Wikileaks and Cuba 2009: Should the US Support Regime Change? (No.)

By April 2009, the long-term leader of Cuba, Fidel Castro, had been permanently incapacitated by illness. His brother Raul had taken over as head of the Government which, despite the uncertainty, had maintained its authority.

The US Interests Section in Havana had a long look at the situation to assess the possibility that dissidents could remove the Castro Government. What they saw was bleak: "There are few if any dissidents who have a political vision that could be applied to future governance....The dissident movement is heavily penetrated by state security. This penetration allows the government to play on the egos and personal feuds that are normal in any society, and exacerbate the divisions that would exist naturally among the dissidents."

So the US diplomats concluded, "We will need to look elsewhere, including within the government itself, to spot the most likely successors to the Castro regime."

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