, or those who were seen as helping Gazans, were most favoured by Palestinians. Turkey was seen positively by almost 90 percent, followed by Venuzuela
(80.6%), the International Committee of the Red Cross (79.8%); the United Nations relief agency (78.6%), Qatar (68.3%), Hezbollah (66.9%), the Muslim Brotherhood Movement (57.6%), and Iran (55.9%).

In contrast, Egypt was viewed positively by 35 percent of Palestinians. The United States had a favourable rating of less than 3 percent.

The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (5 February)

Latest Post: Welcome to the Israel-Palestine Future, Courtesy of the Likud Party

9:30 p.m. Israeli newspapers reporting that Israeli troops killed a Gazan with a grenade on the border.

8:45 p.m. According to Reuters, the discussions on an Israel-Gaza settlement are foundering on the specifics of control and reopening of crossings. Hamas says Israel is offering re-opening of 75 percent of crossings and full re-opening after the freeing of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, kidnapped in 2006. The offer is vague, however: Israel has not defined the "capacity" of crossings, making the 75 percent hard to measure, it has not specified which goods will be allowed into Gaza, and it has insisted on the right to re-close the crossings for security reasons.

Hamas, for its part, is insisting on the right to vet Palestinian Authority security members put on the crossings and requiring that they come from Gaza.

7:35 p.m. Egypt is definitely striking back at Hamas after the failure, in its view, to put suitable proposals to Israel. Hours after the suspensions of talks on Thursday, members of the Hamas delegation were stopped at the Rafah crossing with between $7 million and $9 million and 2 millions euros ($2.5 million) in cash in their suitcases. The money was confiscated as the delegates continued into Gaza.

Hamas is paying its employees in cash while Israel tries to restrict any movement of currency into Gaza.



7:20 p.m. Keeping Abbas on a String. Israel has agreed to allow $43 million of Palestinian Authority funds, or "tax money collectedl..on behalf of the Palestinian Authority" into Gaza to pay PA employees. The amount, however, is less than that requested by PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, and Israel has offered no response to Fayyad's declaration yesterday of a $600 million reconstruction programme for Gaza.

4:05 p.m. Dumbest Headline of the Day. Reuters reports on this morning's Israeli seizure of a Lebanese ship carrying aid to Gaza (see 11 a.m.): "Israel Seizes Gaza Freighter; No Arms Aboard".

Which, given that this was clearly a ship loaded with medicine, food, and blankets, is kinda missing the point. How about "Israel Seizes Gaza Freighter to Maintain Blockade; Roughs Up Crew"?

3:50 p.m. Ali Yenidunya offers the following analysis of yesterday's Abu Dhabi meeting of foreign ministers from nine Arab countries:

There are two important results from this meeting: Support for Fatah and warning to non-Arab countries in order not to intervene to Arab and Palestinian affairs. After Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s hospitability on Tuesday to the exiled leader of Hamas, Khaled Meshaal, this declaration is aimed at cutting the Shi'a penetration in Palestine by giving support to Fatah.

Although the target of this statement is commonly understood as Ahmadinajed by every media organization, this has gone unnoticed by the Turkish public. Some Turkish media have started asked if this declaration is aimed at Turkey’s increasing influence in the Middle East after Prime Minister Erdogan’s walkout in Davos. In response, ‘Arab betrayal’ discourses are being triggered in Turkey, referring to Arab proclamation of independence during the time of the Ottoman Empire.

11:50 a.m. Take That! Egypt, extracting some retribution for the failure to get a suitable proposal from Hamas for transmission to Israel (or for a suitable Hamas reaction to an Israeli proposal), has shut the border with Gaza to anyone and everyone: "The border is closed as of this morning. No humanitarian, media or medical delegations will be allowed through, nor will medical aid deliveries be permitted."

11 a.m. Details are emerging of the Israeli interception of the Lebanese ship with aid for Gaza, and it's not as straightforward as we reported at 5:50 a.m. An Al Jazeera correspondent on the ship reports five Israeli troops boarded the vessel:

They are pointing guns against us - they are kicking us and beating us. They are threatening our lives.

The owner of the ship says the Israelis destroyed all communications equipment and confiscated phones.

8:45 a.m. Egypt, in its version of the negotiations for an Israel-Gaza settlement, says it will be Saturday before Hamas makes its response to Israeli proposals. Hamas said yesterday that Israel had given an insufficient response to its proposals.

It's close to irrelevant who offered the proposals --- nothing will happen before the Israeli elections next Tuesday and while Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas is making his own maneouvres to represent the Palestinian position. The game right now is simply to claim the diplomatic high ground when and if meaningful negotiations do begin.

Morning Update (5:50 a.m. GMT; 7:50 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Israeli forces have stopped a ship, The Lebanese Fraternity, with 50 tons of aid. The ship was intercepted 20 miles off the coast of Gaza.

Indeed, the one area where international co-operation is succeeding on Gaza is control of arms shipments by sea. The US, Canada,and seven European nations met in Denmark on Wednesday to discuss the issue.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (4 February)

Latest Post: The Failed Olmert Offer of an Israel-Palestine Settlement
Latest-Post: Israel-Gaza: How to Cover a Mass Killing with "Balance"

9:25 p.m. Stating the Obvious. "The Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas said on Wednesday it doubted Egypt could complete a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Palestinian groups in Gaza on Thursday."

Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk set out the official line that "clarifications" were needed on the extent to which Israel would open border crossings, but to state the obvious, there was no way a proposal could be put while Fatah and Hamas are still vying with each other for the diplomatic upper hand.

8 p.m. Red Alert of the Day. Isaac Ben Israel, a Member of the Knesset, has declared that Israel has a year in which to attack Iran before Tehran has a nuclear bomb: Ben Israel, a former general and senior defence official, said, "Last resort means when you reach the stage when everything else failed. When is this? Maybe a year, give or take."

Meanwhile, Prime Ministerial candidate Benjamin Netanyahu told a conference that Iran poses "the gravest challenge Israel has faced since the War of Independence in 1948. We will work on all levels to neutralise this danger."

Evening Update (7:45 p.m. GMT; 9:45 p.m. Israel/Palestine): The Israeli military have accepted responsibility for the deaths of four girls from tank fire in Gaza.


So why have the Israeli Defense Forces admitted this incident when they have denied numerous others involving civilian deaths? Could the reason be that the girls were the three daughters and niece of a Gazan doctor, who appeared live on Israeli television when he received news of the killings?

Still, there are limits to responsibility, even the case is in the Israeli public spotlight. The IDF have claimed there were militants firing from the upper story of the house, which they did not know belonged to the doctor.

1 p.m. United Nations official Chris Gunness has claimed Hamas took hundreds of food parcels and thousands of blankets that the UN planned to distribute to 500 families. The Hamas Welfare Minister has denied the accusation.

12:45 p.m. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, addressing the European Parliament, has said, "Israeli leaders should be held accountable for their violations of international and humanitarian law." He claims 90,000 Gazans lost their homes in the recent Israeli invasion.

Abbas, seeking to regain leadership of the Palestinian movement, set out his "red line" for talks with Israel: "It is no longer acceptable to negotiate on the principle on ending the occupation. Negotiations must end the occupation of all the land occupied in 1967."

12:30 p.m. The Palestinian Authority, trying to regain a foothold in Gaza, has announced a $600 million reconstruction programme. Prime Minister Salam Fayyad announced that most of the money from donors, though no details were given on whether these were foreign governments, the United Nations, or non-governmental organisations.

Fayyad also did not say how the aid would get to Gaza, given Israel's restriction on any transfer of cash by the Palestinian Authority to the area. While Hamas has paid its employees in dollars, the Palestinian Authority has had to delay payments to its employees for two weeks.

8:40 a.m. Today's Mahmoud Abbas Walkabout. The Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas meets the President of the European Parliament, Hans Gert Pottering, and addresses the parliament on Wednesday.

Abbas met French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner on Tuesday. Kouchner made a call for Gaza's crossing to be reopened, but the real significance was the reference to "a major issue" of Palestinian reconciliation.

Abbas and his spokesmen are now putting out the line that they will not only work with Hamas in a unity movement but that such a movement must include Hamas. However, Abbas is adding a not-too veiled condition: "a national unity government that considers itself bound by international legality and previous agreements", i.e. recognition of Israel and previous arrangements on borders and Israeli settlements.


Morning update (8:15 a.m. GMT; 3:15 a.m. Israel/Palestine): We've posted two significant stories as separate entries: one on Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's offer of a broad settlement last autumn to the Palestinian Authority and one digging out the significance of a lengthy article by The New York Times on a mass killing in El Atatra by Israeli forces during the recent Gaza war.

Meanwhile, in a continuing side-story, Cyprus has given the United Nations a report on the cargo of a container ship suspected of carrying arms from Iran to Gaza. Israel and the US are hoping that this will finally tie Tehran to military support of Hamas; previous efforts in recent weeks have failed to provide the necessary evidence.

Israel-Palestine: The Failed Olmert Offer for a Settlement

The Los Angeles Times, reporting on the Israeli election campaign, buries a significant revelation from the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot. It is nothing less than an initiative by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, launched last autumn, to get an agreement with the Palestinian Authority:

Under the proposal, Israel would relinquish any claim to the Gaza Strip, all but a small part of the West Bank and Jerusalem's Arab neighborhoods, a hand-over that would uproot more than 60,000 Jewish settlers from the West Bank.

The Jewish part of Jerusalem and large suburban-style West Bank settlements near the city would remain in Israel's hands. In return for annexed West Bank land, the Palestinians would get a strip of the Negev desert adjacent to Gaza and a tunnel or overpass connecting Gaza and the West Bank. The shortest route linking the territories would run about 30 miles across southern Israel.

An international body representing Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, Israel and the U.S. would administer religious sites in Jerusalem's Old City and holy basin to ensure access for Christian, Muslim and Jewish worshipers. Israel would retain formal sovereignty over those sites.

Palestinians who fled or were forced from Israel around the time of the Jewish state's founding in 1948 would forfeit their right to return, although Olmert offered to accept a limited number -- up to 50,000, according to Israel's Channel 10 television -- under a family reunification program.

The Palestinian Authority was sceptical of the proposal, as it was only verbal and left too many details unsettled. Chief negotiator Saeb Erekat says, "[PA President Mahmoud] Abbas told Olmert that we will not be part of an interim agreement. Either we agree on all issues, or no agreement at all."