Iran Analysis: The Regime Arrests Mousavi and Karroubi in the Race Between Fear and Hope

It was going to happen. For the past 20 months, not a day has gone by without the opposition voicing the fear that the Green Movement’s two leading figures would be arrested. Now those concerns have been borne out, as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, along with their wives and political activists Zahra Rahnavard and Fatemeh Karroubi, were detained. But whether they were arrested now or 20 months ago makes little difference.

The two men, holed up in their homes and guarded by security forces, already had very little freedom of movement; they have effectively been under house arrest for the past several months. So there is no shock in their transfer to a house of detention, run by the Ministry of Intelligence and/or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Instead, the significance lies elsewhere, as an indication of how the political situation has changed on the ground in Iran.

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Iran Analysis: Can the Opposition Challenge the Regime? (Eshraghi v. Lucas)

Eshraghi: "As people cast around for the root cause of Iran's woes, no one is offering a convincing solution. Opposition activity is confined to reacting post factum to what the regime does."

Lucas: "The public revival through the marches is merely the sign that the opposition is still alive. The challenge will be to turn that into plans and objectives for change. That is a daunting challenge, but --- contrary to Esraghi's wayward pronouncement, 'Opposition activity is confined...to what the regime does' --- it is being pursued."

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Iran Special: The Regime Debates "Arrest Mousavi and Karroubi?"

Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi on State TV on Thursday night

An informed source and former Iranian government official [said]...that right after the February 14 protests, Heydar Moslehi, Iran's intelligence minister, attended a meeting with the Supreme Leader in which he asked for permission to arrest Karroubi and Mousavi. At the meeting, however, Khamenei criticized the Ministry of Information [Intelligence] for its reports, asking why its analysis of popular participation in the gatherings had been so wrong.

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From Tunisia/Egypt to Libya/Iran: Notes of Caution on Sudden Change

Events will move to the breaking point, when someone holds a gun to someone else's head, and everyone is forced to react. With Mir Hossein Mousavi under house arrest, Mehdi Karroubi under the constant guard of security forces in his own home, Hashemi Rafsanjani's power being challenged on the Assembly of Experts, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's term expiring, and the 2009 spirit of dissent reviving, the question is when that point is reached.

The earthquakes of Egypt and Tunisia built up for a long time on softer ground. It has taken, and will take, much longer for the fault lines to break the foundations of Iran's government. When it happens, the regime is likely to go quickly, and like a high-magnitude earthquake, the results will be felt far and wide.

We're already feeling the foreshocks, but the whole world is waiting for the big one.

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Iran Special: Protest --- From Tunisia to Egypt to the Green Movement (The Newest Deal)

As a special for today, amidst the possibility of opposition marches we post The Newest Deal's analysis of protest in North Africa, the Middle East, and Iran:

Despite what the movement's leaders, Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, are forced to say publicly, this is no longer a struggle merely aimed at "reforming" the existing system. Those days are over, and both Mousavi and Karoubi likely recognize this in private.

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Iran Special Analysis: After 25 Bahman's Success, The Challenges for the Green Movement (Tehrani)

Faced with the heavy-handed response by the authorities, the question that lies ahead for the both Mousavi and Karroubi is pressing: Should they finally give up all pretence of compromise and resolution of conflict within the boundaries of the Islamic Republic and their reluctance to engage in a full-frontal confrontation with all elements of the regime, Khamenei included? Should they start to question the authority and wisdom of the Supreme Leader directly, as strongly requested by the protestors in the streets, or should they keep pressing with strategies which have been unsuccessful so far?

The rallies of 25 Bahman certainly blew the "breath of life" --- to borrow Karroubi's phrase --- into a stagnant Green movement, but it also brought to the fore compelling questions which need carefully-crafted answers.

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Protest Special: Why Tunisia Can But Iran Can't (Eshraghi)

The surprising rapidity with which Tunisians unseated President Zine el-Abidin Ben Ali has been watched keenly in Iran, not least by the political opposition known as the Green Movement.

As Iranian blogs and Facebook messages abound with the punning phrase, “Tounes tounes, Iran na-tounes” –-- meaning “Tunisia could, Iran couldn’t” --- there has also been sober reflection on why this was the case; why the massive protests that followed the disputed presidential election of June 2009 came to nothing in the end.

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Iran Interview: Mousavi's Response to The Regime's Propaganda --- "Promoting Awareness Peacefully"

For us being Green does not mean that we want to turn everyone into our colour and into a single colour, the same way the totalitarians and authoritarians prescribe their own colour and view for everyone. Green is living side by side each other while understanding the differences, varieties in views, opinions and tastes. If the totalitarians and their propaganda try to highlight the gaps created in families and society, by accepting these differences, we must try to propose a prescription for peaceful living side by side with each other. Promoting awareness peacefully is the most effective weapon against violence and the spread of division and ignorance.

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Iran Feature: Assessing the Threat To Arrest Mousavi and Karroubi (Yeranian)

"On the one hand the regime has consistently said since the last presidential election that the protesters, that the Green movement, are a bunch of street hooligans, they're small in number, they're insignificant, we've crushed them, it's over," said Hashemi. "But, on the other hand, seemingly, every single week, a high member of the Iranian regime is speaking out and condemning and raising new charges against the Green Movement. So, if the Green movement is insignificant, is dead, is crushed, why do you constantly speak about them?"

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WikiLeaks, Iran, and the Green Movement: The Predictions of Iraq's President

Commenting a week after the demonstrations on 27 December 2009 and the regime's mobilisation of support three days later, Talabani assesses, "Tt was not that the Iranian regime was weak, but rather that the opposing side was strong....Whereas the demonstrations at first were attacking Iranian President Ahmadinejad, they have now shifted to being against Supreme Leader Khamenei."

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