The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (18 February)

Evening Update (7 p.m.): As the Israel-Hamas talks on Gaza stall, inevitably Egypt's push for Palestinian "reconciliation" --- if it had any chance of success --- collapses. The Egyptian state news agency MENA is reporting, "Egyptian-sponsored reconciliation talks between Palestinian groups have been delayed to allow for more consultations."

2:30 p.m. Now Here's A Coincidence. On the same day that headlines are made over Syrian President Bashir al-Assad's encouragement of dialogue with the US, the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz features a story alleging that Syria has stepped up production of chemical weapons.

2:20 p.m. And That, For Now, Is That. Hamas has rejected Israel's precondition of a prisoner swap, including Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, for a Gaza settlement.



12:20 p.m. The Israeli daily Ma'ariv claims that chief negotiator Amos Gilad has criticised Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for linking an agreement on Gaza to a prisoner exchange involving soldier Gilad Shalit: "I don't understand what it is that they're trying to do. To insult the Egyptians? We've already insulted them. It's madness. It's simply madness. Egypt has remained almost our last ally here."

11:20 a.m. No Agreement. As we projected, the Israeli Cabinet has set the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit as a precondition for a settlement over Gaza. This now means that the arrangement of a prisoner swap has to be established for any agreement between Tel Aviv and Hamas.

8:20 a.m. An Initiative from Damascus. Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad, following the Gaza conflict and the advent of the Obama Administration, has set out his own vision of "engagement". He has eagerly welcomed the US as the "main arbiter" in the Middle East peace process, saying he expects the US to send an Ambassador to Syria soon.

We hope to analyse this in a separate entry later today. (cross-posted from Latest Alerts in US Foreign Policy thread)

8:15 a.m. A Qassam rocket has landed in southern Israel.

Morning Update (6:45 a.m. GMT; 8:45 a.m Israel/Palestine): I could almost cut-and-paste the update from yesterday. While movement is awaited from Tel Aviv today on the proposed Israel-Gaza cease-fire arrangements, Israeli planes have bombed several tunnels around Rafah as well as a Hamas post in Khan Younis. This is the standard retaliation for the firing of a mortar round into Israel on Tuesday night.

UPDATE: The US Airbases Inside Pakistan

It took the media only five days, after Senator Dianne Feinstein referred in a hearing to US airbases inside Pakistan, to find the supposedly super-secret location for American missile strikes and bombing raids.

The Times of London reports:

The CIA has been using the Shamsi airfield — originally built by Arab sheikhs for falconry expeditions in the southwestern province of Baluchistan — for at least a year. The strip, which is about 30 miles from the Afghan border, allows US forces to launch a Drone within minutes of receiving actionable intelligence as well as allowing them to attack targets further afield.

Shamsi was used for the 2001 American operations to overthrow the Taliban but the Pakistan Government claimed the US left in 2006.

The Times supports its discovery with evidence of a contract to deliver 730,000 gallons of aviation fuel, worth $3.2 million, to Shamsi.

You have to hand it to the US embassy in Pakistan, however. They are not giving up the public ruse, even if their statement seems to be uncomfortably close to protesting too much:

No. No. No. No. No. We unequivocally and emphatically can tell you that there is no basing of US troops in Pakistan. There is no basing of US Air Force, Navy, Marines, Army, none, on the record and emphatically. I want that to be very clear. And that is the answer any way you want to put it. There is no base here, no troops billeted. We do not operate here.

But, in a demonstration of how super-secret this entire operation is, a local journalist explains, "We can see the planes flying from the base. The area around the base is a high-security zone and no one is allowed there.”

War on Terror Watch: Guantanamo Guard Brandon Neely Interview on MSNBC

Yesterday we posted the harrowing testimony of Specialist Brandon Neely about the treatment of detainees at the Guantanamo Bay facility. Last night Neely was interviewed by Rachel Maddow on MSNBC:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRT-Im6O_Uw[/youtube]

Fudging the Decision: The Obama Statement on Troop Increase in Afghanistan

The news has just come in that President Obama has approved an additional  Marine Expeditionary Brigade and Army Stryker Brigade, plus support troops, for Afghanistan. (see full statement) This is in addition to the brigade just deployed in the east of the Afghanistan.

That reads to me as a compromise with the military, which had asked for a total of five brigades. Meanwhile, Obama gets his review which seeks a "comprehensive strategy" for Afghanistan. That in turn is a kick in the teeth for the military's plan, which had sought the significant troop increase and a handover of non-military duties to NATO forces and European countries.

Which only leaves the questions: what will the review decide and when will it reach that decision?

Obama may have played for time by throwing the military a half-fulfilled request. That in no way resolves the battle, either in central Afghanistan or in Washington.

PRESIDENT OBAMA'S STATEMENT

There is no more solemn duty as President than the decision to deploy our armed forces into harm’s way. I do it today mindful that the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan demands urgent attention and swift action. The Taliban is resurgent in Afghanistan, and al Qaeda supports the insurgency and threatens America from its safe-haven along the Pakistani border.

To meet urgent security needs, I approved a request from Secretary Gates to deploy a Marine Expeditionary Brigade later this spring and an Army Stryker Brigade and the enabling forces necessary to support them later this summer. This increase has been requested by General McKiernan and supported by Secretary Gates, the Joint Chiefs and the Commander of Central Command. General McKiernan’s request for these troops is months old, and the fact that we are going to responsibly drawdown our forces in Iraq allows us the flexibility to increase our presence in Afghanistan.

This reinforcement will contribute to the security of the Afghan people and to stability in Afghanistan. I recognize the extraordinary strain that this deployment places on our troops and military families. I honor their service, and will give them the support they need.

This increase is necessary to stabilize a deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, which has not received the strategic attention, direction and resources it urgently requires. That is why I ordered a review of our policy upon taking office, so we have a comprehensive strategy and the necessary resources to meet clear and achievable objectives in Afghanistan and the region. This troop increase does not pre-determine the outcome of that strategic review. Instead, it will further enable our team to put together a comprehensive strategy that will employ all elements of our national power to fulfill achievable goals in Afghanistan. As we develop our new strategic goals, we will do so in concert with our friends and allies as together we seek the resources necessary to succeed.

Mr Obama's World: Latest Alerts in US Foreign Policy (17 January)

Latest Post: Obama Announcement of Troop Increase in Afghanistan
War on Terror Watch: The Guantanamo Guard's Story and British Intelligence Chief, Judges/Lawyers Break Ranks
Latest Post: Professor Gary Sick on the Future of US-Iranian Relations
Latest Post: Is Israel Winning a Covert War Against Iran?



10:30 p.m. We've just posted a separate entry on the significance of President Obama's announcement of additional US troops to Afghanistan.

Evening Update (7:30 p.m.): President Obama has spoken to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation about Afghanistan, promising, "Very soon we will be releasing some initial plans in terms of how we are going to approach the military side of the equation in Afghanistan." He added, however, that he was "absolutely convinced that you cannot solve the problem of Afghanistan, the Taliban, the spread of extremism in that region, solely through military means" in a comprehensive strategy. ""We're going to have use diplomacy, we're going to have to use development."

12:55 p.m. A car bomb near Peshawar outside the home of a Pakistani official has killed 5 and wounded 16.

12:45 p.m. The Pakistani military, following Islamabad's acceptance of local autonomy in the Swat Valley, has agreed to match the cease-fire declared by insurgents yesterday.

12:45 p.m. Repeating Bad News. The UN released these statistics on civilian deaths in Afghanistan last month, but for some reason the media have decided to headline them today. Still they're worth repeating, especially in the current situation: the figure rose 39% in 2008 to 2118 deaths. Militants were blamed for 55% of the killings, while US, Nato and Afghan forces were responsible for 39%. (US military spokesman have claimed that US and NATO forces killed less than 100 civilians last year.)

12:30 p.m. Missile Symmetry. As the US tries to persuade Russia that missile defence is really only directed at Tehran, Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar is meeting Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov in Moscow today. Najjar, according to Russian media, "will seek to convince Russia on Tuesday to deliver air defense systems which could help repel possible Israel and U.S. air strikes".

7:35 a.m. General David Petraeus, the head of US Central Command, is in Uzbekistan today trying to obtain new routes for military supplies to American and NATO forces in Afghanistan. The Uzbek Government has only agreed to transport of non-military items.

7:25 a.m. Yesterday we asked what Washington's reaction would be to Venezuela's approval of a referendum allowing Hugo Chavez (pictured) to run for unlimited terms of office as President.

Here's the answer. State Department spokesman Noel Clay said, ""We congratulate the civic and participatory spirit of the millions of Venezuelans who exercized their democratic right to vote." There was no condemnation of Chavez, only the injunction, "It is important that elected officials now focus on governing democratically and addressing the issues of concern to the Venezuelan people."

Morning Update (6:10 a.m. GMT; 1:10 a.m. Washington): US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has offered a clue that the Obama Administration will pursue diplomacy rather than confrontation with North Korea. Her comment on a possible test of a long-range missile by Pyongyang? It would be "very unhelpful".

Next: Clinton says a North Korean attack on Japan would be "a bit inconvenient"?

(Removing the tongue from my cheek: Clinton continued with the emphasis on a diplomatic approach, ""If North Korea abides by the obligations it has already entered into and verifiably and completely eliminates its nuclear programme, then there will be a reciprocal response, certainly from the United States."