Latest Iran Video: What Does the Iranian Public Really Think? (4 February)

Earlier today, I wrote --- somewhat in jest, somewhat in indignation --- about the claim to know "what the Iranian people really think" through the promotion of a set of old polls.

Those surveys were being resurrected in part for a two-panel seminar at the New American Foundation on Wednesday. The first panel features Steven Kull, the Director of WorldPublicOpinion.org, who carried out a poll in August-September 2009 and assessed this with 11 earlier polls (10 by the University of Tehran, 1 by a Canadian firm) in their latest assertions. He is joined by Jon Cohen, Director of Polling at The Washington Post. The second panel is made up of Flynt Leverett of the New America Foundation, Hooman Majd, a former translator for President Ahmadinejad and the author of The Ayatollah Begs to Differ, and Barbara Slavin of The Washington Times.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKG-hUyk1_0[/youtube]

Iran Spam, Spam, Lovely Spam: Mass E-mails, Polls, and “Analysis”
The Latest from Iran (4 February): The Relay of Opposition

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_a4KgvG-78[/youtube]

Comments

[Rev. Magdalen]

So...it's a panel on what the Iranian public thinks, but only one Iranian, a guy who used to work for Ahmadinejad no less, is invited to speak. This is going to look SOOOO racist later. Somebody will probably write a book about it, and "pulling a Leverett" will become a term for trying to use statistics to cover up racism for purposes of oil extraction and kickbacks.

[theali]

From the Methodology for All Three Surveys:
"GlobeScan’s professional staff designed the questionnaire and arranged for it to be conducted by a commercial survey research agency in Tehran which they had previously used for Iran surveys. "

So GlobeScan used another unnamed company in Tehran to run the survey. That is very trustworthy. Also the fact that the same company was used in the past, means that Iran's government has had a chance to notice that survey company and perpetrate it.

About University of Tehran survey conduct:
"an academic pilot project by a group of University of Tehran professors and researchers as part of a plan to inaugurate a University of Tehran"

Shouldn't the profs that commissioned the surveys, have their names stated with their work? How do we know if the "group of professors" had a balanced spectrum of political views, or that they were all Marandi clones.

[outsider]

If I were taking that survey and I gave my true views I would be afraid of prison and torture. I am not sure if the organizers are niave, arrogant or just self promoting.
It is amazing that anyone would even listen to Leverett, let alone give him importance.

[Old Outsider]

Obviously someone else liked the nick "Outsider" too, but with lower case "o".
OK, so I guess I should change my nick to "Old Outsider" to avoid confusion

[Catherine]

Found on Payvand.com

Iran Regime Change Survey

Iran-Regime-Change-SurveyAccording to the Persian language site sazegara.net, the following 5-question survey was conducted in secret in Iran, and about 350 Iranians from Tehran and 3 other unnamed provinces took the survey on Jan. 17th 2010.

Here is your chance to take the same survey but in English. You ‘ll see the result for both surveys.

The original survey plan was for 200 males and 200 females to be interviewed, and the final results are for 162 males and 185 females. (53 people declined to be interviewed) The age group was from 20 to 49.

The sorting order of poll answers for each question is the same for Persian and English (the sorting order of poll results may be different).

It may take up to 30 min. for polls to update.
http://payvand.com/blog/blog/2010/01/26/iran-regime-change-survey/

[Bill]

Guys,

Some back ground on the University of Maryland WorldPublicOpinion.org back in Sept on the Iranian election. A lot of people, especially regime apologists, are citing this while leaving out one crucial stat. That stat is 27% of of those polled refused to answer. This high number essentially invalidates the findings and the report all but says that. In addition, you have to take into account that those who did answer probably gave an answer the regime wanted due to the fact they were probably listening in.

Thx
Bill

[arash]

you are a bunch of ignorant simple minded group of antidemocrats that cant even take e heavily based survey on its actual points.

Tell me of more surveys that have been done and their results or even better do your own surveys and get back to me with the results. In the meanwhile take care.

And the survey coming from sazegara.net is a joke. Catheringe must be pulling someones leg and just having a laugh about it. A website that doesnt even work and a man who now is working for the US and waiting for the day war breaks out to go in and be the "democratc leader". No information about the survey and nothing. Please tell me catherine that its a joke otherwise I will be disapointed at your intelligence level.

[arash]

"A survey by WorldPublicOpinion.org conducted by means of telephone interviewing by a
research agency outside Iran which used native Farsi speakers as interviewers. This study
was conducted in August 27-September 10, 2009, considerably after the election."

@theali

Outside Iran, that is if you can read.

[Catherine]

@ Arash
You can send your comments and complaints about the Sazegara.net survey to the site that posted it:
http://payvand.com/blog/contact/