UPDATED Middle East Inside Line: Lebanon Warning, Obama on Iran Sanctions, Clash within Palestinian Authority

Lebanon's Warning: On Wednesday, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri warned Israel, "If there is a war against us, there won't be a division in Lebanon. We will stand against Israel. We will stand with our own people." He added: "We see what's happening on the ground and in our airspace and what's happening all the time during the past two months - every day we have Israeli planes entering Lebanese airspace. This is something that is escalating, and this is something that is really dangerous."

Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman responded sharply, "Hezbollah murdered his father (former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, assassinated in 2005 by unknown assailants) and he is in the position of being a hostage."

Israel: A Loose Cannon for a Middle East Conflict?

Clash in Gaza: Responding to two Gaza-made rockets fired into southern Israel on Sunday and Monday, the Israeli Air Force launched missiles into the southern Gaza Strip on Wednesday. A military spokesman said, "The Israel Defense Forces will continue to act firmly against anyone who uses terror against Israel, and we see Hamas as solely responsible for maintaining peace and quiet in the Gaza Strip."


Split in Israeli Cabinet: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman announced Monday that they intend to promote a bill that would let Israeli citizens vote from abroad in Knesset elections. However, Minister of Defence Ehud Barak was quick to criticize his the measure:

I strongly object to granting the right to vote to Israelis living permanently abroad. Only those people who are here with us and who bear the risks and burden of being here should be allowed to vote in Israel.

Obama Proclaims More Sanctions on Iran: President Barack Obama declared last night that a series of sanctions on Iran are to be developed in the coming several weeks, though he could not assure China's support in the UN Security Council.

Palestinian Authority Out in West Bank?: In an interview with The Jerusalem Post, Fahmi Shabaneh, who until recently was in charge of the Anti-Corruption Department in the Palestinian Authority's General Intelligence Service (GIS), warned that Hamas' victory the Fatah-controlled regime in Gaza in 2006-7 is likely to recur in the West Bank. He said that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas had surrounded himself with many of the corrupt officials who used to work for his predecessor, Yasser Arafat, and added: “It’s hard to find people in the West Bank who support the Palestinian Authority. People are fed up with the financial corruption and mismanagement of the Palestinian Authority.”

The PA said on Wednesday morning that Shabaneh's allegations were part of an Israeli conspiracy aimed at undermining Abbas because of his refusal to return to the negotiation table unconditionally.

Middle East Inside Line: Hamas in Russia, Iran FM on "Crazy Israel", Palestine Talks

Hamas in Russia: On Monday, Hamas's Khaled Meshal was in Moscow, a guest of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov despite protests by Israel. Meshal said there was "no prospect of peace because the Israeli leadership is a leadership of war" and added, "It's enough that Moscow tells the world that Hamas is a movement of freedom fighters, not a terrorist group."

Iran FM on Israel "Crazy Nation, Crazy People": Following Ayatollah Khamenei 's statement, "Today Palestine is the symbol of life, determination, faithfulness, diligence, and dignity," Foreign Minister Manchour Mottaki jumped in: "Israel is a crazy nation run by crazy people. Therefore, we must prepare for the chance that Israel will do something crazy against everyone in the region: the Syrians, the Lebanese and the Palestinians."

Israel, Hamas, and Russia: Who is in Bed with the Bear?

Palestinian Authority on Peace Talks: With the leader of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas agreeing in principle to the U.S. proposal to hold talks with Israel, Foreign Minister Riyad al-Malki said Monday that renewed talks with Israel under US mediation must focus first and foremost on the issue of borders.

The talks are expected to begin on February 20, a senior Palestinian official told AFP on Monday. "These contacts will be aimed at creating a better climate and reaching an understanding on the borders of the Palestinian state, and they will begin on February 20. They will last three months, with the Americans negotiating directly with the two sides after determining a timetable and agreed-upon mechanisms for implementation," the official said.

Palestine Document: Abbas Interview "I Will Not Back Down From Demands"

On Sunday, in an interview with Der Spiegel, the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, expressed his disappointment with the Obama Administration, saying that Barack Obama has changed the route of the negotiations by dropping demands for a freeze on Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Abbas said that there was hope for an agreement with Ehud Olmert, but the Israeli Prime Minister had to leave the office earlier due to corruption accusations. Another complication, implied by Abbas, was that Hamas had rejected a Palestinian reconciliation agreement with Abbas' party, Fatah, because of Iran.

Palestine Special: All Along Israel’s West Bank Watchtower

SPIEGEL: Mr. President, the whole world is waiting for you to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for talks. When is this finally going to happen?

ABBAS: That depends on Israel. We Palestinians have always said that we are willing to negotiate, but only if Israel stops settlement construction completely and recognizes the 1967 borders.



SPIEGEL: Why are you standing in the way of talks by setting these preconditions?

ABBAS: They aren't preconditions, but steps that are overdue after the first phase of the international roadmap for peace. Unlike Israel, we have met our obligations: We have recognized Israel's right to exist, and we are combating violent Palestinian groups. The Americans, the Europeans and even the Israelis have acknowledged this.

SPIEGEL: At least Netanyahu has ordered a 10-month freeze on settlements, something no other Israeli prime minister has done. Wouldn't it be your turn now to take a step in his direction?

ABBAS: It isn't a real moratorium, because a few thousand housing units are still being built in the West Bank, and Jerusalem is completely exempted from the settlement freeze.

SPIEGEL: You negotiated with Netanyahu's predecessor, Ehud Olmert, even though settlement construction was continuing without restrictions at the time. Aren't you applying a double standard here?

ABBAS: In a way, yes. But I have asked Olmert to freeze settlement construction every time we met. Besides, Barack Obama was elected president of the United States in the interim. In his speech to the Islamic world in Cairo, he called for a complete freeze on settlements. When the American president does this, I cannot accept anything less.

SPIEGEL: But now Obama is only talking about Israeli "restraint" in building settlements. At his request, you even agreed to a symbolic handshake with Netanyahu in New York.

ABBAS: I was initially very optimistic after Obama won the election. His Middle East envoy, George Mitchell, kept coming to us and promised to urge the Israelis to stop settlement construction completely. Mitchell said that the negotiations would only resume after a moratorium. The American government suddenly backed away from this position in September.

SPIEGEL: Are you saying that it's the Americans' fault that things aren't progressing?

ABBAS: Naturally, I'm not pleased with the Americans' change of course. But I will not back down.

SPIEGEL: What do you expect from Obama?

ABBAS: I still hope that he will revive the peace process. At least he has to convince the Israelis to announce a complete freeze on construction in the West Bank and East Jerusalem for a few months.

SPIEGEL: Apparently the pressure Obama has exerted on Israel until now hasn't been very effective.

ABBAS: It isn't my job to tell the Americans how to deal with Israel. But they have options. They are, after all, the most powerful country in the world. Obama said that a Palestinian state constitutes a vital American interest. The president is under an obligation to apply all of his energy to achieving peace and the vision of a Palestinian state.

SPIEGEL: Could it be that the real reason for the current standstill is that you don't trust Netanyahu?

ABBAS: What he has said so far, at any rate, leads me to question whether he really wants a solution. He has not expressly accepted the two-state solution.

SPIEGEL: In a speech at Bar-Ilan University in June 2009, Netanyahu said: "If the Palestinians recognize Israel as the Jewish state, we are ready to agree to a real peace agreement, a demilitarized Palestinian state side by side with the Jewish state."

ABBAS: You see, he's the one who is setting preconditions. He declares Jerusalem as the "undivided and eternal capital of the State of Israel." He refuses to discuss the question of Palestinian refugees. And he insists that we accept Israel in advance as a Jewish state.

SPIEGEL: But the principle of the two-state solution must mean that the one state is for the Palestinians and the other is for the Jews. Why do you have a problem with recognizing Israel as a Jewish state?

ABBAS: We recognized the State of Israel within the 1967 borders. Whether it defines itself as a Jewish state, a Hebrew state or a Zionist state is its business. As far as I'm concerned, it can call itself what it pleases. But he cannot force me to agree with this definition.

SPIEGEL: Israel wouldn't be Israel without a Jewish majority.

ABBAS: It is a fact that the majority of the citizens of the State of Israel are Jews. But it isn't within my power to define Israel's character.

SPIEGEL: But with such remarks, you create the suspicion among Israelis that you actually hope to eventually overcome this Jewish majority, particularly when you continue to insist that all Palestinians expelled in 1948 have the right of return.

ABBAS: I understand these concerns. Today, there are 5 million Palestinian refugees. I'm not saying that they all have to return, but we need a fair solution. United Nations Resolution 194 ...

SPIEGEL: ... of Dec. 11, 1948 ...

ABBAS: ... states that those who relinquish their right of return must receive appropriate financial compensation for doing so. In other words, the solution has been on the table for 60 years, so what's the problem?

SPIEGEL: Netanyahu's predecessor Ehud Olmert made you the best offer: The establishment of a Palestinian state on far more than 90 percent of the West Bank, a division of Jerusalem and the return of a few thousand refugees to Israel. Why did you reject it?

ABBAS: I didn't reject it. Olmert resigned from office because of his personal problems.

SPIEGEL: You waited too long. If you had accepted, most Israelis would probably have been willing to ignore the corruption charges against Olmert. Former Israeli Foreign Minister Abba Eban once said that the Palestinians never miss an opportunity ...

ABBAS: ... to miss an opportunity. Yes, I'm familiar with the quote. But we did seize the opportunity when Olmert was in office. We negotiated very seriously with him. We exchanged maps showing the locations of the borders. Then he left office. His successor Tzipi Livni lost the subsequent election. So where is the opportunity that we missed?

SPIEGEL: If you had accepted Olmert's offer early enough, it would have strengthened those who support the peace process. Instead, you now have to make do with Messrs. Netanyahu and Lieberman.

ABBAS: That's right. We were in a race against time to reach a solution. But I wasn't the one who thwarted an agreement. Olmert resigned from office shortly before the finish line.

SPIEGEL: Mr. President, the Palestinian camp is deeply divided. Your Fatah movement was unable to prevent Hamas's violent takeover in the Gaza Strip in 2007. How do you intend to guarantee that the same thing won't happen in the West Bank?

ABBAS: We have complete control over the security apparatus in the West Bank. The situation is 100 percent stabile. We will not allow the same thing to happen in the West Bank that happened in Gaza.

SPIEGEL: As long as Hamas controls Gaza, Israel will never agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

ABBAS: We spent two-and-a-half years conducting a dialogue sponsored by Egypt to seek reconciliation. It culminated in a document that we, representing Fatah, signed on Oct. 15, 2009. To this day, Hamas refuses to sign this document.

SPIEGEL: How can reconciliation be possible between the secular outlook of your Fatah movement and the Islamist worldview of Hamas?

ABBAS: We are a people with different religious and political sentiments. Some are extremely religious, some are strictly secular and others are moderate. But we have been accustomed to living together for the past 60 years. All of these movements exist within the PLO.

SPIEGEL: Would Marwan Barghuti, the hero of the second Intifada, who is imprisoned in Israel, be someone who could bring about reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas?

ABBAS: Marwan Barghuti is part of the leadership of Fatah. He is a member of the central committee of our movement. If he were released, it would be very advantageous for us. But not even Barghuti will be able to bring about reconciliation on his own. There is an external reason why Hamas isn't signing the document.

SPIEGEL: You are referring to Iran.

ABBAS: That's what you said.

SPIEGEL: Mr. President, you have announced that you will not run again for the office of president of the Autonomous Authority. Is this an admission that you will no longer be able to make the Palestinian dream of a sovereign state a reality?

ABBAS: That's absolutely correct. The road to a political solution is blocked. For that reason, I see no purpose in remaining president of the Autonomous Authority. And I also have a warning for the world: Do not drive the Palestinians to the point of total hopelessness.

Israel & Syria: Different Political Calculations, Different Conclusions

On Monday, Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak tried to underline the significance of an immediate peace with Syria:

In the absence of a deal with Syria we could reach an armed conflict that could develop into a full-fledged war. As is in the Middle East, immediately after the war we will sit down and negotiate exactly what we have been talking about for the past 15 years.

On Tuesday night, Barak continued his warnings, but this time he emphasized the importance of peace on the West Bank, since failure to reach an agreement with the Palestinians would leave either a state with no Jewish ­majority or an apartheid regime:

As long as in this territory west of the Jordan river there is only one political entity called Israel it is going to be either non-Jewish, or non-democratic. If this bloc of millions of ­Palestinians cannot vote, that will be an apartheid state.

However, the response from Damascus was not what Tel Aviv wanted to hear.


Late Tuesday, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem accused Tel Aviv of  "planting the seeds of war in the region" and warned Israeli officials to "stop playing the role of thugs in the Middle East". He continued:

One day you threaten Gaza, next day you threaten Lebanon, later Iran and now Syria.

Don't test, you Israelis, the determination of Syria. You know that war this time would move to your cities. Come to your senses and choose the road of peace. This path is clear.

Then, Moallem emphasized the possibility of a war in the "south of Lebanon". He said, "No doubt, if we assume that this war would erupt --- and we should not exclude this possibility from an entity established on expansion --- I would say it is going to be a comprehensive war, whether it starts in the south of Lebanon or from Syria."

The response from Damascus comes as Washington appoints diplomat Robert Ford as the first US Ambassador to Syria since 2005. With this favourable wind, Syria has played the more confident party whose demand/pre-condition is the withdrawal of the Israeli presence from the Golan Heights. At a time of stalled indirect talks, it appears that the Syrian Government has decided to ratchet up criticism of Israel. Syrian President Bashar Assad said on Wednesday that Israel is not serious about its intentions to make peace with Damascus as evidenced by "its conduct which is leading the region to war".

In return, the Foreign Ministry of Israel kicked back with a far different tone from that of Barak, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman jumped in:

Assad should know that if he attacks, he will not only lose the war. Neither he nor his family will remain in power.

Our message should be that if Assad's father lost a war but remained in power, the son should know that an attack would cost him his regime. This is the message that must be conveyed to the Syrian leader by Israel.

At the end of the day, Assad's and Moallem's aggressive statements found their double in the Israeli Government. It was not difficult for Lieberman to embed Damascus's recent statements into a security approach that rests on the existence of an "evil". He said:

Whoever thinks territorial concessions will disconnect Syria from the axis of evil is mistaken. Syria must be made to understand that it has to relinquish its demand for the Golan Heights.

Israel-US: Ayalon vs. Livni on Future of the "Special Relationship"

Earlier this week Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon declared that Israel's relations with the United States have "never been better", adding that the ties between the allies go well beyond dealing with the Middle East conflict:

What makes the U.S. special is the fact that it has maintained its good relations with Israel over the years. Its support is not based on the financial pockets of the Arab states.

Everyone is waiting for the Palestinians to come to the negotiating table.

Palestine Special: All Along Israel’s West Bank Watchtower

Not so fast, replied opposition leader Tzipi Livni. She warned the Israeli leadership that the US support should not be taken as granted and then launched into criticism of the Netanyahu Government:

Israel is a state that is threatened in its very neighborhood. Every blow to our relationship with the U.S. can create wide-ranging strategic problems.

The Israeli leadership doesn't understand Israeli interests. We cannot expect the U.S. to defend our interests where this lack of understanding exists. Israel can't request help from the U.S. without giving it the proper tools to do this while facing the international community.