Mr Obama's World: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (11 February)

Latest Post: US Engagement with Iran: Transcript of President Ahmadinejad’s Speech
Breaking News: Attacks in Afghanistan

Mr Obama's World Today: Uncertain

Evening Update (8:45 p.m.): The US Government will send a delegation next week to the six-party talks in Moscow on North Korean disarmament.

4:40 p.m. Marc Lynch of Foreign Policy notes the story that almost all media have missed today:  the visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao to Saudi Arabia

4:25 p.m. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry has said that President Obama and Pakistani President Asif Zardari have spoken by phone, ageeing to start addressing problems in the region with a "holistic strategy".

Afternoon Update (3:30 p.m.): A spike in violence from bombings and attacks today. In addition to the deaths in Afghanistan, a provincial minister has been killed by a roadside bomb in northwest Pakistan. Bombs in Iraq have killed at least eight people, while gunmen have slain several others, including a senior engineer and a prominent local football player.

US envoy Richard Holbrooke has visited northwest Pakistan to view a Pakistani military installation. As with his talks with political leaders on Tuesday, Holbrooke would say no more than that he was on a "listening" tour.



11:35 a.m. The Russians really are playing this hand well on Afghanistan. Offering co-operation but also ensuring control and thus oversight of Moscow's interest, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, amidst meetings with a senior US diplomat, that Russian military aircraft could assist with the supply effort.

11:25 a.m. During a trip to Iraq on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said, ""We look positively on the slogan that Obama raised in the elections. The world has really changed. If the American administration wants to keep up with the changes, this will be happy news." (cross-posted from US Engagement with Iran thread)

9:30 a.m. A revealing bit of information that did not make it into the morning papers: "A senior American diplomat will hold talks with Russian officials on Tuesday about opening new supply routes across Russian territory to NATO forces in Afghanistan, the U.S. embassy said."

The news indicates how serious the supply situation for Afghanistan has become, with the closure of the Pakistan routes and the threatened shutdown of the US airbase in Kyrgyzstan. And it shows how dependent Washington has become on Moscow's goodwill for a solution, which in turn has shaped the encouragement of President Obama and Vice President Biden for closer co-operation with the Russians.

8:45 a.m. Meanwhile in Pakistan.... In another sign that the Obama Administration is reviewing its options carefully before making any strategic decisions, envoy Richard Holbrooke limited his comments after meetings with Pakistani officials to, "[I was here] to listen and learn the ground realities of this critically important country".

In contrast, the priority of President Asif Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani was clear: Give Us Money. Their recogition of "the importance of enhanced cooperation in defense and intelligence sharing" was followed by a request to Washington to "expedite" billions of dollars in aid.

7:55 a.m. The New York Times also has a shrewd reading of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's criticism of Vice President Joe Biden,  which we noted yesterday. Al-Maliki's response to Biden's complaints about the lack of Iraqi political and economic reform were offered during a visit to Baghdad by French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

The French, as all 2003 critics of "cheese-eating surrender monkeys" will recall, have had extensive economic interests in Iraq. Al-Maliki's comments, however, are not just a reach-out for investment for Paris; they signal Iraq's wish to move away from perceived political dependence on, even subservience to, Washington.

7:35 a.m. On the eve of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's trip to Asia, an interesting insight into Administration strategy on China in The New York Times.

"Senior Administration officials", probably from the State Department, tell the Times, "The Obama administration plans to realign the United States’ relationship with China by putting more emphasis on climate change, energy and human rights, widening the focus beyond the economic concerns of the Bush years." By going for environmental issues rather than risking economic confrontation, the US can then seek leverage on political concerns: "A broader relationship with the Chinese could create opportunities for collaboration — not only on a response to the global economic crisis, but also on the environment and on security issues like the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programs."

You may have noticed, however, the troublesome phrase in the spin. "Human rights"? Is Washington really going to press issues such as Chinese control of Tibet and jailing of dissidents?

The balancing act was demonstrated on Tuesday when State Department spokesman Gordon Duguid told CNN, ""We are disturbed that prominent Chinese human rights activist Huang Qi remains in detention. We call on the Chinese government to release Mr. Huang as soon as possible."

7 a.m. Repeating the latest in the battle within the Obama Administration over Afghanistan strategy. Countering President Obama's attempt to take more time through an inter-agency review, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has declared, ""I think that there is a realization that some decisions have to be made ... before the strategic review is completed. [Obama] has several options in front of him."

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, joined in the pressure on Obama. US military commanders "had this request out for many months and those working through the request recognize that the sooner the better with respect to this. I'm hopeful that we can get them there as soon as absolutely possible, but, again, that's a decision for the president of the United States, not for me."

Meanwhile, the US and Canada kept up the pressure on Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Mullen said in Ottawa on Tuesday, "As we look at the challenges that we have in 2009-2010 ... I think the lack of governance tied to the corruption that exists (in Afghanistan), is going to be the number one challenge that we have."

Morning Update (6:45 a.m. GMT; 1:45 a.m. Washington): Another day focused on the economy. President Obama's economic stimulus package moves from the Senate, where it passed yesterday, to the House of Representatives.

"A senior US official" has told CNN that American satellite photography shows possible preparations for a North Korean missile launch. Telemetry equipment is being assembled at the launch site, although there is no sign yet of a missile being moved. The last launch from the location, in 2006, was of a long-range Taepodong-2 missile, which flew for 40 seconds before crashing.

The US Government's reaction has been measured, focusing on diplomatic engagement with Pyongyang. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said on Tuesday:

Well, since the first time that they launched the missile, it flew for a few minutes before crashing, the range of the Taepodong-2 remains to be seen. So far, it's very short. I'm not going to get into intelligence reports, but it would be nice if North Korea would focus on getting positive messages across to the -- to its negotiating partners about verification and moving forward with the denuclearization.

Today's Obama-meter: The Latest on US Foreign Policy (10 February)

Related Post: Failing the Torture Test? Obama Blocks Judicial Review of Bush Rendition Policy
Related Post: Transcript of Obama Press Conference (9 February)
Related Post: Obama Press Conference - Thumbs-Up for Iran and Russia, Slapdowns for Petraeus and Pakistan
Related Post: Obama on Iran - The Engagement Continues

7:45 p.m. CBS News has corrected its reports: Iranian news agency, not President Ahmadinejad, has requested a meeting with Obama.

7:05 p.m. Getting a Bit Uppity. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has hit back at Vice President Joe Biden, who last week criticised the slow pace on issues like the status of Kirkuk and distribution of oil revenues:

I believe talk about applying pressure on the Iraqi government or taking hard measures against it no longer works. Such speech is out of date, because the government of Iraq knows its responsibilities and acts accordingly in a strong way.

7 p.m. According to CBS News, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has requested a meeting with President Obama.



4:50 p.m. President Obama just used the ploy of "don't act; send it to committee" to foil the military's drive for a quick surge in Afghanistan. The White House has just announced "an interagency review", chaired by former CIA officer and current Brookings Institution fellow Bruce Riedel, to examine US policy on Afghanistan and Pakistan. (cross-posted from the Obama Press Conference thread)

2:40 a.m. Finally, news from Islamabad of the talks between Obama envoy Richard Holbrooke and the Zardari Government. Pakistani officials warned that any US military "surge" must be accompanied by a political strategy including talks with "moderate Taliban". Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said, ""Obviously, there are some irreconcilable elements and no one wants to deal with them....But there is a reconcilable element and we should not overlook their importance.

The Pakistani recommendation is in line with the approach proposed by Saudi Arabia and by Afghan President Hamid Karzai, which he highlighted at the Munich Security Conference on Sunday. At the same time, the Afghan Government is wary that Pakistan must be using the "moderate Taliban" to re-establish its influence within Afghanistan.

11:50 a.m. Another Engaging Sign. This time it's with Syria, as the Obama Administration has authorised the sale of spare parts for two ageing Boeing 747s, despite long-standing sanctions against Damascus.

Syria has also signed a memorandum to buy 50 European Airbus passenger jets over the next 20 years.

11:30 a.m. Two NATO soldiers have been killed by a roadside bomb in eastern Afghanistan.

11 a.m. US envoy Richard Holbrooke has met President Asif Zardari and other Pakistani officials. No word yet on the content of the talks.

10:55 a.m. Right Back at Ya. Hours after President Obama's endorsement of further engagement, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said he is ready for dialogue if change is "fundamental" and talks are based on mutual respect.

Morning Update (9:15 a.m. GMT; 4:15 a.m. Washington): We've got full coverage of the foreign-policy sections of President Obama's first press conference, including the transcript, a review of the President's statements from Afghanistan to Pakistan to Russia, and a special analysis of his comments on US-Iran relations.

Update: Unlikely Alliances Emerge from Iraqi Elections

Juan Cole has a very interesting revelation, via monitoring of Iraqi television, about post-election Iraqi politics:

Amir al-Kinani, head of the Independent Free People Trend, which is backed by the Al-Sadr Trend, revealed that his trend has agreed, in principle, with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, in his capacity as head of the State of Law Coalition, to form an alliance in the governorate councils won by the two lists.

So the political followers of the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who have been stridently opposed to the American occupation since 2003 --- at times quite violently, are now linking up with the Prime Minister's Daw'a Party? That is quite a turnabout, given that al-Maliki risked his political future less than a year ago by working with US troops to push back the Sadrists in Baghdad's Sadr City and Basra.

Cole lays out a clear, effective explanation. Both Daw'a and the Sadrists are religious parties seeking an Islamic state. Al-Maliki, having established his authority, would like to see American forces drawn down as soon as possible, as do the Sadrists. The major disagreement between the two --- that al-Maliki has been seeking a legislative basis for the US withdrawal, while the Sadrists are opposed to any legal recognition --- was effectively put outside the political arena when the Status of Forces Agreement was pushed through at the end of December.

If I was a US military commander or political representative, I would be thinking very hard about any statement that Iraqis, or at least Iraqi political leaders, welcome a continued American presence. The alignment of coalitions isn't looking very promising for that assertion.

Decoding the Political Challenges of the Iraqi Elections

Four days after the provincial elections in Iraq, the political complexities are beginning to emerge. While many are still caught up in the two-dimensional narrative of "victory for the secularists, defeat for Iran", this  is at best a diversion which does not appreciate the complexities of politics and society after Saddam.

Consider and contrast, for example, the fatuous cheerleading of the Kagan spin machine (Kimberly and Frederick in the Wall Street Journal) with Juan Cole's simple, effective correction: "Iran did not Lose the Provincial Elections". And, for the less onerous but still simplistic readings of "Big Win for Prime Minister al-Maliki", Cole has a more detailed breakdown today (which we reprint below) and an incisive conclusion:

Although Nuri al-Maliki's Da'wa Party got over a third of the votes in Baghdad and Basra, they clearly did not achieve a commanding position, and its share in the more rural Shiite provinces was signifcantly less..

The big story here is that the Shiite religious parties (and yes, the Da'wa or Islamic Mission Party is among them) again swept the Shiite south. However, those Shiite parties that won out this time want a strong central government, not a Shiite mini-state.



The irony, which is deliberately missed by those who want to twist the election into a simple "victory for America, defeat for Al Qa'eda, defeat for America's enemies" narrative, is that less than a year ago, the US was working against a strong Baghdad and in favour of stronger local Sunni movements. Then, however, al-Maliki asserted himself in the battles for Sadr City and Basra and Washington swung behind him as the most effective Iraqi leader.

But, of course, those local Sunni movements that had been courted by the US in the "surge" are still around --- indeed, up to 48 hours ago they were threatening a mini-war with Baghdad --- and so are the other parties in al-Maliki's coalition. As we said last summer and will say again, Iraqi politics is now beyond Washington, and the US military is marginal, not central, to the complex processes that will play out beyond any simple invocation of "democracy".

Religious Parties Sweep Shiite South; Sunni Arabs fragmented, mainly Secular
JUAN COLE

The Iraqi provincial election results are out. They confirm what I said last Monday, that the parties who want a strong, united Iraq have come to the fore in these elections. Although Nuri al-Maliki's Da'wa Party got over a third of the votes in Baghdad and Basra, they clearly did not achieve a commanding position, and its share in the more rural Shiite provinces was signifcantly less..

The big story here is that the Shiite religious parties (and yes, the Da'wa or Islamic Mission Party is among them) again swept the Shiite south. However, those Shiite parties that won out this time want a strong central government, not a Shiite mini-state.

There is nothing here to give comfort to those Americans who fear Iranian influence in Iraq. The Islamic Mission Party or Da'wa is just as committed to warm relations with Tehran as is the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. The Da'wa leaders were in exile in Tehran for years just like ISCI. Da'wa is more "lay" and less clerical than ISCI, but being "lay" means non-clerical, not secular. Da'wa wants an Islamic State.

These election results raise severe questions about the viability of the Biden plan, which foresaw three decentralized super-provinces overseen by a weak central government. Most of the victors in this election are strong believers in a centralized civil bureaucracy.

On the whole, I think these results are encouraging for Obama. The Sunni Arab ex-Baathist secular elites have reentered polities in the Sunni Arab areas. These election results put paid to the fantasies of Dick Cheney and John McCain that Sunni Arab Iraqis are pro-"al-Qaeda." Most of them would not even vote for a religious party, much less for a radical fundamentalist terrorist group. Cheney said that if the US left, al-Qaeda would take over Sunni Arab Iraq. That is highly unlikely given these election results.

Iraq voted as several distinct demographic zones.

In the two provinces with very large Shiite cities, the Islamic Mission Party (Da'wa) of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki took over a third of the vote. Another 15-20% of the vote went to Shiite fundamentalist parties such as the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq or the Sadrists. Contrary to what a lot of observers are saying, the Da'wa Party is not secular and it is not anti-Iran. It is Iraq's oldest Shiite fundamentalist party, founded in the late 1950s, and it explicitly works for an Islamic republic. Its leaders consult with and tend to defer to Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Since these parties will have to make post-election coalitions to rule, given that none gained a majority, the resulting provincial governments will resemble those formed by the United Iraqi Alliance, which grouped as allies these same Shiite religious parties. The major difference in this election in the big urban areas is that in Baghdad, the Shiite middle class gave the Iraqi List of Iyad Allawi nearly 10% of the vote, and the Sunni fundamentalists got a similar percentage. Of course, some Sunnis may have voted for Allawi's Iraqi List. But the election returns suggest that Sunnis are no no more than ten to fifteen percent of the Baghdad population, and that Iraq's capital is now a largely Shiite city. In Basra province, the Sunni proportion seems even smaller, tiny, even. This is odd because Zubayr near Baghdad is a largely Sunni city of 300,000. The Basra middle classes, once fairly secular, returned the big religious parties overwhelmingly.

The second zone is the medium and smaller Shiite cities of the south. There, Da'wa did not do nearly as well, receiving between ten and twenty-three percent of the vote. The other 90 to 77 percent of the seats went to other fundamentalist Shiite parties in the main. The Sadrists showed substantial strength in some provinces, garnering 14% and 15% of the vote. Although the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq suffered a massive reversal, insofar as it had dominated the provinces of the south from 2005, it still often ranged from 8% to 15% of the seats in these provincial councils. Other small Shiite parties, including former PM Ibrahim Jaafari's National Reform Trend and the Islamic Virtue Party, both small Shiite fundamentalist parties, often got between three and eight percent of the vote.

The final zone is the four Sunni Arab provinces, which did not vote similarly to one another.

The ethnically mixed Diyala Province in the east split its vote, with about a quarter going to secular parties with a Baathist background; about a fifth going to the Sunni fundamentalist bloc; a fourth going to the Kurdistan alliance, and about 15 percent going to Shiite fundamentalist parties.

In al-Anbar, the secular and tribal parties won big, with the religious parties marginalized (15% of the vote).

In Ninevah, a big, secular, centralizing party, al-Hadba', got nearly 50% of the seats, sweeping away the Kurdish representatives that were once prominent on this provincial council.

Salahuddin returned so many small parties that seeing a trend thare is beyond me. The over all picture of the Sunni ARabis is that contrary to the last administration in Washington, the Sunni Arabs of Iraq are mostly secular nationalists and are uninterested for the most part in fundamentalists or "al-Qaeda."

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Iraqi High Electoral Commission announced 90 percent of the results in the provincial elections held Jan. 31. More results are given in Arabic in this al-Hayat article. The New York Times has a fairly complete list of results in English.

Below, I list the major results, though I'm leaving out the very small parties. I will use the names of the leading parties rather than the names of their coalitions, since they aren't really much of a coalition and typically there is a strong party core. So the Islamic Mission Party or Da'wa of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki ran with others as the Coalition for a Government of Laws. The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim (which is especially close to Iran) ran with some other closely allied small parties as the Martyr of the Prayer Niche Alliance. And the Sadrists, followers of Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr, ran as "The Free Independent Movement." But I'll just call them Sadrists. Likewise, among Sunnis the National Dialogue Front of Salih Mutalk (secular, Sunni, ex-Baathist) ran in a coalition called "the Iraqi National Plan." Iyad Allawi's Iraqi National List kept its name. Former Prime Minister Ibrahim Ja'fari ran a party called the National Reform Trend.

LARGE SHIITE PROVINCES:

Baghdad: Da'wa won 38%; the Sadrists won 9%; the (Sunni) Iraqi Accord Front won 9%; The Iraqi List won 8.6%; the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) won 5.4%; The National Reform Trend won 4.3%

Basra: Da'wa won 37%; ISCI won 11.6% the Gathering of Justice and Unity won 5.5%; the Sadrists won 5%; the Iraqi Accord Front won 3.8%; the Islamic Virtue Party won 3.2%; the Iraqi List won 3.2%; the (Shiite fundamentalist) National Reform Trend won 2.5%

SMALLER SHIITE PROVINCES

Dhi Qar: Da'wa won 23.1%; Sadrists won 14.1%; ISCI won 11.1%; National Reform Trend won 7.6%; Islamic Virtue Party won 6.1%

Qadisiya: Da'wa won 23.1 %; ISCI won 11.7%; the National Reform Trend won 8.2%; the Iraqi List won 8%; the Sadrists won 6.7%; Islamic Loyalty won 4.3%; the Islamic Virtue Party won 4.1%

Maysan: Da'wa won 17.7%; Sadrists won 15.2%; ISCI won 14.6%; National Reform Trend won 8.7%; Islamic Virtue Party won 3.2%

Najaf: Da'wa won 16.2%; ISCI won 14.8%; Sadrists won 12.2%; Loyalty to Najaf won 8.3%; the National Reform Trend won 7%

Wasit: Da'wa won 15.3%; ISCI won 10%; Sadrists won 6%; Iraqi List won 4.6%; Constitutional won 3.9%; National Reform Trend won 3.2%

Babil: Da'wa won 12.5%; ISCI won 8.2%; Sadrists won 6.2%; the National Reform Trend won 4.4%

Muthanna: Da'wa won 10.9%; ISCI won 9.3%; Republicans won 7.1%; National Reform Trend won 6.3%; Sadrists won 5.1%; the National List won 5%; the Gathering of Muthanna won 4.9%;
Academics won 4.4%; the Middle Euphrates won 3.9%; the Islamic Virtue Party won 3.7%; the Iraqi List won 3.5%

Karbala: Yusuf Majid al-Hububi won 13.3%; the Hope of Mesopotamia won 8.9%; Da'wa won 8.5%; the Sadrists won 6.8%; ISCI won 6.4%; Justice and Reform won 3.6%; the
National Reform Trend won 2.5%; the Islamic Virtue Party won 2.5%

SUNNI PROVINCES

Salahuddin: Iraqi Accord Front won 14.5%; the Iraqi List won 13.9%; the Iraqi National Plan won 8%; the Kurdistan Alliance won 4% (plus many, many small parties)

Diyala: Iraqi Accord Front won 21.1%; the Kurdistan Alliance won 17.2%; and the Iraqi National Plan won 15%; The Iraqi List won 9.5%; Da'wa won 6%; the Coalition of Diyala won 5.3%; the National Reform Trend won 4.3%; the Sadrists won 3.1%; the National Movement won 2.6%; the Islamic Virtue Party won 2.3%

Ninevah: al-Hadba' won 48.4%; the Kurdistan Alliance won 25.5%; the Iraqi Accord Front won 6%; the Iraqi Islamic Party won 6.7%; the Turkmen Front won 2.8%; the National Iraqi Plan won 2.6%; ISCI won 1.9%

al-Anbar: the Iraqi National Plan won 17.5% ; the Awakening of Iraq won 17.1%; Iraqi Accord Front won 15.9%; the National Movement for Reform and Development won 7.8%; the Iraqi List won 6.6% (plus small parties)

Today's Obamameter: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (5 February)

Latest Post: The Latest on (Possible) US-Iran Talks

Current Obamameter: Gloomy ("What is the Exit Strategy? Frankly, We Don't Have One.")

9:05 p.m. The situation in Iraq is fluid as election returns come in, but it looks like the US has dodged one immediate problem from the outcome.

The final Anbar province results were satisfactory for Awakening Councils leader Ahmed Abu Risha, who had previously threatened action over the outcome (see 4 p.m.). The secular group al-Mutlaq, which had a narrow lead in the final count, is dissatisfied it did not have a greater margin, but it has agreed to work with the Awakening Councils, which worked with the US military in the "surge" of 2007/8.

That, however, leaves the potential problem in Baghdad, where Sunnis have won only a small number of seats.

9 p.m. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is not sounding very optimistic about the prospects of changing the Kyrgyzstan decision on closure of the US airbase:

It is regrettable that this is under consideration by the government of Kyrgyzstan. We hope to have further discussions with them. We will proceed in a very effective manner no matter what the outcome of the Kyrgyzstan government's deliberations might be.

4 p.m.Early confirmed returns from the Iraqi provincial elections point to substantial success for the Daw'a Party of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. The corollary, which has not been noted in the mainstream media so far, is that Sunni political parties have been almost shut out in Baghdad. Marc Lynch has an excellent reading of this.

This Baghdad situation should be linked to the paradox that local Sunni groups, whom the US built up in their vaunted "Awakening Movement", have been the losers outside Baghdad. Some of those groups, who are alleging they were beaten by voter fraud, are now threatening confrontation with the al-Maliki Government.

Much, much on this in an analysis tomorrow.

3:30 p.m. US diplomatic sources, amidst the setbacks with supply routes in Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan, are playing up a likely deal with Uzbekistan, linked to existing deals with Russia and Kazakhstan, for transport to Afghanistan.

But you may want to read the small print: the transport is of "non-lethal, non-military supplies". Fine, if you're throwing C-rations at the Taliban bad guys, not so good if you need ammo.

1:30 p.m. And while we're considering Russian moves....If Russia is prepared to trade support for Iran for US concessions on missile defence and nuclear forces, it's ensuring that it has a very big bargaining chief. The head of the Russian state nuclear corporation has said that Russia will start up a nuclear reactor at Iran's Bushehr plant by the end of 2009.

1:20 p.m. An important parallel story to the Russian-backed Kyrgystan closure of the US airbase. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has announced a Collective Security Treaty Organization including Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

The step is more evidence that while Russia is happy to deal with the Obama Administration on general security matters, especially over missile defense, it is now moving to re-establish its political and military position in Central Asia.

1:15 p.m. A suicide bomber has killed at least 12 people in an attack on a restaurant in Diyala province, 100 miles north of Baghdad. A roadside bomb in Baghdad targeted the Deputy Trade Minister, but he was unharmed.

10:30 a.m. The New York Times finally catches up with the story of the closure of the US airbase in Kyrgyzstan. Lots of useful information, but the most significant, somewhat hidden revelation is that --- less than a month after Genius/General David Petraeus had assured Washington that a deal had been wrapped up to extend the lease on the airbase --- the US will look for alternatives for the Afghan supply effort:

A senior State Department official said that negotiations with Kyrgyzstan over the base had been halted and that the alternatives under consideration included bases in Europe and the Persian Gulf, as well as a possible expansion of existing bases in Afghanistan.

Another alternative is to treat the Kyrgyz decision as horse-trading, with Moscow and Washington in a bidding war. The State Department official said, "“Once we evaluate what this is really worth to us, we’ll talk to them about money.” The US pays Kyrgyzstan more than $150 million in assistance and compensation each year, but "only a portion of that money went directly to the Kyrgyz government" (and here I'm not going to use the words bribe, backhander, kickback, etc.).

10 a.m. Jean Mackenzie at GlobalPost.com offers an incisive analysis on the looming political crisis in Afghanistan:

His term officially expires May 22, and the law states that elections should be held 30 to 60 days before the end of the president's tenure. Given the difficulties of voter registration, elections cannot take place before Aug. 20. But the parliament, which stands in bitter opposition to Karzai, has threatened to withhold recognition of his administration once his mandate is up.

9:30 a.m. Following President Obama's reassurances yesterday that he would not be pursuing economic protectionism, the US Senate weakened the "Buy American" clause in the economic stimulus package, stating that it would not override existing international treaties. On the other hand, the Senate rejected an amendment by John McCain to remove the clause altogether.

8:15 a.m. We've posted our latest reading of possible informal talks between US and Iranian officials this weekend.

Morning Update (6 a.m. GMT; 1 a.m. Washington): With US attention focused on domestic issues, notably the fate of the Obama economic stimulus package, the main developments in foreign policy are behind the scenes.

Afghanistan is still the site for major Administration battles. NBC News followed up on the story of the Joint Chiefs of Staff report, for an increase of up to 25,000 troops by summer and a shift of non-military activities to others, to be pressed on President Obama. Its killer line, however, came in an admission by a military official, "What is the end game? Frankly, we don't have one."