An Introduction to Today's US Elections

Over the last few weeks, US Politics correspondent Lee Haddigan has given an introductory course on the US elections to EA readers. Now, for the graduates, he offers a summary of what to look for today in the Congressional and gubernatorial elections:

In a few hours time Americans will go to the polls and decide who will control the next Congress. With 435 elections for the House of Representatives and 37 Senate contests, as well as 37 battles for state Governor, it promises to be a hectic Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Sadly, Scott Lucas turned down my pleas to be sent to the US, all expenses paid, to cover the elections, and a more modest request for a coffee budget to stay awake during the coming marathon was politely ignored. But never fear, for slightly slower than up-to-the-minute breaking news, EA USA is here.

I'll start on the premise that Monday's expert predictions from Monday are a foundation for tonight's results. Those forecasts currently show that  the Republicans will gain a majority in the House of Representatives, but narrowly fail in its attempts to gain control of the Senate; as verdicts begin rolling in about 2200 GMT (6 p.m. on the US East Coast), they will confirm, reject, or modify the projections.

What we are primarily looking for is a nationwide trend. The Republicans can win a majority in the House and gain a few seats in the Senate, but still "lose" the election. If GOP victories do not meet expectations, Democrats will spin the outcome as a defeat for the Tea Party's “No Compromise” message. Alternatively, a resounding Republican landslide would set the stage for a Congress determined to "refudiate" --- the word coined by former Vice Presidential candidate and likely 2012 Presidential runner Sarah Palin --- the agenda of President Obama for the next two years. 

If the Republicans "win small", any obstructionist tactics they employ will be construed as against the will of the people, with serious consequences for their hopes of retaking the White House in 2012. When the next Congress descends into a partisan gridlock, and I cannot see how it will not, then the battle for public sentiment will be fought on the grounds of which party REALLY won the 2010 midterms.

House of Representatives

As of November 1, there are 255 Democrats in the lower house and 178 Republicans (2 seats are vacant). For the GOP to seize a majority, they need to make 40 gains.

Current predictions of losses for Democrats in the mid-50s would give the GOP just over 230 members in the new Congress. Lower than that, and the Republicans will have to explain why their campaign did not meet expectations or what was it about their election message that did not appeal to voters. Higher than 230 seats and the GOP will have a mandate from the electorate to pursue a confrontational approach to the present Democratic Administration.

Senate

There are currently 59 Democratic and Democratic-allied Indepedent Senators and 41 Republicans. The GOP are projected by the experts to pick up another 8 seats, leaving the Democratic/allied bloc with a bare majority of 51-49.

With the present tension in Congress, anything less than a supermajority of the 60 votes needed in the Senate to break a filibuster means a simple majority is not as important as it is in the lower house. But, if the Republicans can manage to force a 50-50 tie, that will be regarded as a monumental victory and bring a PR extravaganza.

A tie, with the casting vote of Vice President Joe Biden, means that Democrats will retain control of the committees that will handicap any Republican reform efforts coming out of the new GOP-controlled House of Representatives. But then who will be portrayed as the obstructionists, or the “party of no,” by an energized conservative media, and by the conservative political organizations?

Of course, a Senate that gives Republicans 51 seats will be a dream result for conservatives.  The President will be unable to initiate any legislation with both chambers of Congress held by Republicans, and we will see an almost automatic use of the Presidential veto of any Republican laws that manage to make it out of the Senate.

Governors

Presently, there are 26 Democrat and 24 Republican governors, with 37 elections being held today. The experts are forecasting 27 wins for Republicans, 12 for Democrats, with 11 races still tossups. Giving the GOP half of those close contests means that they will control 33 states.

Although changes in the state’s executive will have long-term consequences, they are unlikely to shape the national trend. The Colorado election, for instance, bears little relation to the result in Florida or Ohio or California. But they are interesting side notes on a long night and I am intrigued to see the swing to conservative candidates in an election based on the issue of “to spend, or not to spend".

Races to Watch

Usually we rejoice at the geographical and cultural diversity that is the United States of America, but not so much tomorrow. The polls close in different states at different times, and because of voting laws and handling of postal ballots, as in Washington State, we may not know the final result until Thursday or Friday. Luckily, some of the states who finish voting first have races of interest to enliven the early proceedings.

6 p.m. US Eastern Daylight Time (2200 GMT): Kentucky and Indiana

Politicians to watch: Rand Paul, Rand Paul, and Rand Paul.

The Kentucky primary back in May, which saw the upstart Paul defeat the candidate favoured by the Republican establishment, was the first indication the Tea Party might have a major role to play in these elections. No one can be sure when the official result will be called, but when the polls close the large media outlets can begin to release their unofficial data collected on the day.

(Like everyone else, I will be watching in the hope a major network calls it embarrassingly wrong. Who can forget back in 2000 the major networks calling Florida for Al Gore, based on exit poll data, effectively giving him the Presidential election, only to retract their prediction an hour later? Because of the effects of Yeungling beer, I woke up the next day still thinking Gore had won the swing state and could make no sense of why George W. Bush had become the 43rd President.)

A Paul victory, unless it is a landslide, will only signal that the Tea Party campaign possessed the stamina to deliver on its early promise. At this stage no national trend can be predicted with certainty; however, three contests for the House of Representatives will give an intriguing insight into whether the GOP will “win big”. In the Indiana 9^th Congressional District, the Republican holds a 3% lead in what is considered the 41st seat most likely to switch hands. If the Republicans win here,  it is almost certain they will achieve their primary objective of taking control, by adding 40 members, of the House of Representatives.

The Kentucky 6th and Indiana 2nd Districts are worth watching. Two Democrat incumbents hold slight leads in contestsrated by 538 as the 62^ndand 67^th target Republican seats. If the Republicans take both these Districts, it might be time for Democrats to go to go to bed (or swap the coffee for Yeungling at least), as the night promises to be a bloodbath.

7 p.m. EDT (2300 GMT): Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

With no disrespect to the other states, this batch of results is all about Florida. One of the most hotly fought gubernatorial contests is taking place in the state, with a Tea Party-backed candidate tied in the polls with a Democrat. A win for the Republican will show that conservatives can persuade last-minute voters to support their campaign in close races and/or that the undecideds have not voted Democrat en masse at the last minute from fear of what an unknown Republican might do.

If the Tea Party wants to emerge from these mid-terms with the assurance that their “politics as usual is dead” mantra has been approved by the electorate, they must win the Florida gubernatorial contest in tandem with the expected victory of Republican Marco Rubio in the Senatorial race.

Florida also has a couple of interesting Congressional elections. The progressive stalwart Alan Grayson is favored to lose his seat in the Florida 8^th district, but the extent of his defeat will provide some insight into how much the “enthusiasm gap” hurt Democrats. And in the Florida 22^nd District the GOP candidate leads a Democrat incumbent in the 42nd target Republican seat. This result will either confirm the trend for control of the House of Representatives categorically or send us back to the drawing board.

While we are still trying to bring some order to the results from these early states, the polls close at 7.30 p.m. (1130 GMT) in Ohio, North Carolina and West Virginia. There are no less than eight important congressional elections in these 3 states, with the result in the Notrth Carolina's 11^th District standingout. The Democrat holds a 7% lead in the polls in the 84^th most likely seat to change; if he falls, we are looking at an election of unique and titanic proportions for a swing of power.

8 p.m. EDT (0000 GMT): Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, and 16 other states

If Democrats have any hope of overcoming the gloomy predictions about the inevitability of huge losses, then the Senate contest in Pennsylvania is the keystone to their hopes. If Democrat Joe Sestak can manage to overturn all early predictions and beat Pat Toomey, then it might be the turn of Republicans to retire for the night. 

And one congressional election deserves mention. In New Jersey's 3^rd District the Republican holds a lead of 1% over the Democrat incumbent in the 50^th most likely seat to swap party control. Not only is that a symbolic number for the GOP, but the Republican candidate is none other than Jon Runyan – a former American football star whom whom his Philadelphia Eagles fans are proud to note was ranked second dirtiest player in the National Football League by Sports Illustrated in 2006. 

By now information will have become overwhelming. However, around this time, we should have a good clue as to the national trend that will emerge from these mid-terms. For us in Europe, it might be a good time to have a nap and wake up to the results from out West.