Hossein Ronaghi MalekiI am of the belief, every human being’s silence against oppression and injustice is a betrayal of the innocent blood of the martyrs of this land....
I will repeat a quote from the Exalted Prophet Mohamad: “The land and government will survive under blasphemy but will not last under oppression.”
President Ahmadinejad and former President Rafsanjani enter the first session of the new Parliament todaySee also The Latest from Iran (26 May): Propaganda Watch
1825 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Earlier today (see 0635 GMT) we had noted the defiant stance of the head of the atomic energy organisation, Fereydoun Abbasi, that the International Atomic Energy Agency would not be allowed to inspect the Parchin military site. This, we suggested, was a major step back from possible accomodation over Iran's nuclear programme, given that IAEA head Yukiya Amano had said only a week ago that an agreement over inspections was imminent.
Western media, however, are focusing on another section of Abbasi's comments on State TV, namely that Iran is standing on its right to enrich uranium to 20% on its soil: "“We have no reason to retreat from producing the 20 percent because we need 20 percent uranium just as much to meet our needs."
We are not so struck by the remark. Abbasi has been a "hard-liner" in the past --- in contrast to, for example, President Ahmadinejad --- on the level to which Iran can enrich.
Today's comment should be seen more as a re-assertion by the regime of a tough negotiating position after the failure to get any advance, and indeed signs of a retreat, on a deal at last week's Baghdad talks. Iranian officials blame the situation on the initial proposal put by the 5+1 Powers, which did not explictly recognise Iran's right to enrich and which offered no significant gesture on sanctions.
Nikahang Kowsar on "time" and the Supreme Leader after the Baghdad nuclear talks
See also Iran Analysis: 4 Lessons of The Baghdad Nuclear Talks...And What's Next
Iran Document: Statement By EU's Catherine Ashton After Baghdad Talks
The Latest from Iran (24 May): Day 2 of the Nuclear Talks in Baghdad
1803 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Journalist Scott Peterson has a telling follow-up quote from an Iranian diplomat who was speaking with him throughout the Baghdad talks, "I think [they were] a complete failure, in terms of content. The more they talk, the worse it gets."
Peterson's description makes clear that a tough opening proposal by the 5+1 Powers did not include a reference to easing of sanctions or a recognition of the level of enrichment that would be acceptable inside Iran.
The drawing that "proves" Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons --- a "high-explosives containment chamber" at the Parchin military site
2011 GMT: All-Is-Well Alert. Iran's Statistical Center has said that in the Iranian year ending on 19 March, the jobless rate fell 1.2% to 12.3%.
The Center said that by March 2013, the government plans to reduce unemployment rate to 7%, investing around $200 billion to create one million jobs a year. It added that by 2015, the Government may send nearly 100,000 Iranians to work abroad.
1948 GMT: Nuclear Watch. We have expected back-channel discussions between the public resumption of talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, Germany, France, China, and Russia) in Istanbul in mid-April and the next meeting in Baghdad on 23 May. Laura Rozen offers confirmation:
The European Union’s Helga Schmid and Iran’s Ali Bagheri held meetings in Geneva May 6-7, a diplomatic source [said].
The deputy nuclear negotiators for the P5+1 and Iran respectively are due to hold a second meeting this week, but I’ve been asked to hold off reporting the date and location as negotiators are seeking to minimize publicity for the preparatory talks. Schmid and Bagheri are meeting to prepare the agenda for the next round of Iran nuclear talks due to be held May 23rd in Baghdad.
Western negotiators have made clear that when it comes to the exceedingly sensitive Iran nuclear negotiations process, they believe more can be accomplished in such quiet meetings.
But notable as well is the fact that no scuttlebutt from the first known face-to-face talks between Schmid and Bagheri since Istanbul has leaked from the Iranian side, as has occurred in many similar past cases. That may be a sign of Tehran’s efforts to maintain the positive atmosphere and a modicum of trust and goodwill that was established at the last round of talks in Istanbul last month.
The lead U.S. negotiator with the P5+1 group, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman, did not participate in the Schmid-Bagheri discussions this past week, I was told. But American officials have made clear that she is open to do so — and that they have zero plans to advertise it if and when she does.
2020 GMT: Sanctions Watch. For weeks, we have questioned public proclamation of India defying sanctions and increasing oil shipments from Iran, arguing that private discussions were weaning Delhi off Tehran's crude with assurances of alternative supplies.
Confirmation comes today in the report that India's oil imports from Tehran fell about 34% in April compared with March.
Reflecting the Government-to-Government talks between Washington and Delhi, including a visit by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton this week, State-run buyers are at the forefront of reductions, leaving privately-owned Essar the biggest Indian client of Iran.
India's total oil imports from Iran in April fell to about 269,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 409,000 bpd in March and from about 449,000 bpd in April 2011.
Official Book Fair and Unofficial Books
The annual International Book Fair of Tehran opened on 1 May and will continue to the 11th, even as the list of forbidden books grows. Authorities collect “illegal copies", sometimes turning them into paper paste (recounted in our review of 23 April). Meanwhile, a shadow book fair has sprung up featuring the forbidden texts.
Larijani (left) and Haddad Adel (right)The political outcome of the Parliamentary elections may be a "mish-mash", with the Supreme Leader as the likely victor in his ability to control the legislature as well as the President, but the first battle of the new Majlis is shaping up --- and it's not directly about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Current Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, despite his allegiance to Ayatollah Khamenei, faces a serious challenge for his position. Unsurprisingly, his challenges to the Government have aroused the animosity of Ahmadinejad supporters, and he now has to contend with the alternative of Gholam Ali Haddad Adel --- former Speaker of Parliament, officially the top vote-getter in Tehran's Parliamentary ballot, and a member of the Supreme Leader's inner circle (his daughter is married to Khamenei's son Mojtaba).
An Iranian correspondent for EA surveys the situation....
See also Iran Caption Competition: The Supreme Leader Looks at a Book
The Latest from Iran (6 May): After the Election
1935 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Senior reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh, serving a six-year prison sentence, has responded to new Revolutionary Guards charges against him. The former Deputy Minister of Interior said, "I will not appear in court before my complaint against [Ayatollah] Jannati is accepted."
Tajazadeh has accused Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, of involvement in the manipulation of the 2009 Presidential election.
1915 GMT: The Battle Within. Only 72 hours after the conclusion of the Parliamentary elections, the Government's critics have resumed their attack. MP Ali Motahari --- his own position secured after victory in the Tehran ballot --- has said that the attempt to impeach Minister of Labor Abdolreza Sheikholeslami could resume on Tuesday.
Sheikholeslami is under fire because of his defence of controversial Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi.
Meanwhile, Rah-e Sabz reports that, in an effort to retain Mortazavi, the Government has paid off a 35 billion Toman (about $28.5 million) debt to the Social Security Fund.
Mortazavi, criticised for his role as Tehran Prosecutor General during the abuses and killings in the Kahrizak detention centre in summer 2009, was named head of the Fund earlier this year.
The Supreme Leader visits the 25th Tehran International Book Fair, but what is the caption?
There is an important conclusion to be drawn from Friday's outcome, but it is only a reiteration of what we noted after the first round two months ago, not in the overwhelming victory of a faction, but in the lack of one: "While the Islamic Republic's system is far too complex to reduce it to the plaything of the Supreme Leader, "stability" --- if not legitimacy --- lay in an arrangement in which he and his circle could be assured that they would not face trouble from a President, Parliament, or judiciary."
Tuesday, May 29, 2012 at 8:14