Remember Iran Flashback: Four Scenarios for a Vote Recount (16 June 2009)

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Ahmadinejad’s lead would almost certainly be cut, and the election would appear much more competitive, but he would still win outright. This would still ask some tough questions as to why the President’s majority was initially so huge and would probably still require some scapegoats.

This result would obviously not convince many core opposition supporters. Their reaction, however, could swing in one of two different directions.  They could feel that, even with a re-confirmed Ahmadinejad victory, this unprecedented enquiry means the establishment can be pushed further. On the other hand, they could feel that they have reached the limits of what they can achieve. Meanwhile, the political establishment could see this gesture as their final offer and then crack down hard on any further opposition.

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Remember Iran Flashback: 16 June 2009 --- A Compromise by the Regime?

Wounded Protester, 15 June 20092220 GMT: Politically, the evening highlight appears to be the Supreme Leader's meeting with representatives of the four Presidential campaigns, calling for them to join together for "national unity". The move seems to be more of an attempt to buy some more political time while the Guardian Council tries to sort out its options --- all candidates will have been told of the necessity to keep demonstrations non-violent and non-threatening to the regime.

Elsewhere, chatter about gatherings has died down (it is, after all, 3 a.m. in Iran), so the hope is that there will be none of the violence that was feared earlier today.

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Remember Iran Flashback: 15 June 2009 --- The March of the Millions

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EA's Live Coverage three years ago today --- the world is taken by surprise as more than a million Iranians, joined by Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, take to the streets of Tehran to challenge Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's supposed election. However, there are signs that the regime will defy the protesters and confirm Ahmadinejad's "victory", and there is ominous news of more detentions and deaths of demonstrators at the end of the evening:

2230 GMT: The end of a long and, for many, amazing day in Iran with the hopes of the mass movement balanced by rumours of deaths, beatings, and detentions (one activist writes of many people being taken to Evin Prison). Still a state of tension, with uncertainty over casualty figures from this afternoon at Azadi Square and no firm confirmation of the big march for 5 p.m. tomorrow (local time) in Tehran. Tonight, there are sounds of ambulances and police sirens and occasional gunshots.

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The Latest from Iran (15 June): Politics and Corruption

Nikahang Kowsar;s Ahmadinejad promises, "I will disclose the source of corruption," to which the Supreme Leader asks, "Will you please stop this?"

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Remember Iran Flashback: 15 June 2009 --- The March of the Millions
The Latest from Iran (14 June): Tough Talk Based on Bad Economics

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1005 GMT: Prisoner Watch. Dissident filmmaker Mohammad Reza Nourizad was arrested on Thursday and released after 12 hours in solitary confinement.

Nourizad was imprisoned for several months for letters he sent to the Supreme Leader. An activist sees the latest detention as a punishment for the filmmaker's remarks on a Voce of America broadcast.

0935 GMT: Oil Watch. The Japanese legislature's lower house has passed a bill to provide government guarantees on insurance for tankers carrying Iranian oil, mitigating the effect of European sanctions beginning 1 July.

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The Latest from Iran (14 June): Tough Talk Based on Bad Economics

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Remember Iran Flashback: "The Obama Administration Fails to React" (14 June 2009)
Remember Iran Flashback: 14 June 2009 Live Coverage --- "More than 100" Arrested as Greens Prepare Rally
The Latest from Iran (13 June): The Reformists and the Next Election

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Supreme Leader Addresses MPs, 13 June1515 GMT: Suppressing the Lawyers. Shadi Sadr summarises the regime's efforts to curb activism and dissent through intimidation and imprisonment of attorneys:

Between June 2009 and July 2011 at least 42 lawyers were arrested and at least 7 lawyers were forced to leave the country. Mohammad Ali Dadkhah was recently sentenced to 9 years' imprisonment and a 10 year ban on practicing law. The security officials have told him that either he will give a televised interview in which he will state that he was given money by foreign governments for defending his client or he has to go to prison....

Harassing the lawyers is not limited to their detention and sentencing. Most of the lawyers who have been detained are repeatedly questioned for having defended their clients. They are summoned and interrogated by security forces in short intervals. Many have been forced to promise not to give interviews to the media regarding the conditions of their clients. For this reason, methods of providing information regarding the conditions of the political prisoners are being blocked more and more every day. Some of the lawyers are told that they cannot accept political case files. For this reason, many prisoners of conscience are deprived of their right to a defense, prescribed by the Iranian constitution.

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Remember Iran Flashback: "The Obama Administration Fails to React" (14 June 2009)

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Vice President Joe Biden, 14 June 2009: "Our interests are the same before the election as after the election"

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In contrast to the drama unfolding on the streets of Iran, the key non-event outside the country is the lack of reaction from the Obama administration. Contrary to the position taken by the Bush administration in cases from the Ukraine to Georgia and Lebanon, there will be no welcoming or encouraging of a velvet revolution in Iran. The Obama administration is, instead, preparing itself to deal with whoever emerges as president. Despite the protestations of Mir-Hossein Mousavi's supporters, this will almost certainly be the incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. While the United States would have strongly preferred to be dealing with a Mousavi administration, the basic strategic and political rationale for US-Iranian rapprochement remains unchanged.

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The Latest from Iran (13 June): The Reformists and the Next Election

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Remember Iran: An EA Special --- Three Years Ago Today, The Protests Begin
Remember Iran Flashback: Text of Mousavi Letter to His Supporters (13 June 2009)
Remember Iran Flashback: 13 June 2009 --- EA's Live Coverage Begins
The Latest from Iran (12 June): Three Years Ago Today

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1710 GMT: Economy Watch. Asr-e Iran has warned against unauthorized withdrawals from the Foreign Exchange Reserve, claiming the remaining amount is as small as $35 billion.

1610 GMT: Supreme Leader Watch. Another sound-bite from Ayatollah Khamenei's call for a cease-fire between Parliament and President (see 1327 GMT):

This does not mean that everybody should think in the same way…but it should be crystal-clear that despite different opinions and tastes, [all] officials are united and are proceeding in the direction of the country’s progress and the realization of the [Islamic] Revolution’s objectives.

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The Latest from Iran (5 June): The House Arrests

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The Latest from Iran (4 June): The Supreme Leader's "Slap in the Face" for His Officials

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Mehdi Karroubi with family on Monday1425 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Ali Akbar Velayati, the Supreme Leader's advisor on foreign affairs, has reiterated Tehran's general line two weeks before discussions in Moscow with the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia): "I hope the P5+1 group recognizes Iran's inalienable nuclear right within the framework of the NPT and refrains from sitting on the sidelines. By accepting Iran's right to use peaceful nuclear energy, the forthcoming talks in Moscow should reach a favorable result."

What is not established, beyond this declaration, is whether Iran is ready to give up enrichment of uranium of 20% on its soil and, if so, in return for which concessions by the "West".

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The Latest from Iran (4 June): The Supreme Leader's "Slap in the Face" for His Officials

Head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, and President Ahmadinejad at Sunday's ceremonies for the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's death

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The Latest from Iran (3 June): The Regime Marks Khomeini's Death

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1950 GMT: Death-to-the Rapper Watch. Forty authors of the Rah-e Nikan religious publishing house have promised to forward royalties from their books to whoever kills rapper Shahin Najafi.

Najafi has been targeted by clerics, politicians, and pro-regime activists since he released "Naqi", a song critiquing Iranian politics and society, in May. His critics claim Najafi has dishonoured the name of Naqi, Shi'a's 10th Imam.

1940 GMT: Surveillance Watch. MTN Irancell, a joint venture between MTN Group Ltd of South Africa and an Iranian government-controlled consortium, has obtained sophisticated U.S. computer equipment despite sanctions.

MTN Irancell sourced equipment from Sun Microsystems Inc, Hewlett Packard Co, and Cisco Systems Inc through a network of technology companies in Iran and the Middle East.

Reuters reported in March and April that ZTE Corp, a Chinese telecom-equipment maker, had sold or agreed to ship millions of dollars worth of U.S. hardware and software since 2010 to Iran's largest telecom carrier, Telecommunication Co of Iran.

Paul Norman, MTN Group's chief corporate affairs officer, said: "To the best of our knowledge, MTN personnel, directly or indirectly, did not acquire or seek to acquire equipment for use in Irancell's operations in a manner that was intended to avoid or circumvent U.S. sanctions. MTN is committed to compliance with U.S. sanctions, and is working with the U.S. government and its international legal counsel to remain compliant. MTN owns a non-controlling 49% share in Irancell."

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The Latest from Iran (3 June): The Regime Marks Khomeini's Death

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The Latest from Iran (2 June): Holding the Currency Line

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1631 GMT: No Afghans, Please. The National Organization for Educational Testing has issued a list of university courses banned for Afghans living in Iran, including atomic physics, nuclear engineering, aerospace engineering, chemical engineering, and military sciences.

Mehr explains that allowing Afghans to gain qualifications in these areas would create the obligation to employ them.

The news agency also writes that Afghans can apply only at universities that are not located in areas where they have been banned from living, including a dozen provinces and a number of cities throughout Iran.

1611 GMT: Oil Squeeze. An article in The New York Times, "Oil Output Soars as Iraq Retools", notes the significance for sanctions and Iran:

Increased flow and vital port improvements have produced a 20 percent jump in exports this year to nearly 2.5 million barrels of oil a day, making Iraq one of the premier producers in OPEC for the first time in decades.

Energy analysts say that the Iraqi boom --- coupled with increased production in Saudi Arabia and the near total recovery of Libya’s oil industry --- should cushion oil markets from price spikes and give the international community additional leverage over Iran when new sanctions take effect in July.

“Iraq helps enormously,” said David L. Goldwyn, the former State Department coordinator for international energy affairs in the Obama administration. Even if Iraq increased its oil exports by only half of what it is projecting by next year, he said, “You would be replacing nearly half of the future Iranian supply potentially displaced by tighter sanctions.”

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