Iran Special: First-Hand from Tehran "The Government Is Finished"

A well-placed Iranian source in Tehran sends this letter through an EA correspondent:

For 21 months friends and family have been exceptionally careful about what they discussed on the phone or email. Yes, they talked about the economy, the high prices and difficulties they were facing. They even talked about the increase in crime --- unknown in our area before --- we have all questioned if this is connected to the economic difficulties.

Then a young unemployed vegetable vendor, Muhammad Bouazizi, set himself on fire and sparked revolutions in Tunisia and then Egypt. The consequences of his actions appear to have broken the last bonds of fear that held my friends’ tongues in silence.

I hear the same thing being repeated: the regime are terrified, divided and thus making very bad decisions. (Bad for them, and their survival!) People are agreed that the arrests of [Mehdi] Karroubi, [Mir Hossein] Mousavi and their wives will only create more enemies for the regime. People who have consistently supported them are now beginning to turn against the regime, saying ‘enough’. Even my contacts [within the regime] are aware that, with every passing day, more and more hardliners are turning against them. One friend told me, “There are too many bosses, but no one is really in control”.

I asked another friend, "What do you want us to do? And what could be done from the outside?" He said:

We don’t want intervention, we want attention. We need the media attention to be on Iran. The more the international community condemns what is happening, the more the international media reports it, the more pressure the regime is under. This will save lives, but we can also see that the more pressure they are under, the more they divide & fight among themselves, and everyone knows that division leads to weakness and fear --- and bad decisions. The arrests of Karroubi and Mousavi are a desperate act.

I was curious to know if those that I knew really believed that change is inevitable. My friend replied, “The Government cannot survive --- but they will not give up easily, this could get even bloodier and much worse, and I don’t know how long it will take, but they are finished.”

The EA correspondent, drawing from this letter and other sources, summarises the signficance:

1. The fear of the regime (in the words of sources in Iran, they are also "deluded" and crazy);

2. The fact that there are too many bosses, and no one in the regime really knows who is in control (I mean no one in the regime knows who is in control!

3. The Iranian people have asked to get the message out that they want the world's media attention. That's it, that's all they want. People even asked specifically to get that message out.