Iran Video Special (2): Decoding the 22 Bahman Rally in Azadi Square

EA correspondent Mr Verde offers an in-depth reading of this extended clip, filmed during President Ahmadinejad's speech in Azadi Square on Thursday:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxHwpESlpqA[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (12 February): The Day After 22 Bahman

The beginning of the footage, which looks like it is taken from the southeast corner of Azadi Square:


The crowd are quiet and relaxed and it looks as if it is footage from any grassy patch where people would sit and “picnic”. As you can see, it shows people getting comfortable for a long wait. This trying to get comfortable is to the point that a someone (around the 00:38 mark) has used a poster of Khamenei and Khomeini to sit on in order not to get dirt on their trousers. (Remember the "disrespecting of Khomeini's photo" allegation over the demonstrations on 7 December?). This is not a political rally to “gouge out the eye of sedition”, as the regime wants to demonstration. It is a (possibly forced) day out for people and their families. And people are doing their best to cope with it, such as the guy who is fast asleep (around the 1:18 mark) or the kids who are playing football (at the 1:29 mark).

There is very little sign of support for the Government or indeed the regime. For example take note of the lady in chador carrying a photo of Khomeini and Khamenei and looking very serious about it (2:19 mark). She has one person accompanying her. No one else seems to be the least bit interested in making any political or ideological point. The same goes for the van with the sound system on the back (2:38 mark). It is being ignored by almost everyone whom it passes. The only people who are taking serious note of it are two kids who are trying to climb the back of it as a prank. (Also note that the van has red Government plates; Government vehicles are supposed to be used for specific purposes for which they are bought, not carrying sound systems in a rally.)

At the 3:14 mark, a man is selling CDs titled “Green Sedition” for 500 toman (just over $0.50). Presumably its contents try to prove that Mousavi, Karroubi, etc. are enemy agents.

From the 3:27 mark, the footage is from the center of Azadi Square. (The podium is always erected on the north side of Azadi Square, so that the photos and videos of the speeches and military parades have the Alborz mountain arrange in the background. At least this was the original idea, but these days all you see in the background is pollution). Again people are not paying any attention to what is being said. They are just trying to pass the time. As the camera moves from underneath the Azadi monument, you could see a few police officers who are holding private conversations and three Red Crescent first-aid personnel who are standing around idly. You will also see a lot of rubbish on the ground which looks like posters that have been discarded. Again not a sign of support. You will also notice that the general flow of the people is away from the podium and towards Azadi Avenue to the east (later footage will show why this is so).

Notice the Red Crescent first-aid assistant holding a poster of Khamenei (4:24 mark). This is an employee who is told to hold the poster, and this sign of “regime” is ignored by everyone around him. It is in fact being ignored by the sign bearer himself (look how he’s just letting it fall over his shoulder while he holds a conversation at 4:31 mark). Even on the north side and so close to the podium you’ll notice people laying down and taking a nap (5:40 mark).

Take note of the place in his speech where Ahmadinejad is saying that, within the next 5 to 10 years, Iran will become the world’s preeminent power (6:08 mark). This is where people would usually say allah-o-akhbar to support this grand statement (allah-o-akhbar in this case is like a standing ovation is the West). But in this case the crowd around the cameraman is completely silent. It looks like no one was listening to what he was saying, but even when the crowd in the distance (those in front of the podium) breaks out into chants of allah-o-akhbar, the people around the cameraman are completely indifferent. It looks like they just don’t care. The sound of the allah-o-akhbar sounds as if it is coming from several thousand people at best.

From the 6:35 mark the footage is of Azadi Avenue. Again people are just milling around, oblivious to the speech and the task of fighting the sedition. At the 6:40 mark, there seems to be an official (I cannot identify him) surrounded by a handful of people. If the support for the government was high, you’d expect people to gather around him in the thousands and to follow him purposefully, not to rush forward to just take a photo (mind you, if I was there, I too would take a photo to take home and ask friends and family, who is this guy?). Compare this to the way Mousavi, Karoubi, Khatami, etc. are treated by their supporters.

There is a larger crown milling around in between the stalls (7:16 mark onwards), but again the two men with the posters (7:19-7:25 mark) are completely ignored.

The flag at the 7:27 mark is interesting. Even inside the lion’s den, someone has had the courage to cut out the Islamic Republic emblem from the flag, and someone else has had the opportunity to film it on the ground. No one seems to care that an Iranian flag is just thrown onto the ground, and worse still it is missing the Islamic Republic's emblem. There is no sign of zeal or indeed any belief here.

The only sign of interest of the crowd or any energetic activity is close to the buses(7:47), where either street sellers are offering something or something is being given out for free.

I would take this footage seriously. It goes to show the extent to which “supporters” care about the Government and the regime.

Iran Video Special (1): The 22 Bahman Attack on Karroubi?

This is claimed footage of an attack by security forces on an avenue en route to Sadeghieh Square, where Mehdi Karroubi was to join Thursday's rallies:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMx6cEv1aeo[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (12 February): The Day After 22 Bahman

Middle East Inside Line: Gaza Clashes, Israel to Be "Delegitimized"?; Ceasefire in Yemen

Gaza Clashes: Israel Defense Forces soldiers on Friday opened artillery and gun fire on a group of four Palestinians rigging explosives near the Gaza border. Two of Palestinians were killed. Following the incident Hamas's Khaled Meshal, in an interview with London-based Al Hayat newspaper, threatened that a new conflict would not be limited to Gaza.

Israel Tries to Cut Off Gaza Enquiry: The Jerusalem Post has learned that the response Israel gave to United Nations on the investigations it is conducting into Operation Cast Lead seeks to deter UN action.

"Israel feels the report it gave was a serious, comprehensive, credible and complete answer to the UN secretary-general,” one senior official in the Prime Minister’s Office said.


Meanwhile, according to a report by the Reut Institute, a Tel-Aviv-based think tank, Israel is facing a global campaign of delegitimization from demonstrations on campuses, protests when Israeli athletes compete abroad, moves in Europe to boycott Israeli products, and threats of arrest warrants for Israeli leaders visiting London. The think tank called on ministers to treat the matter as a strategic threat.

Blair as Player in Israel-Palestine Talks?: On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that the envoy of the Quartet (the United States, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia), Tony Blair, will "intensify" his work with U.S. negotiator George Mitchell to broker peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians.

Yemen Cease-fire: A new ceasefire between the Yemeni government and northern Shia rebels came into forcetoday.

"We have decided to halt military operations in the north-western region … to stop bloodshed, bring peace to the region, the return of displaced people to their villages, reconstruction and achieve national reconciliation," Yemen's president Ali Abdullah Saleh's office said in a statement.

Iran: 22 Bahman's Reality "No Victory, No Defeat"

At the risk of overloading readers with analysis, I think Pedestrian's snapshot --- with a compelling eyewitness account --- and interpretation deserve full attention. It complements both the "inside Tehran" narrative we have posted and my emerging sense, from other information and analysis, that any "defeat" for the opposition yesterday was a tactical miscalculation rather than the end of the challenge to the Government:

Khordaad 88 has translated numerous eyewitness accounts of today’s demonstrations. We will continue to bring you more in the next few days.

Here is one account:

Iran Analysis: The Regime’s Pyrrhic Victory
Iran: The Events of 22 Bahman, Seen from Inside Tehran
Iran on 22 Bahman: Ahmadinejad “Wins Ugly” (This Time)
The Latest from Iran (12 February): The Day After 22 Bahman

Before the demonstration, we screamed, we shouted: this is such a stupid idea [gathering at Azadi]. We kept arguing that we could not “capture” Azadi Square, and this will only help the enemy. No one listened.



I let a pedestrian get in my car. She was crying. She said they were all on our side, but we did not dare move. They [government supporters] had come from 6 a.m. There was a boy who had a very religious look to him, with a beard and a keffiyeh. He wiped the sweat on his forehead with his keffiyeh, and asked her: “how do you know they were all on our side?” the girl responded between tears: “because they were not repeating the chants heard over the loudspeakers.” And the boy was calling the system every unprintable name under the sun.


I asked: so why didn’t you shout something else?


She said: because there were scores of security forces scattered between us. And besides, you couldn’t tell if the person standing beside you was a government supporter or not.


I asked the boy: so why have you made yourself look like this?


He said: “they told us to. I read so in balatarin.” [the plan was to "look" like government supporters, get in front, and "capture" Azadi Square]


When my wife heard the word “balatarin” she shook her head and I wish I had a keffiyeh too to wipe off my sweat.

——————————————–


Many are talking of whether today was a “defeat” or a “victory” for the greens. Certainly we have to wait some more and observe more, but given what we know … I do not look at events in such terms. What was there that was supposed to be “won” that is now, “lost”? Yes, given the lack of a huge turnout, there will most likely be even more pressure on opposition groups and human rights activists in the following weeks/months … But given where we stand rightnow, this moment, what was really lost? The Iranians inside Iran either chose to stay away from the protests, or could not gather in big numbers, or … But this is the end result. So, if you were an average Iranian who supported the opposition, what would be lost for you?

If you are a student, activist, etc, in Iran today, you have yet to know. And that’s it exactly: we don’t know yet, to be speaking so loudly of defeat and loss.

I am personally not disapointed, because after seeing the incredible turnout for Ashura, I was certain the state was busy preparing for 22 Bahman from the day after Ashura …  They were incredibly surprised that day and they were not going to let it repeat itself, given that it was such an important day for them. It was important to make the opposition look like small groups of eghteshahgar[attention seekers creating disturbance] and to secure the city full force.

Expecting anything else was pure blissful optimism.

Add to that the grave miscalculation by the greens themselves.

I think here is where the diaspora is actually influencing the state in Iran for the worse.

I was at an Iranian salon a few weeks ago. The 57 year old lady who I’ve known for more than a decade now told me: “I have been wanting to go to Iran for two decades now. I am waiting for after 22 Bahman, since the regime will be toppled that day, and then I’m going.”

Really?

I spoke to a traveler agent, a friend of the family, who said that at least a dozen people had called her and told her to make them reservations for Iran – but not to confirm their ticket until 22 Bahman, when they would know that “the regime would be toppled for sure.”

There was a vote on balatarin yesterday where 85% of people (almost 11, 0000 individuals from inside and outside Iran) voted that the greens would “take over” Azadi Square. These thoughts were further amplified by questionable individuals like Mohsen Sazegara who was giving tips on VOA on “what the protesters should do after taking over Azadi”. There were talks about “over 3 million opposition forces” attending the rally. I think this is a perfect example of where the virtual world and the expat community circulates their visions of sugar plum fairies on TV stations … and they have become liability for the movement. When you raise expectation above the real capacity of a movement , that only results in disappointment and despair.

The reality was that after Ashura, today was not going to be an easy day, and, that the greens should have at least made a better plan. Given tight security and the lack of a good plan … this was inevitable.

I think today was more a “reality check” than a “defeat”:

• the state has far more security resources at its disposal than what we’d like to believe


• the state has far more resouces in terms of getting out supporters/call girls/fans/oblivious forced presence/etc than we’d like to think


• we have to think beyond street protests

The Afghanistan Occupation: 700 Military Bases (and Counting)

Nick Turse writes for TomDispatch:

In the nineteenth century, it was a fort used by British forces. In the twentieth century, Soviet troops moved into the crumbling facilities.  In December 2009, at this site in the Shinwar district of Afghanistan’s Nangarhar Province, U.S. troops joined members of the Afghan National Army in preparing the way for the next round of foreign occupation.  On its grounds, a new military base is expected to rise, one of hundreds of camps and outposts scattered across the country.

Nearly a decade after the Bush administration launched its invasion of Afghanistan, TomDispatch offers the first actual count of American, NATO, and other coalition bases there, as well as facilities used by the Afghan security forces.  Such bases range from relatively small sites like Shinwar to mega-bases that resemble small American towns.  Today, according to official sources, approximately 700 bases of every size dot the Afghan countryside, and more, like the one in Shinwar, are under construction or soon will be as part of a base-building boom that began last year.

Afghanistan: Did The Way Forward Come Out of London Conference?

Existing in the shadows, rarely reported on and little talked about, this base-building program is nonetheless staggering in size and scope, and heavily dependent on supplies imported from abroad, which means that it is also extraordinarily expensive.  It has added significantly to the already long secret list of Pentagon property overseas and raises questions about just how long, after the planned beginning of a drawdown of American forces in 2011, the U.S. will still be garrisoning Afghanistan.



400 Foreign Bases in Afghanistan

Colonel Wayne Shanks, a spokesman for the U.S.-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), tells TomDispatch that there are, at present, nearly 400 U.S. and coalition bases in Afghanistan, including camps, forward operating bases, and combat outposts.  In addition, there are at least 300 Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP) bases, most of them built, maintained, or supported by the U.S.  A small number of the coalition sites are mega-bases like Kandahar Airfield, which boasts one of the busiest runways in the world, and Bagram Air Base, a former Soviet facility that received a makeover, complete with Burger King and Popeyes outlets, and now serves more than 20,000 U.S. troops, in addition to thousands of coalition forces and civilian contractors.

In fact, Kandahar, which housed 9,000 coalition troops as recently as 2007, is expected to have a population of as many as 35,000 troops by the time President Obama's surge is complete, according to Colonel Kevin Wilson who oversees building efforts in the southern half of Afghanistan for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.  On the other hand, the Shinwar site,according to Sgt. Tracy J. Smith of the U.S. 48th Infantry Brigade Combat Team, will be a small forward operating base (FOB) that will host both Afghan troops and foreign forces.

Last fall, it was reported that more than $200 million in construction projects -- from barracks to cargo storage facilities -- were planned for or in-progress at Bagram.  Substantial construction fundshave also been set aside by the U.S. Air Force to upgrade its air power capacity at Kandahar.  For example, $65 million has been allocated to build additional apron space (where aircraft can be parked, serviced, and loaded or unloaded) to accommodate more close-air support for soldiers in the field and a greater intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capability.  Another $61 million has also been earmarked for the construction of a cargo helicopter apron and a tactical airlift apron there.

Kandahar is just one of many sites currently being upgraded.  Exact figures on the number of facilities being enlarged, improved, or hardened are unavailable but, according a spokesman for ISAF, the military plans to expand several more bases to accommodate the increase of troops as part of Afghan War commander Stanley McChrystal’s surge strategy.  In addition, at least 12 more bases are slated to be built to help handle the 30,000 extra American troops and thousands of NATO forces beginning to arrive in the country.

“Currently we have over $3 billion worth of work going on in Afghanistan,” says Colonel Wilson, “and probably by the summer, when the dust settles from all the uplift, we’ll have about $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion worth of that [in the South].”  By comparison, between 2002 and 2008, the Army Corps of Engineers spent more than $4.5 billion on construction projects, most of it base-building, in Afghanistan.

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