The Latest from Iran (19 February): "The Islamic Republic Does Not Need a Supreme Leader"

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The Latest from Iran (18 February): The Issue is the Economy

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2042 GMT: All-Is-Well Alert. Minister of Economy Shamseddin Hosseini announced today that the economy grew 5.8% in the Iranian year ending 20 March 2011.

Hosseini said growth was 6.1% excluding the oil sector.

The Central Bank of Iran had previously announced that economic growth for 2010/11 was 3.5% including the oil sector, and 4.3% excluding the oil sector.

No explanation is given as to why Hosseini was putting out figures almost a year old, rather than more recent data on the economy.

1956 GMT: Press Watch. The managing editors of Roozegar daily and Nurses Society magazine have been found guilty of "publishing false news".

1709 GMT: Shutting Down the Clerics. Ahmad Montazeri, the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, has said that the entrances to his residence to the late Grand Ayatollah's Residence and Library have been sealed on the orders of a Special Clerical Court.

Grand Ayatollah Montazeri was once the heir-apparent to Ayatollah Khomeini but was ostracised in the late 1980s and eventually put under house arrest.

1659 GMT: CyberWatch. Minister of Communications Reza Taghipour announced Saturday, a conference on cyber-defence, that the launch of the “national internet”, scheduled for February, has been postponed to June.

Analysts have claimed that the national internet is more of an intra-net, trying to detach Iranian users from the World Wide Web.

Taghipour said the current system is not safe: “Today we witness that the internet is used and exploited as a forceful tool in the coloured revolutions.” He alleged that Google turns over all its information to the CIA.

1655 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An activist reports that the Tabriz Court of Appeals has sentenced lawyer Houtan Kian to six years in prison.

Among Kian's clients is Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death for adultery. Kian was seized in October 2010 as he was giving an interview to two German journalists, who were detained and freed after four months.

1625 GMT: Economy Watch. Two stories on Iran's economic situation catch the eye.

Reuters features a series of interviews with people in Tehran, "Iranians Desperate as Dark Economic Clouds Gather":

Instead of thinking about the forthcoming elections, many Iranians are preoccupied with finding ways to minimize their suffering and maximize their resources. For the young, educated middle classes that means finding a way out of Iran.

Reza's goal is to reach France. "I don't want to have a child here," said the 30-year-old accountant as he stood in line at the French embassy in Tehran. "Any minute I can become jobless. There is no hope for me and my wife here.

"I just want to get out. I'll even work in McDonald's."

Hamed Hashemi has a similar goal, to go to Canada.

"I have a good salary but I can't do anything with it, said the 31-year-old marketing manager as he discussed the significant increase in house prices in recent weeks. "Even if I save all my income, it would take a lifetime to buy a house."

Kamyar has already obtained his visa for Norway, where he has received an offer to study at university. "What do I have to lose?" said the 26-year-old computer engineer. Without my parents' support, I can't manage myself, let alone getting married."

In a CNN overview of the effect of sanctions on trade and shipping, this passage stands out:

Take Iran's huge appetite for steel. Normally, it imports about 300,000 tons of steel products a month from Russia alone, mainly for infrastructure and construction. "Now it's zero. It really is that bad," said Katya Ourakova, who follows the Russian steel industry for Platts Steel Business Briefing.

Ourakova says that Russia, the main exporter of steel to Iran, has been exploring ways to get round the financing problems. In December, she said, "Russian and Iranian trade envoys were discussing a ruble scheme, but so far nothing has been finalized."

Then there is this note: "This month, at least two cargoes of Iranian crude were sitting at the Sidi Kerir terminal in Egypt, but no one wanted to handle them for fear of falling foul of European sanctions, according to the leading industry publication Platts."

1605 GMT: Significant and Not-So-Significant Watch. Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, at a press conference today, pointed towards the resumption of talks between Iran and the "5+1" Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia) on Tehran's nuclear programme "as soon as possible", saying that Iran was looking for a "win-win" situation. He said that the talks would take place in Turkey.

The resumption of the talks continues to be drowned out by other chatter, however. Al Jazeera English summarises the fuss over the docking of two Iranian warships, ostensibly to train the Syrian Navy, at Syria's port of Tartous --- other media have focused on the passage of the ships through the Suez Canal, but interestingly, no one seems to remembers that they also stopped at Saudi Arabia, usually portrayed as Iran's staunch rival:

1449 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The mother of journalist and blogger Parastou Dokouhaki, detained last month, has complained that harsh conditions in solitary confinement have weakened her daughter after 35 days.

The reason for the detention of Dokouhaki, one of the earliest bloggers in Iran, is still unknown.

1443 GMT: Bank Fraud Watch. As the first trial in the $2.6 billion bank fraud opened on Saturday, the regime's focus was on the 32 defendants. Tehran's newspapers have a different perspective, however: they are claiming the involvement of three ministries --- Industry, Roads, and Economy --- in the fraud through officials' acceptance of large bribes.

1435 GMT: Currency Watch. Peyke Iran claims a nasty shock for Iranian pilgrims going to Saudi Arabia: the Saudi Rial has trebled in value versus the Iranian currency, moving from 320 to 1000 Toman, within a week on the "unofficial" market, and the pilgrims did not receive foreign exchange at the "official" rate at the airport.

1320 GMT: Oil Watch. The Ministry of Oil has declared that Iran has stopped selling crude to British and French companies.

"Exporting crude to British and French companies has been stopped....We will sell our oil to new customers," spokesman Alireza Nikzad said on the Ministry's website.

Tehran has threatened to suspend shipments as pre-emptive retaliation for the European Union's decision on 23 January to suspend Iranian oil imports from 1 July.

The move means little in practice. Britain does not import Iranian oil, and the French oil company Total SA stopped purchases from Tehran in late 2011.

Far more significant would be an Iranian cut-off of supplies to Greece, Spain, and Italy, all of whom import at least 14% of their needs from Tehran.

1054 GMT: Oil Watch. An interesting snapshot of the manoeuvres around a possible cut-off of Iran's oil exports, with the European Union planning a ban from 1 July and Tehran threatening a pre-emptive suspension to hit Europe's most vulnerable economics. From Business and Economy Digest:

Spain has arranged to replace the 15% of its crude supplies that typically comes from Iran with alternative suppliers in case the Islamic state halts crude exports, Industry Minister Jose Manuel Soria said.

Soria told a business conference in Madrid, Spain was currently importing less than 15% from Iran but gave no details on amounts.

"The most important operators in Spain have advised me they have contracts ready and supplies are guaranteed," he said. "I hope prices will not escalate, but we shall be watching out."

On Wednesday, Soria told Spanish state television that Spain's two largest oil refiners, Repsol and Cepsa, had arranged alternative supplies mainly from Saudi Arabia, Russia and, to a lesser extent, Iraq.

Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Garcia Margallo said Spain's ambassador in Iran had told him Tehran had not suspended crude exports.

"[The regime has] said to him and the ambassadors of France, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Ireland that Iran is demanding three conditions," Garcia Margallo said during an official visit to Algeria.

He said the conditions were payment guarantees, that Iran would not accept short-term deals but wanted contracts for three to five years, and finally a waiver on exercising the force majeure clause in case contracts were rescinded.

1026 GMT: Oil Watch. Aftab reports that the National Iranian Tanker Company has managed to free five oil tankers seized by a French firm because of non-payment and has prevented the seizure of 11 others.

1009 GMT: Sedition Watch. Mahmoud Farshidi of the Unity Front has put out the campaign announcement that the enemy plans to cause unrest in small cities during the elections.

0937 GMT: Economy Watch. Farhad Parvaresh, the head of Iran Air, has said the airline has had an increase in costs of 30% in the last three months because of currency fluctuations and bank sanctions.

0931 GMT: Currency Watch. The deputy head of the Central Bank has said that the bubble in the price of gold coins was "not approved by us" and that the Bank "will launch plans 4 more oversight".

The cost of gold almost doubled in Iran over the winter but has fallen back about 20% after the Bank raised interest rates in January.

0901 GMT: CyberWatch. A number of Western outlets noted the statement by a Ministry of Intelligence official that the Stuxnet virus, allegedly launched in 2010 to hinder Iran's nuclear programme, affected 16,000 computers.

Equally interesting, however, was the follow-up by the official: the computers cannot be "cleaned" because sanctions prevent Iran from buying anti-virus software.

0858 GMT: Protest Watch (Syrian Front). Iranian expatriates have sent a letter of appreciation to the Syrian National Council, a leading opposition group, for its supports of 25 Bahman (14 February) protests in Iran.

0855 GMT: Interrogation Watch. In a letter to the Supreme Leader, Rouhollah Zam, the son of one of a former top official, has accused Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi of interrogating him in prison and has claimed that detainees were tortured.

0850 GMT: Economy Watch. Rah-e Sabz claims that official reports put the number of unemployed in 2010-11 at 3.5 million. At the start of the Ahmadinejad Government in 2005, the figure was 2,675,000.

0844 GMT: Elections Watch. Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of the Expediency Council and 2009 Presidential candidate, has positioned his faction in the Parliamentary elections with the declaration, "The front of principlists is at the end of its life, like reformist parties, even though the ideologies of both of them will remain."

Rezaei called for televised debates for the elections, while taking a firm stance on "a very important era in the history of our country in which the new method of the West is to confront us".

Rezaei said that, even though he had objections about the result in the 2009 election, he "respected the law" after the vote's confirmation by The Guardian Council. Meanwhile, he had "serious criticisms" about former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who "could have acted better" after the election.

Rezaei, a former head of the Revolutionary Guards, also had some bad news: he predicted that sanctions would continue for at least five more years.

0828 GMT: Politics and the Supreme Leader. Former MP Emad Afrough, who raised eyebrows last month when he said people should be able to question the Supreme Leader, has again criticised the Government: "Unfortunately today there is a gap between morality and politics. Many of our politicians have stepped upon Islamic and humanitarian moralities."

Afrough continued, "Some of the people in charge are lying about following and respecting the Supreme Leader. But in fact they want to benefit by doing so."

Hojatoleslam Sayed Abbas Nabavi, at a weekly meeting of the Ansar Hezbollah organisation, has declared the need for high participation in the Parliamentary elections while calling for loyalty to the Supreme Leader: "If [Mir Hossein] Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi had accepted Ayatollah Khameini’s view, they would not be in their current situation."

0649 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kalameh reports that Mehdi Khazali, the imprisoned physician and blogger who has been on hunger strike for 43 days, was removed from Taleghani Hospital at 2:00 a.m. this morning by agents and taken to an undisclosed location.

Activists said Khazali, serving a 14-year prison sentence, suffered heart complications this weekend because of his fast.

0644 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. In an interview with Deutsche Welle, Ahmad Montazeri, the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, has complained about reformists who did not care 4 his brother when he was in jail. Montazeri also warned officials to reform the prison system, else they would face the possibility of regime change.

0640 GMT: Economy Watch. Kalemeh claims that the continuing weakness of the Iranian currency has led to a 10% rise in the price of housewares within a week.

0625 GMT: After a slow Saturday for news from Iran, we start today with this provocative line, "The Islamic Republic does not need a Supreme Leader."

That declaration reportedly did not come from a member of the Green Movement, from an opposition figure, or from Mir Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi, both shut away in their strict house arrests. Instead, according to the opposition website Rah-e Sabz, the words were those of President Ahmadinejad last spring, after he and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei clashed over control of the Ministry of Intelligence.

Given the outlet for the report, and its unnamed sources, it is best to treat this as a rumour. Still, it's a reminder of the seriousness of the recent conflict between the President and the Supreme Leader --- Ahmadinejad boycotted his duties for 11 days in protest. And, even if the two men are not taking each other on directly at the moment, the story is a pointer to the intensity the political competition between their camps in the run-up to the Parliamentary elections on 2 March.