US Elections: The Power of Money and Democrat Losses in Congress (and the White House?)

Democrats are becoming resigned to losing heavily in November. And, as politicians are apt to do, they are looking for someone other than themselves to blame. The argument, put out by Obama himself, runs that the electorate would fully support progressive policies if only the message was not insidiously sabotaged by the dirty campaign money of wealthy individuals and big business. 

The Citizens United ruling of the Supreme Court, and the resulting spending during this election, has only reinforced this liberal worldview. So although the Democrats may have given up on this election, expect the real fireworks to begin next year as they try to fend off the assault of a Sarah Palin or Mike Huckerbee, bankrolled by conservative 501 groups, on the reelection bid of President Obama. The current president may like to present himself as the representative of a new transparent politics, but if he doesn’t get down and dirty next year, come January 2013 he will find himself on the outside looking in.

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Afghanistan Analysis: US Military Asserting Dominance over White House Again?

Last week, the White House announced that National Security Advisor James Jones would be replaced later this month by the current deputy advisor, Tom Donilon.

Jones, a retired Marine General, had been wounded in a number of bureaucratic encounters over 20 months. Notable amongst these was his attempt to limit the military's demands for more and more US troops in Afghanistan. It was Jones, for example, who carried the message to Kabul in summer 2009 that the President would ask, "WTF?", if his commanders asked for another escalation, only months after getting additional forces. Yet by December, that same President was agreeing to another injection of 30,000 soldiers.

Well before that incident, the military had set out its tactics of briefing the press against White House attempts to check a bolstered intervention. So it was intriguing to see what happened 72 hours after Donilon, who is also seen by many as a sceptic of the ramped-up military effort, was named as Jones' successor.

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Pakistan and US: Border Opened to NATO Tankers But Tensions Continue (Cole)

The Pakistani government has decided to reopen the Torkham border crossing between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the route whereby 70 percent of US/NATO supplies and 40 percent of fuel are brought by truck into Afghanistan. The Pakistani Frontier Corps and the Afghanistan National Army began work Sunday to coordinate the clearing of the huge backlog of trucks that have been stuck at the crossing for a week and a half. Some reports say that the opening is expected to occur on Monday.

Pakistan closed the crossing to trucks transporting goods for NATO & the US after a September 30 incident in which US helicopter gunships made incursions into Pakistani territory and then fired missiles at a Frontiers Corps checkpoint, apparently mistaking the scouts for Taliban. Two scouts were killed and four wounded. Pakistani nerves were already raw because of unmanned drone strikes on Pakistani territory.

US President Barack Obama and Gen. David Petraeus appear to have decided to push for more hot pursuit missions into Pakistan from Afghanistan, and this decision was absolutely unacceptable to the Pakistani military, as well as to the public.

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Afghanistan: Endorsing the Pentagon's "Forever War" (Engelhardt)

Tom Engelhardt writes for TomDispatch:

Sometimes it’s the little things in the big stories that catch your eye.  On Monday, the Washington Post ran the first of three pieces adapted from Bob Woodward’s new book Obama’s Wars, a vivid account of the way the U.S. high command boxed the Commander-in-Chief into the smallest of Afghan corners.  As an illustration, the Post included a graphic the military offered President Obama at a key November 2009 meeting to review war policy.  It caught in a nutshell the favored “solution” to the Afghan War of those in charge of fighting it --- Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General David Petraeus, then-Centcom commander, General Stanley McChrystal, then-Afghan War commander, and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, among others.

Labeled “Alternative Mission in Afghanistan,” it’s a classic of visual wish fulfillment.  Atop it is a soaring green line that represents the growing strength of the notoriously underwhelming “Afghan Forces,” military and police, as they move toward a theoretical goal of 400,000 -- an unlikely “end state” given present desertion rates.  Underneath that green trajectory of putative success is a modest, herky-jerky blue curving line, representing the 40,000 U.S. troops Gates, Petraeus, Mullen, and company were pressuring the president to surge into Afghanistan.

The eye-catching detail, however, was the dating on the chart.  Sometime between 2013 and 2016, according to a hesitant dotted white line (that left plenty of room for error), those U.S. surge forces would be drawn down radically enough to dip somewhere below -- don’t gasp -- the 68,000 level.  In other words, three to six years from now, if all went as planned -- a radical unlikelihood, given the Afghan War so far -- the U.S. might be back close to the force levels of early 2009, before the President’s second surge was launched.

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China Economy Weekly: Currrency and Trade Arguments, Rare Earths and Japan, Banks in Taiwan

Currency Issues:  Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has there was no basis for the drastic appreciation of the yuan, the Chinese currency. He added the issue was an economic one and must not be politicized.

Critics have claimed that China keeps the level of the yuan low to win competitive advantages in trade. However, Wen said, there was no connection.

The yuan appreciated 55.2% from January 1994 to July 2010. Meanwhile, major currencies of the world had depreciated, with the US dollar dropping 2.5%, the euro 3.8% and the Japanese yen 19.5%.

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Israel-Palestine: What the US Should Do Now on Settlements (Walt)

If I were President Obama (and you can all be glad I'm not), I'd call my entire Middle East team into the Oval office for a little chat. Here's what I'd say:

"I made a promise to the American people, and to the world, that we would achieve 'two states for two peoples' during my first term. When I was in Cairo more than a year ago, I said this goal was in "America's interest, Israel's interest, the Palestinians' interest, and the world's interest." And I meant it. I trusted each of you to help me bring that goal about, and I've taken your advice for over twenty months. Let me be clear: it isn't working, and I'm not one who is satisfied with failure. Nor am I going to reward it. So I am telling each of you now: If you can't help me get this deal done within one year, I'm going to fire every one of you and get some new faces in here."

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Afghanistan Special: Bob Woodward, The US Military, and the White House's Crocodile Tears (Lucas)

I'm sorry but this is getting ridiculous. 

The Washington Post, in its continuing push of its reporter Bob Woodward's Obama Wars, publishes the first of three extracts this morning, "Military Thwarted President Seeking Choice in Afghanistan".

At some point someone has to expose the exposure and reveal the costly game that is going on here. Bob Woodward is not going to do it, because to do so would cut off his access and his books. President Obama's advisors are not going to do it because it would reveal weakness beyond the "wise compromise" they wave so furiously in Woodward's account. And the US military certainly are not going to do it because it would pull back the curtain on their triumph over the White House and the person who is supposedly their Commander-in-Chief.

I am against the US military intervention in Afghanistan. But, if it is going to happen, I would at least appreciate that it be done honestly and without these crocodile tears. I would like a President who says forthrightly, "This is what we are doing," rather than one whose advisors, over the following weeks and months, whisper to their favoured correspondent, "We didn't really like this but the military was so mean. What could we do?" 

You want sympathy, boys? Go find Oprah.

And Mr President: come out from behind your whispering staff. Face your military. Command or admit that you no longer command.

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The Latest from Iran (24 September): Back to Life, Back to Reality

1315 GMT: A Rafsanjani Move on Political Prisoners? Rooz Online offers an English translation of its article on former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's 3 1/2-hour meeting this week with families of political prisoners. It provides this intriguing quote from Rafsanjani, taken from his website, on the dynamics of a visit to the Supreme Leader:

If I communicate your requests to government authorities, I am not sure I will get a positive response and in fact this may produce the opposite response....The esteemed leader had issued suitable instructions regarding the speedy examination of the prisoners’ cases and also on respecting their legal rights, which could solve many of the current problems....

I hope that this will not be a futile effort.

What makes this intriguing --- and Rooz notes this --- is that it is a follow-up to Rafsanjani's meeting last month with Ayatollah Khamenei, in which he directly handed the Supreme Leader files of political prisoners, insisting to Khamenei's office that he had to give them to the Supreme Leader personally.

As we later reported from reliable sources in Iran, Khamenei refused to look at the files in front of Rafsanjani. The frustrated former President later told members of his Kargozaran Party, "I won't bear this situation."

So is this a renewed attempt by Rafsanjani to "push" the Supreme Leader?

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US Politics: The "Progressive" Battles of the Democrats and the "Pledge" of the Republicans (Haddigan)

The next days will see the drawing of battle lines that will dominate the campaign trail in the weeks before November. Democrats will argue Republican gains in Congress will destroy any hope of progressive change in the next two years, pointing their voters to the measures defeated in Congress this week. Republicans will counter with the now-famous mantra, even if it was created by a Democrat, "It’s the economy, stupid", and they will remind their supporters that victories will help them push back against the unpopular reforms that Obama has managed to achieve.

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US Politics Shocker: 1 in 5 Americans Think Obama is a Cactus (The Onion)

Not Barack ObamaThe Onion reports:

According to a poll released Tuesday, nearly 20 percent of U.S. citizens now believe Barack Obama is a cactus, the most Americans to identify the president as a water- retaining desert plant since he took office.

The poll, conducted by the Pew Research Center, found a sharp rise in the number of Americans who say they firmly believe Obama was either born a cactus, became a cactus during his youth, or has questionable links to the Cactaceae family.

"We asked people of varying races, ages, and backgrounds the same question: 'What is President Barack Obama?'" Pew spokeswoman Jodi Miller told reporters. "And a fifth of them responded, 'A cactus.'"

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