US Elections Analysis: A Foreign Policy Debate Which Will Not Mean That Much

See also EA Video Special: How to Win Presidential Debate Buzzword Bingo....
US Elections Analysis: The "Fiscal Cliff" and the Races for the New Congress

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There is little that either candidate can say tonight which will sway the opinion of the wavering voters who will decide this election. Neither Obama or Romney has a foreign policy of details and concrete proposals that is distinctive. If there is the perception that each would act differently in the event of a major crisis, but that impression is already factored into the calculations of the "undecided".

The debate is not irrelevant, especially if Romney loses some of the “Presidential” aura he won in Denver. But the reality is that, if the Republican simply gives the appearance of a resolute leader, this election returns on Tuesday morning to a two-week battle to persuade the cluster of undecided voters, in a few key states, to make up their minds based on the economic and social agenda of the "better" candidate.

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EA Video Special: How to Win Presidential Debate Buzzword Bingo....

See also US Elections Analysis: A Foreign Policy Debate Which Will Not Mean That Much
US Elections Video: Obama or Romney? And Does It Make Any Difference? --- "Seminar" at the University of Birmingham

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As Barack Obama and Mitt Romney square off in the third and final Presidential debate tonight, devoted to questions on foreign policy, EA gives you the words that will ensure you're a winner in Buzzword Bingo.

God, leadership, terrorism, Libya, and Al Qa'eda --- they're all here in six minutes and your cut-out and keep playing card:

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US Elections Video: Obama or Romney? And Does It Make Any Difference? --- "Seminar" at the University of Birmingham

On Wednesday, I joined Dr Adam Quinn and Ph.D. candidate Jonna Nyman to discuss the state of the US Presidential election and what lay ahead for domestic and foreign policy over the next four years.

While all of us agreed that an Obama victory was likely, the discussion of the issues at home and abroad led to some notable expressions of concern, from the threat to health care in the US to conflicts over social issues to a possible war with Iran:

EA Video Analysis: How to Become an Expert on US Presidential Election --- It's Down to 6 States

Obama? Romney? A Tie?

In Part 3 of How to Become an Expert, we explain how the US Presidential election is now down to six states --- Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada --- and how Barack Obama, despite his stumble after the 1st Presidential Debate, still holds the advantage.

[Since we filmed this on Tuesday, Obama has bounced back with a strong performance in the 2nd Debate, while Mitt Romney faltered. Fortunately for us, the President's recovery in the polls since then --- he is now a 70% favourite to hold the White House, according to FiveThirtyEight --- bolsters our analysis.]

Catching up? Watch Parts 1 and 2 of How to Become an Expert on EA's Video Channel.

US Politics Analysis: Obama Rebounds, Romney Stumbles

See also US Politics Video: The 2nd Obama-Romney Debate
EA Video Analysis: How to Use American Deaths to Win a Presidential Election

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EA's Scott Lucas and Lee Haddigan write for The Hill

Forget policy and details. Last night's presidential town hall debate at Hofstra University in New York was about each candidate's acting in the political theatre. Could President Obama atone for his lackluster display in the first debate without appearing too aggressive? Could Mitt Romney maintain the aura from the first debate in Denver of an authentic presidential alternative?

We had answers within the 90 minutes.“Can Obama Rebound?” is now the question of the past. “Can Romney Re-surge?” takes over.

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US Politics Video: The 2nd Obama-Romney Debate

Lee Haddigan and I will be posting a special analysis later today of the Town Hall Meeting debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

In the meantime, here is the full 90 minutes. A transcript is available via The Washington Post.

EA Video Analysis: US Elections --- How You Can Become Commander-in-Chief Like Mitt Romney

Using Mitt Romney's speech last week at Virginia Military Institute on US foreign and military policy, we explain how you too can become Commander-in-Chief of the United States of America (one hint --- say "Al Qa'eda" a lot):

US Politics Feature: The Biggest Story --- and Danger --- of the Vice Presidential Debate

Full video of the debate between Vice President Joe Biden and Congressman Paul Ryan

See also EA Video Analysis: How to Become An Expert on the US Presidential Election (Part 2)

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For all the verbal combat, the encounter illuminated that the differences between an Obama Administration and a Romney alternative are not as great as advertised.

That was particularly evident on foreign policy, where the concern for many is that a Romney presidency will lead to another misguided overseas adventure. I doubt that concern was eased last night, but at the same time, the debate was notable for how Ryan and Biden effectively converged on a "get tough" posture.

There was nothing on China or Russia, let alone the vanished continents of South America and Africa, and --- compare this to past campaigns --- nothing on Europe and NATO. The international economy, arguably the most important issue right now, did not make even a cameo appearance. Instead, this was a conversation about who could be the harder man over the Middle East and Iran.

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EA Video Analysis: How to Become An Expert on the US Presidential Election (Part 2)

See also EA Video Analysis: How to Become An Expert on the US Presidential Election (Part 1)
US Politics Special: The "Elite Eight" States That Will Decide The Presidential Election

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In Part 2 of our guide --- complete with illustrations --- on how you can become a top pundit on the US Presidential election, we take a look at the "Elite Eight" states that will determine who goes to the White House.

A note of caution, even as you climb the Expert's ladder, about comment during a volatile campaign: since we filmed this on Tuesday, the polls have swung towards challenger Mitt Romney. The basics of the analysis are still the same --- Romney has to win almost all the Elite Eight to become President --- but his chances of doing so are much better than they were before the 1st Presidential debate.

The Latest from Israel-Palestine (12 October): What Will Israeli Elections Bring?

See also The Latest from Turkey (12 October): Ankara's Dangerous Game with Moscow
Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Feuding About a Plane --- Meanwhile, 200+ Die

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1645 GMT: After Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah' acknowledged that the group sent the downed drone into Israeli airspace, the Gaza-based Palestinian groups praised Hezbollah.

Al-Mujahideen Brigades described Hezbollah's operation as "unprecedented", whilst Salah al-din Brigades, the military wing of the Popular Resistance Committees, said Hezbollah's improved capabilities would strengthen the resolve of the Palestinian people and deter Israel from attacking them and their holy places.

1430 GMT: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denies that he agreed on Israel giving up the Golan Heights in return of a peace deal in the US-mediated secret talks with the Assad regime.

1045 GMT: Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Ehud Barak had secret talks with the Assad Bashar government in the late 2010. It is claimed that Israeli leaders agreed to a full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights in exchange for a peace agreement.

In September 2010, it was Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan who publicly asked the Netanyahu government to restart indirect talks between Israel and Syria, through the Turkish mediation. However, the Israeli government denied such reports.

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