The Latest from Iran (13 January): Beyond "Safe and Sane" --- Watching The Economy

President Ahmadinejad, on his trip to Cuba, pronounces that former Cuban leader Fidel Castro is "safe and sane"

See also Iran Snap Analysis: Are the Oil Sanctions Tightening on Tehran?
Iran Video: Scott Lucas on Al Jazeera - Tehran, China, & US Sanctions
The Latest from Iran (12 January): After the Tehran Bomb

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2015 GMT: Chest-Thumping.of the Day. Fars has picked up the story from The New York Times (see 0900 GMT) that the Obama Administration has sent a warning to the Supreme Leader that closing the Strait of Hormuz is a “red line” that will bring an American response.

1940 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has pulled back from the support of his Finance Minister, Jun Azumi (see separate analysis), for tougher sanctions by Tokyo on Iran.

Azumi had said Thursday, after talks with US Secretary of Treasury Tim Geithner, that Japan would reduce oil imports but Noda said today that the Government has yet to decide because businesses implications need to be considered. He described Azumi's remarks as a "personal view".

Noda continued, "Japan's basic stance is to resolve such matters diplomatically and peacefully. We need to consult with the business community, and we need to work out details with U.S. officials. We have to think about the implications for Japanese banks, and what measures are needed to resolve possible negative impact."

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Wikileaks and Cuba 2009: Should the US Support Regime Change? (No.)

By April 2009, the long-term leader of Cuba, Fidel Castro, had been permanently incapacitated by illness. His brother Raul had taken over as head of the Government which, despite the uncertainty, had maintained its authority.

The US Interests Section in Havana had a long look at the situation to assess the possibility that dissidents could remove the Castro Government. What they saw was bleak: "There are few if any dissidents who have a political vision that could be applied to future governance....The dissident movement is heavily penetrated by state security. This penetration allows the government to play on the egos and personal feuds that are normal in any society, and exacerbate the divisions that would exist naturally among the dissidents."

So the US diplomats concluded, "We will need to look elsewhere, including within the government itself, to spot the most likely successors to the Castro regime."

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China This Week: Sino-Russian Partnership; Cooperation With EU, Beijing Going to the Moon

China, Russia Talk Energy, Security, Finance:  China and Russia have issued a joint statement on strategic partnership in energy. 

The two sides pledged cooperation on crude oil, natural gas, coal, electric power, nuclear energy, energy efficiency, and renewable energy, and they looked for a quick consensus on the construction of the Sino-Russian natural gas pipeline. The two sides agreed to promote the development of coal mines, supported by railway and port construction, and to work together on trading of electric power and grid enhancement.

In a statement signed by Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Beijing and Moscow called on Asian and Pacific countries to step up efforts to maintain regional security and stability amid mounting threats and challenges in the Asia-Pacific region.

Both sides also agreed to expand bilateral financial cooperation, including mutual trading between the renminbi (RMB), the Chinese currency, and the ruble.

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