Mr Obama's World: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (14 February)

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Current Obamameter Reading: Settled with Distant Turbulence



7:15 p.m. What happened in today's meeting between US envoy Richard Holbrooke and Afghan President Hamid Karzai?

No, really, what happened?

2:15 p.m. How to Miss a Story. Reuters declares, "Lavrov welcomes U.S. signals on missile shield". Which is true, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, "It's not too late [to discuss the American deployment in Eastern Europe. We could sit down at the negotiating table and evaluate the situation."

The wider story, however, is Washington's attempt to link discussions on missile defence to a changed Russian position on support for Iran's nuclear programme. And Lavrov made no indication that Moscow would make such a connection.

11 a.m. Thousands of people have gathered in Martyrs' Square in Beirut to commemorate the fourth anniversary of the assassination of Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri.

8 a.m. GMT: Just in case you missed it late night, we've passed on the helpful warning in Human Events that "Iran is Taking Over America".

Morning Update (7:15 a.m. GMT; 2:15 a.m. Washington): Two days after US envoy Richard Holbrooke left Pakistan and amidst public confirmation that the US is using bases within the country for its missile strikes (more on that later), news is coming in of an aerial attack which has killed 25 people in South Waziristan. The US military is claiming the dead were "Al Qa'eda-linked" militants.

Diplomatic headlines are still taken up by the outline of US policy on North Korea by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Speaking on Friday before her departure to East Asia, she laid out the "unclenched fist" formula which is already being applied to Iran:

If North Korea is genuinely prepared to completely and verifiably eliminate their nuclear weapons program, the Obama administration will be willing to normalize bilateral relations, replace the peninsula's long-standing armistice agreements with a permanent peace treaty and assist in meeting the energy and other economic needs of the North Korean people.

Clinton then added the warning to Pyongyang "to avoid any provocative action or unhelpful rhetoric toward South Korea".

Clinton also restated the Obama Administration's line on China: no need for tension over economic matters but the US would continue to raise the issues of the environment and human rights.

Mr Obama's World: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (11 February)

Latest Post: US Engagement with Iran: Transcript of President Ahmadinejad’s Speech
Breaking News: Attacks in Afghanistan

Mr Obama's World Today: Uncertain

Evening Update (8:45 p.m.): The US Government will send a delegation next week to the six-party talks in Moscow on North Korean disarmament.

4:40 p.m. Marc Lynch of Foreign Policy notes the story that almost all media have missed today:  the visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao to Saudi Arabia

4:25 p.m. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry has said that President Obama and Pakistani President Asif Zardari have spoken by phone, ageeing to start addressing problems in the region with a "holistic strategy".

Afternoon Update (3:30 p.m.): A spike in violence from bombings and attacks today. In addition to the deaths in Afghanistan, a provincial minister has been killed by a roadside bomb in northwest Pakistan. Bombs in Iraq have killed at least eight people, while gunmen have slain several others, including a senior engineer and a prominent local football player.

US envoy Richard Holbrooke has visited northwest Pakistan to view a Pakistani military installation. As with his talks with political leaders on Tuesday, Holbrooke would say no more than that he was on a "listening" tour.



11:35 a.m. The Russians really are playing this hand well on Afghanistan. Offering co-operation but also ensuring control and thus oversight of Moscow's interest, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, amidst meetings with a senior US diplomat, that Russian military aircraft could assist with the supply effort.

11:25 a.m. During a trip to Iraq on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said, ""We look positively on the slogan that Obama raised in the elections. The world has really changed. If the American administration wants to keep up with the changes, this will be happy news." (cross-posted from US Engagement with Iran thread)

9:30 a.m. A revealing bit of information that did not make it into the morning papers: "A senior American diplomat will hold talks with Russian officials on Tuesday about opening new supply routes across Russian territory to NATO forces in Afghanistan, the U.S. embassy said."

The news indicates how serious the supply situation for Afghanistan has become, with the closure of the Pakistan routes and the threatened shutdown of the US airbase in Kyrgyzstan. And it shows how dependent Washington has become on Moscow's goodwill for a solution, which in turn has shaped the encouragement of President Obama and Vice President Biden for closer co-operation with the Russians.

8:45 a.m. Meanwhile in Pakistan.... In another sign that the Obama Administration is reviewing its options carefully before making any strategic decisions, envoy Richard Holbrooke limited his comments after meetings with Pakistani officials to, "[I was here] to listen and learn the ground realities of this critically important country".

In contrast, the priority of President Asif Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani was clear: Give Us Money. Their recogition of "the importance of enhanced cooperation in defense and intelligence sharing" was followed by a request to Washington to "expedite" billions of dollars in aid.

7:55 a.m. The New York Times also has a shrewd reading of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's criticism of Vice President Joe Biden,  which we noted yesterday. Al-Maliki's response to Biden's complaints about the lack of Iraqi political and economic reform were offered during a visit to Baghdad by French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

The French, as all 2003 critics of "cheese-eating surrender monkeys" will recall, have had extensive economic interests in Iraq. Al-Maliki's comments, however, are not just a reach-out for investment for Paris; they signal Iraq's wish to move away from perceived political dependence on, even subservience to, Washington.

7:35 a.m. On the eve of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's trip to Asia, an interesting insight into Administration strategy on China in The New York Times.

"Senior Administration officials", probably from the State Department, tell the Times, "The Obama administration plans to realign the United States’ relationship with China by putting more emphasis on climate change, energy and human rights, widening the focus beyond the economic concerns of the Bush years." By going for environmental issues rather than risking economic confrontation, the US can then seek leverage on political concerns: "A broader relationship with the Chinese could create opportunities for collaboration — not only on a response to the global economic crisis, but also on the environment and on security issues like the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programs."

You may have noticed, however, the troublesome phrase in the spin. "Human rights"? Is Washington really going to press issues such as Chinese control of Tibet and jailing of dissidents?

The balancing act was demonstrated on Tuesday when State Department spokesman Gordon Duguid told CNN, ""We are disturbed that prominent Chinese human rights activist Huang Qi remains in detention. We call on the Chinese government to release Mr. Huang as soon as possible."

7 a.m. Repeating the latest in the battle within the Obama Administration over Afghanistan strategy. Countering President Obama's attempt to take more time through an inter-agency review, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has declared, ""I think that there is a realization that some decisions have to be made ... before the strategic review is completed. [Obama] has several options in front of him."

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, joined in the pressure on Obama. US military commanders "had this request out for many months and those working through the request recognize that the sooner the better with respect to this. I'm hopeful that we can get them there as soon as absolutely possible, but, again, that's a decision for the president of the United States, not for me."

Meanwhile, the US and Canada kept up the pressure on Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Mullen said in Ottawa on Tuesday, "As we look at the challenges that we have in 2009-2010 ... I think the lack of governance tied to the corruption that exists (in Afghanistan), is going to be the number one challenge that we have."

Morning Update (6:45 a.m. GMT; 1:45 a.m. Washington): Another day focused on the economy. President Obama's economic stimulus package moves from the Senate, where it passed yesterday, to the House of Representatives.

"A senior US official" has told CNN that American satellite photography shows possible preparations for a North Korean missile launch. Telemetry equipment is being assembled at the launch site, although there is no sign yet of a missile being moved. The last launch from the location, in 2006, was of a long-range Taepodong-2 missile, which flew for 40 seconds before crashing.

The US Government's reaction has been measured, focusing on diplomatic engagement with Pyongyang. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said on Tuesday:

Well, since the first time that they launched the missile, it flew for a few minutes before crashing, the range of the Taepodong-2 remains to be seen. So far, it's very short. I'm not going to get into intelligence reports, but it would be nice if North Korea would focus on getting positive messages across to the -- to its negotiating partners about verification and moving forward with the denuclearization.

Today's Obamameter: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (3 February)

Current Obamameter Reading: Fair but Long-Term Prospect of Storms

11:20 p.m. Well, not much to wrap up --- world still in one piece and Obama Administration preoccupied with the forced withdrawal of Tom Daschle's nomination for Health and Human Services Secretary because of tax problems.

We've got inside story on two major developments, however, regarding Afghanistan and Iran and will be leading the morning update with these in a few hours.

Good night and peace to all.



7:30 p.m. We're suspending service for the very good reason that we're seeing Steve Earle's son Justin in concert. Back later with an evening wrap-up.

6:10 p.m. Oops, Spoke Too Soon. We reported 30 minutes ago of far-from-panicked response of the US Administration to the Iran satellite launch, but in another sign that the Obama White House is far from unified in both message and policy, a Pentagon spokesman is not so laid back: "It is certainly a reason for us to be concerned about Iran and its continued attempts to develop a ballistic missile program of increasingly long range."

One can only hope that the US gets its act on Iran together before the meeting on Wednesday with Russia, China, and the EU-3 (Britain, France, and Germany) in Berlin. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held the line today: ""It is clear that ... Iran has an opportunity to step up and become a productive member of the international community."

6 p.m. Score One for Moscow. As we projected this morning (10:25 a.m.), the Russian offer of aid to Kyrgyzstan has had consequences for the US. Reports indicate the US airbase, strategically important for support of Afghanistan, will be closed.

5:45 p.m. The Israeli Government won't be pleased, but this seems a sensible (if unofficial and anonymous) line on the Iran satellite launch from an Obama staffer. The strategic balance in the region is unaltered: ""The satellite technology they have deployed is probably not state of the art, but for the Iranians this is an important symbolic step forward."

1:45 p.m. The Islamic insurgent group, Al-Shabab, has called on Somalis to drive African Union troops out of the country.

11:25 a.m. An interesting piece from Reuters: "The Obama administration has toned down U.S. rhetoric against Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, dropping for now a public demand the veteran African leader step down." Policy towards Zimbabwe is under review, but with no appointment yet of the State Department's top personnel for Africa, this may take take some time.

11:20 a.m. Iran Coming in from the US Cold? If so, one reason will be the increasingly difficult position for US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. NATO's top commander, General John Craddock, has told the Associated Press, that the alliance would not object to individual member nations making deals with Iran to supply their forces in Afghanistan: "Those would be national decisions. Nations should act in a manner that is consistent with their national interest and with their ability to resupply their forces."

10:45 a.m. Russia and the US may be maneouvring for advantages in places like Central Asia, but the direct relationship continues to improve. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke by phone on Tuesday. The chief topic, according to a Russian statement, was "the mutual interest of building a positive agenda".

10:35 a.m. Update on the Stalemate over Drugs/AIDS Policy. The Guardian has a follow-up article on our analysis on Sunday about the State Department's blocking of any reference to "harm reduction" in a United Nations declaration on drug use and AIDS.

10:25 a.m. One to Watch in Central Asia. Russia, as part of its ongoing manoeuvres vs. the US for influence in the region, may offer "hundreds of millions of dollars in emergency aid" to Kyrgyzstan President Kurmanbek Bakiyev during his talks in Moscow with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev.

Kremlin officials said that military co-operation would be discussed but did not indicate whether the offer of the aid and that co-operation has any connection to current US efforts to renew the lease on its airbase in Kyrgyzstan. The US base is a vital supply route for forces in Afghanistan.

10 a.m. We've just posted a separate entry on the revelation in The Washington Post that a Pentagon memo says Blackwater, the security firm responsible for numerous civilian deaths in Iraq, is not subject to US criminal laws.

9:45 a.m. A Reminder Why Obama is Better. Today's New York Times has an editorial by a Mr John Bolton, who I believe was an official in the George W. Bush Administration, on Sunday's Iraqi provincial elections.

Not one of the 500 words is devoted, however, to the significance of the elections for Iraqis. Instead, Bolton's concern is how the vote "redefine Iran's role in the region".

Readers who move beyond the superficial headline --- or the question of why the Times continues to give space to Bolton to blow hard; the three reactions from Iraqi bloggers are far more important --- may recognise the strategy of the Bush Administration: make Iraq a demonstration to show American strength to others in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. But, to keep it simple....

It's Not All About Iran.

7:45 a.m. The Flaws in the Afghanistan Strategy. We've just posted a separate entry on a revealing --- and disturbing --- speech by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of State yesterday.

Morning Update (7 a.m. GMT; 2 a.m. Washington): NATO statistics show a 30 percent increase in attacks by roadside bomb in Afghanistan in 2008. Overall attacks were up 31 percent, and deaths of US and NATO forces rose 26 percent.

Pakistani insurgents have blown up a major bridge in the Khyber Pass,west of Peshawar, further restricting movement along the supply route to US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. The US military is looking for alternative routes to the Pass and another route via Chaman to its Afghan base in Kandahar because of insurgent attacks; up to 75 percent of supplies to US and NATO forces could be affected. Pakistani military claimed it has killed 35 militants in fighting in the Swat Valley.

Iran, timing the breakthrough with the celebration of the 30th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, has launched its first satellite orbiting the Earth.

Fighting in Somalia, which we reported yesterday, killed at least 39 civilians. The incident followed a bomb targeting African Union troops, which injured one soldier.