Middle East Inside Line: EU on Dubai Killing, Netanyahu on Iran, Palestine State by 2012?

EU on Dubia Assassination: On Monday, the European Union is expected to issue a statement which will include three key elements: the EU's condemnation of the use of European passports by members of the assassination team, an expression of support for the UAE government and investigators in Dubai, and a commitment to investigate the passport forgeries and theft identities as quickly as possible.

Senior officials from Germany, France, Britain, Ireland, and the EU reportedly met Sunday to agree the language of the statement. Ireland is taking the hardest line among all EU members by demanding that the statement explicitly refer to Israel. However, according to a senior European diplomatic source, the statement will not directly cite Israel, nor is it expected to link Israel with the assassination or the forging of passports.

Meanwhile, a senior EU diplomat said on Sunday that Israel's suspected role in the slaying of a Hamas militant in Dubai and the killers' alleged use of forged EU passports will harm Israel's relations with the European bloc.

Israel Pressure for Sanctions on Iran: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on Monday for an immediate embargo on Iran's energy sector, even without UN Security Council approval:

If the world "is serious about stopping Iran, then what it needs to do is not watered-down sanctions, moderate sanctions ... but effective, biting sanctions that curtail the import and export of oil into Iran.

This is what is required now. It may not do the job, but nothing else will, and at least we will have known that it was tried. And if this cannot pass in the Security Council, then it should be done outside the Security Council, but immediately.

Palestinian Protest over West Bank Lands: Following the government's decision to include some West Bank lands on its list of protected Jewish holy sites, some 100 Palestinian protesters marched to the Tomb of the Patriarchs in Hebron on Monday and clashed with Israel Defense Forces soldiers.

Fatah and Israel on Palestinian State by 2012: After the Franco-Spanish initiative to declare a Palestinian state within two years (which is, for Palestinian Authority leader Salam Fayyad, the time needed for the development of state institutions, economic reforms, and training of Palestinian security forces that would bring law and order to the West Bank), Nabil Sha'ath of Fatah's Central Committee told Ma'an news agency:

We welcome these European declarations, especially those of France, which we consider to have adopted a new attitude amidst the current political stalemate.

The result of Israel's stubbornness and ongoing settlement constriction, confiscation of Palestinian land, the Judiazation of Jerusalem, and the daily oppressions and detentions against the Palestinian people.

However, Israel's response was clear:

An imposed solution will not achieve the goals.

If the European Union will determine the results of the negotiations in advance and promises the Palestinians recognition of a state, they will have no motivation to resume negotiations.

France-Jordan Agreement on Uranium: On Sunday, French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said his country will help Jordan that has close ties with Washington and Moscow concerning its nuclear energy programme realize its nuclear ambitions with the signing of an agreement Sunday to mine its uranium reserves.

Middle East Inside Line: West Bank Lands, Israel in China, Dubai Killing

Netanyahu announced on Sunday that the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron and Rachel's Tomb in Bethlehem (all in the West Bank) would both be added to the list of national heritage sites that the government plans to promote. He said that the rightist religious party Shas persuaded him add the two sites to the list and added:

Our existence depends not only on the IDF or our economic resilience - it is anchored in...the national sentiment that we will bestow upon the coming generations and in our ability to justify our connection to the land.

Following an unproductive Russia visit, a high-ranking Israeli delegation is to leave at the end of the month for Beijing. Both officials will not only talk about the increasing financial cooperation between two countries but also the request for sanctions on Tehran. Haaretz underlines that Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman have not visited China and held no significant talks with Chinese officials on the Iranian issue but have always held meetings with the rest of the 5+1 camp (Russia, USA, Germany, UK, France).

Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri blamed Israel on Sunday for seeking to start a war with Iran and Syria, despite the Arab nations' desire for peace. He said: "Israel can't claim to be interested in the peace process without doing anything tangible in this regard."

The U.A.E.'s minister of state for foreign affairs, Anwar Gargash, urged European investigators to launch full-scale probes into how fraudulent passports were used by a hit squad accused of killing Hamas commander Mahmoud al-Mabhouh.

According to the Sunday Times, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met the hit squad in a Mossad headquarters and in early January authorized the assassination of Hamas commander Mahmoud al-Mabhouh.

Arabian-Persian Gulfs: An Introduction to Iran and the Gulf States

Sean Foley writes for Enduring America:

The news in recent weeks about the deployment of US soldiers and advanced weapons to Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reminds us of the central position of the Arab oil-producing monarchies in the Persian Gulf to international efforts to contain the Iranian nuclear program. Few states in the Middle East have closer links to the two chief actors in the dispute, Iran and the United States, or few would be more negatively affected if Washington attacked Tehran.

Yemen: A Beginner’s Guide to (The Perils Of) Intervention

The six Arab oil-producing monarchies in the Persian Gulf region --- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE --- are known as the Gulf Cooperation Council (or GCC) and have the largest oil and gas deposits in the world. GCC nationals and governments own significant portions of US and European corporations, while Europeans and Americans have invested heavily in the Council's states. The US Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, and the US military maintains a large presence in Qatar and Jebel Ali (UAE), the only port deep enough to berth an aircraft carrier in the Gulf. Finally, GCC states have bought billions of dollars worth of US and European advanced weapons and technology, including French nuclear reactors.


GCC ties with America and Europe in part reflect the history of tensions between the government of Shi'a and Persian-speaking Iran and the much smaller Arab and Sunni states of the GCC. Relations have been especially hampered by the 1979 Iranian revolution, the support of many GCC states for Baghdad during the Iran-Iraq war, and the outbreak of sectarian violence in Iraq. Iran has also threatened to seize GCC territory and to radicalize Shia populations living in the GCC. GCC governments worry that Iran could use nuclear weapons to dominate the Middle East, seal off the chief avenue for transporting oil and gas outside the Gulf (the Straits of Hormuz), or destroy desalinization plants in the GCC. These plants have accounted for as much as 50 percent of the water and electricity in some GCC states and are vulnerable to attack because they are large, utilize complicated machinery, and are built near coasts.

Nonetheless, senior GCC and Iranian officials frequently exchange official visits. Qatar has provided diplomatic support for Iran and its nuclear program at the United Nations and in the GCC. Oman cooperates with Iran in managing the Straits of Hormuz, while Qatar and Iran have jointly developed the North Gas Field, the largest field in the world. Dubai has a sizeable Iranian population and has run a highly profitable re-export trade with southern Iranian ports for decades. Iran has also become a strong market for GCC goods, especially those from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Ultimately, the GCC states will be a key barometer of stability in the Middle East. If the GCC states publicly and consistently side with Washington against Iran, then war may be inevitable. But if the GCC states continue to quietly cooperate with Washington while publicly talking to Tehran, a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear dispute may be attainable.