Iran & the "Non-Bomb": The Real Story on Tehran's Nuclear Programme

The dominant narrative in the "Western" media today will be "Iran Is Working on a Bomb", based on the recycling (but not necessarily close reading) of the draft report from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

There is a twist, however, in the tale. Some folks in the US Government are trying to re-direct the story. Reuters, which was the first agency to run the Bomb Threat headline, now reports:

Senior Obama administration officials said on Thursday they were struck by the number of significant technical problems Iran appears to be encountering on the road to a nuclear weapon.

The U.S. officials, briefing reporters on a new International Atomic Energy Agency report, said Tehran is showing more evidence of trying to move toward a nuclear weapons capability but may be running out of uranium.

Iran’s Nukes: The Latest IAEA Report (18 February)

"The fact that they have increased the level of non-cooperation indicates to me that unless we can mount the international pressure to stop it, this program is heading more and more in the direction of seeking a weapons capability," one official said.

It may take Iran longer to build a weapon because of the technical problems, the official said, "but the pattern of behavior is one that I think is very disturbing."

Interpretation? The Obama Administration's drive will be to "keep the lid" on Iran by holding out for an uranium swap deal with tight international controls and supervision, by pushing directed sanctions against essential equipment for Iran's programme, and by limiting Tehran's access to uranium.

That's the real story here, not the extrapolations and mis-interpretations of an IAEA report which actually said little new. Iran is not on the verge of The Bomb:

The [Administration] official said Iran seems to be "at least several years" away from accumulating sufficient quantities of 20 percent enriched uranium that would be necessary for converting into bomb-grade material. Uranium enrichment of 90 percent or more is needed for a weapon.

Comments

[Catherine]

Here's the view from China thanks to a new report by the International Crisis Group
The Iran Nuclear Issue: The View from Beijing
Asia Briefing N°100
17 February 2010
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6535&l=1

[Catherine]

Not much coming out of Iran re Turkey's efforts so far:
Iran mum on Turkish uranium offer
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/International/2010/02/18/Iran-mum-on-Turkish-uranium-offer/UPI-63111266507127/