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Entries in Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (451)

Monday
Nov212011

Iran Feature: So What Happened When Security Forces Tried to Arrest the President's Senior Advisor?

Now see Iran Special Analysis: The Security Forces Cross Ahmadinejad's "Red Line"


Ali Akbar Javenfekr (left) with President AhmadinejadRecreating the extraordinary story of the attempt by security forces to detain President Ahmadinejad's media advisor Ali Akbar Javanfekr, as they raided the offices of Iran, the newspaper he manages....

News broke this morning via Tabnak, linked to 2009 Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, that security forces used tear gas and wielded electric batons after Javanfekr's colleagues tried to stop his detention to serve a one-year prison sentence, imposed yesterday over an issue of the newspaper on hijab.

Click to read more ...

Friday
Nov182011

The Latest from Iran (18 November): Smoke and Politics

See also Iran Video and Analysis: 4-Point Guide to a Train-Wreck Discussion with Top Official Mohammad Javad Larijani
Iran Interview: UN's Special Rapporter on Human Rights to Tehran "Co-Operate With Me"
The Latest from Iran (17 November): The Regime Mobilises...for Occupy Wall Street


1628 GMT: The House Arrests. Mohammad Taghi Karroubi, the son of detained opposition figures Mehdi and Fatemeh Karroubi, has hit back at the claim of Mohammad Javad Larijani, a senior official in Iran's judiciary, that the strict house arrests were imposed after a judicial process.

The younger Karroubi said no legal documents were presented and that officials of the Ministry of Intelligence said the judiciary "has no say in this case".

1621 GMT: Bad Behaviour Watch. Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi has said that the Internet, mobile phones, and girl-boy relations are "general plagues" affecting Iran.

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Thursday
Nov172011

Iran Analysis: "The Supreme Leader Has Tied His Fate to That of Ahmadinejad" (Siavashi)

Ahmadinejad's domestic opponents, including the Supreme Leader would like to contain Ahmadinejad, and I am certain that if it was politically expedient or even possible, they would have already done so.

The problem for the Supreme Leader, is that he made some judgement calls which have reduced his options. He has essentlally cornered himself. He cannot get rid of Ahmadinejad without the potential of incurring potentially fatal damage to his own reputation.

Ayatollah Khamenei's fate is, in this way, tied to Ahmadinejad's.

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Wednesday
Nov162011

The Latest from Iran (16 November): Non-Appearances

A Green Movement poster opposing any military attack on Iran

See also Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad --- A Phoenix Rising from the Ashes?
The Latest from Iran (15 November): After the Explosion


2100 GMT: The Explosion. Digarban goes back into the question of the death toll of Saturday's blast at the Revolutionary Guards base and --- contrary to the latest claim of the Guards of 17 deaths --- comes up with the names of 36 people who were killed.

The list is taken from accounts in IRNA, Fars, and Mehr.

2050 GMT: CrimeStoppers. MP Hosein Harati has declared that the Supreme Leader is the leader of the movement preventing crime in Iran.

If so, Ayatollah Khamenei has gone a big task --- Harati said that, in a country of 75 million people, there are 10 million criminal files.

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Wednesday
Nov162011

Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad --- A Phoenix Rising from the Ashes?

Ahmadinejad may slip some of the immediate shackles. As we noted yesterday, he is no mug, with a tenacity and determination that has prevailed over many of his political foes. But he faces checks at every turn. His economic high-point of the subsidy cuts packages has quickly descended, amidst problems with the programme, wider economic tensions, and the $2.6 billion bank fraud. His play for renewed discussions with the US appears to be going nowhere fast (thanks to both the US and to his domestic opponents). And his political base is shrinking rather than than expanding.

The pendulum does not swing that far. Rocky does not throw a climactic punch. The Phoenix does not rise.

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Tuesday
Nov152011

The Latest from Iran (15 November): After the Explosion

The Supreme Leader at the funeral of Revolutionary Guards personnel killed in a Saturday explosion

See also Iran Gift Idea Special: The Ahmadinejad Teapot
The Latest from Iran (14 November): Playing the Foreign Card


2115 GMT: Opposition Watch. The opposition website Rah-e Sabz, which appealed last month for funds, has said that it will remain live, thanks to the help and encouragement of supporters.

2110 GMT: Clerical Intervention. Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, in greetings to the people of Iran and opposition leaders for Eid Ghadir, has demanded the release of political prisoners and free speech.

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Sunday
Nov132011

The Latest from Iran (13 November): An Explosion at a Military Base

2045 GMT: The Explosion. With the Revolutionary Guards "correcting" news about the blast at its Malard base twice within 24 hrs, Asr-e Iran has jabbed at the censorship and "informational shame".

2030 GMT: Corruption Watch. Iran's Inspector General Mostafa Pourmohammadi has said that the effects of financial corruption are worse than sanctions.

Hossein Fadayi of Parliament's Article 90 Commission offers a far different message: combating corruption is proceeding reasonably, and the Supreme Leader and his children are "the cleanest people".

Click to read more ...

Monday
Nov072011

Iran Special: Decoding Ahmadinejad --- Did He Just Declare the "Final Confrontation" Within the Establishment?

Over the last 48 hours, reports have emerged of an extraordinary speech by President Ahmadinejad to a group of his backers, the Supporters of Islamic Revolution Dialogue, in Tehran.

Our initial reaction was "Did he really say that?" And that as the reports built in their detail, we began to consider, "If he did say that, what does it mean for the conflict inside the Iranian system?"

For --- if the reports are true --- the President's speech was no less than a proclamation of all-out political conflict with his rivals, including a possible showdown with some in the camp of the Supreme Leader. That would explain why "mainstream" Iranian outlets only published parts of the statement, leaving out the most provocative challenges.

We are still cautious. Did the pro-Ahmadinejad website, <em>Dolat-e Ma</em>, which has published the transcript of the speech, get it right through its reporter on the scene? Is there exaggeration for effect, perhaps to scare Ahmadinejad's opponents?

Then again, no one from the President's office or amongst his media backers has denied the remarks. So we assess the significance of Ahmadinejad's declaration of a "final confrontation"...

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Thursday
Nov032011

The Latest from Iran (3 November): Threats, Threats, More Threats


2135 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. More on the alleged Presidential assault on his rivals from the pro-Ahmadinejad site Dolate Ma --- the President reportedly said he could reveal 10% of his information now and 25% in the future, but it was "not advisable" to disclose the rest.

Ahmadinejad added that the "day of regret is near" and said his foes are going to "apologise for accusing the Government": "The current situation is not normal; we are approaching the final showdown."

As for the current financial scandal, including the $2.6 billion bank embezzlement, the President said "people were dissatisfied" with those who "came barefoot from the south of town [the south of Tehran is the poorer section of the capital] and are billionaires now".

Ahmadinejad continued, "If you allow me to handle them in my way, I will rebuke [the political wrongdoers in 1 month. Even Europe and the US together can't bring the Government to its knees."

And now the sting in the tail, of interest to those who specialise in following the in-fighting in Tehran. Ahmadinejad said, "In 2009 'they' wanted to congratulate the opposition [on victory in the Presidential election]."

And who does Ahmadinejad mean by 'they'? Well, soon after the election, it was claimed --- by the camp of opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi and later by other politicians --- that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani had told Mousavi on Election Day that he won the vote. Other reports said the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, also sent the message.

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Wednesday
Nov022011

Iran Analysis: Breathing Space for Ahmadinejad after the Impeachment Vote? (Not Quite.)

So, at the end of the political drama on Tuesday in Parliament, Minister of Economy Shamseddin Hosseini avoided impeachment by a 141-93 vote. 

But is that a resounding victory in Iran's internal conflict for President Ahmadinejad?

The stakes were important enough for Ahmadinejad to make a personal appearance, telling lawmakers that Hosseini had to be retained for the sake of unity amidst the serious enemy threats to Tehran. 

Yet even that address --- despite a short video showing both the President's defiance and his attempt to sell his speech with humour and levity --- offered hostages to fortune. Ahmadinejad avoided the details of the $2.6 billion fraud case with the diversion that there were "structural problems" in the case against Hosseini. His ploy of invoking the enemy threat was clumsy --- in the same speech, he was also trying to maintain the line that the enemy's capitalist system was collapsing. Thomas Erdbrink was spot-on to note the President's stumble when he admitted, contrary to Iranian propaganda, that the sanctions were having a marked effect on the banking sector.

More importantly, Ahmadinejead's Minister survived --- at least in the public performance --- not because of Ahmadinejad but by a grand gesture by the President's sometimes rival and foe, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani. It was he, in what he called an extraordinary intervention, who asked MPs to give the Minister of Economy another chance, pending the judicial investigation into the fraud. And he wrapped that initiative, and himself, in the cloak of the Supreme Leader, invoking Ayatollah Khamenei's title to call for Hosseini's reprieve.

That step is politically more significant than The Wall Street Journal's emphasis on the five speeches against Hosseini and "only one" for the Minister. Ali Larijani was claiming the Solomon role --- as the Supreme Leader's representative, of course --- and he was also ensuring that the judiciary, under the command of his brother Sadegh, buttressed its position. After all, it is that body which now gets to make the political as well as the legal decisions over the bank fraud.

Beyond there may be a bigger story to analyse. Larijani's step, like Ahmadinejad's speech, can only be dissected for elements of weakness. The decoded message is that the Iranian system --- far bigger than Hosseini or Ahmadinejad --- was the decisive issue. An impeachment vote might have struck at the President, but it also would have given the impression of weakness and even fragmentation in the regime. So in the end, converging with Ahmadinejad's call for unity, the Speaker of Parliament (and, he was saying, Ayatollah Khamenei), said critical MPs needed to back away --- while remaining content that the power of salvation was with the system, not the President.

There may be a few days of catching breath in Tehran's politics, but by no means it is a breathing space for President Ahmadinejad. The theme of this year has been the attempts by other factions in the establishment --- Parliament, the judiciary, politicians, the Revolutionary Guards, and, often silently, the Supreme Leader --- to contain the President.

Yesterday, despite the impeachment numbers and Ahmadinejad's laughter, was just one tightening of the net.

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