It has never been the case that the Supreme Leader's approach to nuclear politics has been separate from his politics at home. And, with that recognition, it is only one step to the conclusion that his position on talks with the US and its allies is linked to "legitimacy", not in those foreign powers but in the eyes of his people.
See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society, from the Elections to Abuses to a "Documentary"
Iran Snap Analysis: The Election --- Still Confusing, Still Muddled
Iran Opinion: The Hunger Strike of Mehdi Khazali
The Latest from Iran (6 March): Is Ahmadinejad in Trouble?
2133 GMT: Drumbeats of War Watch. The Associated Press, in a story eerily reminiscent of claims in February 2003 that Iraqi trucks were clearing up suspected site of weapons of mass destruction, reports:
Satellite images of an Iranian military facility show trucks and earth-moving vehicles at the site, indicating that crews were trying to clean it of radioactive traces possibly left by tests of a nuclear-weapon trigger, diplomats told the Associated Press on Wednesday.
Two of the diplomats said the crews may be trying to erase evidence of tests of a small neutron device used to set off a nuclear explosion. A third diplomat could not confirm that but said any attempt to trigger a so-called neutron initiator at the Parchin site could only be in the context of trying to develop nuclear arms.
The images, provided to the IAEA by member countries, are recent and constantly updated, said one of the diplomats.
The diplomats are nuclear experts accredited to the International Atomic Energy Agency, and all asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive information.
A year ago, at the height of the conflict between the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad --- marked by the fight to control the Ministry of Intelligence, and culminating in the President's defeat and an 11-day boycott of his duties --- we assessed that Ahmadinejad was now a "lame-duck" occupant of his office. He would not be removed, as this was cause instability and more in-fighting over the issue of who would replace him, but he would be contained and constricted by his rivals and the Supreme Leader's office.
And so it goes. The President will serve out the last year of his term, with more pressure put on those around him, such as Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. But he is unlikely to do more than put out his rhetoric and proclaim the myth of his legacy.
The bigger question, for example, is whether the Supreme Leader's office has arranged a Parliamentary outcome that guarantees it will have no problems with the Parliament as well as the President.
Khatami and Neda: Former President Mohammad Khatami is criticised for his "betrayal" in voting in Friday's elections
See also Iran Special Analysis: The "Invented" Election
Iran Opinion: Elections, Power, and Political War in Tehran
The Latest from Iran (2 March): The Parliamentary Elections
2225 GMT: Khatami Watch. Reformist journalist Hussain Nooraninejad, a close friend of former President Mohammad Khatami, has written on his Facebook page:
Today, I spent an hour with Khatami and asked him about his voting. The first thing Khatami said in reply was, "he decision was very hard. I know I have upset a lot of friends and youth, but I had received a number of worrying news in the last two days about extremists having some plans, and I hope I have ruined their plan by my vote."
Khatami has said that on his vote paper, he has written “Islamic Republic”.
Nooraninejad said Khatami will have a "direct dialogue" with people in the near-future to "clear up some of the misunderstanding".
Former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi has said, "I assure you that Khatami has not voted to make the regime happy because the regime will not do any good to him....The decision of Khatami to vote is one of his wisest decisions. [The reason] will be clear in the near future."
To modify Voltaire's famous statement about God, "if the 60% turnout did not exist, it would have to be invented". Beyond the battles within the establishment that will soon re-emerge --- reduced to "Supreme Leader v. Ahmadinejad", but going far beyond this amongst the conservative and principlist factions and politicians --- the immediate demand on the regime was to establish its legitimacy.
The truth is that we will never know exactly how many Iranians --- amidst economic problems, worries over corruption and mismanagement, political in-fighting, restrictions on dissent and communications, imprisonments and harassments --- decided that voting might make a difference.
What we do know is that Iranian authorities went to great lengths to set up and control the show.
Maya Neyestani on today's "historic" election
See also Iran Special: A Beginner's Guide to Today's Parliamentary Elections
Iran Snap Analysis: So Who is "Winning" These Elections?
The Latest from Iran (1 March): The Issue Is Legitimacy
2055 GMT: ANd now a good-news story from the elections....
The 100-year-old man in Hamedan voted and died (see 1215 GMT), and the 95-year-old man in Damavand said, ""God, please accept this vote from me" and passed away (see 1645), but the 117-year-old man in Gonbad-e Qabus cast his ballot and lived.
2030 GMT: Well, I now have first-hand experience of how Iranian media handle news and analysis about this election.
Fars has not only noted my interview with BBC Persian; they are presenting it as if I had spoken to them. The headline is a selective extract, reflecting Fars' emphasis, of my comments, "The Western Leaders Don't Have a Clear Understanding of the Iranian Elections".
To be fair, Fars does fairly repeat some of my remarks, such as this election is too complex to be "Conservatives v. Clergy" and "The election is less about foreign policy than it is about Iran's internal affairs, economics, political accountability, and even topics such as judicial and legal rights."
What is interesting is what is left out or abbreviated. Fars' "interview" forgets to include my remarks that this election --- crucially --- is about the legitimacy of not only the Government but also the regime. And while the site does accurately mention my comment, "Reformists had no chance in this election of achieving some kind of political power", it indicates this was the main reason for their boycott of the vote --- conveniently omitting the rest of my analysis that the strategy was to raise question marks about the regime: "The message, following the 2009 Presidential election protests ie not just "Where is my vote?" but "Where is my government's responsibility?"
The regime's Get Out the Vote video, calling for a high turnout as a "hard slap" to Iran's enemies
See also The Latest from Iran (2 March): The Parliamentary Elections
Iran Snap Analysis: So Who is "Winning" These Elections?
THE VOTE
There are 290 seats in the Iranian Majlis, with members serving four-year terms. The chamber is officially led by a speaker.
There are no political parties as such; instead, blocs or factions can emerge. The Parliament is dominated by "conservatives" and "principlists", a term usually applied to the political wave since the election of President Ahmadinejad in 2005.
"Reformists", who were prominent in the legislature during the Presidency of Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), have been squeezed into a weak minority group of about 50-60 representatives. That number is likely to fall sharply in the next Majlis.
THE PROCESS
In today's first round, voters will choose names from dozens of lists of candidates. Allocated seats range from 30 for Tehran to one for Iran's smallest towns and villages, so a voter in the capital can write up to 30 names whereas the process elsewhere is far simpler.
Any candidate who receives more than 50% of the vote in his/her district is elected. Those who receive less than 50% but above a minimum standard will be on the ballot for a second round of voting in about two weeks.
THE MAJOR LISTS
This should be prefaced with the note that the lists are not as important today as the individuals who may or may not emerge from them.
See also Iran Snap Analysis: So Who is "Winning" These Elections?
The Latest from Iran (29 February): Playing the Numbers Game
Worker sweeps up campaign flyers, 25 February
1915 GMT: The "Engineers" in Syria. Seven Iranian engineers and technicians, abducted in Syria in December, have not been freed.
Last month, Iranian media reported that the men had been released, but Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister has said that they are still in the country, albeit in "perfect health".
The Free Syrian Army claims that five of the men are actually military snipers who were in Syria to assist President Assad's forces.
1845 GMT: Assurance of the Day. An Iranian official announces, “About 1,300 domestic and 350 foreign reporters working for 174 international media will provide coverage for the ninth election of the Majlis on Friday."
Which only leaves the question: how exactly will they be allowed to "provide coverage"?
A day before Iranians vote in Parliamentary elections, who's winning?
We do not know. And we will not know for some time to come. The messy truth beyond the easy narrative of Supreme Leader v. President Ahmadinejad is that the lists of candidates do not work that way, and the vote itself will not yield a "dominant" faction.
In the meantime, there is another, far different measure of "winner" and "loser". Almost all the factions and, more importantly, the Supreme Leader have put their chips on a high turnout in the vote. If that does not materialise, then all will suffer a blow to legitimacy.
Nikahang Kowsar "Defrosting the Elections" --- His journalist to the Supreme Leader, "Haji, be careful that your beard doesn't get burned!"
1829 GMT: All the President's Men. The one-year prison sentence of Ali Akbar Javanfekr, President Ahmadienjad’s media advisor, was confirmed today by an appellate court.
Javanfekr, who is also editor of Iran newspaper, was charged with “insulting the Supreme Leader” because of comments on his blog. He was also given a five-year ban from political activity.
1818 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Analyst Robin Mills notes the story, mentioned in Tuesday's Live Coverage, that Iran will accept gold rather than foreign currency with other countries because of sanctions. He adds, "Also willing to be paid in rice, used socks, etc."
Friday, March 9, 2012 at 5:38