One to Watch: Iran Tests First Nuclear Plant

Related Post: Diplomatic Question of the Day - What Exactly is Dennis Ross In Charge Of?

Iran, in a high-profile ceremony on Wednesday, announced it has carried out successful tests at its Russian-built Bushehr nuclear power plant. The visiting head of Russia's state nuclear company, Sergei Kiriyenko, hailed "significant improvements" in the first Iranian nuclear facility to provide electricity.

So far, no real attempt to turn the news into a sign that Tehran is closer to dropping a bomb on us. The Times had a lengthy article shifting from atomic energy to "the United States and European Union suspect that Iran is secretly building a nuclear bomb". US media have been quiet, however, and there has been no reaction from the Obama Administration.

Mr Obama's World: Latest Alerts in US Foreign Policy (17 January)

Latest Post: Obama Announcement of Troop Increase in Afghanistan
War on Terror Watch: The Guantanamo Guard's Story and British Intelligence Chief, Judges/Lawyers Break Ranks
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Latest Post: Is Israel Winning a Covert War Against Iran?



10:30 p.m. We've just posted a separate entry on the significance of President Obama's announcement of additional US troops to Afghanistan.

Evening Update (7:30 p.m.): President Obama has spoken to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation about Afghanistan, promising, "Very soon we will be releasing some initial plans in terms of how we are going to approach the military side of the equation in Afghanistan." He added, however, that he was "absolutely convinced that you cannot solve the problem of Afghanistan, the Taliban, the spread of extremism in that region, solely through military means" in a comprehensive strategy. ""We're going to have use diplomacy, we're going to have to use development."

12:55 p.m. A car bomb near Peshawar outside the home of a Pakistani official has killed 5 and wounded 16.

12:45 p.m. The Pakistani military, following Islamabad's acceptance of local autonomy in the Swat Valley, has agreed to match the cease-fire declared by insurgents yesterday.

12:45 p.m. Repeating Bad News. The UN released these statistics on civilian deaths in Afghanistan last month, but for some reason the media have decided to headline them today. Still they're worth repeating, especially in the current situation: the figure rose 39% in 2008 to 2118 deaths. Militants were blamed for 55% of the killings, while US, Nato and Afghan forces were responsible for 39%. (US military spokesman have claimed that US and NATO forces killed less than 100 civilians last year.)

12:30 p.m. Missile Symmetry. As the US tries to persuade Russia that missile defence is really only directed at Tehran, Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar is meeting Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov in Moscow today. Najjar, according to Russian media, "will seek to convince Russia on Tuesday to deliver air defense systems which could help repel possible Israel and U.S. air strikes".

7:35 a.m. General David Petraeus, the head of US Central Command, is in Uzbekistan today trying to obtain new routes for military supplies to American and NATO forces in Afghanistan. The Uzbek Government has only agreed to transport of non-military items.

7:25 a.m. Yesterday we asked what Washington's reaction would be to Venezuela's approval of a referendum allowing Hugo Chavez (pictured) to run for unlimited terms of office as President.

Here's the answer. State Department spokesman Noel Clay said, ""We congratulate the civic and participatory spirit of the millions of Venezuelans who exercized their democratic right to vote." There was no condemnation of Chavez, only the injunction, "It is important that elected officials now focus on governing democratically and addressing the issues of concern to the Venezuelan people."

Morning Update (6:10 a.m. GMT; 1:10 a.m. Washington): US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has offered a clue that the Obama Administration will pursue diplomacy rather than confrontation with North Korea. Her comment on a possible test of a long-range missile by Pyongyang? It would be "very unhelpful".

Next: Clinton says a North Korean attack on Japan would be "a bit inconvenient"?

(Removing the tongue from my cheek: Clinton continued with the emphasis on a diplomatic approach, ""If North Korea abides by the obligations it has already entered into and verifiably and completely eliminates its nuclear programme, then there will be a reciprocal response, certainly from the United States."

Mr Obama's World: Alerts in US Foreign Policy (13 February)

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10 p.m. And yet more manoeuvring on Iran. The US State Department has condemned the Iranian Government's charges of espionage against seven members of the Baha'i religious community.

9:45 p.m. An interesting political twist in Iraq. Former Prime Minister Ayad  Allawi has warned that the country's fragile political stability could be broken if national elections later this year are as unfair as last month's provincial polls: ""If we don't rectify, if the process is not inclusive, and there are not laws in Iraq to clarify the funding and the capabilities of the various groups ... then we unfortunately will have a catastrophe in the next elections."

Evening Update (8:40 p.m): Here comes the Magic Link. The US Government has now tied its suspension of missile defence deployment in Eastern Europe to Russian agreement to end assistance to Iran's nuclear energy programmes: ""If we are able to work together to dissuade Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapons capability, we would be able to moderate the pace of development of missile defenses in Europe," said a "senior Administration official".

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that if North Korea "completely and verifiably" ends its nuclear arms programme, then the US is willing to normalize ties.

8:30 p.m. We've just posted a separate entry on how folks itching for a showdown with Iran have effectively thrown out the latest US intelligence assessment that there is no evidence Tehran has resumed production of nuclear weapons.

1:30 p.m. Afghan authorities have condemned a raid by Australian forces in which five children died.

10:20 a.m. In his first day of talks in Afghanistan, US envoy Richard Holbrooke will meet the Ministers of Defense and Interior. He sees Afghan President Hamid Karzai on Saturday.

9:55 a.m. A quiet start to the day has been disrupted violently by a suicide bomb south of Baghdad. At least 32 Shi'a pilgrims have been killed and 84 injured.

The attack is the second on Shi'a pilgrims this week, following the killing of eight people yesterday in Karbala.

Morning Update (9 a.m. GMT; 4 a.m. Washington): We're taking advantage of a slow news period to post a series of analyses: Afghan President Hamid Karzai's attempt to seize the public relations initiative from the US, the Director of National Intelligence's statement that there is no evidence for resumption of an Iranian nuclear weapons programme, and --- most importantly --- confirmation in US Government documents of extraordinary rendition, "ghost detainees", and torture.

Mr Obama's World: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (11 February)

Latest Post: US Engagement with Iran: Transcript of President Ahmadinejad’s Speech
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Mr Obama's World Today: Uncertain

Evening Update (8:45 p.m.): The US Government will send a delegation next week to the six-party talks in Moscow on North Korean disarmament.

4:40 p.m. Marc Lynch of Foreign Policy notes the story that almost all media have missed today:  the visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao to Saudi Arabia

4:25 p.m. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry has said that President Obama and Pakistani President Asif Zardari have spoken by phone, ageeing to start addressing problems in the region with a "holistic strategy".

Afternoon Update (3:30 p.m.): A spike in violence from bombings and attacks today. In addition to the deaths in Afghanistan, a provincial minister has been killed by a roadside bomb in northwest Pakistan. Bombs in Iraq have killed at least eight people, while gunmen have slain several others, including a senior engineer and a prominent local football player.

US envoy Richard Holbrooke has visited northwest Pakistan to view a Pakistani military installation. As with his talks with political leaders on Tuesday, Holbrooke would say no more than that he was on a "listening" tour.



11:35 a.m. The Russians really are playing this hand well on Afghanistan. Offering co-operation but also ensuring control and thus oversight of Moscow's interest, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, amidst meetings with a senior US diplomat, that Russian military aircraft could assist with the supply effort.

11:25 a.m. During a trip to Iraq on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said, ""We look positively on the slogan that Obama raised in the elections. The world has really changed. If the American administration wants to keep up with the changes, this will be happy news." (cross-posted from US Engagement with Iran thread)

9:30 a.m. A revealing bit of information that did not make it into the morning papers: "A senior American diplomat will hold talks with Russian officials on Tuesday about opening new supply routes across Russian territory to NATO forces in Afghanistan, the U.S. embassy said."

The news indicates how serious the supply situation for Afghanistan has become, with the closure of the Pakistan routes and the threatened shutdown of the US airbase in Kyrgyzstan. And it shows how dependent Washington has become on Moscow's goodwill for a solution, which in turn has shaped the encouragement of President Obama and Vice President Biden for closer co-operation with the Russians.

8:45 a.m. Meanwhile in Pakistan.... In another sign that the Obama Administration is reviewing its options carefully before making any strategic decisions, envoy Richard Holbrooke limited his comments after meetings with Pakistani officials to, "[I was here] to listen and learn the ground realities of this critically important country".

In contrast, the priority of President Asif Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani was clear: Give Us Money. Their recogition of "the importance of enhanced cooperation in defense and intelligence sharing" was followed by a request to Washington to "expedite" billions of dollars in aid.

7:55 a.m. The New York Times also has a shrewd reading of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's criticism of Vice President Joe Biden,  which we noted yesterday. Al-Maliki's response to Biden's complaints about the lack of Iraqi political and economic reform were offered during a visit to Baghdad by French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

The French, as all 2003 critics of "cheese-eating surrender monkeys" will recall, have had extensive economic interests in Iraq. Al-Maliki's comments, however, are not just a reach-out for investment for Paris; they signal Iraq's wish to move away from perceived political dependence on, even subservience to, Washington.

7:35 a.m. On the eve of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's trip to Asia, an interesting insight into Administration strategy on China in The New York Times.

"Senior Administration officials", probably from the State Department, tell the Times, "The Obama administration plans to realign the United States’ relationship with China by putting more emphasis on climate change, energy and human rights, widening the focus beyond the economic concerns of the Bush years." By going for environmental issues rather than risking economic confrontation, the US can then seek leverage on political concerns: "A broader relationship with the Chinese could create opportunities for collaboration — not only on a response to the global economic crisis, but also on the environment and on security issues like the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programs."

You may have noticed, however, the troublesome phrase in the spin. "Human rights"? Is Washington really going to press issues such as Chinese control of Tibet and jailing of dissidents?

The balancing act was demonstrated on Tuesday when State Department spokesman Gordon Duguid told CNN, ""We are disturbed that prominent Chinese human rights activist Huang Qi remains in detention. We call on the Chinese government to release Mr. Huang as soon as possible."

7 a.m. Repeating the latest in the battle within the Obama Administration over Afghanistan strategy. Countering President Obama's attempt to take more time through an inter-agency review, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has declared, ""I think that there is a realization that some decisions have to be made ... before the strategic review is completed. [Obama] has several options in front of him."

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, joined in the pressure on Obama. US military commanders "had this request out for many months and those working through the request recognize that the sooner the better with respect to this. I'm hopeful that we can get them there as soon as absolutely possible, but, again, that's a decision for the president of the United States, not for me."

Meanwhile, the US and Canada kept up the pressure on Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Mullen said in Ottawa on Tuesday, "As we look at the challenges that we have in 2009-2010 ... I think the lack of governance tied to the corruption that exists (in Afghanistan), is going to be the number one challenge that we have."

Morning Update (6:45 a.m. GMT; 1:45 a.m. Washington): Another day focused on the economy. President Obama's economic stimulus package moves from the Senate, where it passed yesterday, to the House of Representatives.

"A senior US official" has told CNN that American satellite photography shows possible preparations for a North Korean missile launch. Telemetry equipment is being assembled at the launch site, although there is no sign yet of a missile being moved. The last launch from the location, in 2006, was of a long-range Taepodong-2 missile, which flew for 40 seconds before crashing.

The US Government's reaction has been measured, focusing on diplomatic engagement with Pyongyang. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said on Tuesday:

Well, since the first time that they launched the missile, it flew for a few minutes before crashing, the range of the Taepodong-2 remains to be seen. So far, it's very short. I'm not going to get into intelligence reports, but it would be nice if North Korea would focus on getting positive messages across to the -- to its negotiating partners about verification and moving forward with the denuclearization.

Obama Press Conference: Thumbs-Up for Iran and Russia, Slapdowns for Petraeus and Pakistan

Related Post: Transcript of President Obama’s First Press Conference
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Update on Update: So, fearing that the President is stalling on the issue, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates says he expects Obama's decision on troops in Afghanistan in the "next few days".

Update: President Obama just used the ploy of "don't act; send it to committee" to foil the military's drive for a quick surge in Afghanistan. The White House has just announced "an interagency review", chaired by former CIA officer and current Brookings Institution fellow Bruce Riedel, to examine US policy on Afghanistan and Pakistan.

While President Obama's main concern in Elkhart, Indiana, last night was to put across his economic stimulus package, there were several significant exchanges with reporters on foreign-policy issues.

We've posted a separate entry on the significance of Obama's remarks about Iran, which offer further encouragement for engagement.

Here's a more subtle development, however, that the media missed: on Afghanistan, Obama slapped down the military and General David Petraeus.

We are undergoing a thorough-going review. Not only is General Petraeus, now the head of CENTCOM, conducting his own review, he's now working in concert with the special envoy that I've sent over -- Richard Holbrooke, one of our top diplomats -- to evaluate a regional approach. We are going to need more effective coordination of our military efforts with diplomatic efforts with development efforts with more effective coordination with our allies in order for us to be successful.

Interpretation? Obama signalled that he is not going to accept, without discussion and modification, the military's surge proposal. Specifically, he let it be known that Petraeus's word isn't gospel --- however big the legend of "victory" in Iraq --- and Holbrooke is his point man as he tours Afghanistan.

That's not to say Obama isn't playing tough. His other warning was that the US would use all necessary means to remove the insurgent threat from Pakistan:

This past week I met with families of those who were lost in 9/11, a reminder of the costs of allowing those safe havens to exist. My bottom line is that we cannot allow al Qaeda to operate. We cannot have those safe havens in that region. And we're going to have to work both smartly and effectively, but with consistency, in order to make sure that those safe havens don't exist.

Later in the conference, Obama returned to the theme and put the onus on Islamabad to respond positively to American plans: "I believe that the new government of Pakistan and -- and [President Asif] Zardari cares deeply about getting control
of this situation, and we want to be effective partners with them on that issue."

A more positive signal went out to Moscow, where Obama continued the Administration's early efforts at co-operation: "I've mentioned [nuclear proliferation] in conversations with the Russian president, Mr. Medvedev, to let him know that it is important for us to restart the conversation, about how we can start reducing our nuclear arsenals in an effective way."