Iran Analysis (We Told You So): Why the Trial of US Hikers Bauer and Fattal Has Been Postponed

As EA predicted in September, the trial of detained American hikers Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer, scheduled for 6 November, has been postponed.

Officially, Iran's Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei is claiming that the trial could not proceed because of the absence of Sarah Shourd, who was detained with Fattal and Bauer in July 2009 when they were walking along the Iran-Iraq border: "Due to the absence of the third person, the court has delayed the trial time so that in between this time the third person can return to Iran or, in the event of her refusal to appear, her case be dealt with differently."

To be blunt, that is a very thin excuse. The cover for Shourd's release, arranged just before President Ahmadinejad's trip to New York, was that a $500,000 "guarantee" had been lodged that she would return for trial. Whether or not the money was actually placed in the control of Iran, that arrangement pretty much ensured that Shourd would not face further prosecution.

At the same time, the Iranian judiciary --- which objected to Ahmadinejad's plan to let Shourd go and undermined his original intention for a grand ceremony --- saved face by insisting that Fattal and Bauer would face the full force of justice. The problem was that, as in July 2009, they had precious little evidence to bring a case that would hold up under scrutiny.

So Tehran either had to go through with a risky display --- risky both legally and diplomatically, given that Iran is on the cusp of agreeing to resume negotiations with the US on its nuclear programme --- or blink. And today it did the latter.

The political, rather than legal, nature of the decision, was illustrated by the lack of information given to Fattal and Bauer's lawyer, Masoud Shafiee, who said, "It is illogical. If they want to delay the trial, they should announce it in a notification to me or to Sarah Shourd, but they didn't." One of those Iranians, a woman jailed for trafficking defence hardware to Iran, gave a telephone interview to Iran's state-run English language television channel on Monday in which she said she had been tortured.

Today, Iran is putting out its fall-back plan of displaying US injustice, claiming that an Iranian woman held for trafficking in illegal defence hardware is being abused. "They took me to the prison and they started to torture me in every possible way, more especially, you know, mentally," Shahrazad Mir Gholikhan told Press TV.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said that he hoped publicity about the Gholikian case would help secure release of Iranian prisoners in U.S. jails: "Iran will pursue all channels regarding the matter."

Meanwhile, Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer are now in their 16th month of captivity.