Today's Obamameter: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (3 February)

Current Obamameter Reading: Fair but Long-Term Prospect of Storms

11:20 p.m. Well, not much to wrap up --- world still in one piece and Obama Administration preoccupied with the forced withdrawal of Tom Daschle's nomination for Health and Human Services Secretary because of tax problems.

We've got inside story on two major developments, however, regarding Afghanistan and Iran and will be leading the morning update with these in a few hours.

Good night and peace to all.



7:30 p.m. We're suspending service for the very good reason that we're seeing Steve Earle's son Justin in concert. Back later with an evening wrap-up.

6:10 p.m. Oops, Spoke Too Soon. We reported 30 minutes ago of far-from-panicked response of the US Administration to the Iran satellite launch, but in another sign that the Obama White House is far from unified in both message and policy, a Pentagon spokesman is not so laid back: "It is certainly a reason for us to be concerned about Iran and its continued attempts to develop a ballistic missile program of increasingly long range."

One can only hope that the US gets its act on Iran together before the meeting on Wednesday with Russia, China, and the EU-3 (Britain, France, and Germany) in Berlin. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held the line today: ""It is clear that ... Iran has an opportunity to step up and become a productive member of the international community."

6 p.m. Score One for Moscow. As we projected this morning (10:25 a.m.), the Russian offer of aid to Kyrgyzstan has had consequences for the US. Reports indicate the US airbase, strategically important for support of Afghanistan, will be closed.

5:45 p.m. The Israeli Government won't be pleased, but this seems a sensible (if unofficial and anonymous) line on the Iran satellite launch from an Obama staffer. The strategic balance in the region is unaltered: ""The satellite technology they have deployed is probably not state of the art, but for the Iranians this is an important symbolic step forward."

1:45 p.m. The Islamic insurgent group, Al-Shabab, has called on Somalis to drive African Union troops out of the country.

11:25 a.m. An interesting piece from Reuters: "The Obama administration has toned down U.S. rhetoric against Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, dropping for now a public demand the veteran African leader step down." Policy towards Zimbabwe is under review, but with no appointment yet of the State Department's top personnel for Africa, this may take take some time.

11:20 a.m. Iran Coming in from the US Cold? If so, one reason will be the increasingly difficult position for US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. NATO's top commander, General John Craddock, has told the Associated Press, that the alliance would not object to individual member nations making deals with Iran to supply their forces in Afghanistan: "Those would be national decisions. Nations should act in a manner that is consistent with their national interest and with their ability to resupply their forces."

10:45 a.m. Russia and the US may be maneouvring for advantages in places like Central Asia, but the direct relationship continues to improve. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke by phone on Tuesday. The chief topic, according to a Russian statement, was "the mutual interest of building a positive agenda".

10:35 a.m. Update on the Stalemate over Drugs/AIDS Policy. The Guardian has a follow-up article on our analysis on Sunday about the State Department's blocking of any reference to "harm reduction" in a United Nations declaration on drug use and AIDS.

10:25 a.m. One to Watch in Central Asia. Russia, as part of its ongoing manoeuvres vs. the US for influence in the region, may offer "hundreds of millions of dollars in emergency aid" to Kyrgyzstan President Kurmanbek Bakiyev during his talks in Moscow with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev.

Kremlin officials said that military co-operation would be discussed but did not indicate whether the offer of the aid and that co-operation has any connection to current US efforts to renew the lease on its airbase in Kyrgyzstan. The US base is a vital supply route for forces in Afghanistan.

10 a.m. We've just posted a separate entry on the revelation in The Washington Post that a Pentagon memo says Blackwater, the security firm responsible for numerous civilian deaths in Iraq, is not subject to US criminal laws.

9:45 a.m. A Reminder Why Obama is Better. Today's New York Times has an editorial by a Mr John Bolton, who I believe was an official in the George W. Bush Administration, on Sunday's Iraqi provincial elections.

Not one of the 500 words is devoted, however, to the significance of the elections for Iraqis. Instead, Bolton's concern is how the vote "redefine Iran's role in the region".

Readers who move beyond the superficial headline --- or the question of why the Times continues to give space to Bolton to blow hard; the three reactions from Iraqi bloggers are far more important --- may recognise the strategy of the Bush Administration: make Iraq a demonstration to show American strength to others in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. But, to keep it simple....

It's Not All About Iran.

7:45 a.m. The Flaws in the Afghanistan Strategy. We've just posted a separate entry on a revealing --- and disturbing --- speech by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of State yesterday.

Morning Update (7 a.m. GMT; 2 a.m. Washington): NATO statistics show a 30 percent increase in attacks by roadside bomb in Afghanistan in 2008. Overall attacks were up 31 percent, and deaths of US and NATO forces rose 26 percent.

Pakistani insurgents have blown up a major bridge in the Khyber Pass,west of Peshawar, further restricting movement along the supply route to US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. The US military is looking for alternative routes to the Pass and another route via Chaman to its Afghan base in Kandahar because of insurgent attacks; up to 75 percent of supplies to US and NATO forces could be affected. Pakistani military claimed it has killed 35 militants in fighting in the Swat Valley.

Iran, timing the breakthrough with the celebration of the 30th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, has launched its first satellite orbiting the Earth.

Fighting in Somalia, which we reported yesterday, killed at least 39 civilians. The incident followed a bomb targeting African Union troops, which injured one soldier.

Today's Obamameter: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (1 February)

Latest Post: Obama, Drugs Policy, and AIDS Prevention

Current Obamameter: Good (Early Sunshine Obscured by Gathering Clouds, Improving by Super Bowl)

10:10 p.m. GMT: President Obama gave a high-profile few minutes to NBC before tonight's American football Super Bowl. Interviewer Matt Lauer decided to get a bit serious, after asking Obama for his Super Bowl prediction (the President diplomatically said the Pittsburgh Steelers in a close, hard-fought game), on issues like the economic stimulus package. On Iraq, Obama said there would be "substantial" troop reductions by the time of next year's game.



5:10 p.m. GMT: Optimism over yesterday's Iraqi elections is now being tempered a bit. The turnout is now estimated at 51 percent, lower than the 59 percent for the January 2005 national elections and 76 percent for the November 2005 Parliamentary elections. Voters were deterred or hindered by tight security and registration problems.

5 p.m. GMT: In the latest clash in the Swat Valley in Pakistan, at least 43 civilians were killed in "cross-fire" between insurgents and Government forces, according to a Pakistani military official.

The confidential admissions verifies the reports of local residents. Earlier, Government forces claim they have killed 16 insurgents.

4:30 p.m. GMT: The Karzai Government in Afghanistan has struck back at Western criticism of "corruption", claiming that 80 percent of Afghan aid is in the hands of international organisations. Foreign Minister Rangeen Dadfar Spanta said:

When we have received 20 percent of the foreign aid, then it is better to be asked about that. The problem is that we are asked about the whole of the 100 percent, while we are unaware of the 80 percent.

Spanta linked the issue of corruption to that of the Government's relationship with foreign donors: ""What we need is better coordination, what we need is promoting the government's efficiency, what we need is good governance ... and a campaign against corruption on part of the government and the international community."

1 p.m. GMT: Three civilians, including two children, have died in Afghanistan in two separate incidents involving international forces.

10:45 a.m. GMT: According to early unofficial estimates, about 60 percent of Iraqis voted in yesterday's elections. Electoral commission officials say that the State of Law Coalition, the list backed by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, are leading the polls in Maliki's strongholds of Najaf, Diwaniyah, Wasit, and Babil.

9:05 a.m GMT: The Observer of London reports that Binyam Mohamed, a British resident held at Guantanamo Bay for seven years, is close to death after a hunger strike that began on 5 January.

9 a.m. GMT: A suicide bomber in Afghanistan attacked a convoy of foreign troops this morning, wounded two civilians and a French soldier.

8 a.m. GMT: It will be some time before we have returns from Iraq's elections. Meanwhile, Juan Cole has an excellent summary and analysis of the vote.

Morning Update (7 a.m. GMT; 2 a.m. Washington): The sunshine comes from Iraq, where elections in 14 of 18 provinces were conducted peacefully and the civilian death toll in January was the lowest monthly figure since 2003.

The mist is in Afghanistan, with Kabul and US authorities floating a plan to arm special Afghan security forces to go into the countryside. The possible complications are highlighted in an MSNBC story of villagers' anger at civilian deaths from "special operations". Three US raids in recent weeks have killed up to 50 bystanders.


And the high clouds are from a so-far little-noticed story of how the Obama Administration, despite the acclaim for its more moderate position to international social issues, could be damaging the fight against AIDS (more on this in a separate post).

All Talk, No Clean Needles? The Obama Administration, Drugs Policy, and AIDS Prevention

Much praise has been given, quite rightly, to President Obama's new tone on US co-operation in international health and social programmes, such as his revocation of Ronald Reagan's "gag order" on American organisations assisting with health and family planning efforts.

Yet, whatever the good intentions, the Obama Administration already faces a serious test within its own ranks. State Department officials at a United Nations drugs conference in Vienna have been blocking any reference to "harm reduction" because the phrase might refer to proposals for the exchange of used needles and syringes. The proposals are supported by most delegations at the conference, including the European Union.



The White House website sets out Obama's position as "lifting the federal ban on needle exchange, which could dramatically reduce rates of infection among drug users." There has been no move, however, to change the current policy, and the State Department's officials are studiously adhering to it. The situation is further complicated because the State Department's global AIDS coordinator, Dr Mark Dybul, was forced to resign on 22 January, as he was a Bush appointee, and no replacement has been named.

A draft version of the UN declaration, dated 15 January, included language to "develop, review and strengthen" drug-treatment programs to include "harm reduction measures aiming at preventing and reducing the adverse health, social and economic consequences of drug use and dependence". The US, joined by Russia, Japan, and Colombia, insisted the language be removed. The clause was moved into a footnote but that was also rejected by the US.

The matter is urgent because the draft is to be ratified by the UN General Assembly Special Session on Drugs on 12-13 March.

There has been some public movement in the US on the issue. On Wednesday, three members of Congress asked Susan Rice, the US Ambassador to the UN, to act, and The New York Times had an editorial on Saturday calling for quick action by Obama. The story, however, has had little circulation in other media.