Afghanistan: Almost 1 in 10 Winning Parliamentary Candidates Disqualified (Boone)

Jon Boone reports for The Guardian of London:

Almost one in 10 of Afghanistan's victorious parliamentary candidates were disqualified for cheating today after an investigation into widespread fraud during September's election.

Twenty-one candidates were stripped of their win by the electoral complaints commission (ECC) for "irregularities, usage of fake votes and the influence of provincial officials". The disqualifications will heighten tensions in the country with the publication of the final election results only days away.

It is more than two months since Afghans went to the polls for only the second time to elect MPs. The results are likely to dramatically reduce the influence of Pashtuns, the country's largest ethnic group, who have traditionally dominated Afghanistan.

They have lost around 20 seats, with their final tally set to be roughly 90, meaning they will be a minority in the parliament of 249 MPs. Pashtun voters tend to live in areas of high insecurity where many polling stations were unable to open.

The international community had hoped the election would not be as traumatic as last year's presidential poll, which was wrecked by astonishing levels of fraud committed on behalf of President Hamid Karzai.

But almost a quarter of the 5.6m votes cast this time have had to be disqualified in an election that one diplomat described it as "an absolute disaster" because it could lead to a parliament the Pashtuns regard as illegitimate.

Karzai has also talked about the threat to "national unity" and a number of western diplomats fear he could refuse to accept the results.

One foreign official said the Afghan president had even sounded out Yunis Qanooni, the speaker of parliament, about ignoring the results and keeping the current legislature in position. Qanooni denies this claim.

Stefan de Mistura, the UN chief in Afghanistan, has also told fellow diplomats that he is concerned about the risk of Karzai refusing to accept the results.

The Afghan media have already interpreted an attempt by the attorney general to investigate claims that members of the independent election commission were involved in fraud as an effort by Karzai "to beat the IEC into submission" after its head reportedly refused to adjust results.

Both the IEC and the ECC have defended their independence from the state prosecutor, a move De Mistura made a point of publicly supporting.

One senior Afghan official said that Karzai would have to accept the result, but that the final tally of MPs would be massaged to "reflect the realities of Afghanistan".

The country's election bodies appear to have stuck to their guns and today's disqualifications even involved a number of important Karzai allies.

The UN has strongly supported the ECC in its efforts to root out fraud and not be swayed by political pressure.

"We've told them that if you have a political problem you need to find a political solution, not an electoral solution," an official said.

Possible solutions may include the appointment of more Pashtun governors or senators in the upper house.

But Haroun Mir, an analyst and defeated parliamentary candidate, said such an approach would not wash.

"This is the parliament that it meant to represent the nation. If it doesn't then there will be greater ethnic rivalry and Karzai's peace plans will be undermined."

Ghazni province has become a notorious example of how the attempt to run an election in period of widespread insecurity has stored up the potential for serious ethnic tension. In the important Pashtun-majority province, all of the seats have been awarded in preliminary results to candidates from the Hazara minority. That was because insecure areas where polling stations could not open were predominantly Pashtun.