The Latest from Iran (13 January): Beyond "Safe and Sane" --- Watching The Economy

President Ahmadinejad, on his trip to Cuba, pronounces that former Cuban leader Fidel Castro is "safe and sane"

See also Iran Snap Analysis: Are the Oil Sanctions Tightening on Tehran?
Iran Video: Scott Lucas on Al Jazeera - Tehran, China, & US Sanctions
The Latest from Iran (12 January): After the Tehran Bomb

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2015 GMT: Chest-Thumping.of the Day. Fars has picked up the story from The New York Times (see 0900 GMT) that the Obama Administration has sent a warning to the Supreme Leader that closing the Strait of Hormuz is a “red line” that will bring an American response.

1940 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has pulled back from the support of his Finance Minister, Jun Azumi (see separate analysis), for tougher sanctions by Tokyo on Iran.

Azumi had said Thursday, after talks with US Secretary of Treasury Tim Geithner, that Japan would reduce oil imports but Noda said today that the Government has yet to decide because businesses implications need to be considered. He described Azumi's remarks as a "personal view".

Noda continued, "Japan's basic stance is to resolve such matters diplomatically and peacefully. We need to consult with the business community, and we need to work out details with U.S. officials. We have to think about the implications for Japanese banks, and what measures are needed to resolve possible negative impact."

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The Latest from Iran (12 January): After the Tehran Bomb

2119 GMT: The Tehran Bomb. Fars reports that the Ministry of Interior refused permits for "student" protests, condemning the death of scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, in front of the British, German, and French Embassies today.

2049 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Anti-regime bloggers have launched a website in support of Mehdi Khazali, the physician and blogger detained once again this week.

Khazali has been seized three times since the 2009 Presidential election.

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Iran Feature: The Regime Isolates the Rafsanjani Family (Alem)

Faezeh HashemiLast week women's rights activist Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, was sentenced to six months in prison and a five-year ban on political, cultural, and media activities on charges of "spreading propaganda against the ruling system". The next day, the passports of the family of Mehdi Hashemi, Rafsanjani's son, were seized at Imam Khomeini International Airport outside Tehran.

Analyst Yasmin Alem speaks to The Iran Primer of the US Institute of Peace about the apparent campaign against the Rafsanjani family:

Why was Faezeh Rafsanjani charged?

Hashemi is the most politically active of former President Rafsanjani's children. She is a prominent social activist and leading Islamic feminist. A supporter of presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi in the 2009, she participated in a number of opposition rallies after the disputed poll. Ms. Rafsanjani was arrested and briefly detained by security forces on two occasions and barred from travelling abroad.

But her conviction on 2 January 2012 stems from an interview with Rooz Online, an opposition online newspaper. The interview was conducted after she was harassed by plainclothes security agents in April 2011. She told the opposition news website that “thugs and hooligans” were running the country.

She was subsequently accused and convicted of “insulting Islamic Republic officials". She was sentenced to six months in jail and banned from membership in any political organization as well as taking part in online and media activities for the next five years. Hashemi is likely to file an appeal. While she may be able to get her jail sentence overturned, the ban on her political activities is unlikely to be lifted.

Her sentence reflects the longstanding rivalry between two of the Islamic Republic’s founding fathers: former President Rafsanjani and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The two men have jockeyed for the upper hand—and the country’s political direction—since the death of revolutionary leader Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989. Hashemi’s conviction is another way for the supreme leader to pressure his political rival at a time when Rafsanjani is already at the nadir of his power.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Ahmadinejad's Men Strike 1st Blow in the Elections

0545 GMT: This will be a long, complex election process up to March's formal ballot for Parliamentary seats, but it looks like Ahmadinejad supporters can claim a victory in the first skirmish.

On Tuesday, news emerged of the first decisions on who would and would not be allowed to stand among the almost 5400 applicants. The regime spin is that more than 80% made it past the scrutiny of officials of the Ministry of Interior, but the significant story lay in the banning of at least 32 of Iran's 290 MPs.

The banned legislators are from across the political spectrum, but at least nine of them are united in their high-profile criticism of the Ahmadinejad Government. Examples include Ali Motahari, who has led the drive to question and possibly impeach the President; Hamidreza Katouzian, the head of the Energy Committee who has challenged the Government over the economy as well as the energy sector; and Dariush Ghanbari, a leading reformist voice.

Ghanbari's exclusion also raises an interesting dimension in the battle. The blocking of other reformists occurred even though the Supreme Leader's offices, as well as other factions within the establishment, have pressed hard for their participation, both through running for election and through voting on 2 March.

That can lead, I think, to only one conclusion. Those who put the black mark on the high-profile candidates were doing so in support of the President and, to some extent, in defiance of the wishes of the Supreme Leader's advisors.

The decision is far from final. The Guardian Council, the highest-level supervisor of the electoral process, will review all the applicants --- it can re-instate those who have been blocked, and it can ban others. Presuming that the Council is more in line with the wishes of Ayatollah Khamenei, and is not so amenable to Ahmadinejad's inner circle, MPs like Motahari and Ghanbari are likely to be approved.

But that is for later. For now, some people within the Iranian system have tried to make clear that the President is no lame duck and the Supreme Leader does not always get his way.

The Latest from Iran (10 January): "A Big Atomic Bomb Will Come Out"

1945 GMT: Elections Watch. Radio Zamaneh offers an overview of the MPs who have been blocked from running in Parliamentary elections in March. It notes that nine of them --- Ali Motahari, Hamidreza Katouzian, Alireza Mahjoub, Ali Abbaspour Tehrani, Fatemeh Ajorloo, Abbasali Noura, Peymon Forouzesh, Ghodratollah Alikhani and Dariush Ghanbari --- "have all been involved in strong criticism of the administration over the past year".

The Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Mohammadreza Bahonar, said disqualifying government critics among the Principlists from running for office is “narrow-minded". However, Tehran Governor Morteza Tamaddon insisted that the disqualifications were carried out according to the law and in the “interests of the sacred Islamic Republic system".

The nominees have four days to appeal the decision, with the final decision to be made by the Guardian Council.

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Iran Feature: The Bluster That Hides Human Rights (Ebadi)

It's clear that the leadership in Tehran is wracked by internal strife, with divisions deepening between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his allies. Iran's economy is in tatters, with inflation and unemployment soaring thanks to decades of mismanagement. While popular discontent is not at a high pitch as it was after the June 2009 presidential election, the fundamental conflict between citizens and dictators continues to smolder. Externally, the regime's defiance of international norms—such as this week threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz—have left Iran more isolated than ever.

In response, the regime has created an atmosphere of fear and intimidation, renewing its crackdown against students, civil society leaders and human-rights defenders like my friend and colleague Nasrin Sotoudeh.

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Iran Feature: Former Detainee Sarah Shourd "The Plight of Iranians and 3 Decades of US Foreign Policy"

Iranians understand what we went through better than anyone else. Their government is rapidly devolving into a neo-totalitarian regime that uses random arrests, assassinations, show trials, and executions to manipulate, silence dissent, and set an example. Many have experienced first-hand having a loved one, neighbor, or friend plucked out of their lives, imprisoned and even killed, sometimes for something as small as writing a blog.

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The Latest from Iran (26 December): The (Dis)Unity of Elections

Nikahang Kowsar portrays President Ahmadinejad's preparations for the Parliamentary elections in March

See also Iran Interview: Detained Mehdi Karroubi on "A Rigged and Forced Election Process"

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2115 GMT: Unity Watch. A short summary has been issued from today's meeting of the head of the three branch of Government --- President Ahmadinejad, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, and head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani (see 1038 GMT). It declares that the three men insisted on no red lines to eradicate financial corruption.

The language indicates a deliberate attempt to show unity despite tensions --- this summer, President Ahmadinejad warned his foes not to cross "red lines" and prosecute his advisors and minister, while both Ahmadinejad and his critics among conservatives and principlists have accused each other of links to corruption cases.

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The Latest from Iran (25 December): A Compliment for the Supreme Leader?

0755 GMT: Elections Watch. Yesterday we highlighted a statement by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a leader of the Islamic Constancy Front, positioning it before March's Parliamentary elections with declarations of loyalty to the Supreme Leader but support for the camp of President Ahmadinejad. An EA reader extends the analysis by noting Mesbah Yazdi's assault on the reformists, whom anti-Ahmadinejad conservatives are hoping to bring into the elections --- he summarises Yazdi's comments:

Reformists started the "deviations" right after [the Iran/Iraq] war, because they could not during the war. Reformists denounced velayat-e faqih [clerical supremacy] and started the separation of Islam from politics and democracy. We chose Ahmadinejad [in 2005] because he had the guts to run with Islamic slogans, unlike everyone else afraid of losing people's votes....The Constancy Front is worried, for the sake of "unity", that seditionists will be allowed to join as "principlists" and gain power again.

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The Latest from Iran (22 December): Tangoing Towards the Elections

Nikahang Kowsar on Ahmadinejad and the "dollar snake" of the currency crisis

See also Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader is Looking for A Few Good Reformists
Iran Snap Analysis: The Currency Falls --- What Does It Mean?
The Latest from Iran (21 December): It's The Economy, Mahmoud

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1831 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. The President might have declared this week that the Iranian economy is one of prosperity and growth, which all countries wish to emulate, but that does not mean that he is not on the lookout for some sacrifices. In a speech in east Tehran, he asked wealthy citizens to renounce their support payments for subsidy cuts. Meanwhile, he promised that the Government would ensure each family had a car.

Ahmadinejad did not say whether his request for deferred support payments is connected to reports that the Government is running a large deficit in the subsidy cuts programme.

1822 GMT: CyberWatch. IUS News, a website of hard-line Iranian students, reportedly knocked off-line earlier today, is unavailable.

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