Russia Feature: Renewed Protests Against Putin... But Will the "Dear" Leader Hang On? (Rojansky and Soloveitchik/O'Flynn)

A campaign video by Wake up Russia (@WakeUpR) with citizens holding banners stating their names and calling for fair elections.

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Large protests are anticipated across Russia today, two weeks after tens of thousands took to the streets to demonstrate against alleged election fraud. More than 50,000 activists have signed up to the Facebook page organising the event, The public will behind the protest remains to be seen, however, and Russian media has withheld news of the planned marches and --- in notable contrast to the clamour which met events on 10 December 10 --- so has Western media.

Whilst hopes are strong amongst many protesters and some commentators that these actions may initiate a radical overhaul of the Putin government, Russian analysts remain cautious. Writing for the Carnegie Foundation's Policy Outlook, Matthew Rojansky explores the realpolitik behind the headlines and Western projections. 

At the same time, the passion and social media savvy of many young Russians has proven fertile ground for networks of support to emerge and strengthen. Writing for The Moscow Times, Rina Soloveitchik and Kevin O'Flynn highlight the central battleground of Twitter as a medium for key opposition news and opinion, as well as for regime misinformation and mischief:

The Russian Protests and Putin’s Choices
Matthew Rojansky

You might think Russian president Vladimir Putin can rest easy now. Russia’s new State Duma has been seated despite a wave of popular protests calling for a recount of the December 4 election that gave the ruling United Russia party a renewed majority of 238 out of 450 seats. But it is a much slimmer margin of victory than Putin and party leaders had expected, and it is further tainted by allegations of widespread election fraud. The latest fall guy for this poor performance is Boris Gryzlov, former Duma speaker and leader of the United Russia faction, who resigned from the Duma and will be replaced by another longtime Putin ally, former Kremlin administration boss Sergei Naryshkin.

Of course, the Duma speaker is not and never was a real power broker—that role remains the exclusive purview of Vladimir Putin himself. Yet the Putin system—a “vertical of power” sitting atop a carefully “managed democracy”—is after ten years finally facing significant, perhaps even existential, challenges. Regardless of whether Putin himself defines the terms of change or whether change is thrust upon him by circumstances, it is clear that now for the first time in over a decade, the man and his system will have to open up. Those at the top will have to share their wealth and power with a wider circle of Russians. Yet, even this may prove insufficient to stem the tide of public anger.

Putin’s chances of overcoming the current crisis and hanging onto power are still very good. For more than a decade he has dominated and shaped the Russian political landscape so that few voters recognize or respect any other leading figures much less any genuine opposition. The population is so divided and the opposition so underdeveloped that a Putin victory in March’s presidential election is likely, especially if he is willing to invest real energy in conducting a campaign based on his record of accomplishments....

Despite public protests in the month following the Duma elections that have rivaled the scale of those that brought down the Soviet system, a revolution is unlikely in Russia today. To understand why that is, just consider where key segments of the Russian population stand vis-à-vis Putin and his system.

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Twitter Key to Following New Russian Protests
Rina Soloveitchik and Kevin O'Flynn

You may have heard that tens of thousands of people will protest against election falsifications on Saturday. You probably didn't hear it from state-controlled Russian television, for obvious reasons. Maybe you read it in newspapers or you have been following it in real time on Twitter.

Twitter has become the quickest and sometimes the best medium for finding out about events in Moscow as they happen. During Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's marathon question-and-answer session earlier this week, four of the top 10 trending handles on Twitter were at one point connected to it, most notably #ботокс, or botox, the mocking nickname the opposition have given him in honor of the allegations that he has had plastic surgery.

This did cause some confusion outside the Cyrillic world. One person asked on Twitter whether #ботокс was connected to teenage pop singer Justin Bieber.

The opposition, many from a new generation for whom social media is as natural as breathing, is particularly well-represented in Twitter, but those in power have also taken to the medium — and there are plenty in between.

Where else can you hear the thoughts of a riot policeman in real time? After the Dec. 10 protest, @Omon_Moscow wrote of how the police did not "hate the people" and asked people "don't go crazy!"

Or that Oleg Kashin, a journalist and prominent opposition member, wrote of how his parents called him up the day after his appearance at the Dec. 10 protest, where he read a letter out from Alexei Navalny, the opposition blogger who was then still in jail, and was told off for not wearing a hat. Kashin, who is known for his often profane tweets, did not, of course, use the words "told off."

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